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Why Smart Traders Watch the First Hour (Initial Balance Guide)

  • #401
  • Edited 12:47pm Mar 14, 2026 11:18am | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting eadweardcap
Rough week. A lot of volatility and markets are just dropping all together. For times like this is why I'm trying to improve this strategy. I've already seen that the strategy can perform when markets are in an uptrend but I gotta make it perform in choppy and bearish markets. {image}
While trading pennies accounts, it is OK, but when you start trying to trade real dollars, after this DD, you will be done trading. Happens to 95% of "traders".

Continue working on technique, it is a must to bring DD down to at max 12%.

This week I had - 7.3% DD and ended with + 5.2%(last trade was displayed here)

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15612011
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  • #402
  • Mar 14, 2026 2:04pm Mar 14, 2026 2:04pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} It is a valid technique, however one must consider that SL would be at times much larger then for just breakout. And then, the next step is to move your SL, etc....it is never ending loop of adjustments. But, one who works hard will find the "proper" way.
Totally true, but getting whipped also tears up pips.
I dont trade one set instrument. I have a select basket that i scan and identify the best opportunity.
My stop is also dynamic. I also trade with EAs as i after 30 years of sitting in font of screen I figured lifes to short to do so and being mechanical I dont tend to override my trading plan. The pic is my dash, obviously all out of whack as its Sunday here in Bali, basically its just Horses for courses, what works for one, is a disaster for another..
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Im only here for the Guzzoline...
  • #403
  • Mar 14, 2026 2:21pm Mar 14, 2026 2:21pm
Agree and I also trade via ea, all my knowledge and experience is in the ea. Took 3 years to develop it, but it is the only way to go, as ea does not have MindFuck(Fear and Greed)factor and will follow exact MM as designed. If I ever override my ea with my occasional mindfuck, I always perform worse then my ea, no competition
  • #404
  • Mar 17, 2026 1:52pm Mar 17, 2026 1:52pm
Hey everyone, here are today's trades. Nothing on Dow Jones but there was an opportunity there.
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  • #405
  • Mar 19, 2026 10:19am Mar 19, 2026 10:19am
Today's trades! Losses on all 3 U.S. indexes. Volatility and uncertainty in the markets continues. This is a good time to stay on the sidelines and rework the strategy.
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  • #406
  • Mar 24, 2026 7:59am Mar 24, 2026 7:59am
Hi everyone! Planning on getting back to this project this week. I had been working on another project that you can see here:

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15626522

Going to be doing a lot of back testing on break out strategy. The goal is to reduce losses and drawdown, avoiding fake outs and keeping consistent returns in choppy, volatile markets like the ones we've been seeing these past couple of months.
  • #407
  • Mar 24, 2026 1:21pm Mar 24, 2026 1:21pm
Today's trades. I'm testing a version of the EA that measures the range size and closes the position at a certain indicated time of the day. So for example today's trades on the Nasdaq futures show a position stopped out, then another position placed on an opposite signal but was closed out because of the time.
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  • #408
  • Edited 11:26am Mar 25, 2026 9:00am | Edited 11:26am
Good morning all! EA came through with two shorts today on the S&P500 and Dow Jones. Nasdaq didn't get triggered for some reason. Maybe I gotta reset the EA.

EDIT: Nasdaq short didnt trigger cause I'm using a range size filter. So the size of the range didnt meet the criteria, no trade taken.
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  • #409
  • Mar 26, 2026 8:56am Mar 26, 2026 8:56am
Today's trades. May have to adjust the Nasdaq range size criteria cause I missed an opportunity there this morning.
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  • #410
  • Mar 26, 2026 4:11pm Mar 26, 2026 4:11pm
Okay guys I want to share results of a few back tests that I'm doing and would like some input from you guys on optimizing this strategy.

Back Test 001
Parameters:
BO Session Start: 16:30
BO Session End: 16:44 (15min ORB)
Range Size Minimum: 15
Range Size Max: 25
Time to close trades: 20:00
Lot Size: 1% of Equity
SL: Opposite of BO Range
TP: 100% of SL
Close Above or Below Range: No
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Back Test 002
Parameters:
BO Session Start: 16:30
BO Session End: 16:44 (15min ORB)
Range Size Minimum: 15
Range Size Max: 25
Time to close trades: 20:00
Lot Size: 1% of Equity
SL: Opposite of BO Range
TP: 100% of SL
Close Above or Below Range: Yes
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Back Test 003
Parameters:
BO Session Start: 16:30
BO Session End: 16:44 (15min ORB)
Range Size Minimum: 15
Range Size Max: 25
Time to close trades: 20:00
Lot Size: 1% of Equity
SL: Opposite of BO Range
TP: 100% of SL
Close Above or Below Range: Yes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Back Test 005
Parameters:
BO Session Start: 16:30
BO Session End: 17:29 (1hr IB)
Range Size Minimum: 25
Range Size Max: 35
Time to close trades: 20:00
Lot Size: 1% of Equity
SL: Opposite of BO Range
TP: 80% of SL
Close Above or Below Range: Yes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Back Test 006
Parameters:
BO Session Start: 16:30
BO Session End: 17:29 (1hr IB)
Range Size Minimum: 25
Range Size Max: 35
Time to close trades: 20:00
Lot Size: 1% of Equity
SL: Opposite of BO Range
TP: 50% of SL
Close Above or Below Range: Yes
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So here are variations for this strategy and as you guys can see they are not good. The average win rate is between 50% to 55%.

