Blue's Clues to Trading: Timing Levels and Behaviour of Price

One more chart ..just showing the VP levels from yesterday a bit more clear
so one can see where I derive these levels from

Always fascinating observing the behaviour of price. Today, the ES, at 1100 am price had moved thru the monthly POC then retested it twice ..a nice dbl bottom pattern of a major level... For those paying attention

And where does it go?? To liquidity calling it...the previous day's cash open.... Market memory

are the thicker black lines POC?

thanks in advance

The thicker black lines are the Weekly Closes... I think those charts I posted are of RTHs ?
Yes RTH charts.. They can be different from ETH charts especially with holidays.

Heres a 30m chart it has a Monthly close on it and Weekly.. I think this may be more clear than
my word salad




Edit: Usually I keep my POC lines red or pink when I split my profile like for Gold...NY red Globex Pink so
I dont get confused if I have them on extend.

Levels set for tomorrow


SOme great opportunities today using VP and VWAP.
Simple repeatable setups every day.

I had a good chuckle ...saw the term tabarnak used in a reply in the forum this morning.

Been a little while since I heard that one. Growing up with some school mates from Quebec it was our favourite word many moons ago lol..

Saw it and brought back memories...

Tabarnak !!!

Edit: and of course today I have my Montreal Canadiens cap on

hahaha Siiiiii !!!!

Timings Levels Behaviour of Price

1min ES ETHs chart

5min ES RTHs chart

The Open is such an important level and many say even moreso the Close.

Cant say I would argue with that ,,,, they both are important in their own way.

Some thoughts,,,,,,
I always am snapshotting/recording my trades,,and when I have a moment I will
also screenshot TV with some of the relevant things that I am seeing, on my main
trading charts, with the thoughts I will share ....

Most of the time at least 90% I dont share,,,as first and foremost comes my trading.
And if I have time and moreso the inclination... it ebbs and flows

Anyways The OPEN !!!!
In AMT, the 9:30 AM open represents the first collective agreement on price between overnight participants (ETH)
and the massive influx of institutional capital (RTH).

There are 4 main categories of the Opening print

1. Open Auction 2. Open Test Drive 3. Open Drive and 4. Open Rejection Reverse
All based on AMT.

I think its a worthwhile study for those interested in AMT and how the market "really" works

Funny it makes me think of GeorgeAus and how he would impress that one should,,, have a
"Deep and Comprehensive understanding" or better yet here's his exact words...

"DEEP AND COMPREHENSIVE UNDERSTANDING OF THE PSYCHOLOGY APPLIED ,,,,
BY THE MARKET MAKER TO THE PRICE ACTION ! ! ! "

For me that evolved into Auction Market Theory..Jim Dalton etc...It just makes the most sense
to me

Back on track.... The Open,,How many times have I said "Pay attention to the Open"

Here's a few examples of what I mean...and one of my trades today was a perfect
Open Rejection Reverse setups

Some charts I think otherwise I will ramble on...A picture is worth a thousand words as they say...


WHats really relevant with that chart above is Friday was a basic auction balanced day and
price came back testing the Open.. SUnday Globex bounces off the FRI "Open" and we Open Mon
with Gap Down... What is important in terms of the Open is how Fridays Open becomes support.

Once the IB is set several opportunities to get long..... We then see Monday Eve Globex PA that
bounces between Fridays Open and Fri IB low /Mon IB 50% and some VP levels...just an outstanding
short setup for those in that trading time.


So now comes Tues/this mornings US Open.. Basically pushed down thru the major level
then reverses once it has grabbed that liquidity.

Now some further context before I get to Todays Open...We have left all the major VP levels up above.
With a large Breakaway gap down gaps of this magnitude dont often fill the next day but there is a
60-70% probability of a 50% mean reversion.





And for the astute observer you will see the short setup at 935am off VWAP(session)
and 1SD(weekly) ETH charts

How good can you get ??? 1% better every day !!!

After I finished posting the above about the OPEN last night lo n behold an hour later we had
a prime example of the "Naked Open" like a naked POC.
Price came within 3 ticks or so of the NY Open but more important was the surrounding context.

