What happen in the market today?

AUD/JPY extends gains to 112.846, a multi-year high.

The AUD/JPY cross pair rose for two consecutive days after a week-long consolidation. Yesterday, the AUD/JPY drew a long-bodied bullish candle with virtually no shadow. The price formed a high of 112.846, a low of 111.289, and a close of 112.504.

The main factor driving the AUD/JPY's rise is the differential in Australian and Japanese interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Japan (RBA) recently raised interest rates to around 3.85% to control inflation in February 2026. Recent data shows stable wage growth at 3.1% year-on-year, giving the RBA room to monitor the impact of the increase without rushing into additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains very cautious about raising interest rates and may delay the next increase until mid-2026. The BoJ interest rate is currently at 0.75%, its highest level in 30 years. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino emphasized yesterday that the Japanese economy is beginning to show sustainable inflation dynamics.

This difference in yields between the RBA and the BoJ has prompted investors to engage in carry trades, borrowing cheap yen to buy the higher-yielding AUD, thus supporting the rise in AUD/JPY.

The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index rose slightly to 91.6 in March. However, short-term concerns remain due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices, which could depress purchasing power.

The Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) slow pace of interest rate hikes. Japan is also heavily dependent on energy imports, so rising oil prices put pressure on the economy. Even in times of global conflict, the yen is no longer its former safe-haven status. This situation has caused the JPY to weaken against many currencies, including the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Today, market focus is expected to be on the release of economic data from China, Australia's main trading partner, and developments in global energy prices.

AUD/JPY is currently trading around 112.500. The short-term trend indicates consolidation with a moderate bullish trend, but is being held back by global risk-off sentiment. The estimated nearest support is around 111.80, with the next support target around 111.40. The nearest resistance is around 113.10, with the next resistance target around 113.50. This forecast could be wrong.

GBP/JPY rises despite the Middle East conflict, supporting safe-haven currency

The GBP/JPY cross showed bullish sentiment during the trading session on Wednesday, March 11th. The price drew a long bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 213,301, a low of 211,928, and a close of 213,216.

The bullish sentiment in the GBP/JPY pair indicates a weaker JPY despite the Middle East conflict, supporting the JPY, which is considered a safe-haven currency. Rising oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts have increased global inflation. Japan, which relies heavily on energy imports, is being hurt by rising oil prices, which weaken the yen.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to hold interest rates at around 0.75% at its March meeting, although a hike to around 1% by mid-2026 is possible. The expected very gradual tightening means the interest rate differential with the UK remains large, thus maintaining the yen's weakness. However, verbal intervention by the Japanese government, which remains wary of excessive currency volatility, has made market participants cautious about possible intervention.

In the UK, geopolitical conflicts driving up energy prices could keep inflation high, so the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to maintain high interest rates for longer. Some traders are even starting to predict a possible interest rate hike in late 2026 if inflation remains high. This supports the GBP's relative strength against the JPY.

UK GDP projections for 2026 are in the low range of around 1.0%. This projection limits GBP's strength.

Technically, the GBP/JPY daily range is estimated at 210.80-214.00. The nearest support is around 210.80; the next support is around 210.20. The nearest resistance is around 213.30, and the next resistance is around 214.00. This forecast could be wrong.

USD/CAD Awaits Important Data Releases from Both Countries

The USD/CAD commodity currency pair closed yesterday with a bullish candle, featuring a long body and virtually no shadows. The price reached a high of 1.36380, a low of 1.35766, and closed at 1.36378.

Today's market sentiment is expected to be influenced by the release of key economic data from the US and Canada, which could trigger volatility.

Today, Canada will release its February unemployment rate and employment change data. Current consensus indicates the unemployment rate will remain stable at 6.7%-6.8 %. Stronger-than-expected employment figures usually tend to support the CAD.

As a commodity currency, the CAD is gaining support from rising oil prices, with WTI currently trading in the $87- $95 range per barrel. Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are the main catalyst keeping oil prices high, thus limiting USD/CAD's gains.

The market is beginning to see a greater likelihood of a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England (BOC) due to inflation driven by high energy prices. If these expectations strengthen, they could support the CAD.

Traders will focus on the Personal Income and Spending data, as well as the previously released preliminary inflation (CPI) data of 0.3%, which has led the market to speculate that the Fed will be cautious in lowering interest rates.

