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The Swamp

  • #127,001
  • Mar 17, 2026 12:23am Mar 17, 2026 12:23am
Quoting axecap
{image}
they have,, Katie Johnson was talked about about 2015/16..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,002
  • Mar 17, 2026 2:10am Mar 17, 2026 2:10am
Quoting gatorinla
Pa is building pressure for up/down. if its to be up. 1530/60 has some R. If the 1h divergence I see holds. This may be all it gets at the 1502 high. -1488 would be a start. -1457 sustained is likely a confirmation.
pa is below 1488 now.. Bears need it to resist. or it can rise,,, its testing now..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,003
  • Mar 17, 2026 2:19am Mar 17, 2026 2:19am
Quoting axecap
{quote} say what you really think....I think the "plan" is to take over Kharg island and then play king of all the oil. The troops are on the way and about 10 days away. It will be a total clusterfuck. I see hes cancelling trip to china.....America needs him at home. I think hes scared Iran might have done a deal with China free oil for a dead orange muppet
Yeah but he is trying to avoid "Island " headlines. Sadly young patriots are already dead. The straight jacket needs to come. You can blame the cowards who know better in the senate and congress. They should remove the cancer. We got a guy who admittedly sniffed cocaine off toilet seats in charge of our health. The sad part is the senate with doctors voted for this kind of shit. They fucking knew what he was, They don't give a fuck about us.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,004
  • Mar 17, 2026 2:22am Mar 17, 2026 2:22am
Quoting gatorinla
Lets see. Israel bombs Irans oils facilities. Iran bombs regional oil facilities of their neighbors. Hurmuz closed is about 20% of the oil supply. I know oil dropped from the high this week. But why is it not 160 pb+. If you were Iran, what else would you bomb? In the desert maybe the desalination plants? I mean if Iran wants Putin to be happy. Make the demand for Russian oil higher. China will buy it. So will many more. More demand would help Russia. Russia in turn helps Iran. Ukraine killing Russian oil is a wildcard. Either way oil should rise....
It has an average increase of 2 USD per day, with an almost perfectly linear trend.
As long as Hormuz does not reopen, and I do not see how it would, the tendency remains upward, with continuing pressure on the markets.
I also see that there are not many countries willing to support the United States and Israel this time. Almost everyone seems to have a strategy other than war.
However, every day in which Iran is still able to attack oil-related assets is another day in which the economy weakens.
I can see this as well in consumer confidence, consumer credit, private credit, and durable goods consumption.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #127,005
  • Mar 17, 2026 2:31am Mar 17, 2026 2:31am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} It has an average increase of 2 USD per day, with an almost perfectly linear trend. As long as Hormuz does not reopen, and I do not see how it would, the tendency remains upward, with continuing pressure on the markets. I also see that there are not many countries willing to support the United States and Israel this time. Almost everyone seems to have a strategy other than war. However, every day in which Iran is still able to attack oil-related assets is another day in which the economy weakens. I can see this as well in consumer confidence,...
There is some equilibrian in this. A bad economy needs less oil. There's always that. All U.S. recessions started with a spike in oil since 1970. We had one spike in 56 years that didn't end in a recession, but it had inflation.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,006
  • Mar 17, 2026 9:32am Mar 17, 2026 9:32am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} It has an average increase of 2 USD per day, with an almost perfectly linear trend. As long as Hormuz does not reopen, and I do not see how it would, the tendency remains upward, with continuing pressure on the markets. I also see that there are not many countries willing to support the United States and Israel this time. Almost everyone seems to have a strategy other than war. However, every day in which Iran is still able to attack oil-related assets is another day in which the economy weakens. I can see this as well in consumer confidence,...
some of the different countries are tapping into their strategic oil reserves to curve fuel rises. That don't last long. Diesel is nearing 5$ by me. About a 40% rise now this year
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,007
  • Mar 17, 2026 9:54am Mar 17, 2026 9:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} some of the different countries are tapping into their strategic oil reserves to curve fuel rises. That don't last long. Diesel is nearing 5$ by me. About a 40% rise now this year {image}
Yes, that sounds like the SNB was intervening on the CHF. Those reserves will disappear quickly if Hormuz does not reopen.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #127,008
  • Mar 17, 2026 10:00am Mar 17, 2026 10:00am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} some of the different countries are tapping into their strategic oil reserves to curve fuel rises. That don't last long. Diesel is nearing 5$ by me. About a 40% rise now this year {image}
spot diesel is up 90% this year. That spike last week was 115%. Prices tend to hold longer up, and slowly come down.
Every middleman in the cain from fuel to delivering the widget adds their own % in the finale price of anything. An example in my area is whatever that add on has, My state and local sales tax adds to the new higher price in percentage. Just a 1 usd rise in the price adds about 8% to the cost.. Not including the middleman add in their % down the line in a widget's price. That alone can make the widgets new price difference + an added 8%+ to that difference.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,009
  • Mar 17, 2026 10:22am Mar 17, 2026 10:22am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Yes, that sounds like the SNB was intervening on the CHF. Those reserves will disappear quickly if Hormuz does not reopen.
Why would it open? How many times have we done the same thing and expected a different outcome? Winning the war is the easy part. The political win is the costly part. We don't learn. Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq. The war part is the easy part. The after math is what cost. What now? We spent 8 trillion bucks in ME wars. Yet here we are again. We could of took that 8 trillion and invented a better vehicle that don't need ME oil. And gave everyone healthcare/education and a free car cheaper.
So the reality is gasoline is hundreds of dollars in true cost per gallon
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,010
  • Mar 17, 2026 1:35pm Mar 17, 2026 1:35pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Why would it open? How many times have we done the same thing and expected a different outcome? Winning the war is the easy part. The political win is the costly part. We don't learn. Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq. The war part is the easy part. The after math is what cost. What now? We spent 8 trillion bucks in ME wars. Yet here we are again. We could of took that 8 trillion and invented a better vehicle that don't need ME oil. And gave everyone healthcare/education and a free car cheaper. So the reality is gasoline is hundreds of dollars...
I think we had this discussion a few years ago... a lot of money is made from these wars.
Yes, someone pays the price and someone else makes an enormous amount of money, and the human race still has not learned how to develop without wars. It is probably the one area where we have truly not evolved as a strategy.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #127,011
  • Mar 17, 2026 7:48pm Mar 17, 2026 7:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
I used some spellcheck to clean this up. I used some news sources instead of just me. The numbers may be a little off than earlier. But they should be close. A; Its about to get worse before the official numbers even admit it. PCE is behind. Thats the trap. January PCE does not include the March oil shock, yet markets and households are already paying March prices. Reuters reported U.S. consumer sentiment fell in early March as gas prices jumped more than 21% after the war began, while January PCE still showed 2.8% headline and 3.1% core year over...
Its about 18 more days to sail around Africa. Anyone remember what happened when the Suez canal was blocked by one ship? 1 sunken ship blocking Suez while the Houthi control, and can close the Straight of Mandeb. The Red Sea would be blocked. If this was blocked by a ship in Suez, that's about 98% of China to Europe imports. Aprox 1/2 of China to U.S. imports pass through Suez (East coast). In this case these choke points stop all Saudis and others oil exports. China exports could see 18 days added to reach Europe or USA East coast. Inflation through the ass. Oil prices through the ass. I dont know if the Houthi want to fuck with China blocking the oil and cargo. But they may want to screw the Saudis. They can screw the world if they want.

