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Why Smart Traders Watch the First Hour (Initial Balance Guide)

  • #341
  • Mar 9, 2026 3:52am Mar 9, 2026 3:52am
What values did u use for spread/commission?
  • #342
  • Mar 9, 2026 7:24am Mar 9, 2026 7:24am
Hey guys to answer and reply to y'all's questions and comments about the Python stuff I've been posting.

Remember I am no coder or programmer, I'm doing all this using Claude.

@amvt: "Assuming it was vanilla Monte-Carlo and you were not utilizing GPU, this would've taken you a lot of time."
I've started using the remote desktop from my job for everything I do so I won't slow down my actual GPU while I do other work. I honestly don't know what the capacity is for remote desktops, but I will say that the Montecarlo part of all this did take a little longer than the rest of the stuff I did.

I guess this week's tasks will be walk-forward permutation test and looking into Timothy Masters. Also, yeah I KINDA know how MQL works but not enough to start something from scratch but when it comes to Python I have NO IDEA what any of the code means so I should probably start learning it from scratch more.

@W0lfram thank you for sharing the file! I'll download today and look through it. I don't think my CSV file is exotic so it probably should work. I mean it's the candle data that you can export from MetaTrader which is super simple like "Date, Time, Open, High, Close, Low, Volume" and that's about it.

@Danger-Mouse honestly I didnt use spread and commission. I'm not really like telling the AI/Python code to start with a certain amount of money and I'm not giving it like lot sizes, position risk or anything like that. It's just basically adding up pips instead of money. Should spread and commission still be factored in even if it's not measuring dollars?
  • #343
  • Mar 9, 2026 7:38am Mar 9, 2026 7:38am
Quoting eadweardcap
Hey guys to answer and reply to y'all's questions and comments about the Python stuff I've been posting. Remember I am no coder or programmer, I'm doing all this using Claude. @amvt: "Assuming it was vanilla Monte-Carlo and you were not utilizing GPU, this would've taken you a lot of time." I've started using the remote desktop from my job for everything I do so I won't slow down my actual GPU while I do other work. I honestly don't know what the capacity is for remote desktops, but I will say that the Montecarlo part of all this did take a little...
Ah, costs should definitely be added in I'd say. It can make a HUGE difference to the profitability, especially in a system that has a large amount of trades with a very small average pip win size. you can ask Claude to factor spread in and ask it to add the roundtrip cost (in term of pips too if u want to keep money out of it)

Oh..and back to the stupid daylight saving nonsense. I forgot, but my platform is usually UK+2 hrs (which is EST+7..which gives a midnight close for NY and avoids a Sunday bar). Well, now it adjusts to UK+3 ( because of DST in US). Which actually means the data remains exact for US indices (as they will still open at 16.30 on my chart) but the time on my UK, EURO indices charts are now an hour ahead
  • #344
  • Mar 9, 2026 7:52am Mar 9, 2026 7:52am
Quoting eadweardcap
Hey guys to answer and reply to y'all's questions and comments about the Python stuff I've been posting. Remember I am no coder or programmer, I'm doing all this using Claude. @amvt: "Assuming it was vanilla Monte-Carlo and you were not utilizing GPU, this would've taken you a lot of time." I've started using the remote desktop from my job for everything I do so I won't slow down my actual GPU while I do other work. I honestly don't know what the capacity is for remote desktops, but I will say that the Montecarlo part of all this did take a little...
When I use MT5 interface to get data it exports a nightmare like this
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- or some formats split date and time into 2 csv columns
should work as long as timestamp is a single string e.g. "yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm", etc

Time zones are probably the most hated thing among coders lol. Wrote it for personal use but hope it'll work with your data as well
Air force
  • #345
  • Mar 9, 2026 8:37am Mar 9, 2026 8:37am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} When I use MT5 interface to get data it exports a nightmare like this {image} - or some formats split date and time into 2 csv columns should work as long as timestamp is a single string e.g. "yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm", etc Time zones are probably the most hated thing among coders lol. Wrote it for personal use but hope it'll work with your data as well
Yes! That's exactly the one!
  • #346
  • Mar 9, 2026 8:55am Mar 9, 2026 8:55am
  •  amvt
  • Joined Feb 2025 | Status: Developer by Choice Trader by Heart | 202 Posts
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Did AI write your post? (obviously) {quote} Eh? Takes milliseconds. Probably plot rendering took longer
I don't know if I should be taking the AI tag as a compliment or otherwise. But no, I do not use AI to write my posts.

