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  • #19,581
  • Apr 2, 2026 7:41am Apr 2, 2026 7:41am
Quoting Twocans
If the order block in the previous post gets knocked out then the runway opens up for a squeeze upside. ALL the liquidity is above that order block being picked over now... {image}
Wow that was a valuable remark!
  • #19,582
  • Apr 2, 2026 10:37am Apr 2, 2026 10:37am

  1. As long as we are below 1.1559

    1. → Bearish continuation

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,583
  • Edited Apr 3, 2026 2:24am Apr 2, 2026 6:14pm | Edited Apr 3, 2026 2:24am
Chart is self explanatory... lol. Bloviating a tad, however, this "Location" of price structured in a tight range "flattish" with the 20-200 MA's inside the Daily hi-low range is one of the most powerful setups (Fab Four) according to Oliver Velez dubbed "The Messiah Of Wall Street" by Barron's Magazine decades ago when trades were made on a paper slip at the exchange by the man who coined the phrase 'Swing Trade' and was the best Trader alive at the time trading the Market Open when it was taboo not to let prices settle down. THIS IS A VERY POWERFUL "LOCATION" FOR A MASSIVE MOVE. Oliver has tons of video instruction on YouTube well worth learning over the weekend after you cut the grass!
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  • #19,584
  • Apr 2, 2026 8:27pm Apr 2, 2026 8:27pm
EUR/USD is trading in consolidation ahead of today's NFP report, with resistance at 1.1564 and support at 1.1491. A strong break higher will open the road toward 1.1627, 1.1640, and 1.1667, while a break lower targets 1.1443 and 1.1411/1.1391


Daily volatility (range) 79 pips

Significant news - US NFP


Have a great Friday!

1H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,585
  • Apr 2, 2026 9:22pm Apr 2, 2026 9:22pm
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (51).png Size: 46 KB

took this screenshot on jan 1 2026. still headed for that 6M fvg.
  • #19,586
  • Edited 11:33pm Apr 2, 2026 11:15pm | Edited 11:33pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4.png Size: 26 KB
1.1560 = CHoCH UP (if H4 closes above)

  1. 1.1560 = the last lower high (H4)
  2. A break of this level:

    1. → Invalidates the bearish structure
    2. → Creates the first signal of a reversal


  1. Must be an H4 candle close above 1.1560
  2. Not just a wick (rejection)
  3. After the break:

    1. The bearish trend is weakened

      1. A bullish shift occurs (CHoCH)



Summary:

  1. 1.1560 break + close = CHoCH UP
  2. Then watch for a BOS higher

Pic2 EURUSD H1

  1. H1 = Aligned with H4 (bearish)
  2. No conflict
  3. Watch: 1.1560 = Decision level

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,587
  • Apr 2, 2026 11:38pm Apr 2, 2026 11:38pm
Quoting josip
{image}1.1560 = CHoCH UP (if H4 closes above) 1.1560 = the last lower high (H4) A break of this level: → Invalidates the bearish structure → Creates the first signal of a reversal Must be an H4 candle close above 1.1560 Not just a wick (rejection) After the break: The bearish trend is weakened A bullish shift occurs (CHoCH) Summary: 1.1560 break + close = ...
Today is bank holiday
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,588
  • Apr 2, 2026 11:45pm Apr 2, 2026 11:45pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Today is bank holiday
London OFF (Market closed)
US ON (Market open)

  1. Liquidity = Lower than normal

    1. But still:
    2. Enough for a move

    1.1560 – today, the US session must confirm it on its own.

Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,589
  • Apr 3, 2026 12:21am Apr 3, 2026 12:21am
Quoting josip
{quote} London OFF (Market closed) US ON (Market open) Liquidity = Lower than normal But still: Enough for a move 1.1560 – today, the US session must confirm it on its own.
Ill stay for the nfp report but any move might be short lived.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,590
  • Edited 3:06am Apr 3, 2026 2:26am | Edited 3:06am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Today is bank holiday
computer algos don't take holidays... ;-) E/U is showing signs of bottoming where price is pushed up to create liquidity on the pullback and then it recovers grinding back through the breakout area picking off trapped Longs securing liquidity before the next push with higher highs and higher lows instead of what we've ben seeing in reverse for a much longer period of time (since mid January) with LH and LL's. H4 and H8 best although still basing more sideways than a Bullish confirmed trend at this point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,591
  • Apr 3, 2026 2:42am Apr 3, 2026 2:42am
Quoting Twocans
{quote} computer algos don't take holidays... ;-) E/U is showing signs of bottoming where price is pushed up to create liquidity on the pullback and then it recovers grinding back through the breakout area picking off trapped Longs securing liquidity before the next push with higher highs and higher lows instead of what we've ben seeing in reverse with LH and LL's.
That's why I wait!

