Why Smart Traders Watch the First Hour (Initial Balance Guide) | Page 15 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

4 hour strategy (the nausbot - 4 hour trader) 25 replies

Why does 4 hour bar close 1 hour later than daily bar? 6 replies

average true range for 1 hour and 4 hour charts 2 replies

X-1102 1 hour , 4 hour and daily Tf trades 7 replies

Create a verticle line at certain hour for every certain hour 16 replies

Attachments: Why Smart Traders Watch the First Hour (Initial Balance Guide)
Exit Attachments

Why Smart Traders Watch the First Hour (Initial Balance Guide)

  • #281
  • Feb 24, 2026 10:20am Feb 24, 2026 10:20am
I will repeat this one more time as this took me 5 years of studying, researching, training my brains and now 5 years trading live at +100% a year with large accounts.

Importance of:
Entry = 10%
Money Management in the trade = 40%
Controlling your MindFuck(Fear and Greed) = 50%

For controlling Mindfuck I will add one thing...Trader will never be successful in a long run thinking about R:R as 1:1,2:1, etc...

You must take from the market what market gives..take a look at my charts, 90% of the time I am going for 200 points or more.

How to do that? Money Management, which is 40% of the whole business.

That is how you make a good money, not peanuts(if not losing compeltely).
  • #282
  • Edited 12:33pm Feb 24, 2026 10:34am | Edited 12:33pm
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} Oh ok I think I see what you mean.
Glad you taking it the right way.... No One gives a fuck about your excuses except you(and that is a mindfuck mistake) ...you either In or Out.

95% of losing traders is a very proper statistics, 95% of traders will be Out not because they are bad humans, but because of Mindfuck and inability to work for years figuring out Money Management statistics.

As far as your technique, I had bad trade -180, good trade +180 and scalped 50 points, just to walk away today with something in the morning..now, continue to the next trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 14 KB
  • #283
  • Edited 2:21pm Feb 24, 2026 1:45pm | Edited 2:21pm
I am on the roll today (rolling )...so sort of giving back.

Here is February equity line for my other strategy, 146 trades, -12% DD, +35% in Profit.

I had 2 consecutive wins and 8 consecutive losses. This is what real live trading looks like after 10 years of trading(5 years demo and small lots, 5 years live with 100+% per year).

Yes, to make a good money, one must withstand 12% DD at times and 8 consecutive losses(circled) and continue believing and trade your strategy.

Trading is my business and my greatest hobby, therefore I fuck with other techniques. No golf yet for me .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 25 KB
  • #284
  • Feb 24, 2026 4:43pm Feb 24, 2026 4:43pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} {quote} Data: NDX https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-NDX/ 2023-01-01 to date Found 375 bullish IBs. Verify that identification is correct: {image} {image} High breaks first in 72% of cases. But it's false optimism, one should look at IB's upper wick size. Suppose it's intraday strategy so we'll analyze next 6 hours. {image} x-axis represents the maximum profit from the entry point within observation period y-axis - drawdawn Green dots - instances where the maximum favorable excursion was reached before the maximum adverse...
W0lfram quick question, all of these backtests and statistics that you get are using TradingView and Pine Script correct? Is Pine Script and TradingView better for this type of work compared to Python? Just asking because I'm currently testing with Python but Python is relying on a CSV exported from MetaTrader 5, of 15 minute candles which is about as low of a timeframe as I can go in order to go back to at least 2021.
  • #285
  • Edited Feb 25, 2026 5:37am Feb 24, 2026 5:20pm | Edited Feb 25, 2026 5:37am
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} W0lfram quick question, all of these backtests and statistics that you get are using TradingView and Pine Script correct? Is Pine Script and TradingView better for this type of work compared to Python? Just asking because I'm currently testing with Python but Python is relying on a CSV exported from MetaTrader 5, of 15 minute candles which is about as low of a timeframe as I can go in order to go back to at least 2021.
Hi eadweardcap,
that analysis was done in Wolfram Mathematica with csv data from TV https://pypi.org/project/tradingview-datafeed/
TV is good for quick visual tests (at least that's how I mostly use Pinescript) bc of its cloud based timeseries... can't imagine some deep analysis using .pine
Py is definitely better

I have 1 min data for NASDAQ back to 2010 (but a lot of gaps back then), you can compile it to any TF you want to.
If you need it, I'll try to upload it here

edit: I found where I got 1min data https://github.com/philipperemy/FX-1-Minute-Data - ~16GiB all symbols
Air force
  • #286
  • Feb 25, 2026 5:30am Feb 25, 2026 5:30am
I'm not as techy as Mr W0lfram , but I've been using the Python + CSV route too. I'm a bit of a with the Github stuff but will take a look at W0lfram's link too.

