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EUR/USD - GBP/USD -- Clean Price Action(no indicators)

  • #201
  • Mar 1, 2026 4:53am Mar 1, 2026 4:53am
Quoting Jewel1996
{quote} Sorry about the situation in your country. I had thought that you were trading from South Africa as per the profile
We got displaced from our home country due to wars, we first re-located to Lebanon and when it became volatile there too, we won a UN lottery ticket for political asylum in south Africa - We have citizens ship and property in South Africa, but ethnically I am Arab - I signed up when I was in Africa and the site used the IP address, but I travel between Africa and Asia, I am responsible in my family to keep things in order regarding the south African property - right now I am in Asia, in the midst of war, which will get volatile very soon!
A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #202
  • Mar 1, 2026 11:12pm Mar 1, 2026 11:12pm
GU
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  • #203
  • Mar 2, 2026 6:31am Mar 2, 2026 6:31am
Quoting Riziq-Cap
Just a small update: I closed my trade on friday, which I am very glad for doing, given what happened Saturday morning. Due to the Geo-political situation, I will not swing trade until things calm down, will only do small 10-20 pips trades and those are very tiresome to post. - Its clear why price was stubborn, because the geopolitical situation was clearly baked into price and the decision was made probably couple of days before - I never trade news events or Geo-political events, I just suck at dissecting such things - I have no idea how price...

This is why I dont trade geo-political events, DXY went up, down to retested the gap and continued up.

What is the rational behind it going up like this? IMO it should have gone down due to the events unfolding.

However, GBP touched 1month FVG and rejected, this was my bottom before the war started.


Trade safely, not sure I will open any positions this week until things calm down
A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #204
  • Edited 7:35pm Mar 9, 2026 6:58pm | Edited 7:35pm
Risky!!

But it seems we are creating a typical Monday high swipe(short) on cable/GU.

There is a small part of last weeks new week opening gap which was not filled fully - last week gapped down, most of the gap was re-filled, but it left a small part unfilled (marked yellow)
- Normally this is a perfect setup I would trade, but given current geopolitics, it provides for added risk.
- Today's price action have created a liquidity pool on top of mentioned Monday high, in form of double top on LTF(1h)

I also see DXY have more room upwards, at least until we reach the relative equal highs from nov 21st 2025 on daily.

Ideally, if you are bearish, you want Monday to go up, reaching a premium area and you initiate your short on Tuesday maybe, so far, price following this script, creating the ideal setup.

Some factors to consider: on the DXY, the suspension block marked in red should be highly sensitive, depends how deep DXY will punch through it, decides the top on GU - given that we predict cable/GU to attack the low and break range - we might see proper stop hunt to capitulate buy stops orders - volatility is very high currently - keep this in mind - however I have marked blue dotted line, were I would ideally put my stop - but if we measure the pips from Monday high to the invalidation(blue dotted line) we get a full 60 pips, which is huge for a stop loss!

How to play this safest as possible? I need to sleep on it and see what to do tomorrow, I will be up for London pre-market - but current visualization for an ideal setup would be create a structure on LTF(15-30-60min), purge/swipe monday high, reject and break the structure and short the re-test - than price dump before NY pre-market start - obviously many variable, but this is my ideal setup when the gap from POI to invalidation is huge like this, I look for something like this.

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(GU 4H - excuse the messy chart, but my head is full these past 10 days and havent cleaned the chart yet)

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(DXY 1D)
A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #205
  • Mar 10, 2026 3:50am Mar 10, 2026 3:50am
Quoting Riziq-Cap
Risky!! But it seems we are creating a typical Monday high swipe(short) on cable/GU. There is a small part of last weeks new week opening gap which was not filled fully - last week gapped down, most of the gap was re-filled, but it left a small part unfilled (marked yellow) - Normally this is a perfect setup I would trade, but given current geopolitics, it provides for added risk. - Today's price action have created a liquidity pool on top of mentioned Monday high, in form of double top on LTF(1h) I also see DXY have more room upwards, at least...
Managed to enter at the upper half, almost the top of the yellow box - still have more orders though, which are not activated so far.
A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #206
  • Mar 10, 2026 7:05am Mar 10, 2026 7:05am
Quoting Riziq-Cap
{quote} Managed to enter at the upper half, almost the top of the yellow box - still have more orders though, which are not activated so far.

Rest of orders triggered at the equilibrium of yellow box, during NY pre market at 7am.

Waiting for 1.341 low to break to move SL above the highs.
A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #207
  • Mar 10, 2026 11:05am Mar 10, 2026 11:05am
Could this be the top? did we finally top? I dont like when it lingers this long, I wanna see sensitivity and swift rejection - can allow couple 4h candles to consolidate around, but not at the top, should be the bottom and getting rejected.

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A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #208
  • Mar 10, 2026 11:25am Mar 10, 2026 11:25am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} You can proably snipe it and go long at asian session if you don't have big spreads? or after trump sleeps

I did snipe it, red lines are my shorts.

But now its sitting at the bottom, which is allowed, but still wanna see break of structure @ 1.341

spreads was normal when I entered earlier, currently on TV, which is not showing spread and too lazy to open the app of the broker to check it.
A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #209
  • Mar 10, 2026 2:44pm Mar 10, 2026 2:44pm
Quoting Riziq-Cap
{quote} Rest of orders triggered at the equilibrium of yellow box, during NY pre market at 7am. Waiting for 1.341 low to break to move SL above the highs.
We just took out that low, waiting for acceptance and close (1h,2h or 4h) below the low.
- Still holding btw.

