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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #16,041
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:18am Aug 27, 2007 10:18am
Quoting karmostaji
I'm watching the retracement levels (support), let's see which one holds..

233.70
233.15
232.60
233.15 is closer to the daily pivot...
  • #16,042
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:20am Aug 27, 2007 10:20am
Quoting karmostaji
I'm watching the retracement levels (support), let's see which one holds..

233.70
233.15
232.60
One person that thinks like me . Greets
  • #16,043
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:22am Aug 27, 2007 10:22am
Quoting LuckyLooser
One person that thinks like me . Greets
I'm the bull man and I think we will see 251+ in a couple of weeks/months

I'm loving the weather here in Munich
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #16,044
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:23am Aug 27, 2007 10:23am
232.40 next target
  • #16,045
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:25am Aug 27, 2007 10:25am
beast just awoke?
  • #16,046
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:29am Aug 27, 2007 10:29am
I have a tried and true scalping method that will make each of you many pips.

Let me place a trade and you can go opposite for 25-30 pips. Works 100% of the time.

Spent1
  • #16,047
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:30am Aug 27, 2007 10:30am
Quoting Spent1
I have a tried and true scalping method that will make each of you many pips.

Let me place a trade and you can go opposite for 25-30 pips. Works 100% of the time.

Spent1
lol.. good system..
but nothing works 100% of the time. And this is true 100% of the times.
  • #16,048
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:34am Aug 27, 2007 10:34am
Quoting karmostaji
It's a bit late but I couldn't say it earlier..

1st TP @ 235.20 REACHED

Congrats man! And I was right there with you. That is why, with this ... retracement? ... I was wondering if you might be considering re-entering the position just closed, and shooting for that 235.20 level again. But I gather, not knowing how far this ... retracement? ... might decide to go, you are looking to see if 233.15 holds on the 1 hour (at least). With the banking holiday there isn't much momentum one way or the other. Likely Aus has it right... just go get some sleep for a few hours. But I'll be leaving for work soon and so I'm eager for the market to give me a clue before I go. It often doesn't like to cooperate.

As for you bears out there, the average American doesn't know that much about economics. When they think locally, they only care if they have a job and how secure they are with that. When they think globally, they only know what the last expert on TV told them. By the time all the experts agree things tend to have run pretty far one way or the other. This mortgage crisis is interesting because there are some significant implications in longer timeframes. But in the short term Americans are not going to understand it beyond whatever the hype in the news is. So, the impact to the average American might be big in the long term, but statistically, if it shows in a confidence number, it is very likely to reverse in the short term too, as local media outlets get tired of hyping it. Economics is boring unless hundreds of thousands are really suffering. The news will certainly find other, more interesting things to report in a week or two. Doesn't mean the mortgage thing isn't important, or won't have an impact, but within the next couple months this is going to go back and forth a few times. American's won't stay focused on a single economic event for that long.

My 2 cents.
  • #16,049
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:37am Aug 27, 2007 10:37am
Quoting Spent1
I have a tried and true scalping method that will make each of you many pips.

Let me place a trade and you can go opposite for 25-30 pips. Works 100% of the time.

Spent1
Haha, you could even use my trades as a confirmation signal!! I mean seriously, I just can't figure out how I can be wrong every time no matter what indicators, trendlines, etc that I use. I guess it must just be lack of experience
  • #16,050
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:39am Aug 27, 2007 10:39am
Quoting Spent1
I have a tried and true scalping method that will make each of you many pips.

Let me place a trade and you can go opposite for 25-30 pips. Works 100% of the time.

Spent1
ive got copywrites on that method
  • #16,051
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:40am Aug 27, 2007 10:40am
Quoting Qman
Congrats man! And I was right there with you. That is why, with this ... retracement? ... I was wondering if you might be considering re-entering the position just closed, and shooting for that 235.20 level again. But I gather, not knowing how far this ... retracement? ... might decide to go, you are looking to see if 233.15 holds on the 1 hour (at least). With the banking holiday there isn't much momentum one way or the other. Likely Aus has it right... just go get some sleep for a few hours. But I'll be leaving for work soon and so I'm eager for the market to give me a clue before I go. It often doesn't like to cooperate.

