The Swamp

The golden dome seems to have run out of protection.
There is no peace with idiots like this in the administration.

These fucking idiots write checks, and expect our young boys to carry them out.

A; Its about to get bad next week. PCE is too far behind. Its a trap. It didnt show March with the oil spike. Its just has Jan. Next month with just have Feb. The March report wont come out until April. That's in 10 weeks. Today's inflation when added with the Goldman Oil inflation model using oil prices (each 10%X 0.2 = inflation rise). Using just 100 $ pb. (+65% rise current price rise) X 0.2% = 1.3%+ current inflation, or about 4.3% in June. Double the Fed target of 2%.. Meaning no rate cuts. If oil goes higher.. This is based on 100$ oil. The 4.3 rises as oil rises. You may see some large drops in equities soon.
That Michigan Survey adds to an equity drop trajectory. Itd closer to real time. Its suggesting inflation, iline with the Goldman Model.

B; 1. Iran appears to be going for a total economic global reset. The headlines are mostly about Hormuz (20%) of world supply. Iraq the number 2 Opec producer was struck. 2 ships were hit near the Basra oil terminal. Iraq closed all it's Southern export ports. That's roughly 3.5 million bpd, and 3.5% of world oil supply. Nothing to do with sanctions or Hormuz. That makes the squeeze on oils supply even worse. 23.5%. But it gets worse. Oman is off line with 1% do to martine hits. The geography of maritime war is widening. The weekend arncroach warrier is getting a reality check hitting the wallet. This happened Wednesday after the large spike. I dont get why its not reflected yet, but still expect a new ATH 160 pb or more.
2. U.S. tanker on Thursday hit. Safesea Vishnu registered in New Jersey. Insurance dont cover war damage. Now U.S. vessels may pull out.
3. China bans refined oil exports. A shortage of fuel is coming worldwide. Next week may be bad when this realization hits.
C; LeBanon just to show the world new fronts can open. Not to win, just economic overextend exhaust.

Every indicator of economic health is pointing down already.
.Next week the Fed meet with a dual mandate. Jobs and inflation. Its a trap, Max employment ot 2% inflation. Either move hurts the other. Cut feeds inflation, holding hurts employment. There was an expectation of 3 cuts before Iran. Maybe 1 now. Powell leaves in May.

Back to Florida;;; Higher fuel means less discretionary spending. Less money for restaurants/hotels and Florida trips. More pain is coming to Florida. Higher airfares is another. Less vacation spending.
Tired of winning yet? In less than 10 weeks many about to retire may see that 401 k and inflation add some time before retirement.
Walmart is hiring greeters. There is always an opening for fruit pickers

I used some spellcheck to clean this up. I used some news sources instead of just me. The numbers may be a little off than earlier. But they should be close.

