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Trading the NFP this friday

  • #201
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:01pm Dec 8, 2006 1:01pm
Off the point a bit but does anyone know what the biggest ever single order has been? in USD

This may lead to my second question and that is whether the currency market is becoming manipulatable again?
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #202
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:03pm Dec 8, 2006 1:03pm
Quoting notouch
He was implying that more longs that shorts had been bought.
]

I see what you are saying but I think when somebody says what he was saying they are just specifying who initiated the trade. This of course determines which side of the spread it trades on and of course hense the corresponding price movement.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #203
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:10pm Dec 8, 2006 1:10pm
Anyone think that that big gap on the GBP/USD and EUR/USD charts will be filled?
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #204
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:11pm Dec 8, 2006 1:11pm
You mean the bit about central bank buying? That I suppose would be interesting if it was true but I personally doubt that central banks dabble in the futures market immediately after NFP.
  • #205
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:11pm Dec 8, 2006 1:11pm
What big gap SimonK?
  • #206
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:13pm Dec 8, 2006 1:13pm
Well, i just wanna share with you guys that actually this is my first NFP trade on my very first live account (just started funding about a week ago), and up till now i still have no idea what was just happening. When that NFP was released, I was like....:surprised wtf???.
I was initially straddling the NFP with -10 pip stop loss and it triggered the short stop order and in just a matter of seconds it hit my sl. I were paralyzed for about 3 or 4 minutes after that, realizing what was just happened, before opening a long market order on g/u (thanks to Merlin analysis and Moe's hint) and came out with 67 pips profit. I must say that one was quite a shocking experience for a newbie like me and a lucky one too, perhaps i should stay away from NFP next time, i dont know .
  • #207
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:20pm Dec 8, 2006 1:20pm
Nah, just play really small trade sizes until you are comfortable. And when I say really small, I mean so small that if you lose 50 or 60 pips it wont cost but say 2% of your account. This way you can still play it and get a feel for the game. As you get good you can trade a little larger. If you lose most of the time trade even smaller.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #208
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:32pm Dec 8, 2006 1:32pm
NEVER straddle non-farms, many people get burned by this report, so becareful with it. 10 pip straddle with tight stop loss is not the way to go. You will lose money, psychological mentality and sanity for that short while when you are trading non-farms. Non-farms is the biggest report each month, NEVER straddle with it. Too dangerous, volitility and broker problems.
  • #209
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:39pm Dec 8, 2006 1:39pm
I love this wild market, was on the demo went short with 10 lots EUR/USD at 1.3275 just about 6 minutes after the market news.Painfully watching my for an hour the trade going the other way until I saw my account was on -$8500 and I finally "accept my losses" so I just closed the trade. Just woke up about now and found out the USD just rallied,should of just stayed on firm cause I had lots of room.Wow!!! What a good example to learn for a newbie about trading the news.Just glad it was on a demo.
  • #210
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:46pm Dec 8, 2006 1:46pm
With regards to reasons, I am looking for post analysis. While the trade is going on...i dont necessarily need to know why its moving in a certain direction because I am getting an idea of that. The NFP came in better than usual and thus the USD gained value. I do not understand why it rebounded twice. Understanding the market will make me more agile and adept at determining which way to trade.

I have not had the opportunity to study price action at the moment so I need to gain information however I can. I am just curious as to why the market reacted the way it did AFTER it moved. While its moving i can try and go with the flow but I need to learn from my mistakes. Thats why I want to do some post analysis. I have not seen this market spike 3 times in such a short period of time. I want to know what to look out for when the market starts acting wild.

thanks.

btw...what time frame to trade off of when trading the news?

thanks.
  • #211
  • Dec 8, 2006 2:16pm Dec 8, 2006 2:16pm
Just wondering if anybody picked up on this head and shoulder trade earlier on the cable (5min chart)
Attached Image
  • #212
  • Dec 8, 2006 2:27pm Dec 8, 2006 2:27pm
Hi NoTouch

On my Metatrader charts (MIG demo), there's a gap down on EURUSD and GBPUSD at about 17:25 GMT.

On OandA, there's actually a line down, so dont know what happened.
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #213
  • Dec 8, 2006 2:34pm Dec 8, 2006 2:34pm
Quoting SimonK
Hi NoTouch

On my Metatrader charts (MIG demo), there's a gap down on EURUSD and GBPUSD at about 17:25 GMT.

On OandA, there's actually a line down, so dont know what happened.

