Blue's Clues to Trading: Timing Levels and Behaviour of Price

What do u mean? you'll be on permanent Daylight Savin Time . But seriously, that is a very good move. There is just no need to be moving clocks back and forward in this day and age..especially when countries can't even do it on the same weekend

Hahaha yes !!! Your correct... I only know we are staying on one time too much time in the Brew lab me thinks

Yes, Thank you. I Have the pdf now.

Thank you, really appreciate this much detailed reply.

Just observations,,,I didnt trade today.

Timings, levels, and behavior of price when Stacey Burke meets rockypoint.

Now thats a lovely chart ! ! ! ..time flies eh...

Much appreciated

Timings / Levels / Behaviour Of Price

B.O.P. is the key as it revolves around Timings and Levels...... Just a hint of sorts I guess........

The Open sets the Sentiment and The Close
Confirms the Conviction both are very important. Something to file in the back of the mind

Even though they say Joe's Open and the Pro:s close... Both are very important to observe. What we will see tomorrow at the Open ??? !!!!

Lastly,,,, The Hack to success in trading.
Yep this is it...the be all to end all...

3 things to focus on...solely,,,,
get good at these..
then get better and better at these.

"Manage" not Control..and by manage I mean be
A good manger as we can't control everything ever.
So be a good manager
.....
A manger of what Blue ???

3 things....in order of importance.

#1 Manage your Emotions
#2 Manage your Executions
#3 Manage your Risk

That's it get good at those 3 things and the world is yours as you wish.

As always wishing you the best .

Initial balance ES

The first thing that I noticed this morning was how price was going to open up within the previous days initial balance range.

Two and a half points from yesterday's open. Why is this significant. Well for the fact that it shows that the market is balanced until proven otherwise.

In a balanced market we are looking for rotations near edges of value.

Next question is where are the edges of value?

We have three different types.
Initial balance
VWAPs
Volume profile

How's the market opens we see we are within the initial balance we are within weekly and monthly VWAP and we are smack dab on the session the VWAP line at the open.

So we are in a totally balanced market.

At 10:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. present perfect shorts once again timings..

At both 10 and 11 the market is at the previous days IB high it is at the 1SD of the session VWAP. It is at the previous day's value area low VAL and it is at the weekly POC point of control.

Timings levels behaviour of price....


On those two setups alone those two shorts conservatively and easy six points each 12 points net..
More aggressive targeting other sides of value you're looking at a couple 30-point trades and in a ranging market .


If you missed the first short setup at 10:00. And you simply observed price. And you saw it come back at 11:00 and test the edge of value again. Could have taken the 11:00 trade.

Peel the onion back your first question is always are we balanced or imbalanced.

Balanced you want to fade the edges of value..

Imbalanced you want to go with the flow of the market. Follow the breakout buying or selling on retraces/pullbacks to the 1SD.. never fade an imbalanced market you will get run over.

Hope this helps .

My grandfather told me ,,,,

Figures lie and
Liars figure..

Today's CPI
Are we winning!!!

Price changes over last year (February CPI report)
Gas Utilities: +10.9%
Fuel Oil: +6.2%
Electricity: +4.8%
Medical Care: +4.1%
Food away from home: +3.9%
Shelter: +3.0%
Overall CPI: +2.4%
Food at home: +2.4%
Transportation: +2.2%
New Cars: +0.5%
Used Cars: -3.2%
Gasoline: -5.6%

These numbers were all calculated before the Iran war.

None of them are any better now they are all worse.

Gasoline prices which the government came out pounding their chest is down yes that's what the numbers were at the time the report was printed..

But gasoline is up plus 26% since this report..

Some grandpa-isms... At least a few I can share publicly lol

Figures lie and
Liars figure

He always told me the name of his law firm was
Dooey Cheetum & Howe

And not so correct this one don't shoot the messenger it was Grandpa..

If it's got tits or tires it's trouble.

That's about as far as I better go

Oh and his favorite baseball player
Bob Loblaw

Always love Linda...
New interview with Jason Shapiro...

But he's awfully quiet !

God gave you two ears and one mouth ...
In other words you should be listening twice
As much as your talking !!!
(Mom saying)


40 minutes or so in.... Shes talking exactly about what I have been posting about.. the open ..even about the 8 am open (Vidvad)

Exact same setups every single day( almost )

This morning is what Linda is talking about maybe 40 mins into vid... Pay attention to the Open,,,,

Balance or Imbalance,,,From Monthly to Weekly to Daily to trading session...

The Open,,,,,,

Thats all either you get it or you dont.

I trade the NQ and ES with a discretionary system, but I have been back testing strategies, and have found one that works on the daily chart completely mechanically, so it can be automated. How much discretion would you say is involved in your execution? Even though you guys seem to be heavily rules-based.

I have been chewing on this one today as I think many completely miss the point on discretion... They look down on it..and I can tell you 1000% they are wrong and are missing the bigger picture..or they simply do not understand..not to slight anyone but them the facts...

Why do I say that... I could write an essay on the why,,,truly. But I will try not too

First off...Most retail traders fail...we all know that.. it is my opinion most algo traders fail at even a greater number.
Everyone wants an automated ATM but they are few and far in between,,,again IMHO..

