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darwin discussion

  • #1,841
  • Mar 30, 2026 6:53am Mar 30, 2026 6:53am
Quoting shufe2007
I trade Gold, darwin gold is too expensive to trade
What do you mean by "too expensive"? Darwinex charges a commission of 0.0025% (or 2.5 basis points) for trading XAU/USD (gold). Google says this is very cheap and extremely competitive. Currrent spread is 0,70 Pips.
  • #1,842
  • Mar 30, 2026 6:58am Mar 30, 2026 6:58am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} What do you mean by "too expensive"? Darwinex charges a commission of 0.0025% (or 2.5 basis points) for trading XAU/USD (gold). Google says this is very cheap and extremely competitive. Currrent spread is 0,70 Pips.
25USD per lot isn't expensive? for most of Brokers and FTMO, only 6-7 USD per lot
and spread is 70 points average (0.7 USD), Asia Session can even above 100 points
FTMO will be 30 points and ECN account only 10-15 points
Zenith Multi Strategy EA developer
  • #1,843
  • Mar 30, 2026 9:11am Mar 30, 2026 9:11am
@hayseed. Just noticed, I can't see open orders during the calibration phase. Under "Strategy Analysis" it just says "Available when the calibration stage is over". ?

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  • #1,844
  • Mar 30, 2026 9:20am Mar 30, 2026 9:20am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Do you have an example of how many trades you need during calibration to predict the risk multiplier, and what the math behind it looks like? Does everyone get a 25% discount code after opening a new DARWIN account? I haven't received one yet for the new DARWIN account that's currently being calibrated.
//----

posted one or 2 before.......here is one of them from last week...... another is below from today..... the number of trades is shown.....

if you can achieve 8% with low drawdown, you are almost guaranteed the 30k.......

there is a minimum number of 25 trades required during calibration or initial training phase........


don't waste them......h

//-----

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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,845
  • Mar 30, 2026 9:57am Mar 30, 2026 9:57am
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- posted one or 2 before.......here is one of them from last week...... another is below from today..... the number of trades is shown..... if you can achieve 8% with low drawdown, you are almost guaranteed the 30k....... there is a minimum number of 25 trades required during calibration or initial training phase...........
However, this does not explain which criteria can be used during the calibration phase to estimate the risk multiplier that one is likely to receive at the end.

An MT4/MT5 strategy report showing the results of your own strategy isn't very helpful, haha. By the way, those are some pretty impressive numbers you're achieving (profit factor over 80 and 107 trades won in a row, lol). I'd be very happy with an average profit factor of over 2.0, which most people would probably consider "excellent." What cheat code are you using for that?

Quote
A trading strategy boasting a profit factor over 80 and 107 consecutive winning trades is generally considered mathematically improbable in live, long-term, unrestricted markets and often suggests highly optimized backtesting (curve-fitting), selective reporting, or very specific, restricted conditions (such as holding trades for extremely long periods to ensure profit).

While 80%+ win rates are achievable, a profit factor above 80 implies that for every $1 lost, $80 is earned, which is exceptionally high compared to professional standards (1.5 - 2.5 is typical).

Key Observations on High-Win-Rate Strategies

  1. 107 Wins in a Row: Such streaks are incredibly rare. While some strategies can achieve high consecutive wins in backtests, live trading often introduces unexpected losses. A 90% win rate over 1,000 trades may still see small losing streaks, making 107 in a row unlikely without taking extremely small profits.
  2. Profit Factor Meaning: A PF of 80+ indicates an extremely efficient system, but it often stems from either exceptionally tight stop-losses with massive take-profits or a very small, lucky sample size.
  3. Curve-Fitting Risks: A strategy with a "perfect" record is often "curve-fitted"—optimized too specifically to past data and unlikely to perform well in the future.
  4. The "107 Win" Scenario: Reports of such streaks often come from "high probability" trading, such as specialized scalping, using very small take-profits and large stop-losses, which carries high risk if a stop-loss is finally hit.

