The Swamp

If Iran wanted to help Russia with oil prices. After oil markets open on a Monday is likely a good time. Maybe a bump before the weekend with the Monday follow up.
Don't think they don't look at this strategically. The most bang for the buck.

Do you think BoJ will intervene soon? they said USDJPY 160 right

The will pay more for fuel/energy/oil on one hand, on the other hand. A stronger USD may be better for them in exporting to the usa. I don't know what's best for them.
Our moron president insulted them. So we will see.

It seems they have picked up the obvious. I guess both can play that game. It will make the green in the desert brown. Millions will be at risk without the water. Heavily populated Cities will be the main risk. Clean drinking water, sanitation and darkness is a disaster for modern people.

The orange skid mark was easily fooled to go to war. Now many will die. He don't want to look like a fool. So it will be proven for the world to see. Much blood and treasure will be spent. This is what happens when children play with matches.

Potential bear/bull here at 1488..

I told ya..
This is central bank or institutional levels.

For it to fall 1534 can support. 1488 potential support. But can have a major drop, and trend if/when sustained below 1488.

The same with gu 3350, then 3296. Major hot stove area. This rejection can be a sweep.. Be careful if it lost on all forex.

UJ 159.13/14 the same.
Its all about oil... brent fell from 113 to 95. This has to be cb intervention.

Usd/CHF.. .7881, can support.

AUD .7062.. NZ .5850.. these far have held as R. Possible shorts in those areas..

I collected shorts on the bounce. I think it was a sweep off the 1488 level. I doubt oil can remain as low it is. I think the usa has the domestic oil advantage. That over time would help the usd. The safe "haven normal" seems to lost its shine on the usd. The orange stain has taken away what took 250 years to make. Once credibility is lost. It takes time to earn it back. This to me would be an easy usd rally if not for the moron.

WTI back under 89 again. it hit 83.88 earlier.

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates...ait-of-hormuz/
Postponed

Its dropped to 4100 since. That's about 10-12%

The market falls and the conman cons again. the little boy crying wolf has a shelflife.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/23/u...oops-iran.html
The world is obviously looking for any good news to take the pressure off and stop this fear and any respite is magnified vis-à-vis a risk on mode across asset classes.
Every seemingly positive news looks to push our anchor points towards an inflection point breakout like EUR (1.16373), GBP (1.34342), Copper (12,300).
However, we still believe that risk is being extremely poorly priced and reiterate why we are still heavily bearish and risk off.
(A). You killed the Ayatollah.
Let me reiterate. He is a sayyid. A bloodline of Iman Hussien, a companion of Muhammed (PBUH). This is equivalent to killing the Pope for the Catholics, the Archbishop of the Anglicans, the Chief Rabbinate of Judaism. There is no tweet that can stop fanatics from a holy war and it does not go away with “A deal is made”.

(B) “Better to live under Hamas and a theocracy than to live under the Israelis like animals.”
What you did in Gaza brought you no respite. No softening from the Iranian public having seen how you have caged the Palestinians and bombed them to oblivion and even then, they are Sunni Muslims, Arabs to say the least but was offered no help from their Muslim brethren’s.
At least under the IRGC, the Basij and the Mullahs, they have some form of freedom and live as opposed to the Palestinians.
This war is not just about coming to an agreement for Iran. This war is an agreement of resolution. Not just ceasefire with dignity and freedom.

(C). Concessions
Frankly, you have bombed the shit out of Iran. Their Industrial, port and cities. They are not letting you go without repatriations at the very least which will amount into the hundreds of billions of dollars. Last we checked they were asking for approximately USD 500 billion in settlement. There is no settlement without repatriation. Also, more importantly, they are looking for sanctions to be released so that they can sell their products on the international market. In a détente, no one in their right minds will allow Iran to acquire such funds for future potential aggression.

(D). Flow rate
Flow rate is EVERYTHING when it comes to oil pumps and distribution.