The US dollar remains a safe haven amid geopolitical instability, although global uncertainty continues to make the USD a sought-after asset. Therefore, USDCAD movements are likely to be in a consolidation phase or a limited rebound.

Today is expected to be volatile for USDCAD, driven by the release of Canadian jobs data and US consumer sentiment. The price range is estimated to be around 1.35500-1.36500.

Oil Price Projections Amidst the Iran War Conflict by Major Institutions

WTI oil prices are currently trading at approximately $95- $99 per barrel after surging more than 35% in the past week due to the conflict. At the end of the week, XTIUSD drew a bullish candle with a long wick at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 97.40, a low of 91.21, and a close of 97.32.

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran triggered a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that diverts approximately 20% of the world's oil supply. Tanker disruptions disrupted global oil flows and drove up energy prices. Several major oil fields in the Gulf also temporarily shut down production, eliminating millions of barrels per day from the global market.

The Strait of Hormuz closure has created a very high geopolitical risk premium, prompting speculators and hedge funds to become long in oil, thereby supporting price increases. Although oil prices briefly surged, volatility remains high as the market also considers other factors, such as the US release of strategic oil reserves.

EIA members recently approved the release of massive crude oil reserves to curb the global price surge. This caused prices to correct below $90 a few days ago. Several countries, including Japan and Australia, have reportedly begun releasing their strategic oil reserves to alleviate supply shortages. This has reduced the risk of extreme price spikes or of price increases being limited.

Major institutions such as JP Morgan and the IEA predict a supply surplus of 3.8 million barrels throughout 2026 due to strong production growth outside of OPEC+, such as the US, Brazil, and Guyana.

The latest EIA report shows a much higher-than-expected increase in US oil stocks of $3.8 million barrels, putting downward pressure on oil prices.

The IEA estimates that oil consumption growth in 2026 will slow to around 640,000 barrels per day due to a weakening global economy and high energy prices. In the medium term, prices could decline once the crisis subsides.

Several investment banks have raised their price targets for the Middle East conflict. Goldman Sachs projects an average WTI price target for March-April of approximately $98- $110, with a fourth-quarter 2026 target of $67 per barrel. If disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz are severe, prices could reach above $110. Wall Street banks predict that, once the crisis subsides, prices will return to $50- $60 per barrel.

The current price trend is bullish due to the war in the Middle East and supply risks. However, gains are limited by the release of strategic reserves and the prospect of medium-term oversupply. Today's price forecast is approximately $95- $105, with the highest institutional target at $110. If Iran completely closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could reach $120- $140. This forecast could be wrong.

Gold prices briefly broke below $5,000 amid hawkish Fed expectations

Gold prices fell below the $5,000 level on Monday, continuing a two-week decline amid the military conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. Yesterday, gold prices briefly dipped to a low of $4,966 after breaking through the psychological $5,000 level. Prices then corrected upwards, reaching a high of $5,137 and closing at $5,009.

Although gold is a safe-haven asset amid the US-Israel and Iran military confrontations, its price declined. This could be due to profit-taking and investors' need for liquidity to cover losses in other instruments due to global market volatility.

Inflation concerns due to high energy prices have led the market to expect the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance by maintaining interest rate hikes for longer or even raising them to curb inflation. This has supported the USD and put pressure on gold, a non-yielding asset. In recent days, the strengthening US dollar and rising US Treasury yields have been the main pressures on gold.

The US-Israel and Iran conflict continues to increase global risks and energy prices due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This situation could trigger increased tensions because it is not only the US that is affected, but also European countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz for tanker transit.

The market's current focus is on the release of US economic data and interest rate decisions from several central banks this week. The market is also awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting on March 17-18. These central bank decisions and comments could trigger significant movements in gold prices.

The strength of the US dollar is also a concern. The DXY briefly reached a high above 100, pressuring gold prices, which then pulled back to around 99. Technically, when the US dollar rises, gold prices tend to fall. The Iran war and energy crisis could trigger energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which could increase the risk of global inflation because oil prices could surge, theoretically supporting safe-haven demand.

The nearest gold support is estimated at around $4,966, with the next support at around $4,881. The nearest resistance is around $5,064, and the next resistance is at around $5,163. This forecast could be wrong.

