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Trading the NFP this friday

  • #161
  • Dec 8, 2006 9:46am Dec 8, 2006 9:46am
If you notice, the euro teste the high, the franc tested the low and the yen explored both ends of the channel. No new ground was gained today. I see weakening negative dollar sentiment. It is gonna take some new inspirations to get the dollar moving again.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #162
  • Dec 8, 2006 9:53am Dec 8, 2006 9:53am
Quoting fspirani
What is going on? Why pound is down 50 pips again?

Any thoughts.

Thanks
10am Consumer Sentiment?
News releases are nerve wracking!
  • #163
  • Dec 8, 2006 10:04am Dec 8, 2006 10:04am
I wish the number would have fir my trade plan-but I don't feel too bad about it. It would have been much easier to trade if the NFP and revision had matched-turned out they went in opposite directions.

In hindsight, you could say that the market traded off the revised number, and the uptick in the unemp rate. You can look at the chart and see that the euro traded in a channel from 3290 to 3270 since about 13.00 yesterday. It broke that channel right after the NFP, reversed and broke that channel to the upside about 20 minutes later. Perhaps that was a good clue.

If you had thought that the market might ignore the NFP and trade off the revision and if the break of that channel was a significant moment, you could have made some money. If u did, my hat's off to ya!

All I heard on BB was how wonderful this number was for the $. 10 yr bonds were off as the rate rose. It isn't too often that we see the $ and the 10 yr note going in opposite directions, but we have that now.

So again, I had a plan, I was looking for the numbers to come out a certain way and when they didn't, I stayed out. I never feel bad if I miss something, because I always feel that if I would have traded in the heat of battle under these conditions I would have lost. So I preserved some capitol for the next trade.
  • #164
  • Dec 8, 2006 10:09am Dec 8, 2006 10:09am
Quoting NewstraderFX
I wish the number would have fir my trade plan-but I don't feel too bad about it. It would have been much easier to trade if the NFP and revision had matched-turned out they went in opposite directions.

In hindsight, you could say that the market traded off the revised number, and the uptick in the unemp rate. You can look at the chart and see that the euro traded in a channel from 3290 to 3270 since about 13.00 yesterday. It broke that channel right after the NFP, reversed and broke that channel to the upside about 20 minutes later. Perhaps that was a good clue.

If you had thought that the market might ignore the NFP and trade off the revision and if the break of that channel was a significant moment, you could have made some money. If u did, my hat's off to ya!

All I heard on BB was how wonderful this number was for the $. 10 yr bonds were off as the rate rose. It isn't too often that we see the $ and the 10 yr note going in opposite directions, but we have that now.

So again, I had a plan, I was looking for the numbers to come out a certain way and when they didn't, I stayed out. I never feel bad if I miss something, because I always feel that if I would have traded in the heat of battle under these conditions I would have lost. So I preserved some capitol for the next trade.
I had a few scenarios I was considereing too. But, when the numbers came out pretty much inert, I decided to watch only the price action. The dollar spike up was weak. The dollar spike down was 2x as strong, so I knew that would be the direction for the day. At that point is was just about buying the pullback. This is what I did and the trade never went a single pip against me. Clean as a whistle trade.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #165
  • Dec 8, 2006 10:44am Dec 8, 2006 10:44am
Quoting NewstraderFX
So I preserved some capitol for the next trade.
Which is always RULE #1.

I ended up making quite a bit of pips this morning but I've been on the losing end of a "heat of the battle" move as well.
  • #166
  • Dec 8, 2006 10:49am Dec 8, 2006 10:49am
Check this deal out now!

Dollar love abounds!
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #167
  • Dec 8, 2006 10:51am Dec 8, 2006 10:51am
That's what I call RIP OFF
Trading is a long and a short story.
  • #168
  • Dec 8, 2006 10:52am Dec 8, 2006 10:52am
I am just sitting here in awe of the big boyz power.:surprised
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #169
  • Dec 8, 2006 10:55am Dec 8, 2006 10:55am
Quoting FXopportunist
I am just sitting here in awe of the big boyz power.:surprised
Me too! Look what's going on now! WoW - gbp eur down back again -looks as if big powers are fighting...
  • #170
  • Dec 8, 2006 10:59am Dec 8, 2006 10:59am
Moe are you sure GBPUSD will touch 2.000
  • #171
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:00am Dec 8, 2006 11:00am
Nothing to do with big boys power it's the end of a massive up move. So many fools wanted to jump way too late into the dollar bear move but the sensible players can see the move has gone too far and will reverse.
  • #172
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:02am Dec 8, 2006 11:02am
I played the news the other way. I sat out and waited for things to stabilize, went short at the peak (1.9720 GPD/USD) and rode that sucker back down to the trough (1.9525 GBP/USD) that was a nice +190 gain over 2 hours. I'll also ride it back up long for a little bit as well as things consolidate back into more stable pricing. I used to always get burned trying to immediately get in the action. So, I switched styles. I still felt the trend was a downward one and if you take out the past three hours it appears that the trend is continuing downward. My 2 cents.
  • #173
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:03am Dec 8, 2006 11:03am
Man i love this market! I lost on about 3 trades but WOW! I have learnt so much! I have witnessed an awesome move, this market truly is terrific. I have learnt that you can NEVER take your eyes off the screen during serious news announcements. I am glad that I am still demoing! Today has been such a great learning experience for me...I think I will have to learn to trade the news.

Anyways, I am going to take some notes, just an incredible day! I didnt make any money from the trades because of the serious whipsaws, but you have to get in early or watch for rebounds...no two ways about these news releases.

take care guys!!
  • #174
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:04am Dec 8, 2006 11:04am
[quote=notouch]Nothing to do with big boys powerQUOTE]

I am afraid I completely disagree notouch. This was shear size with a few fleas jumping on board for the ride.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #175
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:06am Dec 8, 2006 11:06am
My goodness this is what I call a WHIPSAW!!!
  • #176
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:08am Dec 8, 2006 11:08am
I closed my EURUSD short from 1.3325 after 20 pips, someone slap me please.... :S
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #177
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:12am Dec 8, 2006 11:12am
I have a question though...I can see what caused the market to spike in the USD's favour, but what caused the reversal after that initial spike and then the reversal of that second spike?

I am in utter amazement....3 spikes in one day. Just looking for why they would rebound with such tenacity.

Oh and another thing...what time frame charts do you watch for monitoring/reversals of news releases? 5min? 15 min?

thanks guys!!!!
  • #178
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:13am Dec 8, 2006 11:13am
Did anybody know if Paulson had a conference or something? It seems he caused the crazy moved today.
"Even the word impossible says that I M possible"
  • #179
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:13am Dec 8, 2006 11:13am
I played the reject of 4hr 75sma for 100 pips but didn't think they would come back to retest it today.

wow big money made today. if they break the 75ma will probably test the 200 next week which is currently between the 61.8 and 78 fibs.

That should be a low risk buy with the right confirmation at the 4hr 200sma

have a good weekend
  • #180
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:15am Dec 8, 2006 11:15am
Why is everyone always desperate for reasons?
Just trade people, trade!
Price is on your charts, telling you what it's doing and where it's going, why do you ask for CNBC and newswires to tell you instead of your chart?
Who shows it first?
To me it doesn't matter why, just what =)

*advocates James' Price Action*
Trust price. Know yourself.
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