On the other note: Monte Carlo simulations can be optimized but not enough to take milliseconds across 10k sims. It's one of the most time-consuming tasks when it comes it Quantitative Finance and you saying this tells me you have never done this (or maybe you have). And it's not necessarily a bad thing. But there's a correct way of doing things and than there's an "AI" way of doing things. Pointing to the observations I noted before, I am almost certain that something went wrong with the results.

If you're interested, I have an open source project called MMAR vs GARCH in which it uses Monte Carlo sims. Taking a look at that code and running it will give you an idea on how long it usually takes: https://github.com/AyanDot/MMAR-vs-GARCH
— Developed by MMQ
  • #347
  • Mar 9, 2026 9:27am Mar 9, 2026 9:27am
Quoting amvt
{quote} I don't know if I should be taking the AI tag as a compliment or otherwise. But no, I do not use AI to write my posts. On the other note: Monte Carlo simulations can be optimized but not enough to take milliseconds across 10k sims. It's one of the most time-consuming tasks when it comes it Quantitative Finance and you saying this tells me you have never done this (or maybe you have). And it's not necessarily a bad thing. But there's a correct way of doing things and than there's an "AI" way of doing things. Pointing to the observations I...
Of course you're an English-perfect Pakistani who writes in formal language
But I asked bc sometimes AI doesn't know what it's blabbering about

Quote
"AI" way of doing things
yeah, git repo shows it
Air force
  • #348
  • Mar 9, 2026 9:34am Mar 9, 2026 9:34am
  •  amvt
  • Joined Feb 2025 | Status: Developer by Choice Trader by Heart | 202 Posts
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Of course you're an English-perfect Pakistani who writes in formal language But I asked bc sometimes AI doesn't know what it's blabbering about {quote} yeah, git repo shows it
Don't know what I've done for you to be racially profiling me, but I won't mess up the mood of this wonderful thread for one toxic person.
— Developed by MMQ
  • #349
  • Edited 9:54am Mar 9, 2026 9:41am | Edited 9:54am
Quoting amvt
{quote} I don't know if I should be taking the AI tag as a compliment or otherwise. But no, I do not use AI to write my posts. On the other note: Monte Carlo simulations can be optimized but not enough to take milliseconds across 10k sims. It's one of the most time-consuming tasks when it comes it Quantitative Finance and you saying this tells me you have never done this (or maybe you have). And it's not necessarily a bad thing. But there's a correct way of doing things and than there's an "AI" way of doing things. Pointing to the observations I...
In this task you basically have {10000 x 668} matrix
I was wrong, sorry, it takes 4 microseconds, not milliseconds. Plot rendering ~4-5 sec

You can doubt backtest results, bc it simulates perfect execution in vacuum, but passage about time complexity of MC in this case is an utter nonsense. sorry
Air force
  • #350
  • Mar 9, 2026 10:05am Mar 9, 2026 10:05am
Quoting eadweardcap
Ok, so building a strategy around the statistics from the previous post (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15603811) I ran a montecarlo simulation and did the statistical significance that @amvt mentioned. Here's the results: Montecarlo: Running 10,000 simulations of 668 trades each... Simulations complete. ========== MONTE CARLO RESULTS ========== Simulations run : 10,000 Trades per simulation : 668 --- FINAL PnL DISTRIBUTION --- Actual historical PnL : 1391.09 pts Average final PnL : 1394.94 pts Median final PnL...
Wow, you finally went in a totally wrong way on how to build a workable profitable technique. But you did gather like minded people(ha ha).

