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  • #19,261
  • Mar 6, 2026 8:23am Mar 6, 2026 8:23am
EURUSD H1

The chart is currently forming a “stacked BOS” structure.
When such a sequence appears on EURUSD, it is often followed by a large impulsive move without a significant pullback.

On H1 it looks like this:
1.1620 → LH
1.1580 → HL → BOS (H1 closed below)
1.1560 → HL → another BOS (H1 closed below)

1.1580 is still important.
Even though we have a BOS below 1.1560, the level:
1.1580
remains:
a flip resistance
because:

  1. the first BOS occurred there,
  2. many orders are located around that level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,262
  • Mar 6, 2026 9:38am Mar 6, 2026 9:38am
In a normal world, a -92K jobs print would send EUR/USD soaring 100 pips. However, the pair is struggling to maintain its gains because of the ongoing war with Iran (entering its 7th day) is forcing capital into the USD regardless of the bad domestic data. I expect a gap on Monday.
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  • #19,263
  • Mar 6, 2026 10:03am Mar 6, 2026 10:03am
The "path of least resistance" is currently lower. The market is testing the resolve of the bulls at this channel break, and without a fundamental catalyst to save it, the technicals favor the bears heading into the weekend.

If the weekly 50 sma and the low of this channel break harder I will target 1.1391 first.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,264
  • Mar 7, 2026 1:43am Mar 7, 2026 1:43am
The EUR/USD saw a sharp decline this week following the Monday open. Previously trading near 1.1800, an opening gap lower ignited bearish momentum that easily cleared the 1.1700 and 1.1600 psychological levels.

The pair eventually stabilized after hitting a weekly low of 1.1530, leading to a consolidation phase within a wide range between 1.1657 and 1.1530.

Key Technical Outlook

Bearish Bias: Higher timeframe technicals suggest a bearish continuation remains likely while the pair stays below the broken 1.1700 level. Any relief rallies appear capped by the 1.1742/47 resistance zone.

Support Levels: On the downside, the 1.1547 and 1.1530 supports are currently keeping the upward correction intact.

Downside Targets: A decisive break below these levels could see the pair test the 1.1500–1.1491 area. If momentum persists without a bounce, the next major targets are the lower weekly range at 1.1468/55, followed by the 1.1400–1.1391 zone.



Weekly volatility (range) 126 pips

Significant news - US CPI, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Trade Balance, US Durable Goods & US PCE


Have great weekend!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2026-03-07_08-42-25.png Size: 63 KB
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,265
  • Edited 1:03pm Mar 7, 2026 8:18am | Edited 1:03pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EUR/USD saw a sharp decline this week following the Monday open. Previously trading near 1.1800, an opening gap lower ignited bearish momentum that easily cleared the 1.1700 and 1.1600 psychological levels. The pair eventually stabilized after hitting a weekly low of 1.1530, leading to a consolidation phase within a wide range between 1.1657 and 1.1530. Key Technical Outlook Bearish Bias: Higher timeframe technicals suggest a bearish continuation remains likely while the pair stays below the broken 1.1700 level. Any relief rallies appear capped...
I 100% AGREE WITH THIS MESSAGE. (I read this comment after doing my own weekend observations so I am not biased by anyone else.) The Weekly Chart gives powerful context to the Daily when the data is best (Weekends). The confluence of other pairs (Heaven Forbid) can give subtle clues when taking a broader approach 'looking through the other end of a telescope'. Without regurgitating the same comments mentioned; here are my charts with USD paired. As I stated elsewhere over a week ago now I will say all I see is EVEN MORE TRAPPED BULLS and the close Friday near the high of day just barely closed above Tuesday's close AND it was pushed up manipulation towards the end of the session which normally sells off in a healthy uptrend. (The Daily of the AUD/USD IS EVEN WEAKER than EUR/USD just for MARKET CONTEXT.) Ignoring valuable information in terms of GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS AND TREND CHANGE is very dangerous and foolish. At age 75 I have seen a few market cycles take shape so tread lightly if you run with the Bulls IMHO.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,266
  • Mar 8, 2026 3:08pm Mar 8, 2026 3:08pm
Looks like we might see another gap down to start the week.

