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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #16,721
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:31am Aug 28, 2007 7:31am
Quoting Lincoln_10
exactly... but my bias is that the pair will have strength to break these supports... DOW should fall significantly in my opinion.
Yep. I'm short myself right now. If ever this goes through, it'll be the first time in live trading I'll be seeing how strong support gets blasted through.
  • #16,722
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:31am Aug 28, 2007 7:31am
Quoting karmostaji
Look at the hourly chart, GJ tried 10 (yes, TEN!) times to break the support, and it failed.
exactly...

again my bias is that IF the pair tested this support this many times it will be broken.. resistances and supports are to be broken... Only we need a persistent pair to do this in some hard levels... Anyway.. .News will give us better direction
i am SHORT but not rulling out a Long position if these levels hold anyway.
give me my pips back...
  • #16,723
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:32am Aug 28, 2007 7:32am
Quoting my2buoys
Aus,

If I understand what you were saying earlier in Asia, you were calling (eventually) for a retrace to the daily. 5SMA before we see a full bear drop. Not sure if I am assessing your post correctly here but it does seem like the Daily 5SMA is possible at this point. Even though the smaller TF's were bearish earlier in Asia, the Daily Momentum (Wow, look at it!) seemed to be pulling this sucker up. The Daily 5SMA is the only current 5SMA hovering above current price. As you pointed out, we already achieved the Weekly 5SMA last week. Where price goes from there I'm not sure. I guess it depends on what happens on the 4H Chart. But I think that your assessment way back in Asia could be coming to pass.

M2B
As you can see the daily Momentum is very bullush.. Thats why the price is very comfortable around 5SMA daily 5 sma is like a maganet. If there's even a little bit of momentum towards 5 SMA it loves to grab the price to that area. Just today the price tested daily 5 SMA twice, including the recent one. Usually thats the maximum 5 SMA could grab the price.. After this the price will follow the 4hr trend.

Last week a very simmillar scenario. This pair never recoverd from the 219 dip. It just completed the weekly 5 SMA retracement to start it's journey further down(monthly low).

Simple theory behind it...
  • #16,724
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:33am Aug 28, 2007 7:33am
What is going on in here....baby

is it now a free for all? i tot this was an Aus tread?...
I'm getting confused.... baby...too many trades...
which one...baby...which one?????
  • #16,725
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:35am Aug 28, 2007 7:35am
Quoting el grande
Actually I was hoping there was somebody else here who was doing EW Wave counts on GBPJPY too. And I was hoping I would be able to get some confirmation for my wave count or trend direction.

But it is good to know that you are Bearish too. Our friend Zoran with his gartley Pattern Analysis is Bearish also.

EG
It wasn't me who found the Gartley but rather Hakuna Matata. Maybe he can post a chart?

I'm short from way up and I'm just looking at points to take profit and re-enter until my target is reached (or I'm stopped) - so not a lot of analysis to do at the moment. I posted a chart yesterday and already referred to it today so take a look, it's the last time I'll post it. As it stands, we have bounced off the line marked 231.54. We could bounce up as high as 235.00 and then back down to 230.00. These are just probabilities.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1188243269

I've seen Daytek post EW counts on GBPJPY. May be worth checking his posts.
  • #16,726
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:38am Aug 28, 2007 7:38am
Quoting my2buoys
Aus,

If I understand what you were saying earlier in Asia, you were calling (eventually) for a retrace to the Daily 5SMA before we see a full bear drop. Not sure if I am assessing your post correctly here but it does seem like the Daily 5SMA is possible at this point. Even though the smaller TF's were bearish earlier in Asia, the Daily Momentum (Wow, look at it!) seemed to be pulling this sucker up. The Daily 5SMA is the only current 5SMA hovering above current price. As you pointed out, we already achieved the Weekly 5SMA last week. Where price goes from there I'm not sure. I guess it depends on what happens on the 4H Chart. But I think that your assessment way back in Asia could be coming to pass.

