Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Maybe something like this im thinking atm

Thank you for the explanation. I am still a beginner to some extent, so this is very helpful.

There's the "nudge". Next comes the cascade and then profit taking. Then fake move south to take out stops and reload

Inverted chart again...

This move started very weak looking (highlighted in chart). Had a nice spike to take out a low at 69400 and retest that break. Also slightly broke the trendline I was talking about. Buying still looks strong though and this looks like stop hunting before the bigger move up.

Markets never make it easy. I can't repeat that enough.

This is why I don't like trailing stops when targeting a big move, especially in the beginning. I want to see a break of the highs first, then we can strategically trail the stop. In the beginning of a big move, they'll use some moves to trick traders at last second, like what just happened. But there are always clues as to what's really going on if you know what to look for.

inverted chart again...

Again, weak start to the move (highlighted). Not the look of a sustained move. Some bears not seeing the writing on the wall, and BPs happy to buy what theyre selling. Will probably be their last attempt before it pumps.

The more thoroughly tested an area is, the less need to to come back and test again later on.

Its been a wild afternoon (trading wise anyways...life wise I was at the dog park and at the grocery store, so yeah, not too exciting but pretty awesome). Anyways, about 4:58 est (2 minutes before CME bitcoin futures closes for an hour) Im sitting at the dog park and decide to add more size to my position. I figured the little selloff we had from the highs was probably over. Nothing crazy, another 20k which would increase position from 344k to 364k. I didnt start with that much on initial entry, btw...I have added a little bit here and there as it went my way.

So I leave the dog park, pull into the grocery store parking lot and say "hmm, how much will i make if I target 83k?" So I punch that it and see something that seems excessive. Im like oh shit I must've put 200k not 20k. Well i thought for a second and said maybe its a sign from God to go heavier on this one, so I left it in.

I walk into the grocery store, now I have one eye on where im pushing the cart and one eye on the chart on my phone. Its a few minutes after five, and sure enough bitcoin starting to head lower. Im standing there at check out watching the fucking chart.

I never fail to underestimate how likely the markets will go RIGHT up to the edge before they turn! That low earlier today was a good fake/stop hunt and probably shouldn't be broken. I didnt move my stop there yet, but I did have my finger on the trigger if it came too close----which is exactly what it did as i was paying for my groceries. Cashier probably thought I was insane as I stared at phone while paying. Came to the exact spot where if it went even $100 more i would exit.

It went RIGHT to the point where anyone who went long this morning off that selloff (outside of the very first buy order) had their position tested (see chart). Im sure many stops were hit as traders like to put at b/e as soon as possible (a mistake I believe).

I kept reminding myself all the things ive talked about in here, and how this move today from the high looks weak as fuck....but you cant argue with the market. If it starts doing things you didnt think it would do, you should get out.

So it came right up to that spot where I had to question if I still want to be in this trade, and thankfully (for now) I didnt panic, but I do know where my stop is going now. This thing goes back to those lows we had an hour ago and Im out.

Long again!

These bears are annoying!

Taking small profit here and watching. Might be another spike selloff

Trying another long

The amount of fuckery thats been going on is next level. Its hever easy, but this has been ridiculous.

Makes me think even a target at 83k is too conservative, but I'll see when/if gets there

It appears to be heading toward 74,000, although slowly. It will likely consolidate sideways for a while, reflecting market indecision and creating a difficult trading environment.

While recent news seems to be bullish, BTC/USD typically doesn't react strongly to short-term news events. However, combining these fundamentals with current technical analysis reinforces the 74,000 target, even if the timeframe remains uncertain. For now, my strategy is to wait for a minor pullback to open a long position, targeting only short-term price movements.

Going for smaller moves is probably the best thing to do in all honesty. I hate to think of all the money Ive let disappear from a profitable trade because of targeting bigger trades over the years. Shit, just in last couple weeks I could've made an extra 20k easy had I taken profits instead of going for the big waves.

The markets spend so much time bouncing around back and forth going nowhere. It Is nice when I catch a big wave, like the big selloff we had in February I caught a good amount of it, but even when I do get a great entry at beginning of big wave I start thinking this is too easy and start remembering all the times ive let profits disappear. Its a mind game and its hard to think straight sometimes when a good amount of money is on the table.

The other thing is for me, once I start targeting a big wave, its hard to stop. I feel like as soon as I just take profits early that'll be the fucking wave that goes on and on. Im tempted to just take the next 15k-20k profit move, but I fear that'll be the one that could've made me 100k+. Its a tough dilemma i face all the time

Well i just exited that long around b/e. Been thinking about what i last posted. Need to go flat and ponder some more

Bitcoin seems hell bent on revisiting 67k I think

c wave is complete.

anyone btc/usd prediction?

Chances of that seem slim now.

Going long with stop at 69000
Target 78k

I think it'll come up to test the underside of the broken blue trendline in chart

What a battle around the 70600 mark