AUD/USD rises due to monetary policy divergence amid global geopolitical tensions

The AUD/USD commodity currency pair has risen for two consecutive days. Yesterday, the price drew a bullish candle with a long body candle and small shadows at the top and bottom. The price formed a high of 0.71182, a low of 0.70491, and a close of 0.71053.

The AUD/USD pair exhibited very interesting dynamics due to the monetary policy divergence between Australia and the United States, coupled with geopolitical tensions.

On Tuesday, March 17, the RBA surprisingly raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.10%. The RBA Governor stated that domestic inflation remains too high at around 3.8%, and risks are to the upside. This move supported the AUD exchange rate as the market began to price in the possibility of further hikes in May.

Tomorrow morning, Australia will release Labor Force data. If the unemployment rate remains low at around 4.1%, this could further support the AUD's strength.

The Fed is scheduled to release its interest rate decision tonight. The market predicts a 99% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range. However, the market's primary focus is on the dot plot and Jerome Powell's speech. The conflict in the Middle East has caused oil prices to soar to $100, creating an inflation dilemma for the Fed.

As a commodity currency, the AUD typically strengthens when risk sentiment is positive. However, the Iran war has fueled uncertainty. Interestingly, rising energy prices often benefit Australian commodity exports, supporting the AUD, despite the risk of risk aversion. Strengthening gold and energy provide fundamental support for the AUD as a natural resource exporter.

On the other hand, the USD remains quite strong due to global uncertainty, which has increased safe-haven demand, and risk-off sentiment, which has kept US yields high. However, there are signs of weakening in US economic data, such as retail sales and the previous NFP.

The estimated nearest support for AUDUSD is around 0.7040, with the next support target around 0.6990. The nearest resistance is around 0.7120, with the next resistance target around 0.7180. This forecast could be wrong.

Silver experiences a downward spiral amid concerns about an economic slowdown

Silver prices yesterday drew a bearish candle, extending their six-day losing streak. Silver prices reached a high of 80,173, a low of 74,996, and a close of 75,363.

Market sentiment toward the XAGUSD pair is currently under significant pressure following the FOMC meeting results announced on March 18th.

The Fed decided to maintain interest rates in the 3.50-3.75% range. Although the market expected further easing, the Fed instead revised up its core PCE inflation projection for 2026. This suggests that the high-interest-rate policy will persist longer, which mechanically weakens silver's appeal as a non-yielding asset.

The US dollar index (DXY) strengthened following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, rising to 100,309. This strengthening dollar makes silver more expensive for holders of other currencies, triggering selling in recent days.

Despite tensions in the Middle East, attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, safe-haven sentiment in silver is overshadowed by concerns about a global economic slowdown. As an industrial commodity, silver is highly sensitive to projections of slowing economic growth.

Silver prices briefly reached $100 earlier this year. Silver is currently in a fairly deep technical and fundamental correction.

Silver price movement is estimated to be in the range of 74.30-81.65. The nearest support is approximately 75.60, with the next support target at approximately 74.30. The nearest resistance is approximately 79.30, with the next resistance target at approximately 81.65. This forecast could be wrong.

The New Zealand Dollar Strengthens as the US Dollar Index Consolidates

The commodity currency pair NZD/USD experienced moderate gains yesterday amid a decline in the DXY. The NZD/USD pair drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a high higher than the previous high. The price formed a high of 0.58925, a low of 0.57849, and a close of 0.58727 at the present time.

Current market sentiment for the NZD/USD pair shows interesting dynamics. The NZD, also known as the Kiwi, has shown moderate strength in the past 24 hours. Market focus is on more stable domestic economic data after a period of volatility.

The NZD often moves in line with global risk appetite; if Asian stock and commodity markets strengthen, the NZD is likely to maintain its momentum.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently consolidating following the release of inflation data or the Fed's previous policy decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The market is now awaiting jobless claims data or Fed officials' comments that may provide clues about the next interest rate direction.

Global geopolitical tensions remain a significant factor that could suddenly strengthen the USD. The DXY is currently at 99.227, down from a previous high above 100. Middle East conflicts have driven up oil prices, which technically puts pressure on riskier currencies like the NZD during risk-off sentiment.

The NZDUSD forecast, based on recent prices and market psychological levels, shows the nearest support level at 0.5810, with the next support target at 0.5780. The nearest resistance level is at 0.5895, with the next resistance target at 0.6910. This forecast could be incorrect.