M2B
After todays test of daily.. it's all free fall down to monthly lows...all the retracemnets are complted except for monthly .. which will be due end of next month or October..
  • #16,727
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:39am Aug 28, 2007 7:39am
Quoting karmostaji
I will reverse only when this strong support gets broken, otherwise I'm long biased
Hala
dear which strong ris you think?
  • #16,728
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:43am Aug 28, 2007 7:43am
5SMA daily is @ 233.30 area

I read that it reached 5SMA daily, I don't see that.. am i missing something or losing my head..
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #16,729
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:44am Aug 28, 2007 7:44am
Quoting auslanco
As you can see the daily Momentum is very bullush.. Thats why the price is very comfortable around 5SMA daily 5 sma is like a maganet. If there's even a little bit of momentum towards 5 SMA it loves to grab the price to that area. Just today the price tested daily 5 SMA twice, including the recent one. Usually thats the maximum 5 SMA could grab the price.. After this the price will follow the 4hr trend.

Last week a very simmillar scenario. This pair never recoverd from the 219 dip. It just completed the weekly 5 SMA retracement to start it's journey further down(monthly low).

Simple theory behind it...
Auslanco at what point would you consider this entire bearish trend over? thanks
  • #16,730
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:45am Aug 28, 2007 7:45am
Quoting auslanco
As you can see the daily Momentum is very bullush.. Thats why the price is very comfortable around 5SMA daily 5 sma is like a maganet. If there's even a little bit of momentum towards 5 SMA it loves to grab the price to that area. Just today the price tested daily 5 SMA twice, including the recent one. Usually thats the maximum 5 SMA could grab the price.. After this the price will follow the 4hr trend.

Last week a very simmillar scenario. This pair never recoverd from the 219 dip. It just completed the weekly 5 SMA retracement to start it's journey further down(monthly low).

Simple theory behind it...
I see what you're saying now. I just looked at the Daily VT charts which shows the Daily 5SMA in a different location than on my MT4. What you said earlier in Asia makes even more sense to me now. Thanks.

M2B
  • #16,731
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:46am Aug 28, 2007 7:46am
Merrill Lynch downgraded Citigroup Inc, Lehman Brothers Holdings, and Bear Stearns Cos. to neutral from buy. Premarket, the dow is down 44, and my prediction is that it will be down about 200 points today.

If you guys think GJ is going anywhere but down, I suggest you start looking at the news. The consumer confidence number is the only thing that might turn the market up a little, but even a good number will only have limited influence.
  • #16,732
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:46am Aug 28, 2007 7:46am
Quoting karmostaji
5SMA daily is @ 233.30 area

I read that it reached 5SMA daily, I don't see that.. am i missing something or losing my head..
232.40 FXDD MT4
232.51 on VT
  • #16,733
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:47am Aug 28, 2007 7:47am
I suppose if you want to walk in the tall grass you must not cry if the big dogs pee's on you.
  • #16,734
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:48am Aug 28, 2007 7:48am
the only real question is whether GJ breaks that pesky support before or after the US stock market opens.
  • #16,735
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:49am Aug 28, 2007 7:49am
Quoting auslanco
232.40 FXDD MT4
232.51 on VT
weird, MT4 is showing something else.. thanks bud
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #16,736
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:49am Aug 28, 2007 7:49am
Quoting icthelite98
Auslanco at what point would you consider this entire bearish trend over? thanks

Long term : when monthly QQE cross upwards then the real carry trades have started again.
  • #16,737
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:50am Aug 28, 2007 7:50am
Quoting Big Bruv
What is going on in here....baby

is it now a free for all? i tot this was an Aus tread?...
I'm getting confused.... baby...too many trades...
which one...baby...which one?????
Cool down man. Thing is no one really knows for certain where price is going in the future. Make your personal assessment, and make your trade. Or, if you can't, it would probably be wiser to stand back for now, trade another day.
  • #16,738
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:50am Aug 28, 2007 7:50am
Quoting karmostaji
5SMA daily is @ 233.30 area

I read that it reached 5SMA daily, I don't see that.. am i missing something or losing my head..
Same here, broker's platform time is GMT.
  • #16,739
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:50am Aug 28, 2007 7:50am
Quoting karmostaji
weird, MT4 is showing something else.. thanks bud
It's silly isn't it.. I think it's different from broker to broker(data feed)
  • #16,740
  • Aug 28, 2007 7:50am Aug 28, 2007 7:50am
DOW will start the day negative i suppose right guys? anyone know anything?
give me my pips back...
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