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The Swamp

  • #127,081
  • Mar 24, 2026 9:10am Mar 24, 2026 9:10am
Its never been about values. Its about marketing. Coke verses Pepsi. If you put some hot chicks on the couch, where you get some squirrel shots now and again. You become the family party. If you want to sell Diet Pepsi, put Cindy Crawford in a bikini. If you want to sell values. Put some hot chicks on a couch with the cameras at the right height. Just enough for a tease. You will get a following. Put the word "news" in your name. Then higher a bunch of biased commentators to act like they are reporting news. In a few years you have a cult. It isn't rocket science. Family values were born out some low cut skirts. With the cameras at the right height.
That's why you don't see any older Barbera Walters types on the family value channel. They keep them hot and young. Don't renew the old ones contract. Its just that simple. The competition keeps the brainy less bikini material. If they would go more hot chick in a skirt. They could pick up more political power. Something the horney old man would watch. Marketing 101. Sell the hot girl wants you allusion.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,082
  • Mar 24, 2026 4:17pm Mar 24, 2026 4:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
Its never been about values. Its about marketing. Coke verses Pepsi. If you put some hot chicks on the couch, where you get some squirrel shots now and again. You become the family party. If you want to sell Diet Pepsi, put Cindy Crawford in a bikini. If you want to sell values. Put some hot chicks on a couch with the cameras at the right height. Just enough for a tease. You will get a following. Put the word "news" in your name. Then higher a bunch of biased commentators to act like they are reporting news. In a few years you have a cult. It isn't...
He said he knew more than the generals. What a fucking idiot. He listened to 2 people not even in the cabinet. Now on the edge of WW3. A depressed world economy. A black eye for the USA worldwide. But hey those short skirts are family values. Blood, and treasure will be spent. When your idles are Putin types that claim they can do something in 3 days. After the 4 year mark should you re-evaluate? Young men, and countless innocent civilians will die. Thanks to the cult. This is the same plan as Putin's. This moron is responsible for about 40% of the U.S. debt already. More than anyone in U.S. history. Math don't lie. That 40% is still climbing. What could possibly go wrong?
https://www.instagram.com/p/DWKGkD6DkVt/
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,083
  • Mar 24, 2026 11:13pm Mar 24, 2026 11:13pm
Last week I thought the eu would remain below 1488. To me is still the heavy S.. lighter 1534.. All oil dependent.. None are tweet proof. At least until the market has had enough. PA is on those bull sides
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,084
  • Mar 25, 2026 4:09am Mar 25, 2026 4:09am
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Its all just one persons opinion
  • #127,085
  • Mar 25, 2026 9:05am Mar 25, 2026 9:05am
Quoting axecap
{image}
Yep... Barren is making money with inside info.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,086
  • Mar 25, 2026 1:34pm Mar 25, 2026 1:34pm
Been in FF since 2010 and have loved reading Cloggie in the past and saw how this thread has consistently been one of the better ones. After trading for almost 20 years both institutionally, sovereignly and personally this is my personal views and i hope it adds value to traders on this thread.

1. People constantly underestimate Trump. Period.

I want to remind everyone that he bankrupted many companies yes. But he is a billionaaire despite it all and is a master of bankruptcy. You don't become a billionaaire by being a fool. He has learn to restructure debt on his terms, shed liabilities and force creditors into accepting less than what they're owed, emerging strong while others absorbed the losses. That is leverage mastery, the ability to make your own vulnerability into someone else's problem. Perceived weakness and actual weakness are completely different things.

What might look like incoherence might honestly be a greater plan that is thought on a greater scale that you and i can fathom. Which brings me to point 2.

2. USA is oil and energy sufficient. Period.

Together with Mexico and Venezeula, they are energy secured. They made sure Venezuela occured first before they attempted this on Iran. They can redirect domestic production to offset domestic energy price spikes and control the relief valve for their own population's pain. Their energy independece isn't just about economic policy, it is geopolitical optionality.

