The Swamp

i have 1512 on my chart

Iran is going after Amazons cloud
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgk28nj0lrjo

oil is now 8% up since the creature spoke.

correction 9 ish it was down over 1 % when he started

the jury is out. in the next 30 min a 12h closes .. 1519 looks valuable
kiwi 5703

it looks like it may try again,

I don't know what's keeping oil from rising. Even if the straight opens. Much of the infostructure is damaged. Shipping insurance is to the moon if available at all. My forex trades are oil related. If oil found a way to fall, they will suck.

the difference in brent compared to wti is about 10$. Europe pays about 10% more on the raw cost, plus shipping. A shortage affects Europe more. Higher oil favors the usa. comparably since its a net producer.

If you have a president who lies about every small detail. Why would you trust him on the big details? When an idiot hires a cabinet of idiots. You get what we have. You reap what you sown.

The pressure on oil is up. I don't know why Brent is showing a little less enthusiasm. The volume is higher than Feb 28 when the first bomb dropped

I had to look at my charts twice.. WTI is higher than brent. WTF

This may be the crack in the petro dollar. That's not good for the USA. That could fuck the USA long term. Another Trump casualty.

Pam Bondi fired.

I may be wrong.... Take a screen shot and ask your ai. Oil wise still looks bullish to me. on the week chart. The volume atm is higher than the spike a month ago. But beware the smaller times are showing bear divergence.. My forex trades for a stronger usd are based on oil.
pa has broken out a bullish wedge

Many people talking about dislocation, arbitrage opportunity, spreads on WTI vs Brent.

My view is.. dont trade the spread under the pretext of mean reversion. It is going to get even more dislocated.
It's a repricing and change of index as a benchmark for liquidity and risk.

Basically the ME and Europe prices off Brent. ME is stuck, Europe for sure is not going to be selling their Brent.
WTI is now a fair relection of risk, liquidity and cost being the only place that you can actually get stable, non-sanctioned oil from.

To me, this tells me that the world is expecting the SOH to be closed for much longer and alot more volatile.
If you had to distill it down,

Brent = Cost of BBLs + Logistics to Far East + (Potential insurance increase) + (Potential tolls) + (Volatility) + Heavier crude

Those in () are unknowns

vs

WTI = Cost of BBls + Logistics to Far east + Insurance + tolls + Lighter Crude

Makes sense that WTI is trading over Brent for risk premium. All the refineries have to do is tweak their systems to take in WTI specs instead of Brent.
And that sir, is how USA controls who gets what and retain it's hegemony.

Yeah they can tweak it. But its not so simple. The lighter wti crude may force them to throttle back. They may have to cut production in 1/2. They will probably make less valuable diesels and kerosine/jet fuels. Refineries are fickle. If the refinery is designed for ME oil. Than that's what it runs best on. It takes time to learn to run, and at a lower output (that produces more flare waste). They have X amount of refineries that supplied the world. Some of them are offline in the ME and Russia. Even if they get WTI. May not be what people think. Because the refineries that normally get ME oil, Will run at a lower output and higher cost using WTI. That alone may cause a bigger product shortage. The refineries along the gulf coast like Some refineries on the u.s. gulf coast like heavy oil sour. They don't get much ME oil. They get the heavy stuff from Canada, Venezuela, Mexico etc. I'm sure the cook can figure out the right recipe . But the refineries will likely be less efficient. Less efficient alone my create a supply shortage. It can be other cluster fuck. Our stupid president don't think we pay enough in the usa. He told the world to buy it from the usa. Putting further demand on a limited product. Raising the cost for usa consumers.

I now have a 4h and a 6h close below .5703 nzd/usd
Prior to the war. Most of its oil came from there. Before refined in S. Korea and Japan. It has a lot of logistics to line up to get oil. Japan and S. Korea have their own problems getting that oil. Those supply lines have stopped. Now all 3 plus the rest of the world. Will bid up the oil price of what's available. Ukraine has no choice but to go hard after Russian oil. They cant allow Russia to make that extra money. China and India will want their oil share too. This is how world war three evolves. Blame it on the idiot. Ray Charles could see this years ago. One thing may come from this people many don't see yet in the usa. You need alternatives to stay out of war. Had we focused on this since 1970s we would not need be in this trouble.

eu 1519 is the gate keeper. the gu may be a better short under 3186..

gu 3186
aud .6848
chf .8038.
usdx...100.181 testing now

A stronger usd againt stronger oil, cripples oil buying power on a b/o.. In other words it hurts these crosses more (The countries). It can cause a long weekend panic.

on dollar index that usd b/o at 99.942
why are they different ? tic mill is the lower one. TVC the higher.. I don't know why they are different. Its what I have
https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-isr...ump-04-03-2026
Pilot ejected over Iran