Realistic Trading Standards

  1. Good Profit Factor: A profit factor of 1.5 to 2.0 is generally considered strong and realistic for long-term, professional trading.
  2. High Win Rate: A sustainable win rate of 60%-70% is considered very high. 80%+ is achievable but rare and often requires extreme risk management (e.g., risking 5 to make 1)

  • #1,846
  • Mar 30, 2026 10:48am Mar 30, 2026 10:48am
Quoting Noisy
A trading strategy boasting a profit factor over 80 and 107 consecutive winning trades is generally considered mathematically improbable in live, long-term, unrestricted markets and often suggests highly optimized backtesting (curve-fitting), selective reporting, or very specific, restricted conditions (such as holding trades for extremely long periods to ensure profit).
//-----

ai is still in it's infancy...... it has a lot yet to learn...... 107 winning trades in a row is very low for me......

what is the possibility of running a 4 minute mile........

don't underestimate someone's determination to silently do what others, including ai, say can't be done.......

darwin eliminates selective reporting......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,847
  • Mar 30, 2026 12:49pm Mar 30, 2026 12:49pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- posted one or 2 before.......here is one of them from last week...... another is below from today..... the number of trades is shown..... if you can achieve 8% with low drawdown, you are almost guaranteed the 30k....... there is a minimum number of 25 trades required during calibration or initial training phase...........
https://www.darwinexzero.com/darwin/...ategy-analysis

This Darwin of yours, for example, shows a profit factor of "1.44". How can there be such a drastic difference compared to a profit factor of "80", as seen in your MetaTrader report? Just wondering. Nevertheless, good results with a drawdown of only -4.60% and a return of 19.5% in 8 months.

Do you have a DARWIN with a guaranteed minimum return of at least 2% over 6 or 12 months yet, or if you don't, over what time period do you calculate to get your costs covered, and possibly even make a profit and how much is it that you need?

I see that you achieved a return of less than 2% for three months for this DARWIN. As I've calculated, one already needs to make > 1% per month in a DARWIN just to cover the costs of the subscription alone (not even including costs for any boosters).
  • #1,848
  • Mar 30, 2026 1:39pm Mar 30, 2026 1:39pm
Quoting Noisy
{quote} https://www.darwinexzero.com/darwin/...ategy-analysis This Darwin of yours, for example, shows a profit factor of "1.44". How can there be such a drastic difference compared to a profit factor of "80", as seen in your MetaTrader report? Just wondering. Nevertheless, good results with a drawdown of only -4.60% and a return of 19.5% in 8 months. Do you have a DARWIN with a guaranteed minimum return of at least 2% over 6 or 12 months yet, or if you don't, over what time period do you calculate to get your costs...
//-----

possibly because the 80 has never had a loss...... it might effect the calculation...... really not sure..... maybe they calculate it different..... i give it no thought.....

my accounts individual metrics can very widely...... they trade different....... below is one of mine with a metaquotes report profit factor of 6.23 and expected payoff of > 500.....

as for returns, it's not something i focus on but feel comfortable saying many of mine average above 2% a month..... maybe most if not all...... not sure.....

as said many times, i expect my costs to be covered the first 30 days..... so if i spend 500 today, i expect to average greater than 500 the first 30 days......

many of the things that concern you i give little or no thought......

i'm more concerned with next week than i am the past..... getting bogged down in last month seems unproductive.......

i am thinking about next weeks trades now...... not last weeks.....h
//------

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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,849
  • Mar 30, 2026 1:57pm Mar 30, 2026 1:57pm
Quoting Noisy
As I've calculated, one already needs to make > 1% per month in a DARWIN just to cover the costs of the subscription alone (not even including costs for any boosters).
i have no idea what this means.......

the account below is a couple days older than 3 months..... so say 3 months......

the next payout is this week...... with that, the total payout will be over 10,000 usd....... in just 3 months...... 1 single account of 20......

that is the only calculation that concerns me......