Iran thinks that it has the strongest remaining piece but it is actually far more painful for everyone else than for the US itself. Hormuz closure hurts adversaries and allies alike and Allies eventually forced to back US position while China is exposed on energy supply. Which leads us to point 3.

3. US can now selectively relieve energy pain country by country and helping those they deem worthy to be helped. China specifically cannot replicate this. Their energy vulnerability is structural and unresolvable in the short term. This will essentially

  1. Permanently cripple China's most reliable alternative energy supplier
  2. Demonstrate to the Gulf states that US protection is indispensable
  3. Force Asian allies into deeper dependency on US energy supply
  4. Restructure Middle East power toward Saudi-Israeli axis
  5. Do all of it from a position of complete domestic energy immunity

Saudi and UAE absorb Iranian retaliation directly. Which serves multiple purposes simultaneously:

  1. Keeps US casualties lower domestically — politically crucial for Trump
  2. Deepens GCC dependency on US military protection permanently
  3. Gives Saudi and UAE skin in the game justifying post-war regional architecture
  4. If Iranian missiles hit Riyadh or Abu Dhabi — international sympathy shifts completely toward the coalition

The move thus far

  1. Attempted negotiation
  2. Gave Iran a chance
  3. Iran publicly rejected ceasefire
  4. Global economic harm documented
  5. Acting on behalf of international community not unilaterally

By the end of this the US will have:

  1. Destroyed Iran's nuclear program
  2. Severed China's energy supply line
  3. Taken physical control of the world's most strategic energy chokepoint
  4. Restructured Middle East power permanently
  5. Done it while being able to claim they tried diplomacy
  6. Left the GCC holding post-war security responsibilities
  7. Emerged as the indispensable energy supplier to a grateful Asia
  8. US energy dependency becomes structural and Asian economies are structurally dependent on US energy supply
  9. US military umbrella becomes non-negotiable. Middle East Energy is under US - GCC allied control
  10. Chinese alternative energy architecture looks permanently unreliable
  11. Any remaining credibility of the alternative multipolar order narrative or to bypass and debase off the USD is shut


Therefore, dont resolve it quickly and let it bleed deliberately. A prolong controlled conflict does something that is even more beneficial to US.

Send in boots on the grounds, take over Kharg. Bog it down and do a reverse Afghanistan playbook. The Soviets got bogged down in Afghanistan while the US armed the Mujahideen and bled them slowly. Now the US controls the bog and everyone else bleeds. You can also win blitz chess not by moving fast and precise, but by making the opponent's clock run out faster than yours. The US just extended its own clock indefinitely through energy independence while every other player at the table is watching their time run out simultaneously.

DXY in this case will go up and signifcantly. It just hasnt been priced in yet. The market is currently offering you a price that suggests most people aren't there yet. Of course i could be wrong and a deal is made and the architecture behind this unravels but if they send boots down on the ground then this architecture holds.

