Logical Risk Management

Really like your approach, mate.

Even though my approach is very different from yours, your meticulous attention to reading the market conditions and managing risk is a joy to read and follow along with. Respect.

Hey Everyone,

Thinks are still looking decent and in favor of us. Market has made a new low and continues to show pressure. As such, I have done the following:

1) Removed Sell Limit Order at 1.1575.
2) Added two new Sell Limit Orders.

ACTIVE:
1) T2026-B014-001 - Spot SHORT EUR/USD @ 0.60 lots. Entry: 1.16228, SL: 1.16180, Initial TP: 1.14800, R:R: PROTECTED, Risk Allocation: 0%
2)T2026-B014-002 - Spot SHORT EUR/USD @ 0.73 lots. Entry: 1.16000, SL: 1.1600, Initial TP: 1.14800, R:R: PROTECTED, Risk Allocation: 0%

PENDING:
1) PLANNING - Sell Limit SHORT EUR/USD @ 0.77 lots. Entry: 1.15300, Initial SL: 1.15700, Initial TP: 1.14800, R:R: 1.25, Risk Allocation: 38%
2) PLANNING - Sell Limit SHORT EUR/USD @ 1.64 lots. Entry: 1.15400, Initial SL: 1.15700, Initial TP: 1.14800, R:R: 2.00, Risk Allocation: 62%

Nothing was changed for the two active trades. They are still protected, and we are currently looking to add additional.

Risk:
We currently have a live exposure of +0.016R (+$65.79) +/- swaps, commission, and total exposure at -0.184R (-$734.21).

Reward:
We currently have a live target of +0.442R (+$1,769.79) +/- swaps, commission, and total possible target at +0.785R (+$3,198.79).

We are currently risk-free, with possible exposure if Sell Limit gets filled. All possible scenarios have been considered and will continue to be evaluated. Let's see what happens...

Hey Everyone,

That's it. Our TP hit. As a result, I have done the following:
1) Deleted both Sell Limit Orders for 1.15300 and 1.15400.

It would have been great if we caught another short with these prices. We were only a few pips away from having 1.15300 filled, but that's the way it goes sometimes.

Trade Summary:
1) T2026-B014-001 - Close: 1.14800. Commission: -$3.00, Swap: +$2.19. Total Win: 0.214R, $855.99
2) T2026-B014-002 - Close: 1.14800. Commission: -$3.65, Swap: +$2.03. Total Win: 0.228R, $913.80
TOTAL NET: +0.442R, +$1,769.79

I think overall, we played this fairly well. Reviewing the trade in its entirety, we held T2026-B014-001 for 2d 12h 36m and T2026-B014-002 for 1d 22h 9m. Initially, we had Sell Orders above these two trades' entry points - but we realized (through technical analysis) that it was not likely to be filled, and as such, we entered a SPOT position for T2026-B014-001. Once market moved our direction and gave us structure to place T2026-B014-001 to BE+, we did so. We continued to have Sell Limit Orders at resistance levels but ultimately, they did not get filled. When market structure allowed us, we added another trade, T2026-B014-002, and continued to have Sell Limit Orders. Market continued down and Sell Limit Orders were cancelled. Market eventually hit our TP level and T2026-B014-001 and T2026-B014-002 were taken out. As such, I removed all Sell Limit Orders that were pending.

We believe price will continue down, but given that it is Friday and uncertainty with the war in Iran, we decided to tighten our TP to get out before the weekend (recall that our original TP was 1.14400.)
The plan worked out well - and even if it moves down before weekend, there is nothing to be upset about. We followed our plan, and it succeeded this time.

We are now at equity high, erasing the previous small drawdown we had to start off Phase 2.

March (as of current post):
2W, 1L, 66.7%.
Net Profit: $1,651.44/+0.41R

Have a great weekend. Let's keep a good attitude and mindset going into next week and let's all pray that this war in Iran ends soon.....

I really like how you protect the position first and only then think about adding more. In my experience this is the kind of risk management that keeps you in the game for long time, because the best trade is still useless if the downside is not controlled

"Very detailed risk management approach! Protecting SL and tightening TP during uncertain market conditions is always a smart move. Risk management is the most important part of trading. Thanks for sharing!"

