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  • #21
  • Mar 31, 2026 1:34pm Mar 31, 2026 1:34pm
Trump is ready to end the war in the Middle East, leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed.

I don’t believe this scenario at all.

Such statements look more like a distracting maneuver while preparing for some American ground operations in the region.

I’ve noted earlier that Trump is hooked and won’t be able to slip off the hook so easily. It won’t be possible to celebrate victory over Iran without opening the Strait of Hormuz.

By closing the strait, Iran has essentially grabbed Trump by the balls and periodically squeezes them. That’s why he’s been so nervous over the past few weeks.
Caiman System All Time Return: 4,352.7%
  • #22
  • Mar 31, 2026 2:21pm Mar 31, 2026 2:21pm
Quoting ferrand
BlackRock believes that the Fed should cut rates to mitigate the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. Given this kind of rhetoric, it looks like BlackRock's asset management is clearly feeling the pain from the 9% drop in the stock market from its peak. That's why they're now begging the Fed to cut rates — just to prop up their sagging economy. By the way, back in early March they already had issues with one of their money market funds, when they stopped allowing investors to withdraw their money. And now, amid rising inflationary pressures,...
I heard Kevin Warsh's plan was to cut rates but also reduce the Fed's balance sheet which I find interesting. There's so much moralizing about 'money printing' 'inflation' that it can be hard to get a grasp of what's really going on.

From what I understand, if you cut rates while also reducing QE, you make it easier for banks to access money while making it a little more expensive for the government to borrow because you're no longer propping up the bond market, but that's just my very limited understanding of the situation and at any rate I'm kind of happy they're moving in that direction because the majority of my positions would benefit from a rate cut with the exception of DXY Long.

Also kind of wondering like, if they were to shrink the Fed's balance sheet, would that result in 'less money printing' and therefore reduce inflation? Or is that offset by cutting rates simultaneously?
  • #23
  • Apr 1, 2026 2:06am Apr 1, 2026 2:06am
Quoting caca997
{quote} I heard Kevin Warsh's plan was to cut rates but also reduce the Fed's balance sheet which I find interesting. There's so much moralizing about 'money printing' 'inflation' that it can be hard to get a grasp of what's really going on. From what I understand, if you cut rates while also reducing QE, you make it easier for banks to access money while making it a little more expensive for the government to borrow because you're no longer propping up the bond market, but that's just my very limited understanding of the situation and at any rate...
I like the spirit of it more than pure dovish rate cuts with endless QE. The post-2008/2020 era showed that a permanently bloated Fed balance sheet distorts markets, creates moral hazard (big firms get implicit backstops), and makes it harder to normalize policy later. Warsh is trying to unwind some of that legacy without blowing up the economy.

That said, I'm skeptical it will work as cleanly as advertised:
Politics will interfere. Trump wants lower rates (and lower mortgage rates specifically), but aggressive QT could push long-term yields up, frustrating that goal.
Timing and magnitude matter hugely. If inflation pressures are already rising (e.g., from energy, tariffs, or strong demand), even this "balanced" approach could undershoot on tightening.

The moral hazard critique is valid, but executing a major regime shift at the Fed while navigating political pressure is extremely hard. History shows central banks often end up doing too much easing when politicians lean on them.

A rate cut should indeed help most risk assets (equities, credit, real estate) while hurting a DXY long position (weaker dollar is the usual outcome). If they manage to do meaningful QT alongside it, that could provide some support to the dollar and keep inflation expectations in check — which might limit how much DXY falls.

Overall, this direction (less reliance on endless balance sheet expansion) feels healthier long-term than the pure "print and cut" playbook. But execution will be messy, data-dependent, and probably not as aggressive as Warsh's rhetoric suggests. The Fed rarely shrinks its footprint voluntarily once it's expanded.
Caiman System All Time Return: 4,352.7%
  • #24
  • Apr 1, 2026 11:17am Apr 1, 2026 11:17am
Iranian Foreign Minister:
Only Iran will decide the future of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz will not be opened based on Trump's absurd statements.

This is exactly what I was writing about:
By closing the strait, Iran has effectively grabbed Trump by the balls and periodically squeezes them. That's why he's been so nervous these past few weeks.
Without opening the Strait of Hormuz, he won't be able to declare victory, no matter how much he wants to!