Regards

  • #127,087
  • Mar 25, 2026 3:20pm Mar 25, 2026 3:20pm
Quoting tnomadtrader
Been in FF since 2010 and have loved reading Cloggie in the past and saw how this thread has consistently been one of the better ones. After trading for almost 20 years both institutionally, sovereignly and personally this is my personal views and i hope it adds value to traders on this thread. 1. People constantly underestimate Trump. Period. I want to remind everyone that he bankrupted many companies yes. But he is a billionaaire despite it all and is a master of bankruptcy. You don't become a billionaaire by being a fool. He has learn to restructure...
No one knows what will happen. Not you, not the media, not trump, not Iran. Be humble.
  • #127,088
  • Mar 25, 2026 4:14pm Mar 25, 2026 4:14pm
Quoting tnomadtrader
Been in FF since 2010 and have loved reading Cloggie in the past and saw how this thread has consistently been one of the better ones. After trading for almost 20 years both institutionally, sovereignly and personally this is my personal views and i hope it adds value to traders on this thread. 1. People constantly underestimate Trump. Period. I want to remind everyone that he bankrupted many companies yes. But he is a billionaaire despite it all and is a master of bankruptcy. You don't become a billionaaire by being a fool. He has learn to restructure...
Brilliant and interesting piece.
  • #127,089
  • Mar 25, 2026 10:51pm Mar 25, 2026 10:51pm
Quoting tnomadtrader
Been in FF since 2010 and have loved reading Cloggie in the past and saw how this thread has consistently been one of the better ones. After trading for almost 20 years both institutionally, sovereignly and personally this is my personal views and i hope it adds value to traders on this thread. 1. People constantly underestimate Trump. Period. I want to remind everyone that he bankrupted many companies yes. But he is a billionaaire despite it all and is a master of bankruptcy. You don't become a billionaaire by being a fool. He has learn to restructure...
The con artist is a fool.. I only read a few lines. Had he just put daddy's money in the S & P he would be a real billionaire not a fake one (John Barren fake Trump). The reason he didn't release his income tax. He was still milking the negative business losses. That Venezuelan oil you talk about is useless on its own. It has to be cut with a thinner product to be able to pump. Its closer to an asphalt and thick tar. But out of luck Iran has the perfect oil to cut it. Surprise we attack Iran. So he is just conning more of you to line his pockets. At the expence of the USA and dead boys. The oil profits from Venezuela are going to his offshore personal Kuwait account. Not the treasury. He rapes little girls according to the Epstein files and still has fans. I always knew who he was when he was on the news. In the 90's after screwing the small businessmen. I just didn't realize so many good people could be conned. I always wondered how Hitler did it. I have have come to the conclusion it can, and does. Happen over and over.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,090
  • Mar 26, 2026 6:20am Mar 26, 2026 6:20am
Quoting gatorinla
For it to fall 1534 can support. 1488 potential support. But can have a major drop, and trend if/when sustained below 1488.
its 3 days later now. I cant say if these will break. It looks like they will be tested. 1533.9, and maybe 1488. Slipping below if sustained can be the big down. It may need oil rising to drop. I have the usd increasing strength some. Its just telling me to see what happens at these supports.
there is a tl testing now.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,091
  • Mar 26, 2026 6:42am Mar 26, 2026 6:42am
wti the 12h supported. the smaller times 1-6h still contain it under R. PA is on the bear side of the 6h. That R would end with a 6h above 103. Brent on the other hand is supported by the 4h. Getting a foothold with closes above 116 is a likely break out forming.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,092
  • Mar 26, 2026 8:11am Mar 26, 2026 8:11am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its 3 days later now. I cant say if these will break. It looks like they will be tested. 1533.9, and maybe 1488. Slipping below if sustained can be the big down. It may need oil rising to drop. I have the usd increasing strength some. Its just telling me to see what happens at these supports. there is a tl testing now. {image} {image}
bears didn't hold that last candle below 1533.9.. it may allow 156x or even 1585. Pa above 1488 and 1534 is still bullish to me. but it may be weak.
Oil is below those b/o levels still.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,093
  • Mar 26, 2026 8:42am Mar 26, 2026 8:42am
within 1.3 hs from now it may have its strongest attraction to 1585. It looks weak. There is mild R at 1558. Not making it back to 1585 may be bearish some. But its still above s at 1534 and 1488.. It has to sustain below 1488 to fall.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,094
  • Mar 26, 2026 9:48am Mar 26, 2026 9:48am
The dementia must be getting so bad. He was unable to take questions during a cabinet meeting. The normal North Korean style hostage videos. Must be over for grandpa. The standard Kim Jong ass kissing meetings hopefully are gone. He likely don't have a lot of time left in the living world.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,095
  • Mar 26, 2026 12:54pm Mar 26, 2026 12:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
The dementia must be getting so bad. He was unable to take questions during a cabinet meeting. The normal North Korean style hostage videos. Must be over for grandpa. The standard Kim Jong ass kissing meetings hopefully are gone. He likely don't have a lot of time left in the living world.
  • #127,096
  • Mar 26, 2026 4:40pm Mar 26, 2026 4:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
The dementia must be getting so bad. He was unable to take questions during a cabinet meeting. The normal North Korean style hostage videos. Must be over for grandpa. The standard Kim Jong ass kissing meetings hopefully are gone. He likely don't have a lot of time left in the living world.
If you want a unbiased view. See if the recent Sharpie talk is available. I will not post it. Ones truth has to be found by the individual. That takes some effort. You can bury your head in the sand. You can be a whisperer, where you explain away what's easily seen. Making excuses is cult like. Ask yourself if it was the other guy, what would you say? Do you honestly want the Sharpie guy with his finger on the button? That says more about the individual than than grandpa. When someone does the work to find the truth, they are more inclined to see it. Much more than me saying it. The individual has to feel they discovered it. Then you wont be able to shut them up. The truth will set you free. Its ok to drink the beer you actually like.

