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  • #21
  • Apr 3, 2026 6:45am Apr 3, 2026 6:45am
Quoting backtrex
One thing I've learned after 5 years of backtesting forex strategies: most traders don't realize their indicators are repainting. Here's the issue. When you use close[0] (the current bar's close) in your strategy logic, the value changes with every tick until the bar closes. So your backtest sees the final close, but in live trading you'd be entering on a value that hasn't settled yet. The fix is simple: always reference close[1] (the previous confirmed bar). Same for any indicator that derives from price. RSI(close, 14) should be RSI(close[1],...

Thank you for your message.

It seems this is not quite about us, but about other tests.

We generally do not use indicators at all.

Regarding indicators and the numerical advantage they actually provide — one could talk about this a lot. To put it briefly: most large-scale studies and backtests show that the edge provided by various indicators over the basic 50/50 binomial probability is usually only about 5%, sometimes up to 10%. That means, on a large sample, the final accuracy typically ends up around 55–60% at best.

As we have already noted — our win rate is consistently 93%. There is a test that we haven’t turned off for more than a year, and after 30,000 lots it still maintains an accuracy above 93%.

So the main point is this: even a high win rate does not automatically translate into making money. We have already been convinced of this through our own testing. What can we say then about 60% accuracy and indicators that sometimes work and sometimes don’t?

In short, we didn’t even go down the path of indicators from the very beginning.

If you are referring to the open and close prices published in the TG channel — it’s even simpler. These are trading bots — separate modules. They receive a command from the AI and then contact the broker to place the lot at the price that was considered appropriate at that exact moment

And in general, about ticks, minutes, hours… I think you will agree — this flow is not really about open and close prices or highs and lows. These are just convenient slices of time for visualization. The linear numerical series of a quote (the ratio of a pair) itself is essentially a one-dimensional vector outside of time.
The future is determined solely by the present. More: ORASignal.com
  • #22
  • Edited 4:29am Apr 5, 2026 3:45am | Edited 4:29am
Monthly Performance Update – Model f9 (Pure AI Trading)

We've just generated fresh monthly statistics for one of our longest-running models.
The data presented below reflects only the trades taken autonomously by the AI (model f9) since its launch. Please note that the trades visible on Forex Factory are a mix — we occasionally add manual trades that follow the exact same logic as the AI.
Month after month, the equity growth remains remarkably steady. Moreover, the Profit Factor has stabilized around 4.0 when looking at the AI’s performance alone.
After discussing these numbers again with Grok, and hearing his evaluation, we fully agree with his assessment: results of this magnitude are extremely rare. From his perspective, such statistics are "elite-level" and he personally hasn’t seen anything comparable before.
Of course, we understand that most people seeing a 92–95% winrate and a Profit Factor near 4.0 will immediately think: “This must be fake, curve-fitted, or manipulated.”

We get it. After seeing hundreds of unrealistic screenshots, the 101st one naturally triggers skepticism.

Honestly, it’s even a bit amusing (without any arrogance) We are 100% certain that there is no manipulation or curve-fitting here. And yet, by showing such results, we involuntarily find ourselves grouped with those who usually fake these kinds of numbers — the ones who deliberately manufacture beautiful statistics because they need extremely high values to make their lies believable.
We fully understand this and treat it with a sense of humor, knowing that in our case, nothing is being manipulated.

We’re not going to try to convince anyone.

We will let the dry numbers and live results speak for themselves.
Moreover, the longer this stable and non-random performance continues (and we already have several months behind us), the closer the probability that this is just "beginner’s luck" or a statistical fluke approaches zero with every new reporting period.

Nobody knows what tomorrow will bring, but one thing is clear: statistics this consistent and non-random don’t usually just collapse overnight.
We’ll continue posting updates next week and see how it develops.
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  • #23
  • Apr 7, 2026 1:39am Apr 7, 2026 1:39am
Hello everyone!

During Good Friday and Easter Monday, trading volumes on Forex usually drop by 40–70% compared to average levels.
Taking into account current geopolitical risks, the whole week remains relatively quiet.
However, we did not turn off our AI
This is a real test of our machine’s intelligence ))
The market is a combination of structures + noise — pure chaos.

In the pictures below you can see two versions:

  1. Real EURUSD quotes
  2. Purely random data

The random one represents chaotic, random structures — where any trading would essentially be equal to a simple coin flip (heads or tails).