This is what you call a pro trader who keeps things simple, instead of trying to catch impossible RR or trying to juggle with different assets, losing focus at the end.
Still wonder about one thing, how you managed to be on the challenge for so long. Half a year it’s quite a big time for passing the challenge. I used to be on the same boat for smaller 10k challenges and it became more and more frustrating, until I couldn't handle my emotions and gambled. That’s why prefer 1 step assessments and only day trading since then.

Just had a good drawdown from when I started up in June until August. Had to climb my way back out of the hole month by month after that.

This is my first ever prop firm despite trading for sixteen years and let's say there was just some getting used to.

Thank you for your input and question!

I see your Point, Brandon. I find it very fascinating how you trade because you chose the hard, save way to trade and you even "demolish" your PF a bit. I saw your PF on first round was about 1.1 (240000+, 216000-), 42.6% winrate on 80 plus and 108 losers if i'm correct. Your Pf would be probably 1.2 if you would stop to add to your position but of course it is a legitimate way to pyramid - although I cannot recommend that on forex because the market is different to indices like DAX or Dow etc. - If you master Forex you can make millions per year but it is one of the hardest markets in the world, the most professional market but also the most stable market. I only found one method to trade it profitable but it is not a "nice" way to trade so I added other markets to to reduce my exposure.

I have high respect on traders like you to stay in game with such a small PF and disciplined Risk-Mangement and patience. That is professional. I hunt more for 1.5 PF (took me a decade to manage that) but you cannot make more than 40% per Year risking a moderate Drawdown. I also cannot skale it up very fast -except someone gives me a million dollar. But that's ok. Forex ist steady and stable. That's what I like about it.

Thank you for your input! You're actually incorrect. I believe my PF for first phase was 1.432R! I still have lots to improve, and a goal of mine this year is increase this metric.

CALCULATION:

Total Winning R : +16.542R

Total Losing R (abs) : 11.548R

Profit Factor = 16.542 / 11.548 = 1.432

My current phase (Phase 2) is 2.966R PF. Screenshot below as well.

CALCULATION:

Total Winning R : +0.442R

Total Losing R (abs) : 0.149R

Profit Factor = 0.442 / 0.149 = 2.966

I think your thesis is more of a fact than a thesis, haha.

We should keep our risk small enough until our edge works itself out.

The hardest part of trading for me psychologically was accepting that I can’t profit every month.

I used to view trading purely as a business. As a business owner, of course I expected to make a profit every month—otherwise, what would I eat tomorrow?

But now, I have a more conservative view of the market. I treat trading more like investing. You can’t profit every month, but at least you can aim to beat the market every quarter.

need to thank mark douglas for that!

Hey Everyone,

Been a busy week so far and just a quick update on what has transpired since last week:

March 16 - Entered Sell Limit for T2025-B015-001, which got filled at 1.15108. Planned R:R was only 0.91, but we had additional Sell Limits at the time, and it would have averaged out much higher if they all got filled. Unfortunately, they did not and when we began to see upward retracement, we closed at small profit on March 17.

T2025-B015-001: Net Realized R: +0.01, Net P/L: $30.36

March 18 - I entered Spot on T2026-B016-001 and T2026-B016-002 after market structure showed changes, at 1.15159 and 1.15133 respectively. Market went our way fairly fast, at which point we protected both positions - SL to BE+.

March 19 - I entered Sell Limits at two levels T2026-B016-003 and T2026-B016-004, and both were filled at 1.1475 and 1.14852 respectively. Currently, there are no changes to these two trades as market structure has not yet allowed us to.

Our current exposure for the four trades that are active: -0.279R (-$1,115.07)
Our current reward for the four trades that are active: +0.968R (+$3,870.93)

Should market continue down, we will look at possible areas to protect T2026-B016-003 and T2026-B016-004 (when market structure allows us to). If possible and if we have enough runway, we will look for additional areas to enter short, depending on the pace and strength of the downward move.

Should market reverse up and approaches 1.1500, we will need to reassess and possibly close manually at a loss as soon as we can, while having T2026-B016-001 and T2026-B016-002 hit SL at BE+. Any upward movement toward 1.1500 would not be acceptable or logical to the context in which we entered the trades in, and therefore, will be closed.

