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  • #19,301
  • Mar 10, 2026 1:17pm Mar 10, 2026 1:17pm
On daily bear would need 1470 to break the uptrend
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,302
  • Mar 10, 2026 9:28pm Mar 10, 2026 9:28pm
The EUR/USD held above 1.1600 after a drop from the 1.1667 high reached yesterday, showing signs of consolidation. If the resistance holds, liquidity below 1.1600 might drag the pair lower toward 1.1576 and 1.1555/30. On the other hand, bulls will have the chance to reach 1.1707 and 1.1728/47 if 1.1667 is broken.

Daily volatility (range) 54 pips

Significant news - US CPI


Have great day!

1H
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  • #19,303
  • Mar 11, 2026 12:48am Mar 11, 2026 12:48am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EUR/USD held above 1.1600 after a drop from the 1.1667 high reached yesterday, showing signs of consolidation. If the resistance holds, liquidity below 1.1600 might drag the pair lower toward 1.1576 and 1.1555/30. On the other hand, bulls will have the chance to reach 1.1707 and 1.1728/47 if 1.1667 is broken. Daily volatility (range) 54 pips Significant news - US CPI Have great day! 1H {image}
bear looks like they are still in control so may see 1575 or even lower first…..
i would still prefer higher price to reload shorts though…..
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,304
  • Mar 11, 2026 1:29am Mar 11, 2026 1:29am
Quoting johncen
{quote} bear looks like they are still in control so may see 1575 or even lower first….. i would still prefer higher price to reload shorts though…..
I am not sure as long us news are on the calendar if 1.1600 or 1.1575 hold. In case the us cpi overshoot forecasts then the bulls should wait near 1.1500 to reload longs.
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  • #19,305
  • Mar 11, 2026 1:34am Mar 11, 2026 1:34am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} I am not sure as long us news are on the calendar if 1.1600 or 1.1575 hold. In case the us cpi overshoot forecasts then the bulls should wait near 1.1500 to reload longs.
yea best to sideline for now. Pretty unclear
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,306
  • Mar 11, 2026 5:39am Mar 11, 2026 5:39am
No surprise in us cpi meaning ranging price action and not a significant upside break to change the trend either. Price action stays bearish. We might see a small short squeeze towards 1.1645/67 again but not much. The real danger is a break of 1.1577 if not a bounce.
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  • #19,307
  • Mar 11, 2026 6:59am Mar 11, 2026 6:59am
Bulls have swallowed the bait every time price has lifted for the past 2 1/2 Months. More Bloody Bulls. "There you have it." ....lol
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  • #19,308
  • Mar 11, 2026 9:53am Mar 11, 2026 9:53am
The level around 1.16130 is currently key because it represents the upper boundary of the current bearish channel and the zone where short-term momentum is decided.

This level acts as the upper boundary of the downtrend. As long as price remains below it, bears have full control of the market, and any move upward is merely an opportunity for Smart Money to enter better short positions.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H1.jpg Size: 28 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,309
  • Mar 11, 2026 10:06am Mar 11, 2026 10:06am
Quoting josip
The level around 1.16130 is currently key because it represents the upper boundary of the current bearish channel and the zone where short-term momentum is decided. This level acts as the upper boundary of the downtrend. As long as price remains below it, bears have full control of the market, and any move upward is merely an opportunity for Smart Money to enter better short positions. {image}
update

But a falling wedge (green) has also formed… we’ll see whether it confirms and if we return above 1.16.
The level around 1.16130 as currently key is valid
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy.jpg Size: 32 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,310
  • Mar 11, 2026 10:54am Mar 11, 2026 10:54am
Quoting johncen
{quote} bear looks like they are still in control so may see 1575 or even lower first….. i would still prefer higher price to reload shorts though…..
liqudity taken. Not sure if we can start consider longs?
i still keen to have 1743 retested before next leg down
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,311
  • Edited 3:51pm Mar 11, 2026 2:07pm | Edited 3:51pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} liqudity taken. Not sure if we can start consider longs? i still keen to have 1743 retested before next leg down
have got 2 scenarios in mind:
1. continue slides to take down 1470, get a change of characters on D1 before a potential retracement
2. As we have taken liquidity below 1575, we may get a retracement towards 1700 1743 level before next potential leg down to take down 1470 - last liquidity below 1548

as of now no buy though so we will have to wait
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,312
  • Edited 6:54pm Mar 11, 2026 6:43pm | Edited 6:54pm
Quoting josip
{quote} update But a falling wedge (green) has also formed… we’ll see whether it confirms and if we return above 1.16. The level around 1.16130 as currently key is valid {image}
update2
So we did touch the lower line of the falling wedge after all.