latest cot report also showing market is switching to shorts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,267
  • Edited 6:50pm Mar 8, 2026 5:08pm | Edited 6:50pm
Gap down significant and below 1550. Bull has to wait…. Initial game plan is we should potentially go higher to 1743 but gap down kinda change the plan. Puts me off buying

i have also longs that i opened last week trapped because of the gap down… hopefully i can avoid the loss
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,268
  • Mar 8, 2026 11:35pm Mar 8, 2026 11:35pm
The EUR/USD opened lower at 1.1546 and hit a low of 1.1507, approaching the 1.1500-1.1490 support zone and leaving a significant gap. If this zone breaks, the downward trend is expected to continue toward the next support at 1.1468. Conversely, resistance at 1.1555 should cap gains, otherwise, the pair may correct higher toward 1.1600

Daily volatility (range) 58 pips


Have great week!

4H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2026-03-09_06-09-52.png Size: 53 KB
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  • #19,269
  • Mar 9, 2026 1:36am Mar 9, 2026 1:36am
Probably we'll see the gap closing after this mornings positive movement but 1.16+ should cap.
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  • #19,270
  • Mar 9, 2026 2:13am Mar 9, 2026 2:13am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Probably we'll see the gap closing after this mornings positive movement but 1.16+ should cap.
too much uncertainty with the war. Last week did manage to close back above 1600 but under 1650 suggests bear in control but a pull back may happen. However the gap down puts me off buying until i get a good signal. So maybe i will wait and see.

i still expecting a pull back though but 1743 looks far away
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,271
  • Mar 9, 2026 2:59am Mar 9, 2026 2:59am
Quoting johncen
{quote} too much uncertainty with the war. Last week did manage to close back above 1600 but under 1650 suggests bear in control but a pull back may happen. However the gap down puts me off buying until i get a good signal. So maybe i will wait and see. i still expecting a pull back though but 1743 looks far away
Yes bulls didn't follow the first time but they might give us this pullback finally. I've got 1.1650 too.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,272
  • Mar 9, 2026 3:03am Mar 9, 2026 3:03am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Yes bulls didn't follow the first time but they might give us this pullback finally. I've got 1.1650 too.
also Bulls may came due to US economic data this weej
Never Lose Hope
  • #19,273
  • Mar 9, 2026 3:12am Mar 9, 2026 3:12am
Quoting Mr.rama
{quote} also Bulls may came due to US economic data this weej
So we might see some consolidation before us cpi this week
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  • #19,274
  • Mar 9, 2026 3:30am Mar 9, 2026 3:30am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} So we might see some consolidation before us cpi this week
london continue dumping
no red news before cpi so beginning of the week is pretty much war driven. Unless we see a de-escalation of the current situation, bear is in control.
but again too low to short.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,275
  • Mar 9, 2026 3:33am Mar 9, 2026 3:33am
Imo EU swingers will enter long soon.

all the down side liquidity of the last 3 months achieved.
  • #19,276
  • Mar 9, 2026 3:37am Mar 9, 2026 3:37am
Quoting johncen
Looks like we might see another gap down to start the week. latest cot report also showing market is switching to shorts {image}
as you stated day ago market to start with gap really are happen
Never Lose Hope
  • #19,277
  • Mar 9, 2026 3:39am Mar 9, 2026 3:39am
London just opened and is trading down BELOW Friday's low trapping ALL the bulls..... Again. Completely opposite of the 'Gap Up' when the market opened last Sunday, the Pain intensifies as more and more bulls panic and head for the exit or get margined out. 'May the force be with you.'
  • #19,278
  • Mar 9, 2026 3:40am Mar 9, 2026 3:40am
Quoting Whale
Imo EU swingers will enter long soon. all the down side liquidity of the last 3 months achieved.

next level should be 1.1648 and 1.1725
  • #19,279
  • Mar 9, 2026 4:00am Mar 9, 2026 4:00am
Quoting Twocans
{quote} Just curios.... why do you 'Quote' yourself? lol... Just kidding a lil bit...
For the continuation of the previous post.. i didnt want to edit it.
  • #19,280
  • Mar 9, 2026 4:42am Mar 9, 2026 4:42am
Market makers should have a ton of selling orders to cover and meanwhile they keep buying deeps towards 1500 zone until they dump eu eventually!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
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