A; Its about to get worse before the official numbers even admit it.
PCE is behind. Thats the trap. January PCE does not include the March oil shock, yet markets and households are already paying March prices. Reuters reported U.S. consumer sentiment fell in early March as gas prices jumped more than 21% after the war began, while January PCE still showed 2.8% headline and 3.1% core year over year. So the official inflation data is late to the damage.
The labor side was already weakening before this hit full force. Reuters reported the U.S. unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs in February and unemployment rose to 4.4%. That means this is not an oil shock hitting a strong economy. It is an oil shock hitting a slowing one. That is why the Fed is trapped. Cut and risk feeding inflation. Hold and risk hitting jobs harder.
B; The public headline is still Hormuz at 20%. That headline is too low for the real stress in the system.
Yes, about one fifth of the worlds oil and LNG flows through Hormuz. But that number is only the main chokepoint. It does not count what happens when the routes around it are also limited, dangerous, delayed, or hit. Reuters says this is now the biggest oil supply disruption in history, with March global supply expected to fall by about 8 million barrels per day, around 8% of global supply, and Gulf production cuts above 10 million bpd.
Saudi Arabia can push some oil west through the East-West system, but that is not a magic fix. Reuters reported Saudi rerouting efforts are real, but the bypass is constrained by port loading, tanker availability, shipping costs, and security. Fujairah outside Hormuz was partly suspended after a drone strike and fire. Oman’s Salalah also took a hit. Iraq separately collapsed from about 4.3 million bpd to 1.3 million bpd. So no, this is not just a neat 20% story. Once you count the bypass routes under pressure and separate supply losses outside Hormuz, the part of the oil system under disruption, impairment, or threat moves up into the high 20s. That is why 26% to 30% under stress is a more honest way to think about it than the TV version.
C; This is not just crude. This is diesel, jet fuel, fertilizer, shipping, insurance, and confidence.
Reuters reported diesel markets are being upended, with analysts estimating diesel supply losses of 3 to 4 million barrels per day tied to Hormuz disruptions, plus another 500,000 bpd blocked from Middle Eastern refiners. Diesel matters because diesel moves trucks, farms, mining, construction, rail, backup generation, and heavy equipment. When diesel gets squeezed, transport pays, agriculture pays, manufacturing pays, and retail pays. Everybody pays.
Then China moved to protect itself. Reuters reported China is tapping fertilizer reserves early because Hormuz disruption is already hitting fertilizer production and shipping, and more than 30% of nitrogen fertilizer exports move through Hormuz. China also moved to restrict fuel exports in March. That means this is not just a crude problem anymore. It is a refined products problem and a fertilizer problem too. First fuel. Then freight. Then fertilizer. Then food.
D; This is where the poor countries get hit first.
If fertilizer gets tight and rich countries bid harder for supply, poor countries do not just pay more. Some of them do not get enough. Reuters reported the U.N. warned the war is disrupting aid delivery and raising energy and food costs for crisis zones, including Sudan. So yes, children in Sudan and other poor places feel this earlier and harder than rich countries do. Rich countries outbid poor countries for fuel, food, fertilizer, and freight. That is how a war in an oil route turns into hunger somewhere else.
And then the downline keeps moving. If fertilizer costs more, food costs more. If food costs more, families have less money left after basics. If they have less left, they do not travel, they do not eat out, they do not spend on hotels, they do not buy the extra stuff, and they do not take the vacation. That is how fuel and fertilizer become weak discretionary spending, and weak discretionary spending becomes weaker jobs in tourism, retail, restaurants, trucking, and consumer services.
E; This goes straight into the stock market.
People keep acting like the stock market is some side note. It isnt. Reuters reported that as tanker attacks intensified and oil surged toward $100, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each fell more than 1.5% in a single session, while global stock indexes also dropped sharply. That is not random. That is the market pricing in higher energy, higher inflation, weaker margins, slower growth, and fewer Fed cuts.
And that means 401ks get drained too. A lot of people do not experience “the economy” through an index chart. They experience it through a retirement statement, a grocery bill, and whether their job still feels safe. If stocks fall while food, fuel, rent, and insurance keep rising, regular people get hit from both directions at the same time. Their 401k goes down while their cost of living goes up. That is the part that changes peoples lives.
F; Every company in the world has transportation cost somewhere in its chain.
Every company ships something, buys something, powers something, insures something, or moves something. Every truck burns diesel. Every airline burns fuel. Every retailer pays freight. Every factory buys inputs. Every farm uses fuel and fertilizer. So when energy jumps and shipping gets dangerous, companies get hit from both sides. Costs rise. Demand weakens. That is how profits get squeezed. Reuters reported diesel costs are already feeding into transport, agriculture, and manufacturing and raising fears of stagflation.