We had a high volume day yesterday.. VAL formed around the Open... THen the Weekly 1SD (VAL)
was spot right on the Open as well.

Price was INBALANCE on the Weekly VWAP and as well Tuesdays Value area.. (VAH-VAL)
When price is Balanced within VWAP and VP Value it rotates...Fade the edges of Value.
Trade at the edge of value..it is one of the highest probability lowest risk situations you can find.
First target is always mean reversion to VWAP and its high probability if price makes it thru VWAP
and holds then price more often than not will test the other side of value...

The same can be said for Volume Profile levels.. VAL POC VAH... Same principles apply.

What I saw coming into the 930 equity Open.
1)Medium sized gap from yesterdays RTHs.. (0.5%)
Thursday gaps are amongst the highest probabilty gaps to close
2)Basic price structure LHs and LLs.
3)Price testing yesterdays NY Open (green line) Pay attention to the Open
4)Price at Weekly and Monthly VP VALs
5)Price at Weekly VWAP...

Now there is zero reason for me to go any other way but long. and if im wrong price
should tell me fairly quickly.

My target is to fill the gap...I was hoping for a stronger push and the 935 and 940 candles
had me thinking hmm..as well I was looking at Market Internals and they werent strong.

Anyways with the internals and price action I exited a pt or so off the top of that 10 am candle,
WHy 10am .. THe 10am reversal !!! Now at 1030isham NY price has pushed down past the Open.
The market reverssed exactly on the 10am candle 1min...thus making that 925am low a valid LL.

So it all played out fairly to the book a 33 pt trade..

Some charts so you can see what Im talking about...I tried to screenshot the charts as close as possible to
the same time I was executing.

First chart 9:29am...Unless something dramatically happens in last minute or less I am executing on the close.


And A RTH chart minute after open 9:31am


Now the trade has wrapped charts from 10:01 am and 10:02 am




Now some commentary on the chart and the last chart showing the 10am market reversal confrimed
by taking out the pre market low and the Open



And thats a wrap for the day. I might add...the Gap...If one was simply targetting the 50% fill there is I believe
probably a 80% probability of that filling in the first hour or so today..Now taken that with the added context
I first laid out one could have peeled off some at that level..or simply exited at 6860 with approx 18 pts in a few minutes

ANyways onwards and upwards...how good can you get as SB says !

I know that everyone is at different levels in their trading journey and we are all different. We all see things in our own way.. but there is an order to the market.

I'm not saying that it is not random although I don't really like that word... There is no guaranteed outcome on any single one trade.b.. but the market leaves bread crumbs footprints huge footprints..

Look at the massive multi-year multi decide returns of some of these top hedge fund managers.. I understand retail is not the same but they are operating on patterns and when you boil it all down it's patterns of human behavior .

The market is nothing but a rational representation of human behavior in all aspects from the top to the bottom... I don't care if it's algos institutions the premise the base premise is basic human behavior...

As GeorgeAUS always said it's the psychology of the market.n.. it will only come with a massive amount of the correct study screen time...

I've mentioned this before many times over the years but I'll mention it again as I don't think I've spoke of this in a long time...

Think of a insurance actuary... They can't predict the outcome of for example a life insurance actuary they can't predict the outcome of an individual the death of an in individual or the disability. But over a large sample set they can be highly accurate otherwise insurance companies would go out of business. They follow their process and they know the outcome over the large data set..

And when you boil it down it comes down to human behavior that dictates the outcome high risk behavior well you're probably not going to live so long.....

And it's very much the same in the markets like I said from top to bottom.. if you really want to level up you need to understand the psychology of the market..

Once again the open... The close....etc...

What got me on this ramble as I opened up my charts and I saw prices behavior at the open at timing at 11:00 a.m... I'm talking about the ES.

Okay I'm back I was busy trading for an hour or so and stepped away from my draft of this post... And with another hour that came and went we had that 11:00 a.m. reversal off the open then we have the 12:00 p.m. noon test the open price again and rejects it..

