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  • #19,241
  • Mar 5, 2026 12:35am Mar 5, 2026 12:35am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} This drop might be a fishing opportunity for more bulls to enter, but looks it will take some time to rise... if not going back below 1.1530
will see if 1575 holds
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,242
  • Mar 5, 2026 1:01am Mar 5, 2026 1:01am
Quoting johncen
{quote} will see if 1575 holds
Correct my friend, taking it step by step when there is uncertainty and staying at sidelines is the best strategy
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,243
  • Mar 5, 2026 2:18am Mar 5, 2026 2:18am
too many spikes on lower time frames, it's hard to keep track of what is happening, lots of uncertainty for sure

i miss boring
  • #19,244
  • Mar 5, 2026 2:31am Mar 5, 2026 2:31am
Quoting Polimini
too many spikes on lower time frames, it's hard to keep track of what is happening, lots of uncertainty for sure i miss boring
well its too low to short. Might be risky to buy so let’s wait for pull back to decide
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,245
  • Mar 5, 2026 4:11am Mar 5, 2026 4:11am
We are in a contraction phase as the range gets tighter. Go back 24 hrs pre mkt NY session and price is virtually unchanged. Wait for price to break out of the box on either side or trade the box high and low.. Its no wonder we have so many conflicting opinions when its a coin toss right now. Higher time frames suggest downside but your guess is as good as mine. "Don't diddle in the middle."
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  • #19,246
  • Mar 5, 2026 7:29am Mar 5, 2026 7:29am
A, B or C? Bloody foolish to fight higher time frames.
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  • #19,247
  • Edited 11:31am Mar 5, 2026 9:21am | Edited 11:31am
Quoting Twocans
A, B or C? Bloody foolish to fight higher time frames. {image} {image}
should get at least A

though i still expect a pull back first.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,248
  • Mar 5, 2026 11:56am Mar 5, 2026 11:56am
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  • #19,249
  • Edited 7:27pm Mar 5, 2026 7:07pm | Edited 7:27pm
EURUSD H1

Local CHOCH – 1.16239 (H1)

If an H1 candle clearly closes above 1.16239, then:
a local CHOCH will occur
short-term momentum will shift bearish → bullish (intraday)
Why:

  1. 1.1623 is the last lower high in the micro downtrend
  2. breaking it means a micro structure shift

What would likely happen next
After a confirmed CHOCH, the market often moves to:
mitigation / liquidity refill
Targets:

  1. 1.1645 – 1.1660

This aligns perfectly with:

  1. the upper channel line
  2. the previous breakdown level

R: 1.1660
Higher-timeframe context

H4 structure is still bearish.

Possible scenario:
CHOCH above 1.1623
pull toward 1.1650 – 1.1660
seller reaction

If price remains below the blue line (1.1623) and an H1 candle fails to close above it, our bounce scenario becomes invalid.
In that case, the market sends a clear signal: “Bulls are weak and don’t even have the strength for a correction.
The CHOCH will not be confirmed.

Rising wedge (green)
The pattern is invalidated if:
H1 closes above 1.1623–1.1630.
As long as price holds above the lower green line of the rising wedge, bulls still have a technical chance to test and break the 1.1624 level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,250
  • Mar 5, 2026 8:36pm Mar 5, 2026 8:36pm
The EUR/USD continues to trade within its established range following a failed attempt to breach support at 1.1530. Now trading back above 1.1600, the pair is looking to surpass recent daily highs. However, resistance at 1.1668 remains a hurdle for a sustained move higher (potentially targeting the 1.1707 handle). Conversely, a break below the 1.1600 level on news catalysts could see the pair testing yesterday’s low and challenging 1.1530 once more, with the scope to reach the 1.1500–1.1491 support zone.

Daily volatility (range) 139 pips

Significant news - US Nonfarm Payrolls & US Retail Sales


Have great day!