That is why stocks can fall hard. Not because traders woke up emotional. Because the math changes. Higher energy. Higher freight. Higher input costs. Lower consumer demand. Lower margins. Lower earnings. Then weaker hiring. That is how an oil shock walks right into the stock market and then into 401ks, pensions, and business confidence.
G; Now the downline. The longer this lasts, the more it moves into building, industry, and investment.
This does not just hit what is already moving. It hits what people were planning to build next. If the shock lasts, businesses stop planning growth and start planning defense. They delay tanker orders. They delay pipeline orders. They delay steel orders. They delay plant upgrades. They delay construction. They freeze hiring. They cut overtime. They stop expansion capex. That part is inference, but it is grounded by the same cost squeeze Reuters is already documenting in diesel, shipping, and industry.
That is how this moves from inflation into contraction. Not because every shipyard shuts tomorrow morning. Not because every steel mill goes dark next Tuesday. But because orders slow, financing tightens, margins collapse, and business confidence dies. First wave is oil. Second wave is diesel and freight. Third wave is factory slowdown, construction slowdown, hiring slowdown, project cancellation, and capital spending freeze. That is the downline.
H; Steel, copper, housing, and the rest of the real economy get hit from both sides too.
If energy and shipping costs rise, steelmaking costs rise. If coking coal, freight, and industrial inputs cost more, steel costs more. At the same time, if projects are delayed and new building slows, demand for steel can fall. Higher cost. Lower demand. That is stagflation. Copper works the same way in principle. Higher energy and chemical costs raise processing costs, while weaker construction and factory demand reduce the appetite for finished metal. Less supply. Higher cost. Less demand. That is not a healthy slowdown. That is a squeezed slowdown.
Housing gets hit too. Building cost goes up because freight, steel, fuel, plastics, copper, and financing all get more expensive or more uncertain. At the same time, consumer demand weakens because people are already spending more on basics. So even housing feels both sides of it. Higher cost to build. Weaker willingness to buy. That is another stagflation channel.
I; Then labor gets it.
Unemployment rises because companies stop hiring and stop expanding, while prices stay high because essentials still cost more. Reuters already reported the U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February, unemployment rose to 4.4%, and the oil shock is now adding fresh inflation pressure. That is the trap. Less product. Less demand. Less workers needed. But the price of basics is still higher. That is stagflation.
And now add AI on top. AI did not cause this oil shock, but it can make the labor side colder. In a normal slowdown, some jobs come back when growth returns. But if companies can combine a slowdown with more automation, then some of those jobs do not come back the same way. That means this labor hit can be harsher than older cycles because firms under pressure have another reason to reduce headcount and automate faster. That part is inference, but it fits the way businesses respond under margin pressure.
J; Asia is where this gets especially dangerous.
Asia is heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy. Japan, South Korea, China, and much of the region depend on oil, LNG, refined products, or shipping lanes tied to the Gulf. Reuters reported Japan is releasing strategic reserves as part of a coordinated IEA release, and the IEA release itself is a record 400 million barrels. Countries do not do that for a paper cut. They do it because the shock is real.
That means this is not just a Gulf problem. It becomes an Asia manufacturing problem, an airline problem, a fertilizer problem, a freight problem, and then a global inflation problem. And once Asia slows, the rest of the world feels that too through trade, factories, shipping, electronics, consumer goods, and confidence.
K; On the intent question.
I cannot verify as fact that Iran’s goal is “to bring economies down” or “reset the world economy.” I need to stay honest there. What I can say is the practical effect of this campaign is much broader than a straight military contest over one waterway. The effect is economic attrition. Oil shock. Diesel shock. Shipping shock. Fertilizer shock. Food shock. Stock-market shock. Confidence shock. Whether that is the declared goal or not, that is the result the world is starting to live through.
L; Final report.
People think this is about 20% of the worlds oil through Hormuz. It is bigger than that. Much bigger. Because the routes around Hormuz are under pressure too. Iraq took a separate hit. Backup outlets took hits. Ships are getting stranded. Insurers are pulling back. Diesel is getting squeezed. Fertilizer is getting squeezed. Poor countries get outbid. Food prices rise. Travel spending falls. Housing costs go up. Steel gets hit. Construction gets hit. Factory margins get hit. Stocks get hit. 401ks get hit. Hiring gets hit. Then unemployment rises while prices stay high.
That is the chain. That is the downline. That is why this can change the whole economy. Not just oil. The whole thing.
Even if the shooting stopped today, the damage would not stop today. Routes have changed. Insurance has repriced. Reserves are being tapped. Buyers are scrambling. Rich countries are outbidding poor ones. Business plans are already being reworked. If it stops now, there is still damage. If it keeps going, the damage compounds. And if it keeps going long enough, this stops being just an energy shock and becomes a stock-market shock, a retirement-account shock, a hiring shock, and a standard-of-living shock.
Gatorinla

