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  • #19,401
  • Mar 20, 2026 4:23am Mar 20, 2026 4:23am
Quoting johncen
assume we have seen the top of this leg and no more spike i will be watching 1.1550 and 1.1530 for potential next leg up daily it might be good to take liquidity above 1.1665 and retest yearly open 1.1743 before breaking 1.1391
still waiting for pa to go below 1.1550 and near 1.1530 to look for potential long
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,402
  • Mar 20, 2026 5:45am Mar 20, 2026 5:45am
Quoting johncen
{quote} still waiting for pa to go below 1.1550 and near 1.1530 to look for potential long
Probably we'll see a stop hunt to any sellers left up there - 1616
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,403
  • Mar 20, 2026 6:44am Mar 20, 2026 6:44am
Quoting johncen
{quote} still waiting for pa to go below 1.1550 and near 1.1530 to look for potential long
I'm not sure you're going to see that much of a pullback.

Myself I'm long here 1.1575 with a 30 point stop and a TP @1.1630
  • #19,404
  • Mar 20, 2026 7:48am Mar 20, 2026 7:48am
Quoting josip
If price breaks out of the wedge to the downside, the following steps apply: 1. Return to the blue line (1.1528) A downside break from the wedge would signal local buyer exhaustion. At that point, the 1.1528 level (blue line) becomes the main magnet. This is a classic retest of a previous breakout. The market often comes back to “kiss” a level it previously broke strongly, to confirm that buy orders are still present there. 2. Liquidity below 1.1552 Between the current price and the blue line lies the 1.1552 level. If price drops out of the wedge,...
update
resistance zone / supply (H1) (Green line 1.15808)
This level is now the main obstacle for further upside.
Price has reacted to it very precisely – candle wicks have pierced into this zone, but the candle bodies have not closed above it yet.
If the market fails to break this level, it will be confirmed as a local top.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: b.png Size: 42 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,405
  • Mar 20, 2026 9:19pm Mar 20, 2026 9:19pm
Quoting fx6996
{quote} I'm not sure you're going to see that much of a pullback. Myself I'm long here 1.1575 with a 30 point stop and a TP @1.1630
we actually have been given good opportunities to build longs…. Let see what happen next week
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,406
  • Mar 21, 2026 2:53am Mar 21, 2026 2:53am
The EUR/USD traded down to 1.1414 at the start of the week but staged a recovery to close higher. After breaching the 1.1600 level, the pair printed a high of 1.1616 before consolidating just below that mark.

Currently, support at 1.1449 is holding as the pair trades above the 1.1500/25 zone. There is a slight bullish bias toward the 1.1616-1.1633 resistance zone and a breakout above this area could see the pair reach the immediate level of 1.1667, with stronger resistance looming at the 1.1700/10 region.

On the downside, if 1.1500 gives way, sellers may drive the price lower toward the 1.1411/14 zone. Should that level fail to hold, the focus shifts toward the critical support level at 1.1391.


Weekly volatility (range) 144 pips

Significant news - EU/US PMI'S, US Initial Jobless Claims & US University Michigan Sentiment Final


Have great weekend!

4H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2026-03-21_08-50-49.png Size: 53 KB
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,407
  • Mar 21, 2026 5:14am Mar 21, 2026 5:14am
Quoting josip
{quote} update resistance zone / supply (H1) (Green line 1.15808) This level is now the main obstacle for further upside. Price has reacted to it very precisely – candle wicks have pierced into this zone, but the candle bodies have not closed above it yet. If the market fails to break this level, it will be confirmed as a local top. {image}
update1

Critical Point

  1. 1.1578 → Key LH (Lower High)
  2. Break above → CHoCH UP (Change of Character)
  3. Rejection → Continuation Down
  4. Bounce below → Pullback only

1.1578 → This is the final point where sellers demonstrated dominance and prevented the price from moving higher (Double Top on H1).
Until the price closes above this level, the market remains technically in distribution and is targeting lower prices.

Summary:

  1. Above 1.1530 → First sign of reversal (Bulllish = CHoCH on lower TF - M15,H1)
  2. Above 1.1578 → Confirmed bullish trend (CHoCH/BOS on higher TF - H1,H4)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.png Size: 42 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,408
  • Mar 21, 2026 5:49am Mar 21, 2026 5:49am
DXY H1

What does this mean for our EURUSD plan?

  1. DXY below the orange channel: This increases the probability of our EURUSD CHoCH UP (a breakout above 1.1578).
  2. DXY re-testing the orange line: This is the moment when EURUSD might perform a small pullback to the blue line (1.1528). Once the DXY completes the re-test and starts dropping, EURUSD will shoot up.
  3. Actual danger for the Dollar short (and EURUSD long) would only occur once the DXY closes inside the orange channel.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY.png Size: 35 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,409
  • Edited Mar 22, 2026 3:36pm Mar 21, 2026 7:47pm | Edited Mar 22, 2026 3:36pm
The 20-200 MA's are currently trading in Oliver Velez's "FAB Four" location (M15) with both moving sideways close together between the hi and low on Friday ALL IN NARROW RANGE. This is the most powerful location for a breakout but the confusion lies within the time frames. Higher time frames are Bearish and lower time frames are Bullish. There's a ton of trapped Bulls above the current level and the 20 200 on the Daily does not support the M15. Price will ALWAYS move in the direction of the higher time frames with Institutional Money over time. If big boys are selling they need willing buyers which how so many traders have been trapped since the multi year top in Jan. Price has barely reversed, maybe 20%, from the RECENT 1.14 low to the JAN 1.21 High. Personally, I'm looking for another Bull Trap but it doesn't mean I wouldn't day trade a Long....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: CHART 2.png Size: 71 KB
  • #19,410
  • Mar 22, 2026 11:16pm Mar 22, 2026 11:16pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} we actually have been given good opportunities to build longs…. Let see what happen next week
don’t think my view has changed despite a gap down for eu. 1530-50 remain good spot to build long this week to go higher.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,411
  • Mar 22, 2026 11:35pm Mar 22, 2026 11:35pm
The EUR/USD is currently trading within a wide range between 1.1443 and 1.1616. While there is no clear directional bias, the pair maintains a bearish tone on the 4 hour chart as long as it remains below 1.1667.

