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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #15,521
  • Aug 24, 2007 6:13pm Aug 24, 2007 6:13pm
Quoting Zoran
Karmo, Karmo. Now you've made me do some work my friend!

I was with you (long) until the end of session. I posted my chart about 10 hours ago. Now I am short because we have a butterfly formation. Charts and info attached and something to digest over the weekend.

The bearish butterfly CD leg is valid up to 161.8% level (of XA) and we have just passed the 138.2 level (my target) . So my stop will be above the 161.8% (235.10) and I have entered short already (adding as we go up).

So risking 90 pippies for many hundreds. Good weekend.

Z
Well, it uses all kind of Fibs numbers. Probably makes sense. But the current trend is still quite strong. Let's see next week.
  • #15,522
  • Aug 24, 2007 6:22pm Aug 24, 2007 6:22pm
Quoting mktjong
Well, it uses all kind of Fibs numbers. Probably makes sense. But the current trend is still quite strong. Let's see next week.
OK, time for bed here. Now I hear what you are saying, but look at my Guppy1.jpg chart again. Volume is quite low on the rise so the trend is actually not as strong as you think. We shall see next week.
  • #15,523
  • Aug 24, 2007 7:04pm Aug 24, 2007 7:04pm
Technical Analysis aside, I think we have to place more weight on trade sentiment. Are investors still risk-averse? If the credit woes have been calmed and investors are ready for risk again then we will most likely see the carry trade rocket up to new highs.

-Dickens
  • #15,524
  • Aug 24, 2007 7:54pm Aug 24, 2007 7:54pm
Aren't we getting a CLASSIC long entry according to Auslanco's system RIGHT NOW?

C'mon, c'mon, Sunday Afternoon!!!
  • #15,525
  • Aug 24, 2007 8:13pm Aug 24, 2007 8:13pm
missed the good entries on g/y due to work/sleep this week and VT not working well,
BUT thanks to aus and br posting the aud/jpy news info, my long is doing very well!

see you guys next week, congratulations on the pips and good calls
all of your input is appreciated and invaluable!
Bring It...
  • #15,526
  • Aug 24, 2007 8:47pm Aug 24, 2007 8:47pm
Hi Lawrh,

Do you mind posting the mq4 indicators? I guess the ex4 files are corrupted...my metatrader could not read them. Thank you.
  • #15,527
  • Aug 24, 2007 9:11pm Aug 24, 2007 9:11pm
Quoting Hakuna Matata
now mwa is long from 50ema on 4 hr at 231.25

hi guys just wanted to update on my trade and the reason for entry/exit
as i have been mentioning in here that togthere with Aus system and 2 other systems i follow , i also use 50ema and 100sma especially in 4hr.1hr,30 min TF's and i treat them as strong support/resistence levels.

anyways for those interested and who have been asking me about the use of these MA's- here u go--a pic will say a thousand words

i posted my entry (see above qupte) where it bounced off the 50 ema at 231.25 and i had a t/p set in just below 100sma at 234.50 and i went to sleep and woke up today morning with that last trade closed for +325 pips.
know lookin at the charts i know this will go further Up for sure--but im glad my position is closed for the weekend---ill just reenter, hopefully with a better price nxt week.
the reason for this posting is to show how this 50ema and 100sma come inot play---u can go back in the charts and look what happens around these areas especially in 4hr, 1hr and 30 min Tf's and look at the candles open/close above/below them

enuff said---got to go--will leave u with this pic:
ps-- the other purple arrows are the bounce at/near 50ema on 4hr

enjoy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ks.jpg Size: 104 KB
  • #15,528
  • Aug 24, 2007 9:20pm Aug 24, 2007 9:20pm
Quoting Zoran
Karmo, Karmo. Now you've made me do some work my friend!

I was with you (long) until the end of session. I posted my chart about 10 hours ago. Now I am short because we have a butterfly formation. Charts and info attached and something to digest over the weekend.

The bearish butterfly CD leg is valid up to 161.8% level (of XA) and we have just passed the 138.2 level (my target) . So my stop will be above the 161.8% (235.10) and I have entered short already (adding as we go up).

So risking 90 pippies for many hundreds. Good weekend.

Z
wow, this is Wolfe Waves and Gartleys pattern, and it is always happen in the market....nice analysis zoran...karmo target is 25.20, near to fibo 161.8% (235.10) hopefully after karmo target achieved...bear take over the market
  • #15,529
  • Edited 10:19pm Aug 24, 2007 9:42pm | Edited 10:19pm
Quoting ForexDragon
Technical Analysis aside, I think we have to place more weight on trade sentiment. Are investors still risk-averse? If the credit woes have been calmed and investors are ready for risk again then we will most likely see the carry trade rocket up to new highs.

-Dickens
__________________
The key to accumulating wealth in the Forex Market is CONSISTENCY. Remember, Warren Buffett's wealth was accumulated by consistently compounding about 25% a year, for about 40 years.