I'd like to hear your thoughts and how to optimize this strategy.
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  • #411
  • Edited 12:54pm Mar 27, 2026 11:45am | Edited 12:54pm
More backtesting results:

Back Test 007
Parameters:
BO Session Start: 16:30
BO Session End: 17:29 (1hr IB)
Range Size Minimum: 15
Range Size Max: 25
Time to close trades: 20:00
Lot Size: 1% of Equity
SL: Opposite of BO Range
TP: 80% of SL
Close Above or Below Range: Yes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2026-03-27 at 12.52.11 PM.png Size: 81 KB



Back Test 008
Parameters:
BO Session Start: 16:30
BO Session End: 17:29 (1hr IB)
Range Size Minimum: 15
Range Size Max: 25
Time to close trades: 20:00
Lot Size: 1% of Equity
SL: Opposite of BO Range
TP: 100% of SL
Close Above or Below Range: Yes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2026-03-27 at 12.53.54 PM.png Size: 78 KB
  • #412
  • Edited 2:10pm Mar 27, 2026 12:42pm | Edited 2:10pm
So this is my take on it. After years of trading the cable exclusively, I switched to trading a large basket and identifying best trade opportunity.
I look for the most likely to break out, I think of it as the one who spring is wound the tightest and ready to go boom..
The excel sheet here are the results from back testing my EA. I use python to loop through all the crosses in MT5
the 2nd pic is my Dash.. Today the USDJPY was the pick.
I guess all Im saying is instead of trying to make this fit one cross, identify the cross to fit the EA on any given day
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Im only here for the Guzzoline...
  • #413
  • Mar 30, 2026 9:15am Mar 30, 2026 9:15am
Today's trades. S&P 500 didnt take because the range size was not within size criteria.
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  • #414
  • Mar 30, 2026 9:24am Mar 30, 2026 9:24am
Quoting TheCableman
So this is my take on it. After years of trading the cable exclusively, I switched to trading a large basket and identifying best trade opportunity. I look for the most likely to break out, I think of it as the one who spring is wound the tightest and ready to go boom.. The excel sheet here are the results from back testing my EA. I use python to loop through all the crosses in MT5 the 2nd pic is my Dash.. Today the USDJPY was the pick. I guess all Im saying is instead of trying to make this fit one cross, identify the cross to fit the EA on any...
Hey man thanks for sharing this. So, I have a few follow up questions if you dont mind:

  1. You trade opening range all across the board? Meaning on all instruments?

Looking at your dashboard:

  1. The "AVG" is the average amount of pips or points that the symbol has moved an X amount of bars or days?
  2. "Today" is just how much the symbol has moved today correct?
  3. "Status" is if the symbol is above or below the range?
  4. How do you manage the different market open times? Meaning currencies in NY open at 16:00 and futures market opens at 16:30?

  • #415
  • Mar 30, 2026 12:02pm Mar 30, 2026 12:02pm
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} Hey man thanks for sharing this. So, I have a few follow up questions if you dont mind: You trade opening range all across the board? Meaning on all instruments? Looking at your dashboard: The "AVG" is the average amount of pips or points that the symbol has moved an X amount of bars or days? "Today" is just how much the symbol has moved today correct? "Status" is if the symbol is above or below the range? How do you manage the different market open times? Meaning currencies in NY open at 16:00 and futures market opens at 16:30?
The Av = Av pips for time period set ( 16:30 - 17:29 )
Today and status are as you say..

I dont adjust for the two opens, just use NY as base time for both. ( I also have bots that trade Asia, and London )

Basically what i have found over the years by just trading the Cable is some days a trade is just not there. By having a basket i can identify the most likely cross to go take off when it breaks range..

To be honest it hardly ever returns a futures result and at present Im in the process of culling the list to target the best performing pairs based on my trade history.
Always a work in progress
Im only here for the Guzzoline...
  • #416
  • Mar 31, 2026 9:02am Mar 31, 2026 9:02am
Today's trades. Nasdaq range didnt meet the size criteria so no trade was taken even though there was a huge opportunity there.
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  • #417
  • Apr 1, 2026 9:15am Apr 1, 2026 9:15am
Today's trades. Only a small Dow Jones short. S&P and Nasdaq didnt meet the range size criteria.
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  • #418
  • Apr 2, 2026 8:59am Apr 2, 2026 8:59am
Today's trades.
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  • #419
  • Apr 2, 2026 9:47am Apr 2, 2026 9:47am
I am only posting because of the interesting situation and how control of the MindFuck(Fear and Greed) worked out today.

I was up on the Short trade for about +120 points but waited for my TP and ended up -119 points and when I had +200 points on the Long trade, I had to control my urge(MindFuck) to get out with profit for today, but because knowing my stats and how to control MindFuck, I stayed in the Long trade until full TP of +511 points.
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  • #420
  • Edited 10:07am Apr 3, 2026 9:20am | Edited 10:07am
This was a rare loosing week, but very happy with how I managed Position sizing, MM and controlling MindFuck. -6.5%.

Last 2 trades are shown in the post above.
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