My 2 cents.
I am indeed waiting for a good re-entry point and load some new LONG rockets, if you want to make sure that longs are back in business 100%, wait for a close above 234.40
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #16,052
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:40am Aug 27, 2007 10:40am
Something to think about:

If a trader is wrong 100% of the time, and if it gets worse, will the trader start making money?


Frank


Quoting tywe
Haha, you could even use my trades as a confirmation signal!! I mean seriously, I just can't figure out how I can be wrong every time no matter what indicators, trendlines, etc that I use. I guess it must just be lack of experience
  • #16,053
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:41am Aug 27, 2007 10:41am
Quoting markam
I am confident that the US economy is doomed.
I think US economy is fundamentally strong and would remain that in the next few years .. hope so.
Currently, only the Subprime mortagage issues shatter a bit. Once this is over we would see the Dow fly again along with this pair.
  • #16,054
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:42am Aug 27, 2007 10:42am
I agree. Most of my friends don't even know what sub-prime means, let alone its implications. As long as they've got their job, Miller Lite, and college football or Nascar on this weekend, they don't really care what is going on in the world. To a certain extent, I think that is what makes the American economy resilient. Ignorance is bliss. This is just a generalization of course, but I see it a lot.


Quoting Qman
Congrats man! And I was right there with you. That is why, with this ... retracement? ... I was wondering if you might be considering re-entering the position just closed, and shooting for that 235.20 level again. But I gather, not knowing how far this ... retracement? ... might decide to go, you are looking to see if 233.15 holds on the 1 hour (at least). With the banking holiday there isn't much momentum one way or the other. Likely Aus has it right... just go get some sleep for a few hours. But I'll be leaving for work soon and so I'm eager for the market to give me a clue before I go. It often doesn't like to cooperate.

As for you bears out there, the average American doesn't know that much about economics. When they think locally, they only care if they have a job and how secure they are with that. When they think globally, they only know what the last expert on TV told them. By the time all the experts agree things tend to have run pretty far one way or the other. This mortgage crisis is interesting because there are some significant implications in longer timeframes. But in the short term Americans are not going to understand it beyond whatever the hype in the news is. So, the impact to the average American might be big in the long term, but statistically, if it shows in a confidence number, it is very likely to reverse in the short term too, as local media outlets get tired of hyping it. Economics is boring unless hundreds of thousands are really suffering. The news will certainly find other, more interesting things to report in a week or two. Doesn't mean the mortgage thing isn't important, or won't have an impact, but within the next couple months this is going to go back and forth a few times. American's won't stay focused on a single economic event for that long.

My 2 cents.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #16,055
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:42am Aug 27, 2007 10:42am
Quoting markam
I expect a decline in the stock market for the rest of the day. This was a bad housing number for the bulls. I am 100% confident the feds will not cut rates at their next meeting, because that have enough plausibly good news to justify it.

Of course the news isn't really good, so the economy is continuing its downturn. So the stock market is probably going to continue to slide until the next fed meeting. Then it will really drop.
I totally agree. Fed will not cut rate Jpy will not raise rate They have no reason to do so. It would be a disaster in the long run. This subprime stuff has to work itself out, it is a global deal.
A Fed rate cut would send the Eur to 145 and the GBP to 210-215 in a heartbeat (they may get there anyway) not to mention CAD AUS and NZD.

The Fed cut the bank rate to give the illusion that all is ok and then got together with bankers and made a deal to let them borrow money and everybody is happy for the moment.

The amount of money from China Jpy Gbp Eur India and others that are tied to these subprime mortgages is more than we could dream and they are and will continue sort through this but in the meantime.......

The banks are also going to have to loosen up their lending or it will kill them in the end. Not loosen to the point that got them into this mess but they cannot tighten anymore and will have to give in so to speak.

The fed is still concerned with inflation and cannot lose sight of it(they better not). Bernanke is not a dummy and will toe the line until all is ok again.

All countries go thru cycles. It's our turn now.