Can you tell which chart shows the real EURUSD price and which one is random?

This is exactly why it seems to us that without AI it is quite difficult to determine a reliable strategy on the markets. Possible, but difficult.
For us, the AI’s silence on certain days (especially days of really low activity) indicates that the market is currently at its most random and chaotic state, even though it may not look so obvious from the outside (see pictures).

This is yet another useful property of ORA AI.
Another piece of knowledge, a certain perspective that can be helpful to a trader following its work.

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  • #24
  • Edited 3:21am Apr 8, 2026 2:26am | Edited 3:21am
Yesterday we wrote about trading in conditions of low volume and unclear expectations, which our AI detects and chooses not to risk (understanding the situation strictly through calculation) by placing positions when any decision would be similar to trying to guess a coin toss. In other words, in such conditions it’s no longer a market, but a casino — except the losses on the market are much bigger than in a real casino.

Some people listen to advice from an AI with a win rate above 90%, while others (and this is the majority in the market) think it’s all just talk, ignoring the numerical results.

And now, by this morning, the correctness of the strategy “better to skip” has become clear.

On X we’re currently seeing how many people played this casino game, placing 5 or 10 lots based purely on feelings. How many still don’t understand why their TA let them down (is this really the first time?).

In short, we didn’t turn off the AI and we’re not turning it off — and the test of its intelligence has been passed once again

That’s why the Profit Factor remains positive.

Not because the AI predicts the future (that’s impossible).
But because it is free from human adventurism and gambling spirit )

P.S.
In a way, the AI has also taught me discipline )
A month and a half ago, the AI was placing long lots on GBPJPY for two days in a row, and everything was going well.
On the third day, the picture looked exactly the same — same setup in a flat, but the AI stayed silent. I decided to repeat the success of the previous days anyway.
As a result, I completely ruined a beautiful, exemplary account with my attempt to trade without the AI (even though the technical analysis and context seemed identical). And who would believe that it was the human who messed everything up, while the AI had been trading perfectly for months?
In the end, I was stuck with open positions for two weeks, and some of them even had to be closed at a loss.
Now I have a new rule:
If there’s no lot from the AI — no matter how nice the TA looks — to hell with the risk.
It sees something… okay… but why should I take the risk? After all, it’s not me who has a 90%+ win rate over thousands of lots
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  • #25
  • Apr 8, 2026 1:09pm Apr 8, 2026 1:09pm
Well, the market has finally woken up, and our AI immediately delivered some beautiful lots )
We also added our own positions.

It’s especially noticeable on GBP/CAD how well the AI sees changes in market structure.
It’s important to understand that in hindsight, everyone can see it, but before the future becomes known — spotting such moments is truly close to a miracle )

Everything is strictly reflected in the statistics and in our TG channel.

Moving forward!
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  • #26
  • Apr 9, 2026 6:38am Apr 9, 2026 6:38am
Here's a classic example of a "difficult" case. Yes, they are rare, but they do happen — it's the physics of the Universe (or suddenly triggered stops or similar circumstances).
Spoiler: everything ended in profit again — that's why "difficult" is in quotes

If you're interested in how it works even in such moments, here's how:
The AI placed a series of lots on AUDCAD (by the way, on H1 you can see that the entries looked correct).
However, after 20–25 minutes we saw that they weren't closing quickly.

What do we do then? We step in. Yes, sometimes we have to, but hear me out

We place a series of our own manual lots.
Earlier we thought we were "saving the situation". Accumulate profit so that the total profit covers the loss.
But it constantly turns out that we earn even more on these "stuck" lots, because they themselves eventually close in profit too.

In other words, the primitive measure turns into even greater profit

In any case, we treat everything very seriously.
If the total is in profit (taking into account open lots) no less than PF 2.0 for the day) — we close all positions.

In short, this has been working for more than six months now
It's amazing, but it's a fact
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  • #27
  • Apr 9, 2026 6:52am Apr 9, 2026 6:52am
Quoting OraSignal
Here's a classic example of a "difficult" case. Yes, they are rare, but they do happen — it's the physics of the Universe (or suddenly triggered stops or similar circumstances). Spoiler: everything ended in profit again — that's why "difficult" is in quotes If you're interested in how it works even in such moments, here's how: The AI placed a series of lots on AUDCAD (by the way, on H1 you can see that the entries looked correct). However, after 20–25 minutes we saw that they weren't closing quickly. What do we do then? We step in. Yes,...
P.S.
Of course, there’s nothing surprising or magical about it.

