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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #16,061
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:52am Aug 27, 2007 10:52am
Quoting Piters
Statistically There is only ways, LONG or SHORT.

You have only 50-50% chances to Win or to lose.

NOW, if you WIN with 80-100pips, and loose only 40pips (Money Management),

Even in the worst case you are winner. You will need 70% to lose and only 30% to win to be a Rally LOOSER. DO some MATH, make a plan..


Cheers


Or go to Vegas and bet it all on red or black same 50% chances:
  • #16,062
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:53am Aug 27, 2007 10:53am
Quoting ovidiu
This is my take on things to come.
http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/1813/short1te2.gif

http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/1923/short2do8.gif

The price has clearly more resistance above than support below
With a major weekly trend that I see to be the hardest one to break but also down we have a 4H trend line and some levels of support I expect more ranging in the blue area, before 1H QQE cross down and confirmed that I think will coincide with the breaking of the 30min 233.34. My first target for TP would be 231.80 38.2 weekly fib with an entry around 233.
If no cross down for 1H QQE it can also go up very hard to decide for the moment, I'll just watch and see what happens.
Edit: 100 SMA on H4 and weekly trend line major resistances.
I think you mean the 4H QQE. The 1H QQE crossed down a while ago.

M2B
  • #16,063
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:55am Aug 27, 2007 10:55am
Quoting my2buoys
I think you mean the 4H QQE. The 1H QQE crossed down a while ago.

M2B
Nope 1h QQE cross down 50 line, on my platform still didn't cross.., and also I will wait for the confirmation candle, but for the moment I think some more ranging...
  • #16,064
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:55am Aug 27, 2007 10:55am
Quoting Piters
Statistically There is only ways, LONG or SHORT.

You have only 50-50% chances to Win or to lose.

NOW, if you WIN with 80-100pips, and loose only 40pips (Money Management),

Even in the worst case you are winner. You will need 70% to lose and only 30% to win to be a Rally LOOSER. DO some MATH, make a plan..


Cheers


Yes, I use money management, and I don't actually get 100% of them wrong, I was just exaggerating, since it feels that way.. The problem is that I do seem to lose a good 90% of the time, so the money management isn't working out very well. I think it's just difficult to figure out the correct amount of SL and TP to use depnding on what type of day it is for the market. I seem to figure that part out too late or just don't want to see the signs when they should be apparent.

Thanks for your input!
  • #16,065
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:55am Aug 27, 2007 10:55am
Quoting ovidiu
Or go to Vegas and bet it all on red or black same 50% chances:

But not with the same Return...
  • #16,066
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:55am Aug 27, 2007 10:55am
might not be a good idea anytime soon. if you look at the daily chart there is a reverse divergence pattern.
since majors fibo retracements have been reached (0.5 from 251.08 and 0.618 from 244.04) i expect AT LEAST a ranging period if not another nice drop.

Quoting karmostaji
I am indeed waiting for a good re-entry point and load some new LONG rockets, if you want to make sure that longs are back in business 100%, wait for a close above 234.40
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #16,067
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:58am Aug 27, 2007 10:58am
Quoting mktjong
I think US economy is fundamentally strong and would remain that in the next few years .. hope so.
Currently, only the Subprime mortagage issues shatter a bit. Once this is over we would see the Dow fly again along with this pair.
When you need a trillion dollars/year of inflow into your country just to support government spending and the trade deficit, you are not fundamentally strong. You are one shock away from currency collapse.

No country in history has ever been able to operate such a distorted currency. We have only been able to because the dollar is the global commodity currency. Because of the governments 35 year mishandling of our economy/currency, this advantage is about to disappear. When it does, watch out.
  • #16,068
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:01am Aug 27, 2007 11:01am
233.15 will be tested
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #16,069
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:03am Aug 27, 2007 11:03am
Quoting markam
When you need a trillion dollars/year of inflow into your country just to support government spending and the trade deficit, you are not fundamentally strong. You are one shock away from currency collapse.

No country in history has ever been able to operate such a distorted currency. We have only been able to because the dollar is the global commodity currency. Because of the governments 35 year mishandling of our economy/currency, this advantage is about to disappear. When it does, watch out.