It just occurred to me that the "Strait of Hormuz" is currently the main candidate for the Word of the Year 2026
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  • #25
  • Apr 1, 2026 11:21am Apr 1, 2026 11:21am
Quoting ferrand
{quote} I like the spirit of it more than pure dovish rate cuts with endless QE. The post-2008/2020 era showed that a permanently bloated Fed balance sheet distorts markets, creates moral hazard (big firms get implicit backstops), and makes it harder to normalize policy later. Warsh is trying to unwind some of that legacy without blowing up the economy. That said, I'm skeptical it will work as cleanly as advertised: Politics will interfere. Trump wants lower rates (and lower mortgage rates specifically), but aggressive QT could push long-term yields...
Yeah, that’s basically where I land too. You can cut policy rates while shrinking the balance sheet, but the transmission channels don’t all move in the same direction. Lowering the policy rate makes interbank funding and new loan creation cheaper, but QT pushes in the opposite direction for duration assets. Once the Fed steps back from buying Treasuries/MBS, those markets have to clear at higher yields, so government (and to a lesser extent corporate) borrowing gets more expensive.
On the corporate side, I feel like the Fed barely touches that market directly, like their corporate bond buying during COVID was tiny compared to Treasuries/MBS, but then again spreads tend to move off the Treasury curve anyway. If long‑end gov yields rise, corporate yields get dragged up with them even if credit conditions are otherwise fine.
The open question for me is how much corporations actually rely on bond issuance versus bank credit. Big firms tap the bond market constantly, but a lot of the real‑economy financing still runs through banks. If policy rates are lower, interbank funding and new loans get cheaper, so you could see credit conditions easing even while the bond market tightens, and I honestly have no idea how that plays out. I find it interesting that in countries like France, the government now borrows at a higher rate than global firms like L'Oréal, so maybe we see that play out in the US as well.
  • #26
  • Apr 1, 2026 11:21am Apr 1, 2026 11:21am
What if after the Strait of Hormuz, in 2027 we all have to keep an eye on the Strait of Malacca?

It's also a very important strait, through which China imports the lion's share of its oil and gas. And if the PRC begins an operation against Taiwan, the US Navy will most likely try to close it.

As a result of such actions, China won't receive oil, and the whole world won't receive a huge amount of consumer goods without which it's hard to imagine modern life.
A severe shortage of consumer goods will emerge in the world, which will lead to an unprecedented inflationary shock.

What do you think of such prospects?
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Caiman System All Time Return: 4,352.7%
  • #27
  • Apr 1, 2026 11:28am Apr 1, 2026 11:28am
Quoting ferrand
What if after the Strait of Hormuz, in 2027 we all have to keep an eye on the Strait of Malacca? It's also a very important strait, through which China imports the lion's share of its oil and gas. And if the PRC begins an operation against Taiwan, the US Navy will most likely try to close it. As a result of such actions, China won't receive oil, and the whole world won't receive a huge amount of consumer goods without which it's hard to imagine modern life. A severe shortage of consumer goods will emerge in the world, which will lead to an unprecedented...
Valid risk, but more tail scenario than base case.
The Strait of Malacca is critical, especially for China, but a full shutdown would hurt the entire world—not just China—so it’s unlikely.
More realistic: partial disruption → higher oil, shipping costs, and inflation… not a total collapse of goods supply.
  • #28
  • Edited 11:44am Apr 1, 2026 11:33am | Edited 11:44am
Quoting ferrand
What if after the Strait of Hormuz, in 2027 we all have to keep an eye on the Strait of Malacca? It's also a very important strait, through which China imports the lion's share of its oil and gas. And if the PRC begins an operation against Taiwan, the US Navy will most likely try to close it. As a result of such actions, China won't receive oil, and the whole world won't receive a huge amount of consumer goods without which it's hard to imagine modern life. A severe shortage of consumer goods will emerge in the world, which will lead to an unprecedented...
Not that familiar with Strait of Malacca, but like couldnt China just reroute its shipping & price in slightly higher costs? like yes everything passes thru it bc its the cheapest route but its less of a chokepoint than the Strait of Hormuz IMO
  • #29
  • Edited 6:47pm Apr 2, 2026 12:28am | Edited 6:47pm
Hormuz 100% giving Trump a headache, but the missile side is shifting fast. Iran’s down to ~20-30 ballistic shots/day (from 300-400 early on) with a significant decrease in launcher & production capabilities, and yet their hit rate is creeping up. (Iran Is Firing Fewer Missiles. But Its Hit Rate Is Increasing. Why?) We're basically seeing maller, smarter missile salvos on high-value stuff & Israel + Gulf countries burning through their higher-end interceptors.

I also keep seeing shit about how Iran has roughly 1000 missiles left. (Iran's Missile Stockpile Shrinks To Around 1,000 As War With US, Israel Drags On | World News - News18) Not sure if that's the whole picture or just some spin, but i think that would give em something like 40 days left of missile power should they continue to go through about 25 a day, and that's without taking into account their launchers which are extremely difficult to import.