These are all bread crumbs you can trade these bread crumbs. It may seem complicated and maybe it is a little bit to understand all of these different facets. But it's nothing anybody can't learn..

Auction market theory the relevance of the open the different open types.. VWAP on The daily weekly and monthly scale what bread crumbs does this leave of the overall market and how it behaves.

On the 5-minute chart ES 11:00 a.m. and 12:00 noon toss up a weekly VWAP....

Price failed on its first attempt through the vwap at 11:00.. and the market was kind enough to give a repeat setup at 12:00....

And sure enough a 40-point trade to its Target 1SD.

I can't even begin to explain how it feels to have a high level of confidence and clarity in the markets.
As I say timings levels behaviour of price..

Pay attention to the open..

Now on to the fun stuff... I've started a nano brewery at home.. I really enjoy the creativity.

Who knows maybe I'll take this to the micro level and a small batch production for retail.. ..
Por que no !!!

A peek at batch number 3 fermenting right now.


BULLSEYE BREWING: BATCH #003
Style: Oaked Jamaica Rosé Cider
Est ABV 11-12%

And that's the name of my Brew lab
Bullseye Brewing...


Cheers

Blues Bullseye Trading,,,,
jk


Doesnt get any easier than this. Crystal clear setups that pump the pts out
day in day out... THE ONLY VARIABLE IS YOU...not Blue

These are not even my original setups..I adapted from Chris Drysdale
Ive posted the pdf to the playbook here numerous times..If you take 5 minutes
look at it..Look at my charts you will get it.. Unless it hurts your ego
It's OK to take and learn and adapt others strategies..Combine them with your own take.

How many points could a trader have made today ? and today is not an outlier.
Auction Market Theory Volume Profile VWAP Initial Balance

It's you vs you..your the variable..

I wish you the best,,,

Hello Blues Bullseye Trading, I have been following your posts for sometime. The Existing levels and the PA on these levels during the active day. Though things seems super smooth in hindsight, but in active market, the mind keep playing its tricks. Forgive me if it sounds stupid to you as I am still learning , could you share some thoughts about ..1) How you define your levels ; 2) The parameters for entry ; 3)Any available strategy that one can learn and improvise based on one's own TF..

Thanks,
Happy Brewing

Hi John

I highly recommend reading downloading Chris Drysdales PDF on his 4 core setups... That can explain much better than me these setups...

He is more of a scalper but the setups remain the same...

Will be in the thread somewhere..the pdf that is.

Cheers !

A little bit more..Levels to me first and foremost are the Open then the Close and the High and Low...Mostly I am looking at the current and the previous days.
But it all depends on where price is... WHen I look at a chart for example the ES this morning...and this applies to all markets. The first thing I look at is where is
price in relation to the previous days Open and CLose...and it all drills down from there..Looking at Highs lows..Looking at Volume profile Levels and VWAP levels.

It may sound like a lot but its a point of toggling the appropriate indicators that display these off and on...It literally takes less than a minute to see where the
market is at,,,

The first question once I observe where the market is at...IS simply,,, Is the market Balanced or imbalanced ? and next question is for example the market is
OOB out of balance on the Session VWAP (DAily) I then look is the market OOB on the Weekly or the Monthly? Is it the same on the VP levels..Daily weekly Monthly.
All of this is simply framing where the market is at...That then dictates the setup..

4 basic setups are:
1)Price Discovery Continutation
2)VWAP Bounce
3)Return to Value
4)Fade Edge of Value.

THere are other setups but these are simple and more than enough tbh..Follow what Drysdale laid out in pdf..and adapt to yourself
as needed.

It's all fractal...THe VWAP I am referring too,,,, Many smaller scalp type setups off the Session VWAP levels and DAily or Session Vol PRo levels.
Weekly and Monthly give larger intraday trade setups.

Practice one or two setups...say Price Discovery Cont and VWAP bounce.. Write down the rules and post on your monitor...
Start taking them on a Demo Sim acct and track your progress...Your own personal variables will show up...Analyze them
and change whats needed...When you take the same setups over and over with the same rules that is the best way to fast track
oneself's trading to a positive outcome.