The system has shown a win rate above 93% over many thousands of lots, and it’s clear that it understands the market. The main question is what to do with the difficult 5–7% (after all, nothing in nature is ever 100%).

However, it’s also obvious that these 5–7% cannot be completely stupid.
We can assume that they are more likely “smeared” by new circumstances, but the original trend, even if weakened, cannot disappear completely.
So in theory, this works if it works — and it does work
The future is determined solely by the present. More: ORASignal.com
  • #28
  • Apr 9, 2026 9:05am Apr 9, 2026 9:05am
AUDCAD — conclusion (beginning above).

Formally, this method could have been repeated multiple times.
The system clearly “gives a second, third chance”.
Because the trend, even if weakened, continues to build or at least remains present. And therefore nothing dangerous “flies away” in the wrong direction.
At least within the trading interval (currently minutes, maximum a couple of hours).
So if the “difficult” lot had stayed open longer, we could have continued adding until it crossed the initial line set by the AI (beyond that — unknown territory), or until the daily Profit Factor remained no lower than 2.0, taking into account open lots (see above).

And this is not guessing. It’s not faith or hope that some indicator won’t let us down.

Here we have a different kind of intuition.

Trust based on statistics.

(вy the way, there is no more reliable form of trust in nature at all)
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  • #29
  • Apr 9, 2026 1:27pm Apr 9, 2026 1:27pm
Short positions, long positions — everything is stable, everything is growing

Of course, one could philosophize that the dollar was dragged in the wrong direction for some time, and that the dollar is indeed “surprising”, but that’s not our favorite genre — talking instead of counting

The important thing: did the AI cope? Is it working? Yes — profit again.
+33 pips and +27 pips for another successful day.
Beautiful

Moving forward

P.S. And yet the USDJPY lots, although they got a bit stuck, were opened in an ideal place )
Right now there are so many people who opened positions at the wrong market moments that the intelligence of ORA genuinely delights and amazes )
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  • #30
  • Apr 9, 2026 2:34pm Apr 9, 2026 2:34pm
Your average MAE(Maximum Adverse Excursion: maximum amount of loss experienced by a trade from its entry point to its maximum loss point before the trade finally turns in favor of your position or is closed) looks high.
  • #31
  • Apr 9, 2026 3:36pm Apr 9, 2026 3:36pm
Quoting herbie88
Your average MAE(Maximum Adverse Excursion: maximum amount of loss experienced by a trade from its entry point to its maximum loss point before the trade finally turns in favor of your position or is closed) looks high.
Thank you for the comment.

However, please be more specific — which exact case are you referring to?
Behind us we have hundreds of different trade series, and they vary greatly. There are cases like that, but more often they are different. You can check our X account — there are many trades and lots there.

But let me make an important clarification.
The intuition that “I saw the future and the price should now go smoothly downhill” is one of the most dangerous and mistaken intuitions in trading. I’m ready to prove and explain this in strict mathematical terms.
A chart is merely a flat 2D projection of much more complex and multidimensional market structures.
A chart only gives us basic information: where the quote is at the moment and what kind of reserve there was.

Everything else — the expected linearity you’re talking about — cannot be seen or properly understood from market charts alone.

In other words, it’s like trying to analyze ocean waves from photographs (flat 2D projections) of a three-dimensional sea, taken from different angles
Moreover, the sea is three-dimensional, while real market structures… well, who knows how many dimensions are actually required to fully describe them. In our three-dimensional world, it’s impossible to see them completely, but we can at least try to “feel” them numerically.

In short, it’s like something that briefly manifests in our observable reality and then moves further away. If we look through the limited lens of what we can see in a flat chart.

