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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,001
  • Aug 24, 2007 9:50am Aug 24, 2007 9:50am
Any buyer at this level here?
  • #2,002
  • Edited 2:34pm Aug 24, 2007 10:07am | Edited 2:34pm
Bob says down mark these words.

P.S heres something a very wise trader once said:

"I looked for diamond tops and bottoms but all I found was Zirconium"

LOL
  • #2,003
  • Aug 24, 2007 7:13pm Aug 24, 2007 7:13pm
I think the 1.0465 - 1.0490 zone is pretty strong resistance, so as long as 1.0465 stays in tact then going long would be the best bet. Best risk/reward at this point.

If 1.0465 is broken then 1.0342 is in play...

I'm long at 1.0480 with a S/L at 1.0440.
Risking 40 pips for MANY pips!

-Dickens
  • #2,004
  • Aug 26, 2007 10:40pm Aug 26, 2007 10:40pm
Usd/Cad
Trade Results -

( Price did not reach the intended targets )
----------------------------------------------------------

How can you as a trader be right every time with these set-ups ?.......
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-8-21-2007-#1.gif Size: 65 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-8-26-2007-#1.gif Size: 64 KB
  • #2,005
  • Aug 27, 2007 1:27am Aug 27, 2007 1:27am
marketwavez: Those are long shots not set ups. If we pay attention to everything that is FACT about this pair we can see that it's simply not safe to trade:

1. USD has not reached its bottom

2. This is absolutely NO MOMENTUM going on.

3. Long term trend is down, short term is just flat.
  • #2,006
  • Aug 27, 2007 4:29am Aug 27, 2007 4:29am
Quoting bobblong
marketwavez: Those are long shots not set ups. If we pay attention to everything that is FACT about this pair we can see that it's simply not safe to trade:

1. USD has not reached its bottom

2. This is absolutely NO MOMENTUM going on.

3. Long term trend is down, short term is just flat.
The low for this year was 103.41, and that only happened a month ago. it might find support at this level perhaps?
  • #2,007
  • Aug 27, 2007 5:54am Aug 27, 2007 5:54am
Quoting bobblong
marketwavez: Those are long shots not set ups. If we pay attention to everything that is FACT about this pair we can see that it's simply not safe to trade:

1. USD has not reached its bottom

2. This is absolutely NO MOMENTUM going on.

3. Long term trend is down, short term is just flat.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Trading is all about Probabilty !

and more importantly ,

Trading is about Averages , and your ability to Manage Risk !

[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[

Who among us gets it right every time , even when there is momentum ?.....
  • #2,008
  • Aug 27, 2007 6:11am Aug 27, 2007 6:11am
Quoting marketwavez
-----------------------------------------------------------
Trading is all about Probabilty !
If you understand probability, then you should know those are low probability "setups"

Odds are heavily stacked against a long position yet you're telling me "Trading is about probability" without actually knowing what that means?
  • #2,009
  • Aug 27, 2007 7:04am Aug 27, 2007 7:04am
Quoting bobblong
If you understand probability, then you should know those are low probability "setups"

Odds are heavily stacked against a long position yet you're telling me "Trading is about probability" without actually knowing what that means?
i concur!
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #2,010
  • Edited 8:43am Aug 27, 2007 7:32am | Edited 8:43am
Quoting bobblong
If you understand probability, then you should know those are low probability "setups"

Odds are heavily stacked against a long position yet you're telling me "Trading is about probability" without actually knowing what that means?
sure I know what it means -

I don't get every trade setup right ! ........ I am no Guru !
- Do you know anyone who does ?

---------------------------------------------------------
Here is the last 3 trades that I posted in this thread ......
So you see the Averages ( There are others in here also )
No Hindsite ! .........Click link to see chart set-up

Now Let's go back and see some of your high probability trades

1st Trade - 7/26/07 ............ Gain of 92 pips
Original Post #1710
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1185507106
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1185507156

2nd Trade - 8/15/07 ............ Gain of 200 pips
Original Post #1944
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1187157297
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1187746395
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1187746464

3rd Trade - 8/21/07 ............ Loss of 35 pips
Original Post #2004
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1187746686
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1188186116

4th Trade - 8/26/07 .............( Open Trade )
See Trade set-up charts below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-8-26-2007-#2.gif Size: 79 KB
  • #2,011
  • Aug 27, 2007 8:51am Aug 27, 2007 8:51am
Quoting marketwavez
sure I know what it means -

I don't get every trade setup right ! ........ I am no Guru !
- Do you know anyone who does ?

