Only EURUSD

Iranian Parliament news comes on time, let see

That was the lucky one but some min. later Manufacturing PMI came higher so I smell a sticky 1.1600 until us session. Ill close my break even higher and rest my case!

yea no follow through after initial reaction. Bull seems like starting the month strong!

Has done it before. Dropped finally!

My exit trigger is a close above 1.1610. I am waiting for Trump's response to the 'No Negotiations' statement to see if it triggers a USD safe-haven bid.

1.1640 is next if we stay above 1.1600-1.1575

utimately i was wxpecting 1743 and even 1830 to reload shorts let see!

Yes just scalping as its April's fools today in case bulls get tricked!

Happy month!

E/U looking like its going to need a retreat and backfill whoop'n some Bulls and Bears. That or its taking a nap somewhere in New York?

Eu unmoved after better than expected us news two times today because of Trump's tweets, but I most suspect this is all positioning left from the previous quarter as huge expiries need to be filled.

Lets see how things are going to develop, for now looks like the risk-on is back!

If we stay below today's high:
No confirmation of continuation ↑
What it means:
High has not been breached
Market is hesitating / distributing
A potential lower high (H4) may form

2 possibilities:
1. Consolidation
Market is accumulating
Preparing for the next break ↑
2. Rejection
Failure to break the high
→ Return lower

Without a break of the high:
No BOS (Break of Structure)
No confirmed trend

Summary:
Below high = neutral / wait
Above high = confirmed bullish continuation

CHOCH = 1.1559
BOS = only above today's high

The EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.1550 with a bearish to neutral bias. After hitting a high of 1.1627 yesterday, the pair retreated back below the 1.1600 handle. While support is expected to hold between 1.1500 and 1.1530, a break below this zone could attract further selling pressure, targeting 1.1457. Conversely, a rise and sustained hold above today’s high would shift the focus toward the 1.1627 and 1.1640 resistance levels.


Daily volatility (range) 79 pips

Significant news - US Initial Jobless Claims, US Trade Balance


Have great day!

1H

EURUSD’s rally has stalled; now let’s look at the DXY and how it reacts to the zone around the 99.90 level.

DXY H4

1. Around 99.6 – 99.8
2. R (Resistance): ~99.8 – 100.0

Multiple rejection level (equal highs / supply)

1. A point where:
   1. The market has repeatedly stalled its rally
   2. Potential liquidity zone above the highs

   
   
   

2. Still:
   1. Bullish (HH + HL)

   
   
   

3. This is:
   1. A pullback within an uptrend

   
   
   

Scenarios:

1. Break above 99.8 – 100.0
   1. → Bullish BOS (Break of Structure)
   2. → Continuation ↑
   3. → EURUSD ↓

   
   
   

2. Rejection at 99.8
   1. → Further pullback
   2. → Retesting lower:
   3. ~99.2 – 99.0

   
   

3. Trend is still:
   1. Bullish (not invalidated)

4. But:
   1. Without confirmation of continuation

1. When will BOS occur:
2. Only when:
   1. There is a break + close above 99.8 – 100.0

3. Resulting in:
   1. Bullish BOS (Break of Structure)

EURUSD vs DXY
Current Status:
EURUSD (H4)

1. Below 1.1559 (CHoCH)
2. Bearish

DXY (H4)

1. Below 99.8 (no BOS) H4 close above 99.800=bosup
2. Bullish, but unconfirmed

Combined Meaning:

1. USD lacks strength for now (no BOS yet)
2. EURUSD has already lost its bullish attempt (below CHoCH)
3. Result:
   1. Slight USD dominance = downward pressure on EURUSD

   
   

Interpretation:

1. It is not a clean trend alignment
2. It is:
   1. Weak USD vs. even weaker EUR

   
   

Probability:

1. More likely:
   1. DXY completes a BOS to the upside
   2. EURUSD continues downward ↓

   
   

2. BUT:
   1. Until DXY breaks 99.8:
      1. → The move may be:
         1. Slow
         2. Choppy (unclear/sideways)

         
         

      
      

   
   

Summary (Clean):

1. EURUSD = Bearish (below CHoCH)
2. DXY = Bullish bias, waiting for BOS
3. Direction:
   1. Slightly down for EURUSD
   2. But without strong momentum for now

   
   

1512 1520 may be good spot to long….

bull will need 1620 to go further up

Looks good but from 1575 and higher to 1607 sellers are stronger.

bear is possibly not done yet as 1512 not taken. We are simply in a 200 pips range roughly from 1.14ish to 1.16ish

I prefer short positions until news but it seems I missed the train one more time!

Order block in Contraction 'weighted' heavier with more price action towards the premium side of 50% . I don't use Fibs but for 'location within a range' hi to low. The 1.15250 area is powerful on a Daily chart as well.

If the order block in the previous post gets knocked out then the runway opens up for a squeeze upside. ALL the liquidity is above that order block being picked over now...

A large-scale mobilisation is beginning in Iran. Everything will depend on how far the United States decides to go. This could trigger significant movement in the pair.