If nfp comes strong then eu should dip first, but its never 100% percent.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,592
  • Apr 3, 2026 5:50am Apr 3, 2026 5:50am
If we don't close below 1.1520 → we go higher
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,593
  • Apr 3, 2026 6:21am Apr 3, 2026 6:21am
'Don't Get Sucked In' to following ANYONE BLINDLY. The D1 Chart has several BULLISH STRUCTURES UNFOLDING After the decline from the multi year high in January. Its in a contraction zone and appears to be under accumulation by Higher "Round Trip" investors like banks and hedge funds.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,594
  • Apr 3, 2026 7:00am Apr 3, 2026 7:00am
So far, price action is very solid and contracted (spell check corrected my typing and said contracepted.... lol) after the 'News' Drop at the open. This is what you want to see when in higher time frames. G/U gapped up yesterday giving big boys the opportunity to drag it down and absorb liquidity. So far price action is stable and smooth which suggests that bears may be losing control as Bulls take up the slack even after the manipulation yesterday trapping bulls above the current price. PRICE WILL ALWAYS END UP GOING IN THE DIRECTION OF HIGHER TIME FRAMES. Its just plain math. If the 'gap' yesterday gets covered (or run over) that would be confirmation IMHO.
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  • #19,595
  • Apr 3, 2026 7:02am Apr 3, 2026 7:02am
Quoting Twocans
'Don't Get Sucked In' to following ANYONE BLINDLY. The D1 Chart has several BULLISH STRUCTURES UNFOLDING After the decline from the multi year high in January. Its in a contraction zone and appears to be under accumulation by Higher "Round Trip" investors like banks and hedge funds. {image} {image}
According to your weekly chart, eu and gu will fall significantly in this quarter, just look at divergence between the two, the crack in correlation is 2 stage, therefore given strong indication of reversal on the weekly, though it will rise bit before the fall
  • #19,596
  • Apr 3, 2026 7:13am Apr 3, 2026 7:13am
Quoting dele5000
{quote} According to your weekly chart, eu and gu will fall significantly in this quarter, just look at divergence between the two, the crack in correlation is 2 stage, therefore given strong indication of reversal on the weekly, though it will rise bit before the fall
Anything is possible. If everybody believed the same thing we wouldn't have a market. I certainly wouldn't wouldn't call it a reversal like the Jan. climax top.. Thanks for you insight! Both charts are the E/U BTW
  • #19,597
  • Apr 3, 2026 6:08pm Apr 3, 2026 6:08pm
Lower timeframe going sideways….
enjoy your weekend
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,598
  • Apr 4, 2026 12:04am Apr 4, 2026 12:04am
It was a choppy week for the EUR/USD pair. After opening at 1.1500, it dropped to 1.1443 before recovering above the round number to reach 1.1627. However, it broke down again, closing just a few pips away from 1.1500.

The pair is currently trading in a range, held above the 1.1443 and 1.1411 support levels and capped below the 1.1640 and 1.1667 resistance levels. I expect the pair to continue trading within this range next week. I remain cautious of a break lower, as bearish sentiment could lead it toward the 1.1391 and 1.1355 support levels. Conversely, if buyers successfully defend the lower range and threaten the 1.1640/67 resistance, a successful break could bring the 1.1700, 1.1747, and 1.1762 levels into scope.


Significant news - FOMC Meeting Minutes, US PCE Price Index, US GDP QoQ Final & US CPI.


Have a great weekend!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,599
  • Apr 5, 2026 8:40pm Apr 5, 2026 8:40pm
EUR/USD traded at 1.1505 following the open but recovered later, it is currently ranging with a downside bias around the weekly pivot, below Friday’s high of 1.1549 and the 1.1564 resistance level. To the downside, the 1.1500-1.1491 zone is preventing a deeper drop toward 1.1443, or even 1.1411 should downward momentum strengthen.


Daily volatility (range) 56 pips


Have a great week!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2026-04-06_06-07-29.png Size: 47 KB
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,600
  • Apr 5, 2026 11:55pm Apr 5, 2026 11:55pm
Quoting josip
If we don't close below 1.1520 → we go higher
update
eurusd h4

1.1520 held;
as long as "we don't close below 1.1520," the bulls still have the ball in their court, even though they are under pressure from the descending channel.
"But we also need to get above 1.1530 with a candle close at least on the H1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
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