Although I'm a technical trader but fundamentals as strong as what we have now cannot be ignored on a daily basis. I go with the flow. That being said..

GBPJPY is going to piss around and bounce but I believe ultimately it will see the 205-196 area before the "carry trade" is officially "back on". I base that on techs long term. I see 230 area with a bounce to 237-238 and then down from there. Not straight down of course but 237-238 may not be seen again until the ultimate run back up.

All based on Ma's and Fibs you know. 205-196 is a nice confirmation of a wave 4 down to the 38.2 of a bottom put in Apr95 from here we shall see 308.

Sounds crazy to some of you I know but this is my story and I'm sticking to it.

There is plenty of money to made in the meantime with these swings.

On a side note I can not possibly read all posts in this forum I only get to check in every couple of days so if I have repeated what has already been said or pissed anybody off you can IM me cause I surely will not see it here.

GLTA

Hook
  • #16,056
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:43am Aug 27, 2007 10:43am
Quoting karmostaji
I am indeed waiting for a good re-entry point and load some new LONG rockets, if you want to make sure that longs are back in business 100%, wait for a close above 234.40

Thanks for the tip Karmo.
  • #16,057
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:46am Aug 27, 2007 10:46am
UJ EJ GU keep hitting their support and bouncing off it.
If only they could break it , we"ll see a nice fall , they'll bring down GJ with them
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #16,058
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:47am Aug 27, 2007 10:47am
Quoting Qman
Congrats man! And I was right there with you. That is why, with this ... retracement? ... I was wondering if you might be considering re-entering the position just closed, and shooting for that 235.20 level again. But I gather, not knowing how far this ... retracement? ... might decide to go, you are looking to see if 233.15 holds on the 1 hour (at least). With the banking holiday there isn't much momentum one way or the other. Likely Aus has it right... just go get some sleep for a few hours. But I'll be leaving for work soon and so I'm eager for the market to give me a clue before I go. It often doesn't like to cooperate.

As for you bears out there, the average American doesn't know that much about economics. When they think locally, they only care if they have a job and how secure they are with that. When they think globally, they only know what the last expert on TV told them. By the time all the experts agree things tend to have run pretty far one way or the other. This mortgage crisis is interesting because there are some significant implications in longer timeframes. But in the short term Americans are not going to understand it beyond whatever the hype in the news is. So, the impact to the average American might be big in the long term, but statistically, if it shows in a confidence number, it is very likely to reverse in the short term too, as local media outlets get tired of hyping it. Economics is boring unless hundreds of thousands are really suffering. The news will certainly find other, more interesting things to report in a week or two. Doesn't mean the mortgage thing isn't important, or won't have an impact, but within the next couple months this is going to go back and forth a few times. American's won't stay focused on a single economic event for that long.

My 2 cents.
Consumer confidence is basically whatever the average american paid the last time he filled his car's tank. Since gas prices are down a little, I actually expect consumer confidence to be up tomorrow.
  • #16,059
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:47am Aug 27, 2007 10:47am
This is my take on things to come.
http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/1813/short1te2.gif

http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/1923/short2do8.gif

The price has clearly more resistance above than support below
With a major weekly trend that I see to be the hardest one to break but also down we have a 4H trend line and some levels of support I expect more ranging in the blue area, before 1H QQE cross down and confirmed that I think will coincide with the breaking of the 30min 233.34. My first target for TP would be 231.80 38.2 weekly fib with an entry around 233.
If no cross down for 1H QQE it can also go up very hard to decide for the moment, I'll just watch and see what happens.
Edit: 100 SMA on H4 and weekly trend line major resistances.
  • #16,060
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:48am Aug 27, 2007 10:48am
Quoting frank99
Something to think about:

If a trader is wrong 100% of the time, and if it gets worse, will the trader start making money?


Frank


Statistically There is only ways, LONG or SHORT.

You have only 50-50% chances to Win or to lose.

NOW, if you WIN with 80-100pips, and loose only 40pips (Money Management),

Even in the worst case you are winner. You will need 70% to lose and only 30% to win to be a Rally LOOSER. DO some MATH, make a plan..


Cheers


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