Hey Everyone,

Wow, what a day! Here is what happened since our last update (in order):
1) T2026-B016-004 was protected, SL to BE+.
2) T2026-B016-005 was entered at SPOT (1.14515), SL: 1.1485, TP: 1.1425, R:R: 0.79
3) Both T2026-B016-004 and T2026-B016-005 were stopped out:

- T2026-B016-004 - Close: 1.14810. Commission: -$10.00, Swap: +$0.00. Net P/L: +0.02R, $74.00

- T2026-B016-005 - Close: 1.14852. Commission: -$10.00, Swap: +$0.00. Net P/L: -0.17R, -$684.00

4) Market then had ECB Press Conference and shortly after, cancelled all our context for this trade idea as market began breaking 1.1500. At the time, with only T2026-B016-003 (entered spot at 1.14750, SL: 1.1515, TP: 1.1425, R:R 1.25) unprotected and at a loss, I decided to just leave it untouched. The thinking at the time was: "I had already accounted and for this exposure (-0.15R), and either I wait to have it take me out at SL where I can truly confirm our context is broken, or I do it manually and potentially risk a Reversal happening, rinsing me out." I decided on leaving it untouched and shortly after, it got stopped out at 1.15149.

- T2026-B016-003 - Close: 1.15149. Commission: -$7.50, Swap: +$0.00. Net P/L: -0.15R, -$606.00

5) Shortly after, T2026-B016-001 and T2026-B016-002 were also stopped out at protection.

- T2026-B016-001 - Close: 1.15116. Commission: -$6.50, Swap: +$2.50. Net P/L: +0.01R, +$51.90
- T2026-B016-002 - Close: 1.15116. Commission: -$4.30, Swap: +$1.65. Net P/L: +0.01R, +$11.97

In totality, T2026-B016 as a whole/trade idea:

TOTAL NET: -0.288R, -$1,152.13

SUMMARY
Overall and looking back in hindsight, I don't think anything could have been done differently. Market was very cunning, and we were only 25 pips away from TP at one point. At that moment in time, everything was going according to plan, and there was no reason to conduct a manual close of any positions. We continued with our plan and market eventually began reversing, taking out positions one-by-one; most protected, two not.

I chop this one up to that it's just the way she goes sometimes, and most things were out of our control. The things that were in our control, was risk, and we properly managed it with the hand given to us, which ultimately allowed us to reduce our exposed risk while adding more.

With it now being Friday, I don't see what else we can do for this week. As such, have a great weekend and I will keep you updated next week!

March (as of current post):
6W, 3L, 66.7%.
Net Profit: $529.67/+0.13R

Hey Everybody,

I am currently in KL for the next few weeks so I apologize for the lack of updates. I have been thinking about the format in which I should document this journey, and I have been leaning towards weekly. It will keep the thread more concise rather than daily 'noise' updates. If anyone has any opinions or thoughts about it, please let me know.

Moreover, with the format of the text editor on the forum, I have found it extremely difficult to format my posts in a way that is clean/readable as I would like to post certain screenshots in specific spots of the post. I have tried many different ways - to no avail. As such, I will probably just make a new post for each of my trades? I think that is the cleanest way for now.

With that in mind, here is T2026-B017:
Summary: These three trades were placed as Sell Limits. On March 23 right before NY open, Trump came out and made an announcement that there were ongoing negotiations. This caused oil price to fall and USD weakened.

All three trades were filled within seconds of each other and subsequently stopped out in mere seconds. This was just fundamentals that we could not account for - although perhaps we should have kept in mind of current political turmoil and reduced our exposure.

Net R: -0.167R Net P/L: -$666.83

T2026-B018:
Summary: This is the one basket that I think was poor in execution on my part. We had context for Longs but it was not particularly the strongest. I ended up placing two Spot Longs within two and a half hours of each other. I don't think it was wrong to enter (we did have context) but the second Spot was not needed and it was a preventable loss.

Both trades were in for six hours and four hours respectively, before they were taken out at SL.

Net R: -0.264R Net P/L: -$1,056.28

T2026-B019:
Summary: We had a confirmed technical pattern and took it at Spot Short. However, market conditions were choppy and we got stopped out merely an hour and a half after we entered.

As such, I concluded on Thursday that current market regime is too noisy/choppy for catching any swings and we took the week off early.

Unfortunately, March ended our three-month winning streak, at -0.40R, -$1,601.44.

Although that is unfortunate, we must trust the system and our journal. I review my positions at the end of every month and ran my stats from December 2025 to current in a Monte Carlo simulation, which still gives me a 86.8% chance to hit 2.50R within our next 100 trades.

We will continue to focus, and take trades when we see them. This is just variance, and it is just a matter of time before we get out of this DD and hit our target.