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Trading the NFP this friday

  • #221
  • Dec 8, 2006 8:18pm Dec 8, 2006 8:18pm
Quoting Moe
damn pound went up 100+ pips then drop 200+ pips, nobody had a clue, this is one of the crazest n.f.p. i have seen in a while.

Actually, if you take it from the low of the initial spike down, cable rose 200+ pips and then fell 200+ pips. More likely a pre-planned strategy by the big boys. Clean out the shorters, some who have shorted well before news release and in the process, neutralise the straddlers.
Of course, after the event, you will see people trying to explain it by the actual numbers that were released. Happens all the time. Revisions here and there. You could make a good case for the price rising or the price falling.
  • #222
  • Dec 8, 2006 8:28pm Dec 8, 2006 8:28pm
why you are asking why,up or down?

I think every one of you is just a tiny retail trader,not a market maker,so................Just follow market makers.Do not stay in the fantasy that you are smarter than the market,otherwise you will end up with a broken neck.

Thanks,
atheer1
  • #223
  • Dec 8, 2006 9:29pm Dec 8, 2006 9:29pm
next week look pretty good for us newstraders.

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Pub...icCalendar.htm
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #224
  • Dec 9, 2006 4:35am Dec 9, 2006 4:35am
This may be helpful to you.


US Dollar
As we said yesterday, Friday’s economic indicators would assess whether volatility had truly returned to the FX market. For those looking for trading opportunities in a more active market, the results didn’t disappoint. A consistently top ranked market-moving indicator, today’s NFPs built pressure behind the dollar; but the initial reaction was muddled. Payrolls through the month of November grew 132,000 heads, which was both better than expected and far above the previous month’s read. This headline number, on the other hand, was tainted by a revision in October’s figure from 92,000 to 79,000. What’s more, in comparison to the average payroll additions in the first half of the year, this was a modest improvement. The same mixed sentiment was present in the remaining statistics of the labor report. Average hourly earnings for the month rebounded to a 4.2 percent annual pace of expansion, while the jobless rate countered by stepping up to 4.5 percent. Taking a deeper look into the employment numbers broken down by sector, the same offsetting sentiment was seen. So, from all angles, the labor numbers could have been regarded as the average print. However, these numbers were not taken in isolation; and it was the contrast drawn against preconceived dollar pessimism that helped to sow the seeds of a rally. With fears over the economy heading for a hard landing prevailing over the dollar, today’s employment and wage numbers helped alleviate the pressure while diverting expectations for a Fed rate cut by the first quarter of 2007. With this underlying optimism lying in wait, all that was needed was a trigger. Enter Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson who sparked the rally when he offered his opinion that today’s employment numbers were ‘good news’ and provided evidence economic growth was heading toward sustainable levels. On these comments the dollar entered a steep rally against most of its major pairs that easily measured over 100 points.

Quoting vder
With regards to reasons, I am looking for post analysis. While the trade is going on...i dont necessarily need to know why its moving in a certain direction because I am getting an idea of that. The NFP came in better than usual and thus the USD gained value. I do not understand why it rebounded twice. Understanding the market will make me more agile and adept at determining which way to trade.

I have not had the opportunity to study price action at the moment so I need to gain information however I can. I am just curious as to why the market reacted the way it did AFTER it moved. While its moving i can try and go with the flow but I need to learn from my mistakes. Thats why I want to do some post analysis. I have not seen this market spike 3 times in such a short period of time. I want to know what to look out for when the market starts acting wild.

thanks.

btw...what time frame to trade off of when trading the news?

thanks.
  • #225
  • Dec 9, 2006 4:39am Dec 9, 2006 4:39am
Is that trade the news. In this case you found it helpful overall is it pretty informative for you?
Quoting smjones
Actually TTn gave a clue it was going to happen about an hour before NFP.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&postcount=190

I caught the rise and then I caught the fall.
  • #226
  • Dec 9, 2006 6:30am Dec 9, 2006 6:30am
Yes it is. The audio is what I find very useful. It is not that they say buy or sell here. It is more like they give bits of info about what the news is that effects those decisions. Then that is where trading experience comes in to play. I have another news feed I get from my broker, which is as good for the text, but nothing like the audio from TTN. I do not know if it would be worth it for you. It depends on your level of trading and whether you rely on news to makes trades..

Quoting goodthings
Is that trade the news. In this case you found it helpful overall is it pretty informative for you?
  • #227
  • Dec 9, 2006 6:33am Dec 9, 2006 6:33am
Thanks for the reply
  • #228
  • Last Post: Dec 9, 2006 9:29am Dec 9, 2006 9:29am
hope everyone did well on friday! I def did...fxsol C.A.R button helped me out lots!! I was able to reverse my short at 13249 t/p at 13340 and reverse that again..rofl
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