Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

NZDUSD following same pattern starting with monthly

USDJPY starting with weekly with inside candles

GBPNZD starting with monthly

AUDJPY starting with weekly

AUDNZD weekly fib on line chart

PASR on DOW M1, slamming the 200 on H1:

I discovered this thread a couple of weeks ago and have been devouring it - thank you all members past and present for your contributions. I realise no-one has posted for a month, but I wanted to continue and show some of my initial (demo) trades using the method on the HTF - I plan to open a small live account next week. I am replaying on TradingView to show the situation on each chart when the trade was taken.

My initial thoughts on these HTF trades:
- Correlation risk: they are 3 bets on AUD strength and could collapse if AUD were to come under pressure
- Stop size: the stops are large – 80 to 160 pips – I need to consider ways to reduce to improve R:R
- Trade management: on AUDNZD I tried a partial exit at resistance and then price spiked to the next resistance at 1.22 before dropping back - could have been another good time to have partially exited while holding a stub through drawdown. Indeed the current price action could suggest an add if price closes above the hammer

I am also trying some M5 trades, so far all losses or breakeven, which I'll post separately - much more difficult but also enjoying the challenge. I am based in Europe so looking to trade the London Open. On walk away analysis, I am tending to get the base currency right but the pair wrong and also exiting too quickly instead of holding through a small drawdown - but will leave that to another post.

AUDNZD (30th March)
BB
Strat Shadow: uptrend, positive
Price Structure:
- Broken out of resistance 1.144 in December 2025
- Current upswing started in April 2025



B
Strat Shadow: uptrend, positive
Price Structure:
- Price made several confirmed higher swing lows
- Price hit 1.208 resistance and reversed off shooting star





W
Strat Shadow: uptrend, positive
Price Structure:
- Price reversal stalled at 20EMA at resistance turned support 1.195 and formed BUEB/BUOB



Plan
- Buy stop at 1.201 – 6 pips above BUEB and was filled
- Stop loss at 1.1924 (86 pips) – 6 pips below BUEB
- Take basic PASR partial exit 1.208, and then hold until reverse PASR

Current Situation
- Market order exit at 1.21095 on 6th April for half of position following inside bar above 1.208
- Currently holding the rest with 80 pips running profit. Stop loss moved to breakeven




AUDUSD (31st March)
BB
Strat Shadow: downtrend, but turned positive
Price Structure:
- Broadly ranging between ~0.620 and 0.800
- Extended downward trend line from June 2014 to February 2021
- Price started current uptrend swing off a hammer in April 2025
- Made a confirmed higher swing low in November 2025
- Broke intermediate resistance turned support of ~0.685, trend line and closed above Strat Shadow in January 2025


B
Strat Shadow: uptrend, positive
Price Structure:
- Price pushed away from 20EMA and now executing a complex pullback
- Created a confirmed higher swing high
- Price reacted to support at 0.685


W
Strat Shadow: uptrend, negative
Price Structure: price bounced off both trend line and 0.685 support to form BUEB on 31st March 2026



Plan
- Buy stop at 0.69080 – 3 pips above BUEB and was filled
- Stop loss at 0.68300 (78 pips) – 4 pips below BUEB
- Take basic PASR partial exit 0.712, and then hold until reverse PASR

Current Situation
- Running 150 pips in profit


AUDJPY (1st April)
BB
Strat Shadow: uptrend, positive
Price Structure:
- Price at all time high on my chart
- Price started current upswing off April 2025 confirmed higher low
- Formed unconfirmed shooting star in March 2025 above previous resistance of ~107.00



B
Strat Shadow: uptrend, positive
Price Structure:
- Smooth uptrend with slight resistance at 108.5
- Price reversed off inside bar towards 108.5 resistance turned support



W
Strat Shadow: uptrend, negative
Price Structure:
- Price reversal detail shows HH formed at 113.7 resistance followed by BEOB LH and then countertrend swing to the 72 EMA
- Price closes in on 108.5 / BRN 109.0 support
- Hammer appears and is confirmed with price closing inside the shadow again above the 72 EMA


Plan
- Buy stop at 110.319, 10 pips above candle – filled
- Stop loss at 108.682 (164 pips), 10 pips below candle
- Take basic PASR partial exit at 113.7, and then hold until reverse PASR

Current Situation
- Running 206 pips in profit

First, updates on last week's demo trades and then I'll do another post on new trades taken this week. I have added entry and exit arrows for clarity.