4H
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,251
  • Mar 5, 2026 11:02pm Mar 5, 2026 11:02pm
pa ranging bear 1.16. We have nfp tonight but with the war in mind it may not be as decisive as before.
weekly close below 1670 will be a strog bear signal to me.
next week i will try to sell a pull back if we get to retest 1743 again

usdx on daily looks like inverted h&s to me

more a sideline day to me
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,252
  • Mar 5, 2026 11:21pm Mar 5, 2026 11:21pm
Quoting johncen
pa ranging bear 1.16. We have nfp tonight but with the war in mind it may not be as decisive as before. weekly close below 1670 will be a strog bear signal to me. next week i will try to sell a pull back if we get to retest 1743 again usdx on daily looks like inverted h&s to me more a sideline day to me
Agree. The Middle East is on fire yet and oil and gas prices are higher without signs of de-escalation yet the weekend will be crucial. Risking another gap on Monday is dangerous. Probably an upmove will fade unless signs of peace hit the wires.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,253
  • Mar 6, 2026 1:29am Mar 6, 2026 1:29am
Again, too low to short, too risky to buy, best to wait
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,254
  • Mar 6, 2026 1:47am Mar 6, 2026 1:47am
Quoting johncen
Again, too low to short, too risky to buy, best to wait
I was short at the start of the week but exited after the move at 1.1657 thinking the market will reverse but we are still in consolidation mode and bearish. The first falling wave after the gap was the best opportunity to sell but also my target was small. Maybe at next week we get a better price near 1.1700 +/- but I hate the fact that the war might continue!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,255
  • Mar 6, 2026 2:00am Mar 6, 2026 2:00am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} I was short at the start of the week but exited after the move at 1.1657 thinking the market will reverse but we are still in consolidation mode and bearish. The first falling wave after the gap was the best opportunity to sell but also my target was small. Maybe at next week we get a better price near 1.1700 +/- but I hate the fact that the war might continue!
same here was targeting 1670 max 1640 only this week but bear took us to 1530.
yea i think bear will try to close the week as low as possible so may not get a pull back until next week.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,256
  • Mar 6, 2026 3:47am Mar 6, 2026 3:47am
Quoting josip
EURUSD H1 Local CHOCH – 1.16239 (H1) If an H1 candle clearly closes above 1.16239, then: a local CHOCH will occur short-term momentum will shift bearish → bullish (intraday) Why: 1.1623 is the last lower high in the micro downtrend breaking it means a micro structure shift What would likely happen next After a confirmed CHOCH, the market often moves to: mitigation / liquidity refill Targets: 1.1645 – 1.1660 This aligns perfectly with:...
update
EURUSD H1
(Bearish Flag)

The original green rising wedge has been broken to the downside, confirming a weakening of the bulls.

New level 1.15816: Price is currently trading below the new blue line (1.15816). Holding below it is a strongly bearish signal.
BOS Down on H1: With this move, the market confirmed the continuation of the downtrend (Break of Structure).
The previous low at 1.1572 is under heavy pressure.

The lower red line of descending channel could potentially act as the last line of defense before another free fall.
In technical analysis, we view it as a sell-side liquidity target or as a dynamic support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,257
  • Mar 6, 2026 5:03am Mar 6, 2026 5:03am
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chaos is just unknown order
  • #19,258
  • Mar 6, 2026 5:59am Mar 6, 2026 5:59am
Wow bad nfp…. Dollar still getting support
1.1550 is supporting let see
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,259
  • Mar 6, 2026 6:12am Mar 6, 2026 6:12am
Quoting johncen
Wow bad nfp…. Dollar still getting support 1.1550 is supporting let see
Coming from Dec. with Holiday (Seasonal) jobs ending
  • #19,260
  • Mar 6, 2026 6:20am Mar 6, 2026 6:20am
Quoting Twocans
{quote} Coming from Dec. with Holiday (Seasonal) jobs ending
yea last month was a surprise. We back to reality this month
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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