I tried to help, pointing you to what is important, but to no avail. Sad Story, but of course wish You GL.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15603884
  • #351
  • Mar 9, 2026 10:16am Mar 9, 2026 10:16am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Wow, you finally went in a totally wrong way on how to build a workable profitable technique. But you did gather like minded people(ha ha). I tried to help, pointing you to what is important, but to no avail. Sad Story, but of course wish You GL. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15603884
cool
  • #352
  • Mar 9, 2026 10:29am Mar 9, 2026 10:29am
Today's trades. Two losses, Two wins. Small loss for the day. No trades on the Dow Jones, EA didn't trigger. There's something I gotta get fixed on that. In the mean time I'll continue with the Python and statistics work.
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  • #353
  • Mar 9, 2026 1:23pm Mar 9, 2026 1:23pm
Quoting amvt
{quote} [...] I have an open source project called MMAR vs GARCH in which it uses Monte Carlo sims. Taking a look at that code and running it will give you an idea on how long it usually takes: https://github.com/AyanDot/MMAR-vs-GARCH
One more "toxic" comment:
that AI code is pure ****
first of all, random seed from config never referenced. You should set it in step 7 before calling everything... there is a seed in step1 for synth data but it's hardcoded.
Don't you need it step7? I think you do. But that's just a small fuckup by ai

step7 uses inefficient sequential loop on a single thread, each iter calls other loops from prev steps, right? Probably as much effective.
MC can easily be execute in parallel, obviously

Free express review. Your welcome
My point was: don't argue w/ people using AI when you have no competence
Air force
  • #354
  • Mar 10, 2026 9:34am Mar 10, 2026 9:34am
Morning all! No trades today, with the volatility in the markets recently I'll just sit on cash (wont trade) and work on making this trading system much better. A new update, I was able to get a version of the EA with session sizes. The session sizes depend on the times that I indicate in the EA.
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  • #355
  • Mar 10, 2026 1:00pm Mar 10, 2026 1:00pm
Ok, so from Python I've moved momentarily to MT5 and just testing out a few things. The graph below is just for humor 'cause...what the hell?! hahaha
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  • #356
  • Mar 10, 2026 6:30pm Mar 10, 2026 6:30pm
  •  amvt
  • Joined Feb 2025 | Status: Developer by Choice Trader by Heart | 202 Posts
Quoting eadweardcap
Morning all! No trades today, with the volatility in the markets recently I'll just sit on cash (wont trade) and work on making this trading system much better. A new update, I was able to get a version of the EA with session sizes. The session sizes depend on the times that I indicate in the EA. {image}
Is this your own creation or is it an open source algorithm you are improving upon? Would be interested to know either way
— Developed by MMQ
  • #357
  • Mar 11, 2026 9:04am Mar 11, 2026 9:04am
Today's trades! Faked out on S&P500 and Nasdaq. I saw the market turning and turned my positions as well. Managed to make a little over break even. All done today. Nothing on the Dow Jones
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  • #358
  • Mar 11, 2026 2:38pm Mar 11, 2026 2:38pm
  •  amvt
  • Joined Feb 2025 | Status: Developer by Choice Trader by Heart | 202 Posts
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} One more "toxic" comment: that AI code is pure **** first of all, random seed from config never referenced. You should set it in step 7 before calling everything... there is a seed in step1 for synth data but it's hardcoded. Don't you need it step7? I think you do. But that's just a small fuckup by ai step7 uses inefficient sequential loop on a single thread, each iter calls other loops from prev steps, right? Probably as much effective. MC can easily be execute in parallel, obviously Free express review. Your welcome My point was: don't...
I tried to ignore your messages but I can't help but say something.

First of all, you coming from Germany with you know what kind of history, have a lot of balls to be racially profiling. Saying that I can't speak formal english is honestly such an ignorant take. Being literate has nothing to do with your race, caste, nationality and sexuality. Being from a developed country but with a backward mindset like you have, I can't help but feel sorry for you at this point

Finally, I have never disrespected anybody on FF nor anywhere else. It's not my upbringing maybe yours was. For eadweardcap, all of my comments were suppose to help him guide this rough and not as much discussed terrain of Quantitative Finance. Someone who has taken Stanford courses on ML, I feel obligated to help such people. I can see why you saw it as arguing..