While the IEA does a shock and awe tactic of headline numbers releasing 400 million bbls, the average flow rate of these bbls are 3.3 million bbls a day over 120 days. The world is short of 11 mio bbls per day still. Already the short supply is showing up in the lower and developing economy markets in Asia. Moreover, it takes time for these supplies to be sent over to the respective countries that are in need. I sincerely question those economist credentials who says that a rise in crack spreads does not hit core inflation as it trickles down to logistics and distribution.

We estimate that every 10 dollar of crack spread adds to around 0.5 - 1% of inflationary pressure on core.

Our tipping point before demand destruction would be around 180 Crude + Crack spread or around 60 dollars higher, meaning anywhere between 3 - 6% higher on core inflation.

(E). Political pressure & repercussions
It isn’t just what DT wants or what Iran wants. The GCC will not allow this war to end for fear of serious repercussions by Iran. The Israelis will not allow this war to end for fear of serious repercussions both domestically and regionally. The only way for this to be complete is to totally and annihilate the IRGC and do a regime change with a government that they have vetted, approved and installed. Now that the IRGC is fully aware of the impact and leverage it has over the SOH, they can easily force concessions across the entire GCC, effectively holding them hostage once again. Even if Saudi reinforce their pipeline and come out of Yanbu, until and unless the Houthis are totally taken out and they have security either over SOH or BEM, they will not allow a breather on Iran.
The Outcome:
1. We believe that this is just a start of a long and protracted war that will further escalate, resulting in a potential recession and global financial meltdown that will be extremely painful for the world, thereby forcing the Rest of the world to actually participate in an assault on Iran even though it is illegitimate for the sake of survival. Iran had no choice but to use the SOH as a leverage but that is also their downfall. Inflation to remain high and possibly pass the threshold of 5% going into Q2 / Q3 of 2026.

2. The markets may initially be bullish due to all potential rate hikes across all energy importing nations, resulting in yield differentials but raising rates in a slowing economy is not growth / demand but rather, demand destruction / stagflation / recessionary. We believe that any rallies should be sold into unless there is a clear and meaningful conclusion to this war.

3. Going back to the 70s, 80s through to 00s any significant raise of energy spending >7% of GDP has resulted in severe recession and drawdown in equities and a flight to quality with the DXY being the major benefactor. VIX has not reach the 35 – 40 fear level yet which seems surprising given the volatility and Credit IG / HY spreads remain within 150 bps which is historically low compared to the blow out of a deep recession at 500 bps <> 2000 bps (at it’s peak) signalling a run on liquidity.

4. Coal (Short term) and Renewables (long term) will be the main winner with many people realizing that they need to diverse hard and fast away from liquid hydrocarbons concentrated only in a few countries.

However, the market is the market, and it is still currently pointing to a risk on environment and people are eager for a resolution to this conflict.

Often, we have seen such hope sustain the market but with each let down, the market gets less confident before we finally flip into fear, despair and disillusionment.

While we agree with all these technical analyses of prices of levels, sometimes in such situations, one just needs to see the facts of the case and revert to fundamentals to cut out the noise and remain convicted to one’s view.

This is one of the classic scenarios whereby going back to status quo is no longer possible and situations like these do not get resolve with a tweet or unilaterally.

10% is equal to about .2 in inflation.
Even if nothing changes 4.3 is higher than the 2% target. It makes it hard to cut rates.. At the same time job losses are climbing. A perfect stagflation storm looks to be coming. If you never lived through it before. Your world is about to change.
The numbers were bad before Iran was in the stats. The next report will be for February.. Iran was Feb 28.. People will have a false sense of reality. Feb will only have 1 days worth in it..
In 6-8 wks things may look bad.. Large investors know this. Don't get caught in the hype. The manipulation is for friends and family. The ship full of marines are about 4 days out.
I assume that's why he postponed his dumb shit 5 days yesterday.

I guess wanting the people to rise up and overthrow the government. Don't make a lot of sense if your going to put those people in the dark. This is what happens when you put an idiot in charge, with a bunch of other idiot suck asses. Get your checkbook out. He will cost you for decades.