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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,021
  • Aug 27, 2007 3:00pm Aug 27, 2007 3:00pm
Quoting bobblong
USD/CAD ? Looks like it's going to continue ranging like a bitch as it has been doing. The fact that it may get to 1.0560 does not indicate direction of any kind to me. I'm not even trading the pair right now. That's 40 pips from open... hmm? Most pairs just took a breather to retrace (E/U,U/J, G/Y, A/U...etc) and now on the same course they were during last week (making bob a very happy puppy). If you want to trade a 40 pip retracement with a similar stoploss that is entirely your concern..

However pay attention to what mrdaniel said, it's a good idea to look out for bearish price action (You will PROBABLY see a pinbar much like the one you are playing now) around that level if it even gets there, then look for a break & close below the 1.0480 support.
THEN we have direction.
Thanx ! ............ for your imput
It is appreciated --------

Here is another point of View

------------------------------------------
Divergence now appears to be occurring on this longer term 4 hr bar chart
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Be Aware ! ...........
( See chart below ) Double click on image to enlarge it .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-8-26-2007-#3.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #2,022
  • Edited 4:14pm Aug 27, 2007 3:51pm | Edited 4:14pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Hi marketwavez,
your 3rd trade was an ABC off the low with A=C => 1.0800 but how did you get the second target? Both 138.2% and 161.8% were a lot higher and I saw on your chart you initially had an a lot higher secondary target in the chart as well.

Just curious.

Take care, SeekingLight
Hi there ,
Seeking Light
There is a wise old saying when trading

" It is far more difficult to Exit a trade than Enter a trade "
Have you never heard this saying ?

-----------------------------------------------------

There are so many ways to to think to exit a trade
and don't forget that emotion at times gets evolved ,,,,

The bottom line is

Trading is not an exact science ........
 It all comes down to your Averages and also
Buying into a range and Selling into a range !

 -No one can pick the exact bottom or top all of the time .)
----------------------------------------------------- ----------
Here is all the Resistance Lines that Price will have to
overcome in the current trade setup .

-All these Parallel lines are potential targets
( See chart below )
Double click on chart to enlarge
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-8-26-2007-#4.gif Size: 57 KB
  • #2,023
  • Aug 28, 2007 8:39am Aug 28, 2007 8:39am
Is it time to hit 1.0800?
  • #2,024
  • Edited 12:33pm Aug 28, 2007 11:53am | Edited 12:33pm
Wow ! .............Success !
ALL TARGETS HAVE BEEN REACHED TODAY .....

---------------------------------------------------
Usd/Cad

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

- Trade set-up from Monday , this week

The Usd/Cad -(Cad) price entry of 0510 was triggered
--------------------------------------------------------------------

............Gain of 110 points today...............http://www.moneytec.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Original Post ............... Post #2010
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=29394&page=134 //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Long Usd/Cad.....0510 ....................... 1st Stop...... 0470

1st Target.......0580.........................2nd Target .......... 0620

-----------------------------------------------------------------

NO HINDSITE , NO OSCILLATORS , NO NEWS , & NO MEETINGS

-----------------------------------------------------------------
It's all in the chart's ...............
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-8-26-2007-#2.gif Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-8-28-2007-#1.gif Size: 85 KB
  • #2,025
  • Aug 28, 2007 12:21pm Aug 28, 2007 12:21pm
Good trade marketwavez, nice call.
  • #2,026
  • Aug 28, 2007 1:28pm Aug 28, 2007 1:28pm
Great call MW!!
Always enjoy seeing your counts and view on the market.
  • #2,027
  • Aug 28, 2007 1:46pm Aug 28, 2007 1:46pm
marketwavez,

Do you follow the EW analysis over at dailyfx? They've been bearish on USDCAD for quite some time now. They missed this recent bounce, but to their credit, they were correctly bearish all the way down to the lows in June and bullish prior to the bounce to 800 in July.
  • #2,028
  • Edited Aug 29, 2007 7:48am Aug 28, 2007 2:15pm | Edited Aug 29, 2007 7:48am
Hi Trader KGB

/////////////////////////////////////
No , I don't follow Daily Fx /or any other Forum of that nature.....
-They are too busy paying attention to News ......
----------------------------------------------------------
Watching the News causes to much Emotion when trading .....
and besides ,
Nelson Elliott the man who created this method of trading
said nothing of Watching News in his writings .
----------------------------------------------------------
Understanding the waves starts with turning off the News !