Gold prices fell amid the Fed's hawkish stance and massive profit-taking by large institutions.

Gold prices have fallen significantly for three consecutive weeks, peaking sharply last weekend, when gold hit a low of $4,477. Gold prices briefly reached a high of $5,597 in January 2026.

The decline in gold prices occurred amid heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, following the US-Israel attack on Iran on February 28th. Gold briefly rose to $5,418, then declined thereafter. Several reasons for the bearish bias in gold prices, including both technical and psychological factors, have driven the decline:

The US dollar strengthened. The war in Iran, which caused a surge in energy prices, was expected to increase inflation, prompting the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance and to maintain interest rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range at its March meeting. This reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate cut, thereby supporting the U.S. dollar. This made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Investors prefer to hold yield-generating assets, such as the U.S. dollar and bonds.

Institutional position liquidation. Many institutions with high leverage have begun to flush or close positions to offset losses in other sectors or to secure profits after a long rally throughout late 2025.

Massive profit-taking. Gold prices have surged more than 60% in the past year. The current correction is considered healthy, as it allows the market to establish a new price floor before returning to the long-term target above $5,000.

The daily RSI is below the oversold level, but the MACD indicates strong bearish momentum, suggesting that the decline may continue before a rebound.

Geopolitical risks, such as tensions between the US and Iran over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which previously triggered a surge in gold prices above $5,000, are now being considered without any major new escalation, prompting profit-taking. However, the market remains wary of sudden news from the Middle East that could trigger a sudden price spike.

Today's gold price forecast: the nearest support is approximately $4450, with the next support target at approximately $4300. The nearest resistance is approximately $4680, with the next resistance target at approximately $4840. This forecast could be incorrect.

XTI/USD oil prices fall sharply as Trump delays attack on Iran

The current WTI oil price is around $88.3 per barrel, with an initial intraday range of $87.80-$88.80. Previously, the price had fallen sharply to the 84.81 area, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with a relatively long shadow at the bottom of the candle.

Oil prices dropped by around 10%, in line with the postponement of the US attack on Iran and the rise of hopes for peace negotiations.

In a tweet on Truth Social, Trump claimed that there had been very good and productive talks, leading to the possibility of a comprehensive resolution to the conflict. Based on this, Trump stated that he was postponing attacks on Iranian power and energy facilities for five days. This delay depends on the outcome of ongoing negotiations.

In a follow-up statement, he stated that there was a major agreement and was optimistic that a peace agreement could be reached soon. Previously, Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not opened. Following the tweet, the market reacted immediately, with oil prices dropping sharply, and sentiment shifting toward de-escalation, which means a reduced risk premium.

However, the Middle East conflict is not over. Iran responded to Trump's threats with a very firm tone, vowing to destroy critical infrastructure in the Middle East. Counterattack targets include energy facilities, water installations, and other vital infrastructure. This shows Iran is prepared to escalate the conflict to a regional level. Iran has also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if attacked, which could have significant repercussions for the global economy.

Following Trump's threats, Iran launched missiles toward Israel and targeted US military interests, which meant Iran was not just talking but taking direct military action. Senior Iranian officials warned that if Iran's power facilities were destroyed, the entire region could go dark. This threat of a retaliatory attack on the regional energy grid could trigger a transnational electricity crisis.

Iran denied direct negotiations with the US and viewed Trump's threats as a propaganda ploy and a form of psychological pressure on the energy market.

Iran's response can be summarized as: Iran is very aggressive and ready to escalate, ready to retaliate with a military attack, using the Strait of Hormuz as its primary weapon. This is what caused oil prices to spike sharply. However, when Trump postponed the attack, oil prices fell. However, US oil stocks rose sharply, providing short-term support, while global demand remains strong, providing medium-term bullish support.

The forecast WTI oil price range today is around $85-$95. If the conciliatory sentiment persists, oil prices may fall within the $85-$90 range, with a break above $87 potentially leading to a further $83-$85. If escalation occurs again, the oil price range is estimated at $90-$97. A break of $97 raises the potential for a rapid spike. This forecast could be wrong.

AUD/JPY trending lower amid geopolitical risk aversion in the Middle East

The AUD/JPY had experienced significant bullish movement before the Iran war began. The price reached a record high of 113,958 in mid-March 2026. The rally then stalled, and the price trended lower, reaching a low of 110,227 late last week.