https://www.thetimes.com/world/middl...T01l7tLA%3D%3D
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,012
  • Mar 17, 2026 8:23pm Mar 17, 2026 8:23pm
Its not giving signs but a little divergence. If the 6h closes below 1510 in 1.5 hs, It may signal a down day tomorrow.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,013
  • Mar 17, 2026 8:30pm Mar 17, 2026 8:30pm
this could be funny. The men's anti doping agency wants to ban trump from the Olympics and the world cup. The dues were not paid
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,014
  • Edited 1:05am Mar 18, 2026 12:50am | Edited 1:05am
Quoting gatorinla
Its not giving signs but a little divergence. If the 6h closes below 1510 in 1.5 hs, It may signal a down day tomorrow. {image}
it did not make this move. Its likely an up day (Unless it was to drop and close the next 12h below 1510 unlikely). The high before LC, whatever it is. Has a statistical chance of being the week's high.

With a short signal to back it up. That high could can be the risk. Its bullish, but that high for the week is where to look for rejection.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,015
  • Mar 18, 2026 8:36am Mar 18, 2026 8:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It held for a bit as R, then it retested the low. But now its above 1456/57 again. 1457 is supportive, in a bearish trend. Bears can look for entries on the bearish trend, but its likely going to need -1457 sustained to get a run lower. 1488 may come into play too. Its lower than its counterpart. Confirming the bear trend. The rise today above 1457 is smaller. Pa is in the 1h bear divergence. I think more a head fake rise. Some liquid sweep for bulls. I can be wrong.
1488 can support. I see oil still below 100. I think it will change and eu will have to fall when oil rises. That may take some more time. Eu bellow 1488 can allow a deeper run.. especially if below 1457 and 44. But its Wednesday, the week high and low may be in the bank already. Closing the week below 1488 to me would be bearish. 1488 is lower than it counterpart. That's likely a trend indication. To continue back below 1488 would do it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,016
  • Edited 9:02am Mar 18, 2026 8:50am | Edited 9:02am
on the GBP 3296 may support.. break it and it can fall.
Sustain on either side and pa should grind, or run from it some.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,017
  • Mar 18, 2026 9:26am Mar 18, 2026 9:26am
oil is inching up still.. if it pops it may be visble in the usd strengthen in forex. cad too.
Equities would likely do bad.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,018
  • Mar 18, 2026 2:06pm Mar 18, 2026 2:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1488 can support. I see oil still below 100. I think it will change and eu will have to fall when oil rises. That may take some more time. Eu bellow 1488 can allow a deeper run.. especially if below 1457 and 44. But its Wednesday, the week high and low may be in the bank already. Closing the week below 1488 to me would be bearish. 1488 is lower than it counterpart. That's likely a trend indication. To continue back below 1488 would do it.
pa has a 1h close below 1488 now, it may start to resist more a longer/larger time possible start after gathering the liquid. the gu 3296 doing the same.
.. Those may turn out as entry areas if it provides some indication. the chf may have let the horse out already.. but it too may shift while it equalizes.. its 100 pips above .7681.. While they equalize that area if it made it there is a possible long area. over the next 30ish days.
UJ 159.13 if it was to retrace down 60 pips and it was acting like support with the larger closes or volume etc. Whatever you use to show a bounce has potential
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,019
  • Mar 18, 2026 2:18pm Mar 18, 2026 2:18pm
If the eu manages a foothold under 1457.. the floor could open, the truth is Wednesday often stops newer highs or lows on the week (once LC is made)
below 1488 since its larger than 1457 could already be a breakout.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,020
  • Mar 18, 2026 4:07pm Mar 18, 2026 4:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} pa has a 1h close below 1488 now, it may start to resist more a longer/larger time possible start after gathering the liquid. the gu 3296 doing the same. .. Those may turn out as entry areas if it provides some indication. the chf may have let the horse out already.. but it too may shift while it equalizes.. its 100 pips above .7681.. While they equalize that area if it made it there is a possible long term area. over the next 30ish days. UJ...
Long term is what I meant. I left "term" out earlier. For the next 30 days.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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