1.1530 = H4 BOS DOWN
When it breaks to the downside, it confirms bearish continuation.
It is also the lower boundary of the current consolidation.
On chart, it represents the break of the lower trendline (green).

Probable trajectory after the break
If an H1 candle closes below 1.1530:
1.1500 – first liquidity pool
1.1480 – bottom of the red channel
1.1450 – next H4 demand zone

If 1.1530 is only swept (a fake break) and price quickly returns above 1.1550, it often leads to:
a short squeeze
a rapid move back toward 1.1600 – 1.1640.

Above 1.1575 → the pullback could extend to 1.1640+.
Below 1.1530 → continuation of the downtrend.

BOS DOWN (H1): 1.1560-75
Break of the last swing low in the correction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H1.jpg Size: 33 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,313
  • Mar 11, 2026 6:50pm Mar 11, 2026 6:50pm
1.1575 is an important intraday level if we want to continue higher.

BOS DOWN (H1): 1.1560-75
it is a local H1 swing low / micro S-R flip
it sits in the middle of the descending structure
it is an area where the market often decides whether the move is just a pullback or the start of a reversal

Scenarios
If price stays BELOW 1.1575
the market remains in a bearish intraday structure
high probability of a test of 1.1530
possibly a continuation toward 1.1500

If price moves ABOVE 1.1575
first signal that selling pressure is weakening
possible move toward:
1.1605
1.1646
1.1667
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,314
  • Mar 11, 2026 8:25pm Mar 11, 2026 8:25pm
Quoting josip
{quote} update2 So we did touch the lower line of the falling wedge after all. 1.1530 = H4 BOS DOWN When it breaks to the downside, it confirms bearish continuation. It is also the lower boundary of the current consolidation. On chart, it represents the break of the lower trendline (green). Probable trajectory after the break If an H1 candle closes below 1.1530: 1.1500 – first liquidity pool 1.1480 – bottom of the red channel 1.1450 – next H4 demand zone If 1.1530 is only swept (a fake break)...
yea 1530 seems critical for today.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,315
  • Mar 11, 2026 8:30pm Mar 11, 2026 8:30pm
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  • #19,316
  • Mar 11, 2026 9:39pm Mar 11, 2026 9:39pm
The EUR/USD dropped below the 1.1577 support turned resistance level, reaching 1.1532. It is now looking to target a move to the 1.1500-1.1491 support zone, which might offer a bounce towards 1.1577 or a drop towards the 1.1468/55 support area. On the upside, 1.1613 should be reached if the bulls manage a strong break above resistance.

Daily volatility (range) 59 pips

Significant news - US Initial Jobless Claims & US Trade Balance


Have great day!


1H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,317
  • Mar 11, 2026 9:43pm Mar 11, 2026 9:43pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} have got 2 scenarios in mind: 1. continue slides to take down 1470, get a change of characters on D1 before a potential retracement 2. As we have taken liquidity below 1575, we may get a retracement towards 1700 1743 level before next potential leg down to take down 1470 - last liquidity below 1548 as of now no buy though so we will have to wait
Ive got two places

1.1640 - 1.1655 & 1.1680 - 1.1700 with stop loss at 1.1750 or wait a liquidity grab below 1.1500 first and then buy. Good luck!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,318
  • Edited 9:57pm Mar 11, 2026 9:44pm | Edited 9:57pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Ive got two places 1.1640 - 1.1655 & 1.1680 - 1.1700 with stop loss at 1.1750 or wait a liquidity grab below 1.1500 first and then buy. Good luck!
lets hope we can get there…. given i didnt get to reload shorts
As of now… bear in control
so maybe option 2 is more likely

lets wait for london
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,319
  • Mar 11, 2026 11:20pm Mar 11, 2026 11:20pm
Short term - 15 min.
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  • #19,320
  • Mar 12, 2026 2:47am Mar 12, 2026 2:47am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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