nothing else matters.......h

//------

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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,850
  • Mar 30, 2026 2:13pm Mar 30, 2026 2:13pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //----- possibly because the 80 has never had a loss...... it might effect the calculation...... really not sure..... maybe they calculate it different..... i give it no thought..... my accounts individual metrics can very widely...... they trade different....... below is one of mine with a metaquotes report profit factor of 6.23 and expected payoff of > 500..... as for returns, it's not something i focus on but feel comfortable saying many of mine average above 2% a month..... maybe most if not all...... not sure..... as said many times,...
That may be true, and it could certainly be due to the different goals one pursues. My goal, or rather, my necessity, is to achieve a reliable, repeatable minimum income through trading. I think it's only natural that "hope," or as Pipmaster once said to me, "just trade," won't help much here. Because the bills still need to be paid, regardless of whether you've earned 1% a month to make that happen, or only 0.5%, or even -4%.

I don't want to discredit or embarrass you in any way; on the contrary, I'm just trying to analyze whether the things you or others post here can help me (so far, this hasn't really been the case).

Looking more closely at the numbers for this one of your DARWINs, I realize that your strategy is geared towards achieving a high win rate with proportionally small gains but larger losses, which is also reflected in the figures. (Avg Win: +0.04%, Avg Loss: -0.30%, Worst negative excursion: -2.39%). I also find the number of trades impressive for what you say is manual trading (Daily trade frequency: 11.68). I have no idea how you manage that manually and still find time for anything else during the day, but hats off to you for that as well.

You once told me that you trade the same strategy across all your DARWINs (if I'm not mistaken). Now you're saying they're all traded differently, which is a bit confusing, but never mind. I had the idea of also using the same strategy across multiple DARWINs of my own, and perhaps profiting from the boosters rather than DarwinIA or investors.

Now I see you were also excluded from Silver on this one DARWIN due to correlation, but that doesn't affect the boosters, right? I could have as many boosters as I want across X of my own DARWINs without worrying about not receiving the payouts, even if the correlation between the DARWINs were too high and I were therefore excluded from silver/gold allocations?
  • #1,851
  • Mar 30, 2026 3:11pm Mar 30, 2026 3:11pm
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #1,852
  • Mar 30, 2026 3:22pm Mar 30, 2026 3:22pm
Quoting Noisy
. I don't want to discredit or embarrass you in any way; on the contrary, I'm just trying to analyze whether the things you or others post here can help me (so far, this hasn't really been the case). Looking more closely at the numbers for this one of your DARWINs, I realize that your strategy is geared towards achieving a high win rate with proportionally small gains but larger losses, which is also reflected in the figures. (Avg Win: +0.04%, Avg Loss: -0.30%, Worst negative excursion: -2.39%). I also find the number of trades impressive for what...
//-----

i don't see how you could possibly embarrass me...... don't waste 15 seconds of your life concerning yourself about that......

your not understanding what my results are implying..... that's normal...... far too much to explain.....

imagine 20 people used the same basic strategy...... such as lets say a psar break...... however one might use the 5 minute chart, another the 15, another the 60 and so on...... one might trade gold, another silver, another nat gas , another the nasdaq and so on........

same strategy..... radical differing results...... just take it as that..... no point in going further.....

as mentioned before, correlation does not enter my mind..... it's meaningless to me......

both darwin and the metatrader report guarantee accuracy in reporting...... that is why i like both...... there is no smoke and mirrors....


one more time, think today about what your trades will be next week....... once i excepted that, trading became slightly easier......

below is my 100% strategy...... remember you said it was too complicated....... surely most would agree.....

it works for me......h
//-----


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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,853
  • Mar 30, 2026 3:57pm Mar 30, 2026 3:57pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} i have no idea what this means....... the account below is a couple days older than 3 months..... so say 3 months...... the next payout is this week...... with that, the total payout will be over 10,000 usd....... in just 3 months...... 1 single account of 20...... that is the only calculation that concerns me...... nothing else matters.......h //------ {image}
However, you still need to deduct the cost of the 3M boosters, plus any time you might have spent (unless it's free). Another potential outcome would have been if you hadn't made a profit in those three months but had already paid 3k. But yeah, good if it works for you that way.
  • #1,854
  • Mar 30, 2026 4:06pm Mar 30, 2026 4:06pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} I'm $4 in profit already.
$210.66 here.