Biggest issue I have identified this week in my trading is that I didn't do add-ons with winning trades. Secondly I didn't follow my plan perfectly on AUDJPY as I partially exited early in fear. I will try to focus on both of these this next week

AUDNZD (30th March) - partially exited, 1.4x R:R running
Original Plan: Take basic PASR partial exit 1.208, and then hold until reverse PASR
I followed my plan and took first partial exit at IB at local resistance, then second partial exit at reversal BEEB - I wanted to hold the rest through the swing
There was a possible BUEB add-on that I didn't take.
On walk-away analysis, following the BEEB, the counter trend move had significantly less momentum than the uptrend preceding it, with small candles and tails until the 20MA.


AUDUSD (31st March) - fully exited, 3.0x R:R
Original Plan: Take basic PASR partial exit 0.712, and then hold until reverse PASR
I followed my plan and partially exited 50% of the position at resistance and wanted to hold the rest for continuation. I then exited the rest of the position at reversal SS.
Were a couple of possible add-on opportunities at the two BUOBs that I didn't take.
On walk-away analysis, the last bar printed was a second SS rejection forming a double top on the lower time frames indicating bearish sentiment.


AUDJPY (1st April) - partially exited, 5.0x R:R running
Original Plan: Take basic PASR partial exit at 113.7, and then hold until reverse PASR
I didn't follow my plan as while I took 50% partial exit, it was early (at 113.1) and price did in fact continue up to 113.7 resistance. Most recent bar has posted BEEB/BEOB so will partial exit another 25% at open.
Stop has been moved several times, firstly under confirmed swing lows, and, most recently, under the previous bar to protect position.
There were no add-ons on this trade as, at the first BUOB after entry, my primary entry was not at B/E.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

One losing trade that I forgot to post last week is important to post here too - in hindsight, a lot of items that demonstrate this was not a high quality trade from the start.

NZDUSD (3rd April) - stop loss, (1.0x) R:R
BB
Strat Shadow: downtrend, negative
Price Structure:
- Price ranging between 0.61 (tested twice) and 0.56
- Made a higher low in November 2025 [hindsight: warning sign!]


B
Strat Shadow: Flat and twisting
Price Structure:
- Price halfway between S&R levels [hindsight: warning sign!]
- Price approaching uptrend trend line [hindsight: warning sign!]



W
Strat Shadow: downtrend, negative
Price Structure:
- Downtrend LHs visible here
- Clear break of 0.581 support, but huge directional candles reversing continously beforehand
- BEEB off the 9EMA


Plan
- Sell stop at 0.56950, 4 pips below candle – filled
- Stop loss at 0.57820 (87 pips), 5 pips above candle
- Take basic PASR full exit at 0.56

Many issues with this trade in hindsight including:
- On W, price had not truly pulled back (only to the 9EMA, not even 20EMA) compared to previous pullbacks, the BEEB was a floater and not on any specific S&R that I had identified, and I was selling into support (S&R as well as trend line)
- On B/BB, trend line was clearly up in recent price action and even if taking a basic PASR trade, the move was already half done (between S&R) and not being taken from a place of low-risk safety
- Risk/Reward to major support was only 1.0x

Post trade the next candle was in the direction but small relative to its predecessors and the candle after that was a BUOB which would have been a better exit point. After that there was clearly no momentum in the bearish direction, indicating trend reversal.

There were no new trades w/c 6th April. One new trade from w/c 13th April:

EURUSD (17th April)
BB
Strat Shadow: Uptrend, positive
Price Structure:
- Price is in a longer term compressing coil
- More recently, price has been in a tight range between 1.14 and 1.18 resistances


B
Strat Shadow: Uptrend, positive
Price Structure:
- Shooting star at trend line and 1.18 resistance, followed by downswing and retest


W
Strat Shadow: Downtrend, positive and crossing
Price Structure:
- BEEB at trend line and 1.18 resistance


Plan
- This is a riskier basic PASR (demo) trade against the BB and B which I wanted to try out
- Sell stop at 1.17640, 3 pips below candle – filled
- Stop loss at 1.18250 (61 pips), 1 pip above candle
- Take basic PASR partial exit at 1.16 and full exit at 1.14

No new trades w/c 20th April. See below updates on previous trades.