As an alternative, to build your own data sets, you can get a 14 day trail for tick data here -

https://eareview.net/tick-data-suite

I found that quite useful. You can go back 20 years or more and download. Then decide what TF you want it in and timezone (I think it's mostly GMT(UST)+2, so US open would be 14:30 but you can change it before outputting to M1 to EST if you want NY start at 9:30). Tick files are huge obviously and I wasn't too concerned with that accuracy but I do think you need to go M1 instead of M15, especially for a morning breakout system as price can move about fast and the sequence of moves is lost in the M15 candle. Then I think Claude was blocking me on files much over 20mb so I could test the last 2 years or so in Claude and if I wanted a longer backtest just get Claude to spit out the Python code for offline analysis.

Oh, the other point was that I THINK the M1 datasets posted by W (although very useful) go up to Jan 2022. so the tick data suite would let you test on data up to to yesterday. W- do you know of anyone that updates the M1 datasets on a regular basis ?
  • #287
  • Feb 25, 2026 6:12am Feb 25, 2026 6:12am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
I'm not as techy as Mr W0lfram , but I've been using the Python + CSV route too. I'm a bit of a with the Github stuff but will take a look at W0lfram's link too. As an alternative, to build your own data sets, you can get a 14 day trail for tick data here - https://eareview.net/tick-data-suite I found that quite useful. You can go back 20 years or more and download. Then decide what TF you want it in and timezone (I think it's mostly GMT(UST)+2, so US open would be 14:30 but you can change it before...
Hey DM,
that library from git is a wrapper of Dukascopy or something, when I downloaded it last month I got data for Jan'26 as well - which was a redundant thing obviously, we can use mt5 for that. Or TV library for any broker/Futures/... up there

There is also tick data, but I haven't tried, it's too heavy.
Imo fx ticks are more for Data Science projects, for blazing fast scalping algos -> crypto or Level 2 data from CME for Futures - they mostly work with DOM, not ticks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8IhSqDWvg9.png Size: 6 KB
Air force
  • #288
  • Feb 25, 2026 10:33am Feb 25, 2026 10:33am
Today's trades. Break even on S&P 500 but ended up leaving money on the table. Don't want to be in the markets with today's NVDIA earnings coming out. Back to the python testing!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2026-02-25 113120.png Size: 33 KB
  • #289
  • Feb 25, 2026 10:34am Feb 25, 2026 10:34am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Hi eadweardcap, that analysis was done in Wolfram Mathematica with csv data from TV https://pypi.org/project/tradingview-datafeed/ TV is good for quick visual tests (at least that's how I mostly use Pinescript) bc of its cloud based timeseries... can't imagine some deep analysis using .pine Py is definitely better I have 1 min data for NASDAQ back to 2010 (but a lot of gaps back then), you can compile it to any TF you want to. If you need it, I'll try to upload it here edit: I found where I got 1min data https://github.com/philipperemy/FX-1-Minute-Data...
This is great man thank you!
  • #290
  • Feb 25, 2026 10:34am Feb 25, 2026 10:34am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
I'm not as techy as Mr W0lfram , but I've been using the Python + CSV route too. I'm a bit of a with the Github stuff but will take a look at W0lfram's link too. As an alternative, to build your own data sets, you can get a 14 day trail for tick data here - https://eareview.net/tick-data-suite I found that quite useful. You can go back 20 years or more and download. Then decide what TF you want it in and timezone (I think it's mostly GMT(UST)+2, so US open would be 14:30 but you can change it before...
Donwloaded S&P 500 1M data. Thank you! Going to test now!
  • #291
  • Feb 25, 2026 11:11am Feb 25, 2026 11:11am
Quoting eadweardcap
Today's trades. Break even on S&P 500 but ended up leaving money on the table. Don't want to be in the markets with today's NVDIA earnings coming out. Back to the python testing! {image}
Excuse blah blah blah (in bold). Fundamentals are totally meaningless as extra TMI and contribution to MindFuck. I will leave it at that. You know what I mean.
  • #292
  • Feb 25, 2026 11:18am Feb 25, 2026 11:18am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Excuse blah blah blah (in bold). Fundamentals are totally meaningless as extra TMI and contribution to MindFuck. I will leave it at that. You know what I mean.
cool
  • #293
  • Feb 26, 2026 9:05am Feb 26, 2026 9:05am
Today's trades. Two shorts on S&P500 and Nasdaq and one long on the Dow Jones. All done for the day!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2026-02-26 100204.png Size: 32 KB
  • #294
  • Feb 26, 2026 9:23am Feb 26, 2026 9:23am
Decided to trade shorter TPs today, all based on volatility and momentum of PA plus sound MM and control of Mindfuck to execute my plan,