Yes -
I am a humble student of the Elliott Waves Formations Since 2003 .
i was taught to draw Elliott Waves with with a Pencil and Paper
in the Commodity Markets - Forex is still new to me ...........
  • #2,029
  • Aug 28, 2007 2:19pm Aug 28, 2007 2:19pm
Definitely forget the news


Marketwavez, I'd still be interested to see your current bigger count now and targets...I got a projection near 1.0990 again ;d

But we'd have to get pretty USD bullish for that..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,030
  • Aug 28, 2007 2:19pm Aug 28, 2007 2:19pm
Quoting marketwavez
-They are too busy paying attention to News ......
Actually, their EW guy never mentions news event, just strict EW theory. Click that link in my above post, you'll see what I mean.
  • #2,031
  • Edited 2:38pm Aug 28, 2007 2:26pm | Edited 2:38pm
ok
I just checked out there

I disagree with his Gbp/Jpy count
and his Eur/Usd Count
---------------------------------------
Sorry but I can't post my point of view of those charts in here ,

I can only post Usd/Cad and Usd /Chf pair in here
basically only post the Us Dollar and the Candian Dollar here

- Its what this thread is dedicated to if you know what I mean .
  • #2,032
  • Aug 28, 2007 3:00pm Aug 28, 2007 3:00pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Definitely forget the news


Marketwavez, I'd still be interested to see your current bigger count now and targets...I got a projection near 1.0990 again ;d

But we'd have to get pretty USD bullish for that..
Here they are - ( Very Long Term )
----------------------------------------
Multi-Year Lows ...........
------------------------------------------
 See charts below

- Double click on chart to enlarge.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-6-29-2007-#3.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-7-08-2007-#2.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #2,033
  • Aug 28, 2007 3:47pm Aug 28, 2007 3:47pm
Us Dollar

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
stabilize , please !......

Will you Please STABILIZE at least for the stock markets sake ?
----------------------------------------------------------
Only a Probability !...................... Not Cast in Stone.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Swiss Franc-08-28-07-01.gif Size: 78 KB
  • #2,034
  • Aug 28, 2007 3:53pm Aug 28, 2007 3:53pm
Well it seems I was wrong, at least for now....
  • #2,035
  • Aug 28, 2007 5:11pm Aug 28, 2007 5:11pm
Anyone expert on this pair could predict whether the bull will continue or not ? If yes, till what or when ?

Thanks.
  • #2,036
  • Aug 28, 2007 9:23pm Aug 28, 2007 9:23pm
Elliott Waves is contraian method of trading
that is rooted in Fibonacci Retracements ......

In other words :
Elliott Waves is not a trend following method !....
but more importantly , Elliott Waves is just like any other form of
Technical Analysis out there ....... It is very Subjective ....
--------------------------------------------------------------------
It is not cast in Stone .... It is not 100% Reliable

That's why when a wave- count that you think is happening
moves against you .... YOU should not be discourged ...

Because in the end - It's all about your Averages - This is what's Important !

Your Averages ! coupled with Sound Money Management .

-----------------------------------------------------------

Always Remeber ,

Professionals - are concerned wit th Risk to Reward

Amateurs - are concerned with being right all the time !

Which one are you ?................
  • #2,037
  • Aug 28, 2007 11:14pm Aug 28, 2007 11:14pm
well now lets see...USD/CAD it looks like it will fall, but not until after some upward movement....possibly up until the 1.07-1.0750 level then drop after that. I expect it all to happen about 1-2 hours before the US opening and if it doesn't then I'll reevaluate it and see where it takes us from there. From what I see USD/CAD is either going 1.09 or 1.03 and it's stuck in the middle now... so if it doesn't happen like I mentioned above there is a higher probability of it going to 1.09 otherwise it'll go to 1.03 again and from there on to 1.0

and I'm one of the "professionals" ^^
  • #2,038
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:35am Aug 29, 2007 6:35am
what do u think guys?

it's time to go back to 1.0340?

Any thoughts?
  • #2,039
  • Aug 29, 2007 7:12am Aug 29, 2007 7:12am
that's what i thought a few days ago until i got caught out by the upward retracement. luckily i had no position open
  • #2,040
  • Aug 29, 2007 7:57am Aug 29, 2007 7:57am
Quoting MoForce
well now lets see...USD/CAD it looks like it will fall, but not until after some upward movement....possibly up until the 1.07-1.0750 level then drop after that. I expect it all to happen about 1-2 hours before the US opening and if it doesn't then I'll reevaluate it and see where it takes us from there. From what I see USD/CAD is either going 1.09 or 1.03 and it's stuck in the middle now... so if it doesn't happen like I mentioned above there is a higher probability of it going to 1.09 otherwise it'll go to 1.03 again and from there on to 1.0

and I'm one of the "professionals" ^^
now it fell back to 1.06. What's next? do you think it may go up to 1.09? It seems to me the USD/CAD is quite dependent on the US stock market.
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