---------------------------------------------------------
Here is the last 3 trades that I posted in this thread ......
So you see the Averages ( There are others in here also )
No Hindsite ! .........Click link to see chart set-up

Now Let's go back and see some of your high probability trades

1st Trade - 7/26/07 ............ Gain of 92 pips
Original Post #1710
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1185507106
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1185507156

2nd Trade - 8/15/07 ............ Gain of 200 pips
Original Post #1944
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1187157297
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1187746395
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1187746464

3rd Trade - 8/21/07 ............ Loss of 35 pips
Original Post #2004
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1187746686
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1188186116

4th Trade - 8/26/07 .............( Open Trade )
See Trade set-up charts below
Hi marketwavez, what's your 4th open trade? I can't see it on your chart.
  • #2,012
  • Aug 27, 2007 10:28am Aug 27, 2007 10:28am
Quoting mirdaniel
Hi marketwavez, what's your 4th open trade? I can't see it on your chart.
Go Here :

Here it is again -
( Double Click on the chart image below ) .... .....
---------------------------------------------------
Remember this is only a Probability .
- I'm only sharing with you what I think is happening in the Usd/Cad

If you disagree , That's Ok

Just post your chart and state your case ........

Time will then tell all !...............
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-8-26-2007-#2.gif Size: 79 KB
  • #2,013
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:32am Aug 27, 2007 11:32am
Quoting marketwavez
Go Here :

Here it is again -
( Double Click on the chart image below ) .... .....
---------------------------------------------------
Remember this is only a Probability .
- I'm only sharing with you what I think is happening in the Usd/Cad

If you disagree , That's Ok

Just post your chart and state your case ........

Time will then tell all !...............

Hi marketwavez,
your 3rd trade was an ABC off the low with A=C => 1.0800 but how did you get the second target? Both 138.2% and 161.8% were a lot higher and I saw on your chart you initially had an a lot higher secondary target in the chart as well.

Just curious.

Take care, SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,014
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:36am Aug 27, 2007 11:36am
Quoting marketwavez
Go Here :

Here it is again -
( Double Click on the chart image below ) .... .....
---------------------------------------------------
Remember this is only a Probability .
- I'm only sharing with you what I think is happening in the Usd/Cad

If you disagree , That's Ok

Just post your chart and state your case ........

Time will then tell all !...............
Good work marketwavez! I agree, although I will cash in at around 1.0565 a little bit lower than yours. Later on I beleive it will go downwards to test quite easily 1.0340 the multi year low... maybe after the interest rate decision next week sept. 5th ? Eventhough no change is expected, Mr. Dodge statement can move the whole thing. What do you think?
  • #2,015
  • Aug 27, 2007 11:58am Aug 27, 2007 11:58am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hi marketwavez,
your 3rd trade was an ABC off the low with A=C => 1.0800 but how did you get the second target? Both 138.2% and 161.8% were a lot higher and I saw on your chart you initially had an a lot higher secondary target in the chart as well.

Just curious.

Take care, SeekingLight
Hi SeekingLight. Do you beleive a test soon or even a break of the multi year low 1.0340?
  • #2,016
  • Aug 27, 2007 1:55pm Aug 27, 2007 1:55pm
Quoting mirdaniel
Good work marketwavez! I agree, although I will cash in at around 1.0565 a little bit lower than yours. Later on I beleive it will go downwards to test quite easily 1.0340 the multi year low... maybe after the interest rate decision next week sept. 5th ? Eventhough no change is expected, Mr. Dodge statement can move the whole thing. What do you think?
Well I'm watching to see what Bobblong has to say
about the markets direction today ..........
I think he is saying what youre' saying from his earlier posts today .
---------------------------------------------------------- --------------
  • #2,017
  • Aug 27, 2007 2:00pm Aug 27, 2007 2:00pm
Quoting mirdaniel
Hi SeekingLight. Do you beleive a test soon or even a break of the multi year low 1.0340?
Heck I don't know ahead of time before it happens
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,018
  • Aug 27, 2007 2:10pm Aug 27, 2007 2:10pm
USD/CAD ? Looks like it's going to continue ranging like a bitch as it has been doing. The fact that it may get to 1.0560 does not indicate direction of any kind to me. I'm not even trading the pair right now. That's 40 pips from open... hmm? Most pairs just took a breather to retrace (E/U,U/J, G/Y, A/U...etc) and now on the same course they were during last week (making bob a very happy puppy). If you want to trade a 40 pip retracement with a similar stoploss that is entirely your concern..

However pay attention to what mrdaniel said, it's a good idea to look out for bearish price action (You will PROBABLY see a pinbar much like the one you are playing now) around that level if it even gets there, then look for a break & close below the 1.0480 support.
THEN we have direction.
  • #2,019
  • Aug 27, 2007 2:27pm Aug 27, 2007 2:27pm
Seeking Light -

What is this James 16 Group ?
........ can you send me a PM explaining please ........
------------------------------------------------------
Is it an Elliott Waves group ?


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  • #2,020
  • Aug 27, 2007 2:33pm Aug 27, 2007 2:33pm
quite a good advance from 10475 this afternoon. i was expecting a pullback. glad i had no position open...
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