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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #10,581
  • Mar 5, 2026 2:37am Mar 5, 2026 2:37am
Any impact of US-Iran War on this pair, shouldn't we stop trading cable for some days? Alan kindly your take on it
  • #10,582
  • Mar 5, 2026 3:31am Mar 5, 2026 3:31am
Lets grab +35 back to the daily open.
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  • #10,583
  • Mar 5, 2026 6:42am Mar 5, 2026 6:42am
Quoting yahya11
Any impact of US-Iran War on this pair, shouldn't we stop trading cable for some days? Alan kindly your take on it
I don't trade news. I simply trade the signals I see with the appropriate stops.

If you follow news as a trader, it will mess with your head.
We need to trade what we see not what we think.
We cannot think trades.

That's my take on news, wars or otherwise.
  • #10,584
  • Mar 5, 2026 6:53am Mar 5, 2026 6:53am
News is one of those things wide open to interpretation depending on the context.

Trading signals are hard evidence of a potential situation arising.

Check out this 15 min chart and SEE the evidence...
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  • #10,585
  • Mar 8, 2026 11:12am Mar 8, 2026 11:12am
Find the H1 ZOO points. Lots to choose from.
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Drop to M15 and spot the divergence.
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Target the last EMA swing level or 40 pips. Easy in hindsight.
  • #10,586
  • Mar 8, 2026 8:46pm Mar 8, 2026 8:46pm
I've been saying for decades it is difficult for individual traders to trade all situations because we simply cannot put in the 100% attention. This is why we miss so much and thus only recognize situations in hindsight. All this activity and we are only dealing with one pair. Institutions have teams of traders working multiple pairs hoping to make a profit from collective effort.

As an individual I can only do so much which is why I try to trade the period of maximum activity and the signals given within that time frame. I have to ask several questions of myself.

1) Do I have a signal at an appropriate place?
2) Do I have a target which can accommodate my profit?
3) How much time am I going to give it?
4) What if this fails, where is my stop?
5) When should I move my stop to break even?
6) Is there a counter signal looming?
7) Should I take additional positions to compound my profit?
8) Should I close and trade the opposite direction to make up my profit?
9) What is a reasonable profit?
10) What is a reasonable risk?

All of these questions have to be practiced until they are just about automatic mental responses. I have been doing this a long time and still get it wrong from time to time hence Q4 and use of a stop.

Each of us decide our own fate via performance be it 2% per day, 2% per week or 2% per month any less would be pointless because the reward for effort is dropping off a cliff here unless this is treated as simply a hobby. I would suggest that newbies do in fact treat it as a hobby learning the tricks and traps the market is very capable of. Trading with real money no matter how small is radically different than using dummy money which is just a waste of time.

The main idea is to find a trading method that suits your many situations and practice it before committing further.
  • #10,587
  • Mar 13, 2026 3:52pm Mar 13, 2026 3:52pm
Trading the H4. Lots of patience needed here. 3 sell trades each about +100 to target.
Bearish divergence and target the lower EMA swing.
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  • #10,588
  • Mar 18, 2026 7:47pm Mar 18, 2026 7:47pm
Below is the 15 min chart I thought I would show as a reminder of how I track price action.

My trade was at the usual time taking a few short and long to make up the 40 pips. Shown by the trend line breaks on the RSI. In the red circle.

However, it is the major event of the day I wish to point out (I didn't trade this, too late for me)

It begins with the blue HD at the top running down to the counter blue HD at the bottom.

Then a retracement to form what looks like an AB=CD setup.

Indeed, this ran to the D target with the addition of the + distance.

Once the target was hit a bull div was formed and is where we are at just now.
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Just a little reminder of the consistency of the market price tracking.
  • #10,589
  • Mar 18, 2026 10:48pm Mar 18, 2026 10:48pm
Hi guys, it’s been a while! Yesterday was a massive win!
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  • #10,590
  • Mar 19, 2026 7:19am Mar 19, 2026 7:19am
Quoting Nala66
Below is the 15 min chart I thought I would show as a reminder of how I track price action. My trade was at the usual time taking a few short and long to make up the 40 pips. Shown by the trend line breaks on the RSI. In the red circle. However, it is the major event of the day I wish to point out (I didn't trade this, too late for me) It begins with the blue HD at the top running down to the counter blue HD at the bottom. Then a retracement to form what looks like an AB=CD setup. Indeed, this ran to the D target with the addition of the + distance....
Can you re describe how to identify A, B,C point in the ABCD retracement? It work fantastic but sometimes I failed to track them.
  • #10,591
  • Mar 19, 2026 7:30pm Mar 19, 2026 7:30pm
Quoting Fiona96
{quote} Can you re describe how to identify A, B,C point in the ABCD retracement? It work fantastic but sometimes I failed to track them.
Well yes, I can.

Firstly, these are very easy to see in hindsight but are very difficult to predict so in my opinion the best thing is to break the structure down and trade each element individually.