For now, I think it all comes down to the drones: whether US missile stockpiles can outlast Iran's impressive Shahed production network with I think kind of forces US-IL to consider a boots on the ground type of scenario, but then again i have no idea.
  • #30
  • Apr 2, 2026 2:44am Apr 2, 2026 2:44am
"Buy stocks of companies whose products you like, they said...

You need to buy stocks for the long term, they said...

Surely, many of you have had Nike products, and maybe still do.

Well, Nike's stock from its peak in 2021 at $179 has already fallen 4 times in price, down to $44. That's the result over 5 years. Over 10 years, it's also negative, though more modestly — only a 15% loss."
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Caiman System All Time Return: 4,352.7%
  • #31
  • Edited 11:06am Apr 2, 2026 8:21am | Edited 11:06am
Quoting ferrand
"Buy stocks of companies whose products you like, they said... You need to buy stocks for the long term, they said... Surely, many of you have had Nike products, and maybe still do. Well, Nike's stock from its peak in 2021 at $179 has already fallen 4 times in price, down to $44. That's the result over 5 years. Over 10 years, it's also negative, though more modestly — only a 15% loss." {image}
Lol LMT stock isnt even doing anything and there's a war on, if i were to jump back in it would have to be some tech stock whose earnings analysts are excited about, especially seeing as theyre cheap right now.

It's funny I dont think I've purchased a pair of Nikes since the stock was at that all time high
  • #32
  • Apr 2, 2026 1:04pm Apr 2, 2026 1:04pm
UK to host talks with 35 countries on reopening Strait of Hormuz | Reuters

My take is that the political calculus for Starmer (and most European leaders) is fundamentally different from Trump's. Trump embraces the "I'll do what others won't" posture because his base rewards disruption and he's already in a permanent political war. Starmer, by contrast, is managing a fragile coalition, a skeptical public on Middle East interventions, and a very real domestic backlash risk.

So basically some kind of response is inevitable given how dependent Asian and European countries are on oil imports, but unilateral, direct military action just isn't going to fly with voters, so they need some kind of framework that allows them to make moves in the region without having it look like they're just blindly shadowing US foreign policy. Which I think could significantly weaken Iran's position; we're talking about a new kind of pressure being added to the situation, like it's a structural squeeze on Iran's main lever: control of the Strait.
  • #33
  • Apr 2, 2026 3:54pm Apr 2, 2026 3:54pm
This Friday, Easter holidays begin in the Western world, and accordingly, stock markets will be closed.

It is well known that Trump is very afraid of crashing the American stock market with his own hands, so he makes all his geopolitical moves on weekends. Following this logic, on the day before the war with Iran — Friday, February 27 — I assumed there was a high probability that it would begin on Saturday. And it did begin the next day.

And now, there are three full days ahead when the US stock exchange will not be operating. From this point of view, it is simply ideal timing for Trump to launch a ground operation in Iran and try to forcefully open the Strait of Hormuz or at least seize the island of Khark, through which Iran's oil exports flow.

Will Trump decide to carry out such an operation? I think he might take the risk...
Caiman System All Time Return: 4,352.7%
  • #34
  • Apr 2, 2026 8:58pm Apr 2, 2026 8:58pm
Quoting ferrand
This Friday, Easter holidays begin in the Western world, and accordingly, stock markets will be closed. It is well known that Trump is very afraid of crashing the American stock market with his own hands, so he makes all his geopolitical moves on weekends. Following this logic, on the day before the war with Iran — Friday, February 27 — I assumed there was a high probability that it would begin on Saturday. And it did begin the next day. And now, there are three full days ahead when the US stock exchange will not be operating. From this point of...
you are awesome in geopolitics
  • #35
  • Apr 3, 2026 2:16am Apr 3, 2026 2:16am
Bitcoin continues to trade under pressure amid rising global uncertainty and a stronger risk-off environment. Escalating geopolitical tensions and Trump’s aggressive rhetoric toward Iran are limiting appetite for crypto assets.
67K stands as the key resistance level, while 65K is the first support on pullbacks.
Resistance: 67K – 68K – 69K
Support: 65K – 64K – 63K
  • #36
  • Apr 3, 2026 2:21am Apr 3, 2026 2:21am
British Pound remains under pressure as rising geopolitical tensions and increasing risk aversion strengthen demand for the US dollar. Trump’s hawkish stance on Iran is reinforcing safe-haven flows, weighing on GBPUSD.
1.3260 stands as the first resistance level, while 1.3210 is the first support on pullbacks.
Resistance: 1.3260 – 1.3310 – 1.3360
Support: 1.3210 – 1.3160 – 1.3110
  • #37
  • Apr 3, 2026 6:36am Apr 3, 2026 6:36am
Western countries' oil inventories are still at an acceptable level (red line), but the volume of oil in transit has collapsed (blue line). If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon, countries will have to rapidly deplete their reserves.