In the context of this understanding, take another look at the charts.
It literally reads as: ORA (our AI) places lots exactly at the points where the trend begins to break.
Not instantly, not once and like in dreams of the impossible, but in the way it is realistically possible — because further on, the trend is clearly different )
Look to the LEFT and then to the RIGHT of the lots )

Can this be IDEAL? Like a sniper shot... hmm... oh, I somehow doubt that something like that exists anywhere.
If it does, please show me examples of such systems
The future is determined solely by the present. More: ORASignal.com
  • #32
  • Apr 9, 2026 3:46pm Apr 9, 2026 3:46pm
Quoting OraSignal
{quote} Thank you for the comment. However, please be more specific — which exact case are you referring to? Behind us we have hundreds of different trade series, and they vary greatly. There are cases like that, but more often they are different. You can check our X account — there are many trades and lots there. But let me make an important clarification. The intuition that “I saw the future and the price should now go smoothly downhill” is one of the most dangerous and mistaken intuitions in trading. I’m ready to prove and explain this in strict mathematical terms. A chart is merely a flat 2D projection of much more complex and multidimensional market structures. A chart only gives us basic information: where the quote is at the moment and what kind of reserve there was. Everything else — the expected linearity you’re talking about — cannot be seen or properly understood from market charts alone. In other words, it’s like trying to analyze ocean waves from photographs (flat 2D projections) of a three-dimensional sea, taken from different angles Moreover, the sea is three-dimensional, while real market structures… well, who knows how many dimensions are actually required to fully describe them. In our three-dimensional world, it’s impossible to see them completely, but we can at least try to “feel” them numerically. In short, it’s like something that briefly manifests in our observable reality and then moves further away. If we look through the limited lens of what we can see in a flat chart. In the context of this understanding, take another look at the charts. It literally reads as: ORA (our AI) places lots exactly at the points where the trend begins to break. Not instantly, not once and like in dreams of the impossible, but in the way it is realistically possible — because further on, the trend is clearly different ) Look to the LEFT and then to the RIGHT of the lots ) Can this be IDEAL? Like a sniper shot... hmm... oh, I somehow doubt that something like that exists anywhere. If it does, please show me examples of such systems
On the new screenshot — an updated view of #USDJPY as of now.

Everything looks very good there, and the reserve that we always check was excellent

Sometimes we don’t have enough energy to show and prove everything, because there are A LOT of lots per day and, most importantly — it’s in profit anyway, so what more can you say
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  • #33
  • Apr 10, 2026 1:01pm Apr 10, 2026 1:01pm
Today our AI also decided not to trade
Of course, it doesn’t read the news, but it’s hard to disagree that right now it’s better to stay on the sidelines.
However, we never turn our AI off. Evolution is important to us — in case something unexpected happens.
But so far everything is going great, and trading in conditions of panic, anxiety, and nervousness usually means diving straight into unpredictability and chaos.

On the screenshot you can see the full statistics for the currently active f9_x mode — from the very moment it was launched until today. These are trades made exclusively by the AI itself, which is especially impressive (without any additional manual trades, which are shown in the Forex Factory statistics).

We perfectly understand how people react to such numbers. Reactions like “Nonsense”, “This can’t be real”, and so on.

And we fully support that reaction.

Because the flip side of extreme skepticism toward extreme results is extreme delight and incredible hype — when it turns out to be true
Being no less skeptical than you, we will simply continue publishing the results — without unnecessary words


Important note on the chart:
The graph shows cumulative Profit Factor and Win Rate.
That is, not the values for each individual period, but the accumulated figures over time — the average, if you will.
This is a much more honest representation than what we often see, when only a lucky period is cherry-picked and displayed.
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  • #34
  • Apr 11, 2026 12:33pm Apr 11, 2026 12:33pm
On our website there is a blog where we explain in detail how our AI works and answer the most common questions that people write to us about, as well as the questions that inevitably arise when seeing an AI that stays consistently in profit day after day and for many months:

→ Link to the blog

We also published yesterday an explanation of how we view MAE (Maximum Adverse Excursion) in our understanding and its application to the n-dimensional structure that the market actually is.

We hope you find it useful and interesting
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The future is determined solely by the present. More: ORASignal.com
  • #35
  • Apr 12, 2026 12:00am Apr 12, 2026 12:00am
Why dont you just produced an EA intead.
  • #36
  • Apr 12, 2026 7:15am Apr 12, 2026 7:15am
Quoting OraSignal
{quote} They haven’t opened it yet, but does MyFXBook really offer more possibilities? In our opinion, Forex Factory is more transparent and detailed when it comes to analyzing real trading performance (every single trade, equity curve, profit factor, win rate, pips gained/lost, trade duration, and so on). Personally, I think that from the perspective of evaluating the quality of the system, there is more than enough information here. They take literally everything into account and even make the statistics look worse than it actually is — meaning...
No, Myfxbook is more trustful! BTW, what is max DD?
  • #37
  • Apr 12, 2026 8:02am Apr 12, 2026 8:02am
Thank you for your comment.