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  • #1,855
  • Edited Mar 31, 2026 12:04am Mar 30, 2026 7:48pm | Edited Mar 31, 2026 12:04am
Quoting Noisy
Based on the data I've collected, the following picture emerges across all DARWINs: Average return: 2.58% Average drawdown: -13.67% Average AuM (Assets Under Management): 26,997 € Average number of investors: 46
Forgetting the first few months, do you have any statistics on the number of profitable Darwins where Max Capacity Investment $ never drops below 1 billion dollars (1,000 MM)?

or maybe even 1/2 a billion dollars :-)
(Green Diamond) Pip Impact Member (top 1%)
  • #1,856
  • Mar 31, 2026 4:00am Mar 31, 2026 4:00am
Quoting hayseed
hey cb..... that's a good question...... just a guess but the average drawdown of the top 10% would be between 13 and 15%...... my worst is 6.53%...... my average drawdown across all 20 accounts is 3.6%...... of course it is not fair to compare my results to the top 10%..... they have traded for much longer and thru wider variety of conditions...... the maximum drawdown since inception might be important...... the rating calculator uses the drawdown over the last 6 months i think..... it might be more important.....h //----- {image}
Good info. Thanks!!!!!!!!!
  • #1,857
  • Edited 4:26am Mar 31, 2026 4:11am | Edited 4:26am
Quoting codemaster75
{quote} Forgetting the first few months, do you have any statistics on the number of profitable Darwins where Max Capacity Investment $ never drops below 1 billion dollars (1,000 MM)? or maybe even 1/2 a billion dollars :-)
Not yet, but I'm trying to find out. However only very few have ever raised more than $1 million in AuM (it's less than 1%, about 90 DARWINs). So I believe that there are only a handful. Most show significant fluctuations in investor funds, which is why I personally consider this rather unsuitable for my own goal of achieving a constant minimum return.

The booster allocations (albeit virtual) have the advantage that it's "safe" for a certain period and that makes it easier to plan with. I put "safe" in quotation marks because Darwinex could adjust or discontinue this at any time as needed, or block withdrawals on this capital, etc. (See what happened to the "permanent" allocations...)

Edit: Just noticed you wrote 1 billion, lol. No, there’s not one with such number of AuM. Not even across all DARWINs together.
  • #1,858
  • Mar 31, 2026 5:33am Mar 31, 2026 5:33am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Not yet, but I'm trying to find out. However only very few have ever raised more than $1 million in AuM (it's less than 1%, about 90 DARWINs). So I believe that there are only a handful. Most show significant fluctuations in investor funds, which is why I personally consider this rather unsuitable for my own goal of achieving a constant minimum return. The booster allocations (albeit virtual) have the advantage that it's "safe" for a certain period and that makes it easier to plan with. I put "safe" in quotation marks because Darwinex could...
He's asing about max capacity...this figure is the highest AUM a paticular Darwin can obtain.
Been on vacation for 9 days, I see nothing much has changed here.
  • #1,859
  • Mar 31, 2026 7:51am Mar 31, 2026 7:51am
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} He's asing about max capacity...this figure is the highest AUM a paticular Darwin can obtain. Been on vacation for 9 days, I see nothing much has changed here.
Okay, I misunderstood. I'll have to check again; I haven't collected any data on maximum capacity yet.
  • #1,860
  • Mar 31, 2026 8:32am Mar 31, 2026 8:32am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Okay, I misunderstood. I'll have to check again; I haven't collected any data on maximum capacity yet.
I mus say, I find it very ironic....for one who questions so much about returns and how much time you must devote to charts to generate such return..........
You sure spend a lot of hours trying to ascertain everything wrong with Darwin and trading in general.....what is your ROI on this time spent?
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