I have now opened a £100 OANDA live account for future trades.

Next week I will do an end of month April review.

AUDNZD (30th March) - fully exited, 1.2x R:R
Original Plan: Take basic PASR partial exit 1.208, and then hold until reverse PASR
Management so far: I followed my plan and took first partial exit at IB at local resistance, then second partial exit at reversal BEEB - I wanted to hold the rest through the swing
I fully exited the position on reversal PASR (BEOB at 1.22 resistance) on 21st April. It is also an unconfirmed lower swing high.


AUDJPY (1st April) - fully exited, 5.0x R:R
Original Plan: Take basic PASR partial exit at 113.7, and then hold until reverse PASR
Management so far: I didn't follow my plan as while I took 50% partial exit, it was early (at 113.1) and price did in fact continue up to 113.7 resistance. Most recent bar has posted BEEB/BEOB so will partial exit another 25% at open
I fully exited the position on reversal PASR (BEEB at 113.7 resistance) on 23rd April. Had previously been a BEOB at 113.7 which I had held through, but this BEEB occured at an unconfirmed lower swing high which reduced by conviction in a move higher.
This is still a pair with strong B and BB so looking for a strong retracement and PASR to re-enter.


EURUSD (17th April) - full position, 0.7x R:R running
Original Plan: This is a riskier basic PASR (demo) trade against the BB and B which I wanted to try out. Take basic PASR partial exit at 1.16 and full exit at 1.14
Trade went in my direction initially. There was a possible add opportunity at the BEOB which I didn't take. Last bar was a BUEB at the 20EMA and at minor local support of the low of the large bullish directional bar of 13th April, which gives me pause - I have tightened my stop to just above the BEOB, though still slightly in above B/E to give the trade room to move. Given there doesn't appear to be major support at 1.16650, I am holding for now, but if there is further price action against my position, I will fully exit.

I am now trading my live account, so will post my trades as I take them. Today 1 trade entered and 1 trade with stop entry.

EURUSD (27th April)
Setup: Same analysis and bias as before. On PASR we have a shooting star at minor resistance 1.1725. It is an unconfirmed low high and has bounced off the descending trend line. Positive swap on short.
Plan:
- Sell stop of 208 units (1% risk) @ 1.1695 (5 pips below low). Oanda's overnight spread on this pair tends to go to around 10 pips, so there is 20 pips of buffer.
- Stop loss @ 1.176 (5 pips above high)
- Management: As before aim to take 1/2 partial profits at 1.16 support and move stop to B/E. Then fully exit at 1.15-1.1525 or as low as 1.14 depending on price action. Tighten SL if goes in my direction but then reversal PA before B/E. Trail stop loss on confirmed swing highs.


AUDJPY (27th April)
Setup: Same analysis and bias as before. On PASR we have a BUEB at major resistance turned support of 113.7. Positive swap on long.
Correlation: I was considering between this pair or AUDCAD and decided on this one due to smoother upward trend and higher positive swap
Plan:
- Market entry of 220 units (1% risk) @ 114.579. I took market entry as Oanda's overnight spreads on this pair can be as high as 25 pips and so would have been entered at a worse price if I used stop entry. Also entering before 5pm NY close to receive positive swap of ~3%.
- Stop loss @ 113.6 (10 pips below low)
- Management: Pair is at an all time high on my chart. Take 1/3 partial profits at 1:1 and move stop to break even. As before take further partial profits on reversal PA. Trail stop loss on confirmed swing lows.

EURUSD (27th April) - closed at (0.3x) R:R
Original Plan:
- Sell stop of 208 units (1% risk) @ 1.1695 (5 pips below low). Oanda's overnight spread on this pair tends to go to around 10 pips, so there is 20 pips of buffer.
- Stop loss @ 1.176 (5 pips above high)
- Management: As before aim to take 1/2 partial profits at 1.16 support and move stop to B/E. Then fully exit at 1.15-1.1525 or as low as 1.14 depending on price action. Tighten SL if goes in my direction but then reversal PA before B/E. Trail stop loss on confirmed swing highs.
Closed the position due to bullish hammer PASR at 50EMA and HL (more easily seen on this 4H chart)

Interesting charting, seems like you have a pretty good handle on the process.

Here is another take on the AUDUSD using the monthly significant levels and dropping down to the boss and worker.