The AUD/JPY price dynamics were influenced by divergence due to contrasting monetary policies between Australia and Japan, coupled with global market risk sentiment due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have persisted for more than three weeks, and with no clear signs of an end to the Iran-US-Israel war.

The AUD/JPY trended lower amidst risk aversion from tensions in the Middle East that could escalate into a regional war.

At the RBA's monetary policy meeting in March 2026, the Australian central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%. The RBA is focused on curbing secondary inflation triggered by the surge in global oil prices. This commitment provides structural resilience for the AUD.

Today, the market will await the release of Australia's annual inflation data for February, with market consensus hovering around 3.8%. If the data is higher than expected, the AUD could potentially strengthen as the market considers the possibility of another interest rate hike in May.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its short-term interest rate at around 0.75% at its meeting last week. The Bank of Japan remains cautious and patient amid global growth uncertainty, although the swap market indicates a chance of one 25 basis point hike in 2026.

Amid the Middle East conflict, the Japanese yen is caught between two functions: on the one hand, its status as a safe-haven currency; on the other, as Japan imports heavy oil, rising energy prices actually weigh on the JPY.

The Australian dollar, as a commodity currency, often finds support when commodity prices rise. Some commodities that influence the AUD include oil, coal, nickel, industrial metals, and gold.

The forecast range for AUD/JPY is: the nearest support is around 110.40, with the next support target around 109.80. The nearest resistance is around 111.45, with the next resistance target around 112.15. This forecast could be wrong.

The Canadian Dollar Pressured by Falling Oil Prices

The USD/CAD commodity currency pair rose for three consecutive days amid expectations of a de-escalation in the Middle East. Oil prices are currently falling due to hopes of a de-escalation in the Iran-US-Israel conflict. As a major oil exporter, the CAD is heavily influenced by fluctuations in oil prices. In fact, in the past two months, the CAD has fallen to its weakest level due to falling oil prices and weak economic data.

Yesterday, the USD/CAD drew a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadows. The price formed a high of 1.38137, a low of 1.37499, and a close of 1.38102.

The current Middle East conflict is not over yet, but there have been several diplomatic signals and a change in Trump's stance as the main actor, which the market has interpreted as a sign of peace. The US sent a 15-point peace plan to Iran through Pakistani mediators. Although not yet approved, the proposal is under review, which is enough to spur market optimism. Trump also postponed major threats to Iran's infrastructure, which helped calm the market by reducing the impact of the war, which directly pressured oil prices.

Canadian economic data was reported to be weak, with exports falling sharply by around -14.6% year-on-year. Canada also suffered significant job losses of around 84,000. Bond yields fell, further reinforcing the sentiment that the Canadian economy is weakening, putting pressure on the CAD and the USD/CAD pair tending to rise.

The Bank of Canada is currently holding interest rates at 2.25%, despite expectations of a hike, but weak economic data is a drag.

In the US, the Fed's policy remains hawkish and neutral. The fed funds rate remains at 3.5%-3.75%, indicating that the Fed remains cautious due to inflation triggered by the surge in energy prices due to the Iran war. Policy divergence still tends to favor a stronger USD over the CAD.

Today, the market will focus on US jobless claims data. If US employment data shows resilience, this will give the Fed room to maintain high interest rates for longer. Fed officials have also recently been cautious about cutting interest rates, which generally supports the USD.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a major driver. If new geopolitical tensions arise, the market typically shifts to safe-haven assets. Conversely, if the situation becomes more conducive, capital flows will flow from the USD to riskier currencies. However, the USDCAD decline tends to be contained, especially if oil prices fall drastically at the same time.

USDCAD price range forecast: nearest support is around 1.3700, with the next support target around 1.3680. Nearest resistance is around 1.3770, with the next resistance target around 1.3820. This forecast could be incorrect.

Bullish momentum is building in the safe-haven USD/CHF pair.

The USD/CHF pair, where both the USD and the CHF act as safe-haven currencies, has gained for three consecutive days, as the USD continues to strengthen. Yesterday, the USD/CHF drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.79591, a low of 0.79089, and a close of 0.79375.

Amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the US dollar's strength has continued over the past three days, with the DXY currently trading at 99.934, up from a low of 99.060. Meanwhile, the CHF has struggled to gain traction as traders remain cautious about potential SNB intervention to curb excessive currency appreciation.