The Sharpie shows grandpa at his current mental state.

As a U.S. citizen. That Japan meeting may be forcing Japan to buy oil without the USD. This will affect America. Japan holds most of the USA debt. The cult like tendencies of just being a follower. May affect your standard of living for decades to come. You cant blame anyone but yourself.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,097
  • Mar 26, 2026 4:44pm Mar 26, 2026 4:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
within 1.3 hs from now it may have its strongest attraction to 1585. It looks weak. There is mild R at 1558. Not making it back to 1585 may be bearish some. But its still above s at 1534 and 1488.. It has to sustain below 1488 to fall. {image}
The day did close below 1534. 1488 area odds improved some.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,098
  • Mar 26, 2026 5:56pm Mar 26, 2026 5:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
within 1.3 hs from now it may have its strongest attraction to 1585. It looks weak. There is mild R at 1558. Not making it back to 1585 may be bearish some. But its still above s at 1534 and 1488.. It has to sustain below 1488 to fall. {image}
That mild R at 1558 still lingers. I don't like pa above 1488 leaving it on the bullish side. A move above 1534 may be a liquid sweep.
If the 11pm est close is below 1558. That usually aligns with the following 12h to be below 1558. I cant say it cant sweep above 1558. Being above 1488 has me somewhat respectful. The pa is showing me it wants to fall. Often after a sweep, followed by sub 1534. The better chance for a fall is tomorrow closing below 1488. But if unable to do that. It can run North again.
The year 1734 is above pa. To me that's a bearish sign still. Further is large closes below 1488. I think its waiting on oil. I had the GBP as stronger bearish over the Euro. Its year was tested at 1344 and has held
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,099
  • Mar 26, 2026 6:11pm Mar 26, 2026 6:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} That mild R at 1558 still lingers. I don't like pa above 1488 leaving it on the bullish side. A move above 1534 may be a liquid sweep. If the 11pm est close is below 1558. That usually aligns with the following 12h to be below 1558. I cant say it cant sweep above 1558. Being above 1488 has me somewhat respectful. The pa is showing me it wants to fall. Often after a sweep, followed by sub 1534. The better chance for a fall is tomorrow closing below 1488. But if unable to do that. It can run North again. The year 1734 is above pa. To me that's...
These are not tweet resistant. A bomb in Iran makes oil rise. A tweet saying all is ok, you can go back to sleep can cause a rise. But keep in mind the dislusional stuff will get old. If oil is unable to recover, the usd should stiffen.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,100
  • Mar 26, 2026 7:30pm Mar 26, 2026 7:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} These are not tweet resistant. A bomb in Iran makes oil rise. A tweet saying all is ok, you can go back to sleep can cause a rise. But keep in mind the dislusional stuff will get old. If oil is unable to recover, the usd should stiffen.
his tweet is possibly losing effect
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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