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A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #210
  • Mar 10, 2026 3:32pm Mar 10, 2026 3:32pm
Quoting Riziq-Cap
Risky!! But it seems we are creating a typical Monday high swipe(short) on cable/GU. There is a small part of last weeks new week opening gap which was not filled fully - last week gapped down, most of the gap was re-filled, but it left a small part unfilled (marked yellow) - Normally this is a perfect setup I would trade, but given current geopolitics, it provides for added risk. - Today's price action have created a liquidity pool on top of mentioned Monday high, in form of double top on LTF(1h) I also see DXY have more room upwards, at least...
DXY: what does sensitivity mean?
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1D DXY
A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #211
  • Mar 10, 2026 6:21pm Mar 10, 2026 6:21pm
Quoting Riziq-Cap
{quote} We just took out that low, waiting for acceptance and close (1h,2h or 4h) below the low. - Still holding btw. {image} {image}
Moved SL above Tuesday high.

- We had close below the mentioned low
- London high was respected, although it did create a double high, which is typically a liquidity pool - I am trusting this to be the top
- If I am wrong, the risk is low anyway and I can sleep much better - aprox 15pip from entry, making potential loss average risk - im practicing low risk given the geopolitical situation

I'm riding this all the way to the bottom - I spread my position in 3 orders, because I can manage TP much easier by placing resting orders, instead of manually reducing the position, which would require me to be on the screen all day.

Will update when I close or exit earlier then planned - I will show my TPs tomorrow, if price move further down.
A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #212
  • Mar 11, 2026 3:36am Mar 11, 2026 3:36am
Looks my position survived yesterday's dead cat bounce!!
A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #213
  • Mar 11, 2026 7:54am Mar 11, 2026 7:54am
Quoting Riziq-Cap
{quote} Moved SL above Tuesday high. - We had close below the mentioned low - London high was respected, although it did create a double high, which is typically a liquidity pool - I am trusting this to be the top - If I am wrong, the risk is low anyway and I can sleep much better - aprox 15pip from entry, making potential loss average risk - im practicing low risk given the geopolitical situation I'm riding this all the way to the bottom - I spread my position in 3 orders, because I can manage TP much easier by placing resting orders, instead of...
Moved SL at the lower edge of the yellow box, slightly in profit.

Price have nothing to do up anymore, if my analysis regarding this short is right!

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(day P/L only means since daily close last night - im still holding full position and no partials taken yet)
A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #214
  • Mar 11, 2026 10:44am Mar 11, 2026 10:44am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} we are in the low of the asian session, but it looks rangy.. technically it could just waterfall 70 more pips
Yes, Asia got swiped during London and now back to same place again - 4H looks like its about do dump hard - I think the job at the top is done, hence why i moved my stop
A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #215
  • Mar 11, 2026 7:02pm Mar 11, 2026 7:02pm
Slow, but steady - EU dumped much harder, DXY pumped now outside the NWOG, it gapped after daily close - but GU still lagging.
- protected by SL and price far away, will sleep well tonight and hopefully Asia dumps hard while I sleep.
--- bottom green line is my first TP

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A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #216
  • Mar 12, 2026 9:29am Mar 12, 2026 9:29am
still holding, but looking to close some partials, because its very very slow and DXY about to break out.

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A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #217
  • Mar 12, 2026 11:04am Mar 12, 2026 11:04am
Quoting Riziq-Cap
Risky!! But it seems we are creating a typical Monday high swipe(short) on cable/GU. There is a small part of last weeks new week opening gap which was not filled fully - last week gapped down, most of the gap was re-filled, but it left a small part unfilled (marked yellow) - Normally this is a perfect setup I would trade, but given current geopolitics, it provides for added risk. - Today's price action have created a liquidity pool on top of mentioned Monday high, in form of double top on LTF(1h) I also see DXY have more room upwards, at least...
All TPs marked in green lines
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1H
A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #218
  • Mar 13, 2026 1:32am Mar 13, 2026 1:32am
Very difficult to stick to the plan.... DXY mooning, EU dumping hard, almost reaching final macro target, GU not even close to local low!

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A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #219
  • Mar 13, 2026 3:03am Mar 13, 2026 3:03am
Quoting Riziq-Cap
Risky!! But it seems we are creating a typical Monday high swipe(short) on cable/GU. There is a small part of last weeks new week opening gap which was not filled fully - last week gapped down, most of the gap was re-filled, but it left a small part unfilled (marked yellow) - Normally this is a perfect setup I would trade, but given current geopolitics, it provides for added risk. - Today's price action have created a liquidity pool on top of mentioned Monday high, in form of double top on LTF(1h) I also see DXY have more room upwards, at least...
Im fully out, 185 pips, more or less(did not measure exact)

Bagged around 1300Euro

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A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
  • #220
  • Mar 14, 2026 12:07am Mar 14, 2026 12:07am
Quoting Riziq-Cap
{quote} Im fully out, 185 pips, more or less(did not measure exact) Bagged around 1300Euro {image}
Congratulations. And thanks for sharing. Looking forward to your insight for next week.
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