Regarding indicators and trust in one platform versus another — “this one is better than that one,” while someone else says the opposite — the reality is that what is enough for most traders is simply not enough for us.

Why?
We explained this directly in the article above (you can find it in our blog).
Let me quote:

But the main trap in trading is precisely retrospective evaluation — judging things only after they have happened.
This kind of assessment provides no guarantees for the future. It is a very special case.
For example, the metric that says a car will consume 10 liters per 100 km at 90 km/h can break and show 15 liters — but only if the car is overloaded beyond its designed limits. Unload it again and the metric returns to the calculated 10 liters.
In trading it doesn’t work that way. A metric that shows 90% today can easily drop to 50% tomorrow (pure coin-flip territory) on the exact same instrument. There is nothing to “unload” or reset to factory settings to bring the 90% back.
As soon as conditions change — market regime, volatility, position size, psychological state, or human intervention — the metric stops adequately describing what is happening. What was ideal a minute ago falls apart on the same chart and the same pair.
Just recently I read a post on X from someone with 10k followers: “I blew my account again. I need a break, guys, to figure out what I was doing wrong.”
There is nothing to figure out. You simply have to count everything you do and honestly look at your full lifetime result.
If it was originally 50/50, you were just guessing, and the probability of blowing up was exactly the same.


Also, from my point of view, the very moment a trade is opened — it is already a fact, already data.
Personally, I don’t need anything more than that. In our case, all trades are publicly visible. They already show everything you need to see.
They are also duplicated with charts.

In my opinion, it is embarrassing and foolish to have to prove something that every trader should (not “can,” but should) check for themselves.
That’s the short version

PS
Max Profit Drawdown = 0
This means that since the beginning of account tracking, the equity has never fallen below the previous historical high.
This is a very rare occurrence, and it is exactly what ORA demonstrates.
It shows that our AI not only generates profit, but also protects already earned profits extremely well.
The account almost never gives back what it has already taken.
In short, in our case this is one of those moments where our system truly looks anomalously strong compared to the vast majority of others.
The future is determined solely by the present. More: ORASignal.com
  • #38
  • Edited 12:54pm Apr 12, 2026 8:23am | Edited 12:54pm
Quoting phrixusong
{quote} No, Myfxbook is more trustful! BTW, what is max DD?
By the way, regarding your account (if you don’t mind), here’s a brief analysis.
With this kind of statistics (363 trades, 50.1% win rate, average trade return = 0%), the hypothesis that you have a real trading edge is rejected. In other words, you are essentially guessing.

Your results can be explained with very high probability by the following:

  1. Random guessing of direction
  2. Successful timing when closing losing trades (you cut losses quickly)
  3. Successful holding of rare correctly guessed trending moves

You have a classic style of a “lucky scalper/trend follower without an edge” — you don’t create a real advantage, but simply minimize the damage from wrong entries and occasionally catch good moves.

Yes, this approach can work, but it is well-known in practice.
The probability of error is equal on both sides, and you can quickly lose everything during one unlucky streak.


Just to be clear — I have absolutely no intention of offending or upsetting you in any way.
On the contrary, in my opinion, you have excellent intuition when it comes to trading, particularly in sensing the right moment to exit a trade or to hold a position longer.

The future is determined solely by the present. More: ORASignal.com
  • #39
  • Apr 13, 2026 2:19pm Apr 13, 2026 2:19pm
Everything is great again
Especially beautiful on #EURJPY.
As expected, fewer signals during such periods, but we don’t turn the AI off.

Interesting case on #CHFJPY: the reserve was quite small — which is really rare for ORA (usually the reserve is significant).
But what matters is that there was a clear trend break, which is very visible on the chart afterwards, and the pair rose strongly.
We’ve already gotten used to always having a solid reserve, but the AI is also trained to recognize situations when something is clearly off and simply stop trading.

In the end — profit was made, and no stupid mistakes were committed.

As for whether it was “beautiful” or not…

I don’t know. I personally don’t have n-dimensional vision, so my definition of beauty comes only through PROFIT
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  • #40
  • Apr 14, 2026 12:00am Apr 14, 2026 12:00am
Hi, I noticed that most of your signals have very small take profit levels, around 2–3 pips.
With spreads and execution delays, this makes it quite difficult to consistently achieve the TP in real trading.
Is there a reason for using such a tight TP?
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