Long Term -> YES, everybody agreed

Short Term -> I am saying, Let grab some better positions, When Dollar goes DOWN, other Currencies goes UP, that's BEAUTY of FOREX.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #16,070
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:05am Aug 27, 2007 11:05am
Quoting Piters
Long Term -> YES, everybody agreed

Short Term -> I am saying, Let grab some better positions, When Dollar goes DOWN, other Currencies goes UP, that's BEAUTY of FOREX.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
that is why I started in the forex market. I figure if my government is going to destroy my currency, I want to profit from it.
  • #16,071
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:07am Aug 27, 2007 11:07am
Quoting markam
that is why I started in the forex market. I figure if my government is going to destroy my currency, I want to profit from it.
I hope you have your account in other currency than USD then
  • #16,072
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:08am Aug 27, 2007 11:08am
expecting 13268 at dow sometime tomorrow...
so sticking with my short for a while
give me my pips back...
  • #16,073
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:08am Aug 27, 2007 11:08am
I don't know if I should laugh or cry.

Americans are the most optimistic people of the world I think, that's a good thing but also a bad thing if you can't see reality anymore.
Someday even they will have to face reality... hope so anyway.


Quoting mktjong
I think US economy is fundamentally strong and would remain that in the next few years .. hope so.
Currently, only the Subprime mortagage issues shatter a bit. Once this is over we would see the Dow fly again along with this pair.
  • #16,074
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:08am Aug 27, 2007 11:08am
Can you believe it? The 1H candle closed right on the bullish trend line. A good close beneath would have given the bears some much needed momentum. Now we'll have to wait and see what the 4H QQE produces over the next 4 hours.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 1h.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #16,075
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:09am Aug 27, 2007 11:09am
i would go lower with tp. but it's easier and wiser to follow the trend than making predictions.

Quoting ovidiu
The price has clearly more resistance above than support below
With a major weekly trend that I see to be the hardest one to break but also down we have a 4H trend line and some levels of support I expect more ranging in the blue area, before 1H QQE cross down and confirmed that I think will coincide with the breaking of the 30min 233.34. My first target for TP would be 231.80 38.2 weekly fib with an entry around 233.
If no cross down for 1H QQE it can also go up very hard to decide for the moment, I'll just watch and see what happens.
Edit: 100 SMA on H4 and weekly trend line major resistances.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #16,076
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:10am Aug 27, 2007 11:10am
Quoting auslanco
Wow.. Interesting so, in 2000 september the exchange rate was around 160. According to you, Nobody in UK bought Japaneese cars in 2001/2002.. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

hi,

2000 was completly diffrent. Now China and India comes more and more into the game. China sell first cars and tractors to europe. India will start soon.
so Japanese exporters would die with a strong yen.
just because this, i think "carry trades won´t die fast.

regards
molguge
  • #16,077
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:10am Aug 27, 2007 11:10am
Quoting Zoran
We are at the bottom of a support trendline. This is not a good place to short. In fact, it's a better place to long with stops just below it.

The time to short is when this line breaks. What you should notice is a fairly large fall through it and then it will generally (not always but more times than not) return to the line. The line that was previous support should now turn into resistance. So when price bounces off the line (or just below it), that is the ideal time to short! But wait for the break - that is confirmation.

Hopefully a good lesson for some people.

Z
This is what I was talking about above. Purple circle shows how price returned after the breakout although this was only on the 5min chart. I would expect something a little larger on the 4hr but this is a good start. First part of the trend breakout confirmed (but not conclusive).

Z

Back later.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GUPPY5MIN.JPG Size: 88 KB
  • #16,078
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:10am Aug 27, 2007 11:10am
We will have a short strategy trade for 200-300 pips coming up soon
Price will test the 4hr Gann 233.15 within this 4hr (VT). The following 4hr bar will be formed below the Gann/TFT line. We can take short positions around 4-6 EST. This will be a good trade guys. This rally even could go down to August lows .
  • #16,079
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:11am Aug 27, 2007 11:11am
Quoting markam
that is why I started in the forex market. I figure if my government is going to destroy my currency, I want to profit from it.

You are 1000% right. US$ is world commodity. It is Measurement (talon) for everything in the world (banks, Loans, investments etc.). When something bad happen in US, all world shakes.



So let's Play our FOREX Game, and see what Happen



Cheers
  • #16,080
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:12am Aug 27, 2007 11:12am
Quoting auslanco
We will have a short strategy trade for 200-300 pips coming up soon
Price will test the 4hr Gann 233.15 within this 4hr (VT). The following 4hr bar will be formed below the Gann/TFT line. We can take short positions around 4-6 EST. This will be a good trade guys. This rally even could go down to August lows .

hope so man... i hope so.
a 200-300 pip downward movement would be a delight
a turkish delight.
give me my pips back...
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