UAE seems to be in a bad place. The USA attacked from there with Himars. Iran will retaliate. Dubai is a statement target.

Those desalination plants have a big bulls eye on them. That's what I would shoot for. Easy to get to, unprotected.

I'm young enough to remember 2 idiots grilling Zelenskyy. Asking why he wasn't wearing a suit. He was trying to save his country. With more guts, and brains than the other 2 combined. He tried to tell them the ocean wasn't enough to protect us. "Hold me beer, Bombing Iran without a plan." That should be on a T-shirt. What a difference 1 year makes. I don't think they care about the suit now. The administration is now posting drones attracting Iran's drone footage. With the bullshit its U.S. drones attacking Iran's drones. The reality is it's, Ukraine's drones attacking Iranian drones. Fox fake news purposely omitted the Ukraine connection. Ukraine technology 1000$ drones are helping protect U.S. bases now. While the idiot want to spend billions on new destroyers. Ukraine sunk 1/3 of the Russian Black Sea fleet with drones. Just think what Ukraine could of done with real U.S. support.

While there is active drone combat between the U.S. and Iran in the Middle East, you are correct that much of the high-profile footage showing successful intercepts of Iranian drones actually features Ukrainian technology and expertise.
In fact, as of March 2026, the U.S. has officially turned to Ukraine for help because American defenses were struggling to stop low-cost Iranian Shahed drones efficiently.
Military Times +1
The Reality of the Footage

1. Ukrainian Interceptors in the Middle East: Ukraine has developed specialized "interceptor drones" like the STING (from the group Wild Hornets) and the "Bullet," which are designed to ram into or explode near Shaheds.
2. Media Misidentification: Reports have surfaced of major U.S. outlets using footage of these Ukrainian interceptors while labeling them as U.S. "AI superweapons".
3. Active Deployment: President Zelenskyy recently confirmed that Ukrainian specialist teams and interceptor drones have been deployed to help protect U.S. bases in Jordan and to assist Gulf allies like the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Defense.info +5

Why the U.S. is Using Ukrainian Tech

1. Cost Gap: Traditional U.S. defenses (like Patriot missiles) cost millions per shot, while Iranian Shaheds cost as little as $20,000. Ukraine’s drone-on-drone interceptors cost only about $1,000 to $5,000, making them much more sustainable.
2. Battle-Hardened Experience: Having defended against Iranian-designed drones used by Russia for four years, Ukraine has the world's most practical experience in this specific type of warfare. Defense.info +4

Current Conflict Context
While the U.S. is conducting its own strikes (recently hitting Iranian oil facilities on Kharg Island), the defensive "drone-killing" footage circulating online is increasingly a product of the Ukrainian drone warfare playbook now being exported to the Middle East.
Defense.info +1
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/p...0Middle%20East.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/...223148930.html

it looks to have a slight higher gap. Very bearish looking to me. The 1456 area may have some R,,

You cant make this shit up. After screwing over the farmers. By departing the labor force picking Americas produce. On the quiet they are trying to bring them back.
What stable minded genius figured we need people to pick the produce? This is what happens when morons breed. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/u...rkers-h2a.html

Hang on Florida,, A Cat 10 is coming.

Great posts man...Great posts. @@@!!!

Eu is bearish on the week, but bullish looking today. It looks to rise some. Its already in a bearish divergence area into 1530. It can remain in divergence a long time. Its on the bullish side of 1444 57 and 88. A head fake looks to have a chance. Back to close the 12h in early London may confirm it -1.1444.

It held for a bit as R, then it retested the low. But now its above 1456/57 again. 1457 is supportive, in a bearish trend. Bears can look for entries on the bearish trend, but its likely going to need -1457 sustained to get a run lower.
1488 may come into play too. Its lower than its counterpart. Confirming the bear trend. The rise today above 1457 is smaller. Pa is in the 1h bear divergence. I think more a head fake rise. Some liquid sweep for bulls. I can be wrong.

Pa is building pressure for up/down. if its to be up. 1530/60 has some R. If the 1h divergence I see holds. This may be all it gets at the 1502 high. -1488 would be a start. -1457 sustained is likely a confirmation.

China doesnt need to send ships to escort their tankers......

pa looks bullish, this is what happened the last two rises.

Rally so far over 80.

Yeah the stable genius has shown how much of a moron he is. He wants to blow up Iran's oil facilities. That would just give Iran more reason to shut the straight. He is at war with Iran and at the same time unfreezing their assets. Russia is the targeting U.S. military with detailed locations for Iran to kill them. Yet he is removing the sanctions on Russia. This guy is likely taking off his diaper and playing with it. He needs to be removed and put in a straight jacket. The syphilis is in his brain. Its fitting like Al Capone. But at least Capone had balls.

say what you really think....I think the "plan" is to take over Kharg island and then play king of all the oil. The troops are on the way and about 10 days away.
It will be a total clusterfuck. I see hes cancelling trip to china.....America needs him at home. I think hes scared Iran might have done a deal with China free oil for a dead orange muppet

bitcoin a few days back closed above 70,860.. that is above the bullish side for me. it may start to support there,
79,748 can resist day close wise. The week is still bearish at 108.000 the, month support at 57,550... I may not get the buy after 44,118