Although the CHF and the USD are considered safe-haven currencies, they have very different characteristics, magnitudes, and drivers of inflow. Inflows to the USD tend to be larger in terms of volume and global liquidity, but the CHF often experiences proportionally sharper and more aggressive percentage appreciation.

During a financial crisis, capital inflows into the USD increase because the world needs cash, and the USD is the most liquid currency. The USD can strengthen sharply during a global liquidity crisis, a Wall Street stock market panic, or when the market anticipates a massive global recession. Investors tend to sell risky assets and park their funds in US Treasuries; to buy these US bonds, they need USD.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is a pure safe-haven currency driven by the stability of Switzerland's fundamentals. Its volume is much smaller than that of the US due to the Swiss market's small size. However, because of its small market size, even a modest inflow of funds is enough to cause the CHF's value to surge dramatically as a percentage. The CHF is highly sensitive to local geopolitical tensions, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, and banking crises. With very low debt below 40% of GDP, a consistent current account surplus, very low inflation, and a history of political neutrality spanning hundreds of years, investors buy the CHF to preserve value and protect it from crises.

The Fed's March 2026 meeting decided to maintain interest rates, adopting a wait-and-see stance because US inflation was above its target of 2%. Despite solid US economic growth, the market sees limited room for rate cuts in the remainder of 2026. Remaining high interest rates support the USD.

The SNB's March 2026 monetary policy review saw the SNB maintain interest rates at 0%. They maintained low interest rates to maintain price stability and prevent excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc. Amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the SNB publicly stated its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb excessive appreciation of the CHF, which is sought after as a safe-haven asset.

The wide interest rate differential between the SNB and the Fed theoretically benefits the USD through the carry trade mechanism. However, global geopolitical tensions could at any time trigger a strengthening of the Swiss Franc as a hedge currency.

WTI oil prices surge nearly $100 amid the possibility of a prolonged war

Crude oil prices have fluctuated during the Iran-US-Israel war, reaching $114 after the war began. Prices also briefly dipped to around $84 when Trump expressed hope that negotiations would progress. However, hopes of de-escalation faded when Iran stated it did not want to negotiate with the US, citing the US's frequent use of diplomatic attacks on Iran during negotiations.

Oil prices are again at risk of rising due to expectations that the war will last longer, despite US claims that it will end in a matter of weeks.

Meanwhile, there have been protests in all 50 US states, with the No Kings protest movement representing the largest mass mobilization in US history, demonstrating against Trump's authoritarian policies, military involvement in Iran, and the crackdown on immigration agents.

The main factor driving oil prices currently is the conflict in the Middle East, directly involving Iran since the US-Israel attack on Iran on February 28, 2026.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted supply distribution by approximately 20 million barrels per day. Approximately 40 Middle Eastern energy facilities were damaged in the war, causing significant supply disruptions. Additional risks arise from the Bab el-Mandeb route, which involves Iran's proxy group, the Houthis, and others. The greatest risk is the closure of global oil routes if the war continues.

There are reports that the US has sent more than 3,000 troops to the Middle East to support operations, which could involve ground confrontations. As long as the conflict persists, oil remains at a high premium.

OPEC+ initially planned to begin unwinding voluntary production cuts in April 2026, but they remain flexible depending on market conditions. IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency oil reserves in mid-March to stabilize prices. US oil production has stabilized at 13.6-13.7 million barrels per day, but drilling volume has decreased.

Current market sentiment, given rising global inflation due to high energy prices, predicts a worst-case scenario where oil prices could reach $120-$130.

GBP/USD touched a two-month low around 1.31740.

The GBPUSD price has declined significantly over the past 5 days. The price is currently around 1.31847, near the lower band.

The GBPUSD shows potential for high volatility due to the upcoming release of important data from both countries. Factors affecting the GBP include soaring UK inflation expectations, which are expected to reach 5.4% in the short term. This supports the Bank of England's (BoE) more hawkish stance as the possibility of an interest rate hike remains.

The BoE is currently leaning toward holding interest rates, with most economists seeing them remain at 3.75% for the next few months. There is no strong push for GBP to rise in the near term. Meanwhile, business activity in the UK has slowed, and production costs have risen due to rising energy prices, which have weighed on the GBP.

