Trading the NFP this friday | Page 10 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

USDJPY spread during NFP news release last Friday 06/09/13 32 replies

What were the reasons for post-NFP currency moves Friday? 2 replies

HI Low EUR CHF on Friday during NFP announcement 0 replies

Good Friday NFP 60 replies

Last Week Friday NFP announcement. 8 replies

Attachments: Trading the NFP this friday
Exit Attachments

Trading the NFP this friday

  • #181
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:24am Dec 8, 2006 11:24am
Quoting SeekingLight
Why is everyone always desperate for reasons?
Just trade people, trade!
Price is on your charts, telling you what it's doing and where it's going, why do you ask for CNBC and newswires to tell you instead of your chart?
Who shows it first?
To me it doesn't matter why, just what =)

*advocates James' Price Action*
I understand what you're saying, but don't you think it's safer if we know the reason to hold our position?

If you know the reason to hold your position, don't you think that you can get more than 20 pips because you believe the price will go down?

Just a thought.
"Even the word impossible says that I M possible"
  • #182
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:25am Dec 8, 2006 11:25am
Quoting FXopportunist
Quoting notouch
Nothing to do with big boys power
I am afraid I completely disagree notouch. This was shear size with a few fleas jumping on board for the ride.
I'm sure you're right that the big boys were in there but there was no conspiracy or anything. The technicals and fundamentals both favoured the dollar but there's always the "idiot rally" (aka exhaustion spike) at the end of a big move.
  • #183
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:33am Dec 8, 2006 11:33am
Quoting notouch
Nothing to do with big boys power it's the end of a massive up move. So many fools wanted to jump way too late into the dollar bear move but the sensible players can see the move has gone too far and will reverse.
I am afraid I don't understand (with all respect to your opinion). All I can see is the bottom is of eur and gbp is holding for a second time as per now.
  • #184
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:33am Dec 8, 2006 11:33am
Meaning 1.94 will do 'til next week?
  • #185
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:35am Dec 8, 2006 11:35am
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
I think the wisest thing to do at the moment, is just as your nickname 'no touch' suggests. I'll just watch wierd market action in action, and wait for more reasonable analysis. No trading till next week anyways!
  • #186
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:37am Dec 8, 2006 11:37am
Cable has already come down 300 pips in a week but I think we'll see new lows before new highs.
  • #187
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:47am Dec 8, 2006 11:47am
Quoting SkYliNe0511
I understand what you're saying, but don't you think it's safer if we know the reason to hold our position?

If you know the reason to hold your position, don't you think that you can get more than 20 pips because you believe the price will go down?

Just a thought.
Hi Sky,
reason I closed my position is that my broker doesn't have a trailing stop feature, I used the smallest stake allowed (else I would have taken 50% off and let it run, stop was already at break even) and I was originally only expecting a small trade due to post-NFP exhaustion.
Expect the unexpected however. My trading aim is once you can move your stop to breakeven and let it go as far as it will go. (on that note: GBPJPY long is up 140 pips and still open, no "reason" there other than me holding out for another bar or two to see where it's going....mid term it might hit 229.70 for a weak wave then 232 after that...IF I got my FE right)

I don't ever trust nor listen to this guy says this, that guy says that anymore, I try to just look to my chart setups. I think it might all have an influence, but I think in the end price will be the one that's right, not the data figures, not the people trying to talk things up or down and not the commentators.
I've been through all that and moved beyond it I would hope.

Oh, and another reason I closed prematurely - I am not out of the newbie mindset just yet, nerves of steel and eternal patience have been ordered, but haven't arrived yet. Damn UPS! Oh well, I'll have to make do with what I got til then
Also I was trading off a 1h timeframe, small stop - small trust =)

Best regards,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #188
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:49am Dec 8, 2006 11:49am
Quoting notouch
Cable has already come down 300 pips in a week but I think we'll see new lows before new highs.
Could be, I don't know the future. For now, though, the move down was broken significantly on an upside during the most important news that were not bad for $ at all... and that makes me say hm... ?!

  • #189
  • Dec 8, 2006 12:04pm Dec 8, 2006 12:04pm
Hi again,

sorry to clog this up, but..
Since I just read this and had to shake my head, I'd like to illustrate what I mean.
USDJPY was rising ever since it made a doji on the 12th, not once making a new low after that. Instead it made higher lows. Now, draw a TL, and voila.
Instead of accepting that, I have to read this:

"The most plausible explanation for what has gone on today is the Japanese newswire story that came out before 10;35 EST about the BOJ not raising rates at its Dec 21 meet, with Japanese banks and traders getting wind of it first since it was in Japanese. The price action looks to support this with USD/JPY being steadily bid up in the preceding 20 minutes before the rest of us got the story around 10.35EST."