Captured 220 points, +4.2%.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 12 KB
  • #295
  • Feb 26, 2026 9:25am Feb 26, 2026 9:25am
Quoting eadweardcap
Today's trades. Two shorts on S&P500 and Nasdaq and one long on the Dow Jones. All done for the day! {image}
hey I know this most likely isn’t usual on this site anymore but I’m a new to trading just now taking it serious after a year of procrastinating just graduated any tips or rules every trader should follow & any feedback would be greatly appreciated
  • #296
  • Feb 26, 2026 9:55am Feb 26, 2026 9:55am
Quoting Gottiiiiiiii
{quote} hey I know this most likely isn’t usual on this site anymore but I’m a new to trading just now taking it serious after a year of procrastinating just graduated any tips or rules every trader should follow & any feedback would be greatly appreciated
Tell you what, I'll give you financial planning advice instead. This applies whether you're doing a retail trading account, a hands-off investment or retirement account (by hands off I mean hiring a financial advisor and doing like a brokerage account through your bank ect.)

Invest money that you're willing to loose. How do you do that?

1. Manage your budget. Know how much your income is and how much you're spending.
2. Take your fixed expenses (like rent, mortgage, internet, cellphone, everything that stays the same month after month) add your variable expenses (going out to eat, groceries, clothing, travel). Once you've added these two things, multiply by 6. This will be your emergency funds. ALWAYS have emergency funds.

Fixed Expenses + Variable Expenses x 6 = Emergency Funds

3. Invest whatever money you have above emergency funds.

Example:
- Income: $5,000/mo
- All in Expenses: - $4,000/mo
- Discretionary: $1,000/mo

Emergency Savings: $4,000 x 6 = $24,000 (This should be liquid)

Once you have those $24,000, anything you save above those $24,000 you can invest them. Whether it's retail trading, retirement or investment.

Does that make sense? I can overcomplicate explanations.
  • #297
  • Feb 26, 2026 10:08am Feb 26, 2026 10:08am
Yes this make sense absolutely sticking my head in the business industry itself later on in life,I’m currently trying to learn the markets understand liquidity candlesticks etc any people you recommend and I appreciate you taking the time out to reply thank you so much
  • #298
  • Feb 26, 2026 10:09am Feb 26, 2026 10:09am
Quoting Gottiiiiiiii
{quote} hey I know this most likely isn’t usual on this site anymore but I’m a new to trading just now taking it serious after a year of procrastinating just graduated any tips or rules every trader should follow & any feedback would be greatly appreciated
My second little piece of advise is start small and simple. One small and simple strategy is just dollar cost averaging indexes. Position trading or swing trading indexes since they have a more clear long term trend than FX or commodities.
  • #299
  • Feb 26, 2026 10:19am Feb 26, 2026 10:19am
Quoting Gottiiiiiiii
Yes this make sense absolutely sticking my head in the business industry itself later on in life,I’m currently trying to learn the markets understand liquidity candlesticks etc any people you recommend and I appreciate you taking the time out to reply thank you so much
Liquidity candles? Yeah no, we dont do that in this thread.

That doesnt mean that the whole ICT thing is a scam. For some reason it works for some people, personally I don't do any of that and in fact my goal is to make everything so simple that it can be coded and deployed.
  • #300
  • Feb 26, 2026 10:22am Feb 26, 2026 10:22am
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} My second little piece of advise is start small and simple. One small and simple strategy is just dollar cost averaging indexes. Position trading or swing trading indexes since they have a more clear long term trend than FX or commodities.
honestly trading now and days is so saturated I truly don’t know where to start when it comes to advice I’ve been looking into ict tjr usual suggestions but if you have any hidden gems I’m open to it 100%
1 trader viewing now