You have to be working from the same spot for the data to be relevant... I hope that makes sense.

Parameters for entry,,,your personal execution skills will dictate results here.. We can have the exact same
rules for entry and execution can be quite different..

In the pdf (I think) you will find Drysdale once a setup occurs just executes...waiting for confirmation is too late
when it comes to scalping (Most of the time) whats the definition of confirmation

If your rule says execute entry at the the first touch of the 1SD band/level then thats it...No waiting for a bullish candle
no waiting for nothing..Price touches you enter.

I do use confirmations on some setups ...Confirmation for example are a bullish candle close...Yesterday was a prime example
of that. 10am 11am and 12noon (ES) are examples of this.

Today on the ES:

From NFP thru the Open perfect Price Discovery shorts.. Execute on touch...One has to be cognizant that on each subsequent touch
probabilites lessen ..You have to observe the Behaviour of the market.

10 am we have a large engulfing reversal .. entries off the close of this 10am are most likely stopped out on next candle.
Observing the next two candles the only setup that presents is a RETURN to Value... (VWAP)
Now whether your entering on a 1 2 3 5 min candle the execution levels are all different.

I can tell you that was a 30pt trade on the 1min chart possibly more for some...Strict rule following it was 30pts...

I highly highly recommend following Chris Drysdales approach in his core setup guide...Then you will discover
what is and whats not working for you...

One of my other tools I use is The RoadMap setups...I use them in conjuction with VWAP and VP levels.

I didnt post this earlier but immedaitely after the NFP was textbook RoadMap Continuation trade that aligned
perfectly with Vwap PDC trade etc.

All of what I show has edge...RoadMap... VWAP VP IB etc.. The Variable is ourselves...as we simply dont execute the
same on entry and on exit... Therein lies the real difference.

Hope this all helps John and whomever else

Timings


PDC setups ( a "balanced" version )


PDC regular setups after NFP



RoadMap for a 40pt+ trade to start the day after NFP

The question is where does your money come from ?
What setups ?

Setups need to be graded..A+ on down...
Size is allocated to the A+

We dont know what are A+ setups are until we have enough trades under our belt
to figure that out...and to figure that out you need to be executing the same trades
consistently... Thats where VidVads thread PriceBob shines...Its basically Mark Douglas
20 trade exercise...Maybe it takes multiple runs of 100 trades to start seeing patterns.

RoadMap this morning was A+.... Why ?

Well Price was out of balance on the Daily and on the weekly price was on the edge of value,
NFP pushed OOB then price reverted to the 1SD....What confirmed a A+ trade for me was
that AS WELL Price was BELOW the Current Months and Weeks VP VAL
AND price was below Prev Days VAL...Price had pushed below these levels and come back
and tested them with price rejecting them..this WAS ALL KNOWN before the
RoadMap/PDC short setup occured... There is only one way to trade and its not long.

The market is literally screaming short. Until proven otherwise shorts are the play.

Their is zero hindsight,,there is only foresight from first seeing your setups occur thru
backtesting and then forward testing..then thru execution of those setups.
hundreds and thousands of times.
That builds confidence and clarity....foresight

OK time to goto the Brew supply store ...

Cheers !!!

No trading for me today...sitting on my hands until at least tommorrow.
I see Crude Oil futures the Daytrading margins are double Maintenance !!! hahaha
15k for 1 CL contract ! Maintenance is $7500
All energies are running at double maintenance,,which I guess is understandable.
Trying perhaps to limit those who like to play with fire then bitch they got burnt lol
Gold is 10k Daily Silver 32.5k

All to trade 1 contract.

Havent traded any of these for awhile now anyways,,,But the more I just solely
trade the ES,,,,I am about ready to delete all charts and templates of those markets.

ES is more than enough...far far far...
If indices go haywire then its Soybeans for me...smooooth markets beans...

Spent the day in the brew lab..Did up 9 different small batches and find myself
needing to buy more growler jugs wife is thrilled

A new week lets go !

I totally forgot one thing ..
Here in British Columbia no more daylight savings Time. That's it year round the clock stay the same from here on in... Yippeee