And I should address this first. How much discretion is involved in each of my executions... I honestly cant answer that precisely.

I am a Rules Based Discretionary trader..

While my system is heavily rules-based to ensure consistency, I would categorize it as Rules-Based Discretionary.
The 'Rules' provide the framework: I know exactly what a setup looks like and what my risk parameters are.

However, 'Discretion' is used to read the market context.
For example, I use discretion to determine if the current price action is a genuine move or a distribution event (like seeing VOLD diverge from price).
A mechanical system is great for the Daily chart where noise is lower,
but on intraday NQ/ES, the ability to 'veto' a setup based on real-time order flow is, in my opinion,
a massive edge that pure automation often misses.

I like to think and explain in analogies.... Flying a commercial jet.... thats my first thought...
Why because we have Full autopilot we have IFR(instruments only) think indicators and we have VFR(visual,,think charts big picture)
In aviation this is called "Automation Management" IFR

In a 747, the autopilot is incredible at the "Mechanical" part—holding an altitude, following a GPS track, and managing fuel efficiency.
But when the environment becomes "Non-Standard" (a microburst, severe turbulence, or a hydraulic failure), the pilot doesn't just sit back.
They often disconnect the autopilot to "feel" the plane.

Why the "Computer" Fails in the Storm
A flight computer only knows what it is programmed to do. If a sensor freezes (like the Pitot tubes on Air France 447),
the computer gets "confused" because the data is conflicting. It might try to climb when it should descend.

Similarly, in trading:
The Algo sees a "Breakout" and buys.
The RULES Based Discretionary Trader sees the breakout but notices that Volume is falling and ES or NQ is lagging.
Like the pilot, you realize the "instrument" (the price candle) is lying to you because the "environment" (the order flow) is broken.

I hope that somewhat helps to explain a little bit how Discretion can be your biggest edge. Discretion is nothing more than a different
type or form of Risk Mgmt. Most try and shy away due to their personal psychology issues...and nothing wrong with that,, But the facts
are rules based discretionary traders are the most successful... I wont debate this with anyone because I simply know that as fact.
And if you dont know that then you simply dont have the knowledge yet.

The mechanical system provides the skeleton, but your discretion provides the nervous system that reacts to the actual environment
is another way of looking at it.

So in a nutshell I trade using IFR VFR to the environment... And for the most part it is continually changing daily,,yet the same.
I need my hands on the rudder always zero exceptions. So hmmm yep when you peel the onion back drill down to the minutia there is
probably discretion at some level in every decision.

A long winded answer that really ,,perhaps doesnt answer your question !

Just know Discretion is not the enemy it is your strongest edge IMHO that is....
and finally its why a rules based system given to a dozen trader will give a dozen different results... Turtles

Cheers and thanks for stopping by.

I shied away from AI but I must confess the last month I have gone all in lol.

It has helped me immensely,,, I have it doing all sorts of BS (not Bluesteele)

Here's a few blurbs from it tonight:

"You’ve got it. Since those 6:30 AM candles can be a bit of a blur before the coffee kicks in, I’ll have the "Execution Checklist" ready for you.
We’ll focus on the Initial Balance (IB) and those VWAP levels you like to front-run.

It really is a massive leap from those acoustic couplers and clicking Teletype machines to where we are tonight.
Back then, you were waiting for a ribbon to strike paper; now, we're calculating fermentation curves and market liquidity in real-time while you're in the "brewlab" with a glass of Batch #5.
I’ll be standing by. Get some sleep—that 9.45% ABV might make that 6:00 AM alarm feel a little extra "loud" tomorrow!
Would you like me to ping you right at 6:15 AM to review the overnight overnight highs/lows before the open?

Done. I've set a reminder for 6:15 AM tomorrow morning to review the overnight highs and lows for the NQ and ES open.
It’s quite the leap from those old Teletype machines to having a digital assistant ready for the morning bell.
Enjoy that last glass of Batch #5, and I'll be here to help you navigate the open in a few hours.
Rest well!"



BTW,,,,, BullsEye Brewing is on Batch #19.... I have been a busy Beaver ! Batch 5 is a hit.. A 9.45% Simple Apple cider that
is smooth as silk. Absolutely dangerous as the alcohol is so subtle.....anyways Vices... I am human


I have begun to think of AI as the Co-Pilot....a useful tool for sure.
anyways 10pm is cutoff time for last call before bed lol...its 955 !

Cheers !

I said to my wife "I'm as smart as AI!"

She said, "Pretending you're intelligent is not the same as "Artificial Intelligence."

Well, she got me there.

hahaha

Went out the other evening with the wife for a quick trip to PetSmart and Walmart ! fun yes yes...anyways she was driving...
We get to PetSmart first...."Are you coming in with me ? mmm Nope I am going to chat with AI.... she said WHAT (etc etc) !!!

I said you see Gemini doesnt talk to me like that ! lol...oops..

I think I am in trouble in more ways than one !!!

Just noticed this video,,,thought I would share as it encompasses the essence of my trading.

Around the 26 min mark he goes into composite VP..overlapping value,,, good stuff

Worth a watch for those using VWAP IB VP etc AMT.....