Classic case of the broker saying and making charts look like they "gapped". I traded through all 3 big moves with no problems at all. And my MT4 charts don't show a gap. Which broker are you using for that?
  • #214
  • Dec 8, 2006 2:58pm Dec 8, 2006 2:58pm
damn pound went up 100+ pips then drop 200+ pips, nobody had a clue, this is one of the crazest n.f.p. i have seen in a while.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #215
  • Dec 8, 2006 3:27pm Dec 8, 2006 3:27pm
Actually TTn gave a clue it was going to happen about an hour before NFP.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&postcount=190

I caught the rise and then I caught the fall.


Quoting Moe
damn pound went up 100+ pips then drop 200+ pips, nobody had a clue, this is one of the crazest n.f.p. i have seen in a while.
  • #216
  • Dec 8, 2006 3:51pm Dec 8, 2006 3:51pm
Quoting Moe
damn pound went up 100+ pips then drop 200+ pips, nobody had a clue, this is one of the crazest n.f.p. i have seen in a while.
16:36 08Dec2006 TREASURY'S PAULSON SAYS STRONG JOBS PICTURE BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE INTO BETTER INCOME GROWTH-CNBC
16:37 08Dec2006 PAULSON SAYS APPEARS TO BE GOOD CHANCE OF MAINTAINING SUSTAINED ECONOMIC GROWTH
  • #217
  • Dec 8, 2006 4:17pm Dec 8, 2006 4:17pm
Quoting vder
With regards to reasons, I am looking for post analysis. While the trade is going on...i dont necessarily need to know why its moving in a certain direction because I am getting an idea of that. The NFP came in better than usual and thus the USD gained value. I do not understand why it rebounded twice. Understanding the market will make me more agile and adept at determining which way to trade.

I have not had the opportunity to study price action at the moment so I need to gain information however I can. I am just curious as to why the market reacted the way it did AFTER it moved. While its moving i can try and go with the flow but I need to learn from my mistakes. Thats why I want to do some post analysis. I have not seen this market spike 3 times in such a short period of time. I want to know what to look out for when the market starts acting wild.

thanks.

btw...what time frame to trade off of when trading the news?

thanks.
The NFP came out stronger then expected with 2 revisions; October was revised down, but September was revised up. Finding the difference revealed that 42,000 additional jobs were added over the Sept-Oct period. So the $ got stronger on the original number, weakened after the Oct revision then got stronger again after the difference was accounted for! Or figured the avg over the 3 month period which was 138,000/month. So it's not really acting wild, it reacting exactly as expected from the numbers.

Did TTN have all the revisions and the math that showed the added jobs?
  • #218
  • Dec 8, 2006 4:32pm Dec 8, 2006 4:32pm
I am not sure, because I stopped listening closely soon after the rise... Let me go look at the written history and I will type back...



Quoting NewstraderFX
The NFP came out stronger then expected with 2 revisions; October was revised down, but September was revised up. Finding the difference revealed that 42,000 additional jobs were added over the Sept-Oct period. So the $ got stronger on the original number, weakened after the Oct revision then got stronger again after the difference was accounted for! Or figured the avg over the 3 month period which was 138,000/month. So it's not really acting wild, it reacting exactly as expected from the numbers.

Did TTN have all the revisions and the math that showed the added jobs?
  • #219
  • Dec 8, 2006 4:37pm Dec 8, 2006 4:37pm
Here it is:

And the second one is my other news feed
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File Type: zip ScreenHunter_033.zip   16 KB | 315 downloads
File Type: zip ScreenHunter_035.zip   23 KB | 280 downloads
  • #220
  • Dec 8, 2006 5:29pm Dec 8, 2006 5:29pm
Quoting Moe
damn pound went up 100+ pips then drop 200+ pips, nobody had a clue, this is one of the crazest n.f.p. i have seen in a while.
I never know how the NFP will bounce around but at the end of the day it always follows the 4 hour trend. Check it out. I'm guessing the big boys were all short, people saw it briefly hit 1.9540, it didn't really break it so everyone bought. At 1.9700, the big boys, said enough is enough and sold some more. They were never going to let it get too high. Remember, the big boys ALWAYS determine and have ultimate control of the market's direction. And remember how liquidity dries up? Well if you think its hard to get a decent quote on a few lots durring NFP, imagine trying to find the liqidity for several hundred million. This is why the big boys already have all their positions entered BEFORE any data ever comes out, and its also why the NFP will never provoke a sudden reversal in the trend.
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