Seriously, I'd rather just buy a trendline touch and react upon seeing a valid bar setup.....that sort of rumormill / insiders know the secrets of the Deus Ex Machina etc pp just serves the silly notion that it's not in our hands to trade what's going on, when really it is.
Technicals can and will help you.

Just my personal opinion, chart attached.

Best regards,

SeekingLight
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #190
  • Dec 8, 2006 12:14pm Dec 8, 2006 12:14pm
Merlin, as you know, I was short from 1.9758 from a few days ago on GBPUSD
I still believe the dollar will see some strengthening in the future. I was concerned about the NFP, had heard rumors of 130ish on TTN about an hour before the number, so I placed a buy on GBPUSD to hedge my short. So I road the price all the way back up to 1.9750 and then closed the buy. This was one of the most entertaining NFPs in the last 2 years... had a lot of fun....

Scott
  • #191
  • Dec 8, 2006 12:18pm Dec 8, 2006 12:18pm

I got some intresting posting from fxcm .

[17:25 EUR/USD: Huge Opening Drive Leaves Chicago Long & Wrong] New York,
December 8. In the biggest opening drive in over three months Chicago futures
traders bought over E715mn in the first hour, topped it off with some net
purchases over the following hour, which brought intra-day longs to E900mn-
E1.0bn, and then everything went pear shaped. The unthinkable happened, after
yards and yards of central bank buying, EUR/USD collapsed - buy into strength,
sell into weakness is Chicago"s mantra, and they were long a boat load. Now they
have little choice, sell into weakness, bail out of the intra-day longs no
matter how painful.
Net sales on the way down so far have been roughly E655mn and everyone is trying
to squeeze out of a very narrow window - a Friday afternoon in NY, in December,
illiquid session - and that does not sound like a recipe for success. Now
skeptics amongst us would wonder whether or not the architects of the
Thanksgiving Eve raid on the dollar had espied probably their last really
vulnerable market before year end, where they could get decent sized positions
out, as year-end squaring is not yet upon us, and the markets vulnerable after
the post data clear out that stopped bulls and bears out on both sides of the
spectrum. Word had it than a US investment bank sold 500mn EUR for a fund
immediately after the US payroll numbers, and it kept heading north, now if they
had added to that on the way up it would have left the market long with no one
to sell to - funny that isn"t it. [email protected]

Be prepared for the unexpected , all i have to add.

  • #192
  • Dec 8, 2006 12:30pm Dec 8, 2006 12:30pm
For every future contract bought there's a contract sold. I can't see what this guy is getting at.
  • #193
  • Dec 8, 2006 12:42pm Dec 8, 2006 12:42pm
Quoting notouch
For every future contract bought there's a contract sold. I can't see what this guy is getting at.
What are you saying no touch?
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #194
  • Dec 8, 2006 12:46pm Dec 8, 2006 12:46pm
Quoting jimo
Moe are you sure GBPUSD will touch 2.000
no, how can i be 100% sure.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #195
  • Dec 8, 2006 12:47pm Dec 8, 2006 12:47pm
The guy is talking about lots of long contracts being bought as if this is something significant but in truth the number of shorts was equal (as always with futures) so what's his point?
  • #196
  • Dec 8, 2006 12:49pm Dec 8, 2006 12:49pm
Quoting Moe
no, how can i be 100% sure.

This is why I don't say what I am thinking about market targets. I don't like all of this type stuff that goes with it.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #197
  • Dec 8, 2006 12:51pm Dec 8, 2006 12:51pm
Quoting notouch
The guy is talking about lots of long contracts being bought as if this is something significant but in truth the number of shorts was equal (as always with futures) so what's his point?
There is always a buyer and seller in any market. I am still not sure what you are saying. It is the price that the trades take place at that moves the market.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #198
  • Dec 8, 2006 12:53pm Dec 8, 2006 12:53pm
I know that FXopportunist I'm just wondering what that Thompson.com guy's point was.
  • #199
  • Dec 8, 2006 12:55pm Dec 8, 2006 12:55pm
Quoting notouch
I know that FXopportunist I'm just wondering what that Thompson.com guy's point was.
He is just illustrating the panic in the market of some larger players and what they went through today. He may have also intended that microcosm to be a view of the greater market activity today.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #200
  • Dec 8, 2006 12:57pm Dec 8, 2006 12:57pm
He was implying that more longs that shorts had been bought.
0 traders viewing now