In the shorter term, the 1.1525 and 1.1500-1.1491 zones are expected to support a move toward 1.1581 and 1.1600/16, provided a break lower does not occur. If those support levels fail, the lower 1.1445 level will likely come back into the sellers crosshairs.


Daily volatility (range) 66 pips


Have great week!

1H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,412
  • Mar 23, 2026 12:50am Mar 23, 2026 12:50am
Hello, friends! I hope you all had a wonderful weekend.
1- In my view, the trend remains bearish on the H4 timeframe as long as the candlesticks have not broken through the downtrend line.
2- As long as the candlesticks do not close above the 1.1555 level, I consider the trend to be bearish in the short term.
3- Let's see what the London and New York sessions have in store for us.
<Happy Trading!>
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Often, your absence is better than your presence.
  • #19,413
  • Edited 3:03am Mar 23, 2026 2:20am | Edited 3:03am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H1.jpg Size: 46 KB

On the chart, we can see that around 1.1490 there is an intersection of two important lines:

Upper turquoise (blue) line: This line defined the downtrend. If price returns to it from above, it turns from resistance into support (a so-called retest).
Lower white line: This ascending line connects important lows from previous days.
Result: When these two lines meet at one point, they create a so-called “Hotspot.”

Relation to the green line (1.1525): Since we are currently above 1.1525, the 1.1490 level acts as a “safety net.”
If the green line breaks, 1.1490 is the level where the drop should be contained before price even gets close to green line at 1.14589.

If we do not break below the 1.1525 level (green line) — meaning the market confirms it as a valid support — it will create an ideal springboard for a retest of the upper resistance (R).

1.1525 (H1)
must hold for the bullish scenario to stay alive
without it, CHOCH cannot even form
cca 1.1490 = Last line of defense for H1 bullish zone

1.1530–1.1540 = CONFIRMATION
break of the LH = real CHOCH
only here does the structure shift

H4 (higher context)
CHOCH UP ≈ 1.1570 – 1.1580
BOS UP only above this level

H4 still remains:
-either bearish
-or in a correction
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,414
  • Mar 23, 2026 2:47am Mar 23, 2026 2:47am
Amidst the pre-London session volatility, I settled for a gain of 6 points. I do not currently feel comfortable with the price movements; therefore, I prefer to wait.
Often, your absence is better than your presence.
  • #19,415
  • Mar 23, 2026 4:36am Mar 23, 2026 4:36am
Quoting johncen
{quote} don’t think my view has changed despite a gap down for eu. 1530-50 remain good spot to build long this week to go higher.
didnt get the momentum i want after London open, will have to wait
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,416
  • Mar 23, 2026 4:49am Mar 23, 2026 4:49am
Quoting johncen
{quote} didnt get the momentum i want after London open, will have to wait
What entry are you waiting for?
meanwhile, trendlines
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15.jpg Size: 34 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,417
  • Mar 23, 2026 4:53am Mar 23, 2026 4:53am
Quoting josip
{quote} What entry are you waiting for? meanwhile, trendlines {image}
if 1530 not working then will be somewhere close to 1490 that I will be watching closely.
1h and 4h are telling different stories atm. 1h a bullish trend while 4h a bearish trend.
however daily wise we have had a break of structure so make sense for a retracement.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,418
  • Mar 23, 2026 4:57am Mar 23, 2026 4:57am
Quoting johncen
{quote} if 1530 not working then will be somewhere close to 1490 that I will be watching closely. 1h and 4h are telling different stories atm. 1h a bullish trend while 4h a bearish trend. however daily wise we have had a break of structure so make sense for a retracement.
safe trade will be wait for 1440 or 1570 to see which direction we are heading to. There are too much mixed signals while in between
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,419
  • Mar 23, 2026 5:08am Mar 23, 2026 5:08am
Quoting johncen
{quote} safe trade will be wait for 1440 or 1570 to see which direction we are heading to. There are too much mixed signals while in between
The trend is your friend until proven otherwise.
Currently, the structure on charts (H1 and H4) is clearly bearish.
Any bounce upward that fails to break the key barrier must technically be considered a retracement (pullback)—essentially the market "taking a breath" before the next move lower.
key was (is) 1.1525-30
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,420
  • Mar 23, 2026 5:14am Mar 23, 2026 5:14am
Quoting josip
{quote} The trend is your friend until proven otherwise. Currently, the structure on charts (H1 and H4) is clearly bearish. Any bounce upward that fails to break the key barrier must technically be considered a retracement (pullback)—essentially the market "taking a breath" before the next move lower. key was (is) 1.1525-30
yea hence i stopped and waiting for a clearer signal
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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