The UK will release final GDP growth data for the fourth quarter. Consensus estimates stable growth at 0.1% and 1% annual GDP. The fourth-quarter current account data is expected to show a widening deficit; a large deficit is usually a negative sentiment for the GBP.

The USD remains strong amid the Middle East conflict as investors seek it as a safe-haven, as it is currently the most liquid currency. The Fed is expected to adopt a hawkish stance, with interest rates likely to remain high until September 2026. USD yields tend to be more attractive, supporting the US dollar's rise.

The US will release JOLTS job openings data. A figure higher than 6.87 million could strengthen the USD, indicating a tight labor market, supporting a high-interest-rate policy. US consumer confidence is expected to rise to 91.2, which could provide an additional boost to the USD, reflecting optimism about the US economy.

The Middle East conflict is a key global factor. The potential for rising energy prices continues to loom over the market as the Iran-US-Israel war has the potential to escalate. There are reports that the US is sending approximately 3,500 ground troops to the Middle East, who are expected to conduct ground operations. Meanwhile, in the US, there have been massive protests in all 50 states over the Trump administration's policies regarding immigration and the Iran war.

The current price is around 1.3180, with the nearest support forecast at 1.3150. The next support target is around 1.3110. The nearest resistance is around 1.3240, with the next resistance target around 1.3275. This forecast could be wrong.

Silver Prices in a Critical Consolidation Phase After Experiencing Extreme Volatility at the Beginning of the Year

Silver prices attempted to rise yesterday, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle after consolidating during the previous week's price movement. XAGUSD formed a high of around 75,353, a low of 69,010, and a close of 75,149.

Based on the current market situation, XAGUSD is in a critical consolidation phase after experiencing extreme volatility at the beginning of the year. After reaching an all-time high (ATH) around $121 in late January 2026, silver prices have corrected more than 40% and are now attempting to find a new floor in the $70 area.

The Fed's hawkish sentiment surprised the market heading into the second quarter of 2026. The Fed's shift from expectations of a rate cut, originally predicted for May, has now dropped dramatically. This has put pressure on non-yielding assets like silver.

Silver remains structurally strong, as this is the third consecutive year of a supply deficit. Industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI data centers remains a key driver despite price volatility. However, signs of global economic weakness due to the Iran war could dampen industrial demand.

Today, the market will focus on US data releases, including the ADP payrolls and the ISM manufacturing PMI. If these data indicate economic weakness, the US dollar could weaken, providing a boost for silver to rebound.

Silver is also affected by the performance of the USD because it is priced in USD; when the USD rises, silver tends to fall. Currently, the DXY shows a decline from a high of 100.643 to a low of 99.808.

Geopolitical factors in the Middle East remain the main catalyst that can increase safe-haven demand. However, price direction is highly volatile, and capital flows could shift to the USD or other safe-haven assets depending on the escalation

EUR/JPY shows mixed movement with a limited upward bias

The EUR/JPY cross yesterday drew a medium-bodied bullish candle, extending the previous recovery. The price formed a high of 184.241, a low of 183.231, and a close of 183.964.

The EUR/JPY price movement exhibited mixed dynamics, with range-bound movement for several months. This reflects the contrasting dynamics between European and Japanese monetary policies, coupled with pressure from global geopolitical factors.

In the eurozone, the ECB recently revised its inflation outlook upward to 2.6% from 1.9%, due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, which has driven up energy prices. At its most recent meeting in March, the ECB maintained its interest rate at 2.00%. However, the market is now starting to factor in the potential for one or two rate hikes in 2026 to curb inflation. This policy expectation is boosting the euro.

Regarding eurozone economic growth, the eurozone GDP projection was cut to 0.9% for 2026, reflecting concerns about stagflation, or high inflation with low growth.

In Japan, the Tankan survey results released on April 1 showed manufacturing optimism rose to 77, exceeding market expectations. This strengthens the case for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to continue raising interest rates. The BoJ's interest rate is currently at 0.75%, and many analysts predict it will raise by 25 basis points to 1.00% at its April 22 meeting.

The Japanese yen is a safe-haven currency, and although still vulnerable, it receives sporadic support whenever geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, which can trigger capital flows into safe-haven assets.

Market sentiment for the EURJPY is currently mixed to bullish. The bullish side is supported by market expectations that the ECB may have to raise interest rates more quickly due to inflation caused by surging energy prices.