Goldman says the largest "supply shock" in oil history could occur.

At the beginning of the week, the last tanker carrying oil from the Strait of Hormuz arrived in Europe.
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Caiman System All Time Return: 4,352.7%
  • #38
  • Apr 5, 2026 11:38am Apr 5, 2026 11:38am
I wrote earlier that by closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran had effectively grabbed Trump by the balls and was periodically squeezing them even harder.

Look at how nervous Donnie got in his Sunday post and what kind of language he used:
"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!" Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.

It’s obvious that the man is clearly in a very bad mental state, which is why such threats, swearing, and insults are pouring out of him.

Now let’s get to the essence of what he wrote. If he actually carries out his threats, and Iran starts responding in the same vein, then I’m afraid the Stone Age will come to all the countries of the Persian Gulf. Accordingly, we can forget about restoring oil, gas, aluminum, and everything else supplies from this region for the coming months, or maybe even years.

In such conditions, oil prices won’t stay just above $100 per barrel — they will storm the historical high of $147, set in the summer of 2008.

And on the stock markets, an Armageddon will begin, similar to what happened in March 2020 during the global lockdown caused by the start of the COVID pandemic. Back then, the S&P 500 lost about 30% in three weeks. The decline only stopped thanks to the Federal Reserve’s multi-trillion-dollar injections.

This time the situation could be even worse than then, because under the inflationary pressure caused by the sharp rise in oil prices, you can’t just pump several more trillions of dollars into the system. Can you imagine what would happen to inflation in such conditions? It would definitely become double-digit. And what would need to be done with the interest rate? It would have to be raised sharply. It won’t even be possible to keep it at the current level (3.75%). And as for zero rates like in 2020–2021, you can forget about dreaming of that.

So the coming week could be decisive for the markets and the entire global economy.
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  • #39
  • Apr 7, 2026 10:45am Apr 7, 2026 10:45am
Quoting ferrand
I wrote earlier that by closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran had effectively grabbed Trump by the balls and was periodically squeezing them even harder. Look at how nervous Donnie got in his Sunday post and what kind of language he used: "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!" Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. It’s obvious that the man is clearly in a very bad mental state, which is why such threats,...
Looks like shit is about to go down this week, seems like US-IL intensifying strikes and that the IRGC is kind of freaking out, seeing as they asked people to form 'human chains' around their strategic assets (power plants, etc.), which makes me think they're kind of desperate at the moment. I wonder how the sort of cheap drones versus expensive missile math aspect of the conflict is playing out at the moment, because just a few days ago a lot of people were basically saying 'Iran has already won' based on that aspect alone.

In my opinion, the conflict has devolved into a war of attrition, both in terms of economic capabilities and political will, but you know the fact the Iranian regime wants to use civilians as human shields kind of shows me they're very much panicking right now and have no means of defending themselves from those types of strikes. I'm also hearing reports that a) the regime is using foreign fighters to control its streets b) the people in the 'pro regime' protest videos you see circulating online are being bribed with food and other basic necessities (What my friend inside Iran shared with me for 5 minutes : r/NewIran)... which kind of confirms my suspicion that the IRGC is operating from a position of weakness, but what do you people make of this?

At any rate oil keeps grinding higher, which may be a sign the market is expecting Iran to strike back hard, taking more Gulf facilities offline, or that it's pricing in the facilities having already been taken offline.
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  • #40
  • Apr 7, 2026 12:28pm Apr 7, 2026 12:28pm
The IRGC stated that at 03:30 am Tehran time, regional leaders will tell Trump: “You mad bastard, stop this bloody war!”
The IRGC hints at a strong retaliatory strike against US allies in the region
————————
A post published on the Iranian government’s official website lists Iran’s “targets for retaliation”, including the Karish and Tanin gas fields, in the event of a US attack following Trump’s ultimatum
Today, the IRGC warned that there are no longer any “red lines”, and that a massive strike would be launched against US allies in the region in response to a US attack. The IRGC threatened to damage the energy infrastructure of the US and its allies, potentially depriving them of oil and gas for years, and also stated that if the US crosses the red line, the response will extend beyond the region
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