XAUUSD NY Open Range Breakout Scalping System

(What actually works in 2025-2026 – No hype, pure math)
Hey guys,
After testing dozens of ORB variations on XAUUSD M1, I finally locked in this exact filter set that consistently gives me 58-68% win rate with average 2.2R+ per trade when using the 50/30/20 scale-out.

This is the complete system I run live every day. Built from real screenshots, backtested logic and live chart analysis.

### CORE RULES (must be the FIRST valid candle only)
1. Draw NY Open Range (09:30–09:34/09:35 High & Low)
→ Range size must be the 1st 5minute of NY Open
2. Valid Breakout Candle (all 4 must pass):
- Close clearly outside the range
- Body ≥ 0.8 × ATR(5) (example: ATR 3.53 → min body 2.824)
- Body ≥ 60% of total candle (small wicks only – rejection candles = skip)
- Candle closes between 09:30–09:45 NY time
3. Entry
- Long: Break & close above valid candle high
- Short: Break & close below valid candle low
4. Stop Loss
- SL = opposite side of the valid breakout candle (aggressive)
5. HUGE TP Scale-Out (this is the money maker)
- 50% close at 1.5R → move SL to BE
- 30% close at 2.5R → move SL to +0.5R
- 20% let it run with trailing SL (0.8 ATR or previous swing)
- Final targets: previous day liquidity, round numbers or 4R+



### Quick Summary Workflow (memorize this)
1. Draw NY Open Range
2. Check candle: Close outside + Body ≥ 0.8 ATR
3. Enter on breakout or next candle break
4. SL = opposite side of breakout candle
5. TP = 1.5–2× range / ATR / liquidity
6. Only trade FIRST valid candle (ignore all weak or second breakouts)
7. Split TP for maximum profit

### Important Filters
- Avoid trading after 09:45 NY (fakeout risk explodes)
- Only the first valid candle in the session – second attempts are usually traps
- If first candle body < 0.8 ATR or wick >40% → wait for next valid one
- volume must surpass last Candle
- close 1/2(at least half ATR) outside Range


### Results so far (live + backtest)
- Win rate: 61% on filtered setups
- Average RR with scale-out: 2.3R
- Max runner days: 6.8R
- Best on strong momentum days

I trade this every single NY open. No repainting, no fancy indicators – just price, ATR and strict rules.
Questions, live trade screenshots, or want the PDF? Drop comment.
Let’s keep it clean – only serious traders.
Good luck and trade the first valid only!

Read my original thread: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ork-open-range

Note: I evolved with the strategy. This thread and the model described is the simplest yet profitable version.

Thank you for your sharing. I will write an EA based on it, and I hope its backtest results will be satisfactory. God bless you.

xauusd ny orb today

I’ve finished turning the strategy into an EA, but sry backtest results are not very good.

well cant comment on EA without seeing the code...

i'm a good fan of ORB systems.

will start forward testing your rules from next week as long as health allows me to. thanks for sharing this

goodluck..
- loss is part of the process. You must not change rules after loss.

The biggest challenge for gold ny orb trader is to avoid fake breaks.
I follow the simple rule. I check the atr value and compare it with the body side of the breakout candle.
If Body>ATR = Valid
If Body<ATR = Invalid

Fake breaks on gold ORB are brutal, the spread widens right at NY open and you get filled 2-3 pips worse than your entry price. Two things that helped me: (1) wait for the first 5-min candle to close outside the range, not just wick through it, and (2) check ATR(14) on M15 before the session; if it's already extended 70%+ of daily ATR before NY open, the breakout is usually exhausted. Most fake breaks happen when Asia/London already made the move and NY is just mopping up liquidity.

xauusd ny open range breakout today

thank you for your contribution. Please drop charts when possible. Regards

Quite a good one for the opening range breakout. Never seen such results in my backtesting (I used 15 min ORB but not for gold, for Nasdaq with RR 1:1 or 1:2 depending on the current market structure). Maybe indeed it’s a good idea to add ATR to my trading strategy. Btw you can use ATR for setting stop losses. Works better imho than usual above or below swings placement.

nice

Backtest: 09/03/2026 -> 26/03/2026

Interesting results. Are you trading gold only or also indices?

It doesn't work.

Thanks.. how can I reach out to you

Where or how do you determine the values of the ATR and candle body such as 60 or 80 - seem quite higher than the actually ATR readings on the oscillator?
Thanks

ok its a good strategy proven and back tested and since its mostly active during the new york session giving us more votility towards the market and assured trades with low pressure and risk of that will shall lose money coz of itslow risk to reward ratio