I have nothing against AI. I was never opposed to it from the beginning. The bug you identified in my code, is genuinely helpful and a fuckup on my part. But what you would notice is that the last commit on that repo was done months ago. I have not used it since the last commit. And I am extremely sorry that you caught a bug, whereas I created a whole project that was more sophisticated than whatever you have done with your life.

Hence, saying that I don't have any competence is just your hatred and negativity speaking, and I can understand that because a racist can't help it. You took the time to go through my repo to find a bug, report back to me. Look at how much energy and effort you went through to hate. Honestly, it's bloodline at this point. And yes the readme was created by AI on my repo. I use it everyday. But in your eyes I was somehow opposed to it?

And to be clear, I actually never wanted to reply back. As I can expect that this will turn into a rant on a forum I have respect for. But his comments were so offensive that if I hadn't spoke on it, it wouldn't feel right in my conscience
— Developed by MMQ
  • #359
  • Edited 4:06pm Mar 11, 2026 3:11pm | Edited 4:06pm
Quoting amvt
{quote} First of all, you coming from Germany with you know what kind of history, have a lot of balls to be racially profiling. Saying that I can't speak formal english is honestly such an ignorant take. Being literate has nothing to do with your race, caste, nationality and sexuality. Being from a developed country but with a backward mindset like you have, I can't help but feel sorry for you at this point Finally, I have never disrespected anybody on FF nor anywhere else. It's not my upbringing maybe yours was. For eadweardcap, all of my comments...
Quote
First of all, you coming from Germany with you know what kind of history, have a lot of balls to be racially profiling. Saying that I can't speak formal english is honestly such an ignorant take. Being literate has nothing to do with your race, caste, nationality and sexuality.
That's for sure. I'm just seein some ai writing patterns. Everyone can use google translate, after all; maybe I should use it sometimes as well
Honestly, you're over-engineering the wrong part of this
Quote
I can't help but feel sorry for you at this point
Thank you You are good at playing moral supremacy lol
Quote
Someone who has taken Stanford courses on ML
Do you know Andrew Ng?
How comes then you can't tell the difference between parametric sweeps and bootstrap MC?

Quote
And yes the readme was created by AI on my repo
Mate, don;t pretend..
Whole repo is AI, not just readme, no one writes code like that - I'm 100% sure you haven't wrote a single line there.
This is a great piece technology, still in its cradle tho, not a brain replacement..At least give it a credit doing all job for you
Read my signature to understand the attitude

Quote
And I am extremely sorry that you caught a bug, whereas I created a whole project that was more sophisticated than whatever you have done with your life..
That's a bit of an ego here. How can you be sure? You know my career? it's at least x3.5 longer than your 4y ai prompting experience, but we're not on contest
Air force
  • #360
  • Mar 11, 2026 4:17pm Mar 11, 2026 4:17pm
  •  amvt
  • Joined Feb 2025 | Status: Developer by Choice Trader by Heart | 202 Posts
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} {quote} That's for sure. I'm just seein some ai writing patterns. Everyone can use google translate, after all; maybe I should use it sometimes as well Honestly, you're over-engineering the wrong part of this {quote} Thank you You are good at playing moral supremacy lol {quote} Do you know Andrew Ng? How comes then you can't tell the difference between parametric sweeps and bootstrap MC? {quote} Mate, don;t pretend.. Whole repo is AI, not just readme, no one writes code like that - I'm 100% sure you haven't wrote a single line there....
Sure big man you can feel good about yourself by disrespecting others I mean isn't that your heritage? Sorry my bad.

Quote
That's a bit of an ego here. How can you be sure? You know my career? it's at least x3.5 longer than your 4y ai prompting experience, but we're not on contest

haha, you. talking about ego. That's pretty ironic for a privileged man. And to be fair, you are right, there can't even be a contest when you think permutation tests take milliseconds. Oh no you corrected that to 4 microseconds. My bad G, you got more infrastructure than OpenAI
— Developed by MMQ
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