1) We begin with the signal at A. This was a bear HD, so we place a pending short trade below A with a stop just above it. Price starts to fall and picks up our order.
2) Now we have to make a decision for our exit. This could be a set distance for our profit (which is what I do) or we could just wait for the counter signal at B for the additional pips. This counter signal could easily come before we make our set profit target so there is some risk involved if we just leave the trade alone to do its thing.
3) In the case above the profit target of 40 pips was easily hit. However, if the bull signal came earlier say 30 pips, then we would be a tad short of our profit and require a further 10 pips. This means we need another trade to make up the difference so we could use the leg BC expecting price to make 50% of the AB leg. 50% of AB would easily make up the additional 10 pips.
4)The best trade within the structure is CD. Once price has passed through C which is 50% of AB, we can place a pending short and catch the continuation pull back with a known expected target of the AB distance and a stop just above the highest point of C. On the chart above this was about a 1:8 risk reward, well worth a shot.

What has happened here?
Between A and B, the bears were in control. At B the bulls began to fight back so between A and C both the bulls and bears were winning and competing. When they are both level at C something has to give either of the Bulls or Bears may begin to close. In this case it was the Bulls who closed so the combination of the Bear sellers and the Bull closes (also sales) is represented by the swing CD in practically equal measures to AB.

So, we have to observe the price action making educated assumptions where we can risk a little to gain much more always keep the mathematics in our favor. In other words, we make a plan and trade it accordingly.

Hope this helps to clear up the methodology.
  • #10,592
  • Mar 20, 2026 3:09pm Mar 20, 2026 3:09pm
Trading the H1 this time. Pin bar at an EMA level made me think it was Bear divergence but not quite. Put a test trade on with targets 1,2 and 3 in mind.
Price came back to make a HD so went in again with another trade. Price hesitating around Target 2 so closed both trades for +75 and +50.
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And on the M15
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  • #10,593
  • Mar 21, 2026 11:46pm Mar 21, 2026 11:46pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Well yes, I can. Firstly, these are very easy to see in hindsight but are very difficult to predict so in my opinion the best thing is to break the structure down and trade each element individually. 1) We begin with the signal at A. This was a bear HD, so we place a pending short trade below A with a stop just above it. Price starts to fall and picks up our order. 2) Now we have to make a decision for our exit. This could be a set distance for our profit (which is what I do) or we could just wait for the counter signal at B for the additional...
It great describe. But since then I also have another question, what if at B price comeback and cross C to make a new ABCD (consider your B become a new A of a uptrend ABCD). When would be that happened?
  • #10,594
  • Mar 22, 2026 3:57am Mar 22, 2026 3:57am
Quoting Fiona96
{quote} It great describe. But since then I also have another question, what if at B price comeback and cross C to make a new ABCD (consider your B become a new A of a uptrend ABCD). When would be that happened?
I can maybe add something to this as I don't even look for ABCD or AB=CD or 123 triangles or FIBS or whatever patterns could fit the price action.
Concentrate on getting your daily profit, spotting the divergence at the ZOO points especially at the EMA swings. The 26 EMA indi from BenePamm is an exceptional piece of coding and has helped me immensely.
  • #10,595
  • Mar 22, 2026 10:10am Mar 22, 2026 10:10am
Quoting Fiona96
{quote} It great describe. But since then I also have another question, what if at B price comeback and cross C to make a new ABCD (consider your B become a new A of a uptrend ABCD). When would be that happened?
Well Fiona anything can happen so it important to keep the stop tight, so you only lose a little.

I have only mentioned these trading patterns to give you options. It is for you to pick something to specialize in, don't try to master everything.

Read what 40 says above, it is probably the easiest way to trade. Getting 2% profit a couple or three times a week is to make a fantastic annual profit. Be patient and look for the signals (this is the hardest part of trading).

I cannot write about everything without writing a book, just keep it simple with clear rules you stick to that always gives you the advantage over time.
  • #10,596
  • Mar 22, 2026 10:45am Mar 22, 2026 10:45am
Here are 4 examples on the 1-hour chart for consideration...
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I would take number 1 and number 3 because they are in my trading time. Each made the 40 pips = 2% profit each.

Note how number 3 didn't make the 40 pips because it was stopped by a bull div. So, we take a long to make up the difference.
All the entries were signaled by divs for entries.
This is 8% profit in just two days if they are all traded.
These are by far the easiest trades to take.
  • #10,597
  • Mar 23, 2026 4:57am Mar 23, 2026 4:57am
Gee we don't get this very often. The 1-hour has given us two trades in short order...

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  • #10,598
  • Mar 23, 2026 6:50am Mar 23, 2026 6:50am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} I can maybe add something to this as I don't even look for ABCD or AB=CD or 123 triangles or FIBS or whatever patterns could fit the price action. Concentrate on getting your daily profit, spotting the divergence at the ZOO points especially at the EMA swings. The 26 EMA indi from BenePamm is an exceptional piece of coding and has helped me immensely.
How can I find the BenePamm indicator? At which thread?
  • #10,599
  • Mar 23, 2026 6:58am Mar 23, 2026 6:58am
Quoting Fiona96
{quote} How can I find the BenePamm indicator? At which thread?
Here it is. Thanks Benepamm
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 26 EMA HH-LL.mq4   34 KB | 95 downloads
  • #10,600
  • Mar 23, 2026 7:34am Mar 23, 2026 7:34am
Not sure what made that big jump up for +140 but who cares.
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