The bearish side for the EURJPY is supported by improving Japanese fundamentals, as evidenced by the Tankan survey, which signals the BoJ's policy normalization this month.

Traders are closely monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East, as surging oil prices could soon put pressure on the euro through inflation, while simultaneously strengthening the yen as a safe-haven currency.

EURJPY price movement forecast: nearest support is around 183.10, with the next support target around 182.80. Nearest resistance is around 184.50, with the next resistance target around 184.80. This forecast could be wrong.

Pair is useless for trend traders, after 3-months, it's still at the 2026 open

USD/JPY Rises Ahead of NFP Data, Wary of Japanese Intervention

The USD/JPY currency pair rose sharply from a low of 158.275 to a high of 159.745. Today, the USD/JPY has the potential for high volatility as it coincides with the release of crucial US economic data.

Today, the US Department of Labor will release Non-Farm Payrolls data. This is often a market-moving news item; if the NFP is higher than expected, it could support a sharp strengthening of the USD.

The Fed is currently holding interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The market is looking for clues as to whether a rate cut will be made at its April or June meeting. Strong employment data released today could delay expectations of a rate cut, which would support a stronger USD.

According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the target probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates at its April 29 meeting is 99.5%.

Japan is currently showing signs of stable inflation above 2%, but the Bank of Japan remains inclined towards an accommodative stance. Although the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has begun a policy of easing, there are signs of another interest rate hike. Japanese inflation is influenced by high oil prices and a weakening yen. Geopolitical tensions, such as those in the Middle East, often lead to the JPY being sought as a safe haven, potentially suppressing the USD/JPY's rise.

Japanese interest rates are currently far below those of the US, and the JPY may occasionally strengthen, but this is not yet a significant trend. The price range of 160 and above is vulnerable to Japanese government intervention.

The Middle East conflict remains vulnerable to escalation; in a global war, investors tend to seek safe-haven assets. The JPY and USD are considered safe-haven currencies. However, Japan's dependence on energy imports makes the JPY more vulnerable when oil prices spike due to the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. This often gives the USD an advantage over the JPY during energy crises.

The US-Israel war with Iran has disrupted global energy supplies. If prices continue to skyrocket, US inflation will remain high. This forces the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance, even if employment data is weak. This supports the USD, preventing it from falling too far.

The current USDJPY price is trading around 169.80. The 160.00 level remains a key psychological focus for traders. The nearest support is estimated at 158.60, with the next support target around 157.90. The nearest resistance is around 160.15, with the next resistance target around 160.80. This forecast could be wrong.

WTI oil prices surge due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict

Oil prices surged on Friday, April 3rd, by around $10 per barrel due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz, which supplies 20% of the global supply, remains disrupted. The risk of the war escalating into a ground invasion further heightens investor concerns, fueling the rise in oil prices.

The conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran remains a key driver. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have fueled concerns about a supply shock, pushing prices above the psychological $100 level. Some analysts even predict further increases if the conflict escalates further.

While no ground invasion has occurred, there have been small operations involving ground troops. There have been clashes between US and Iranian forces. US special forces entered Iranian territory to begin a rescue mission for a downed pilot.

The Pentagon has reportedly prepared ground operation options, including the possibility of seizing strategic locations, but the US president has not yet approved a large-scale deployment of ground troops. US public support is also very low, below 14%, a crucial factor in managing escalation.

On the other hand, Iran still possesses missile and drone capabilities. The Strait of Hormuz is not yet completely secure, despite the US threatening a larger attack if Iran does not withdraw. However, Iran has been preparing for this war for decades, so US threats have not deterred Iran from surrendering.

OPEC+, as a market balancing factor, eight OPEC+ member countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have begun returning supply to the market at 206,000 barrels per day starting in April 2026. This step was taken to stabilize prices, which were considered excessively high and were beginning to threaten global economic growth.

The latest EIA data shows that US crude oil production remains strong at 13.6 million barrels per day for 2026. Despite global disruptions, the availability of US domestic stocks provides a cushion to prevent prices from spiraling out of control.

XTIUSD is technically in an uptrend, but is starting to show signs of overboughtness on the RSI indicator. The forecast price for the XTIUSD pair is the nearest support at around $104, with the next support target around $102. The nearest resistance is around $115, with the next resistance target around $118. This forecast could be wrong.