Forex is:
- the most exciting financial market to participate in.
- very lucrative for traders who are consistent.
- like an emotional roller coaster ride, if you don't have a trading system in place.

Forex is not:
- a get rich quick investment vehicle.
- for the faint of heart.
- as easy as it sounds.

Good Post!
  • #15,530
  • Aug 24, 2007 9:53pm Aug 24, 2007 9:53pm
Quoting Hakuna Matata
hi guys just wanted to update on my trade and the reason for entry/exit
as i have been mentioning in here that togthere with Aus system and 2 other systems i follow , i also use 50ema and 100sma especially in 4hr.1hr,30 min TF's and i treat them as strong support/resistence levels.

anyways for those interested and who have been asking me about the use of these MA's- here u go--a pic will say a thousand words

i posted my entry (see above qupte) where it bounced off the 50 ema at 231.25 and i had a t/p set in just below 100sma at 234.50 and i went to sleep and woke up today morning with that last trade closed for +325 pips.
know lookin at the charts i know this will go further Up for sure--but im glad my position is closed for the weekend---ill just reenter, hopefully with a better price nxt week.
the reason for this posting is to show how this 50ema and 100sma come inot play---u can go back in the charts and look what happens around these areas especially in 4hr, 1hr and 30 min Tf's and look at the candles open/close above/below them

enuff said---got to go--will leave u with this pic:
ps-- the other purple arrows are the bounce at/near 50ema on 4hr

enjoy
Thanks for sharing Hakuna Matata....i really learn a lot from 100sma and 50ema...
by the way, where can i get QQE indicator??
New Forex Trader
  • #15,531
  • Edited 10:33pm Aug 24, 2007 10:04pm | Edited 10:33pm
Quoting monarch
Now you have had over 300 pips of fun today, isn't that enough for one guy, you gotta release some of those LONGS to help a poor friend out here.

At least release one lot or so, that would put me in the positive. LOL

I am actually glad the price came back up there, was feeling for those drawdowns you had, and don't want anyone to lose too much.

I had a good day already, with the freebie NY Session scalp, even though I missed my LONDON scalp because of my need for sleep.

Lets have fun together, I will take my short profit here soon, then will release them, then your fun will be back at you SUNDAY.


Thoroughly enjoying and learning by the inspirations from this thread
with all the interesting, entertaining, talented, cooperative traders.

I've been dabbling with this for ~2 years on and off until this spring when
I retired. I 've been searching 10 years for something to do after retirement.
But I suppose there wasn't a forex opportunity then as we know it today.

Now I'm approaching this with equal the passion and enthusiasm as my earlier
career.

Thanks to all....

Dr. D.
  • #15,532
  • Aug 24, 2007 10:30pm Aug 24, 2007 10:30pm
Folks, there are some awesome forex training videos, google youtube and fxbootcamp. I can't put the link here cuz the mods will boot me out.
Just joking..
  • #15,533
  • Aug 25, 2007 12:38am Aug 25, 2007 12:38am
AP
Group: Bad Credit Threatening US Economy
Saturday August 25, 12:16 am ET
By Dan Seymour, AP Business Writer
Bad Credit Tops Terrorism as Biggest Immediate Risk to Economy, Group Reports
NEW YORK (AP) -- Bad credit has supplanted terrorism as the gravest immediate risk threatening the economy, a key national research group reported Monday. Borrowers' withering ability to pay their bills and the subsequent fallout in the credit markets this summer topped the list of short-term risks on peoples' minds, according to a survey of 258 members conducted by the National Association of Business Economics.

NABE, a Washington-based association, said 32 percent of its surveyed members cited loan defaults and excessive debt as their biggest near-term concern.Only 20 percent of members cited defense and terrorism as their biggest immediate worry, down from 35 percent when the survey was last conducted in March. Credit risk also topped gas prices, inflation and government spending.
"Financial market turmoil has shifted the focus away from terrorism and toward subprime and other credit problems as the most important near-term threats to the U.S. economy," said Carl Tannenbaum, president of NABE and the chief economist at LaSalle Bank/ABN-Amro.
The market turmoil began earlier this year, when mortgage lenders like New Century Financial Corp. and H&R Block Inc.'s Option One Mortgage Corp. unit reported their clients were missing payments on their home loans more frequently.
This led the Wall Street banks that finance the mortgage market to ultimately pull much of their money out. With cash draining rapidly from the industry, more than 50 lenders have gone bankrupt and a number of investment funds have gone under.
Victims of this flare-up include two of the 10 biggest mortgage lenders in the country and two hedge funds managed by Bear Stearns Cos.
Loan brokers say it has become more difficult for some people to line up mortgages. Subprime loans, or loans to people with spotty credit histories, have all but disappeared as lenders scale back or shut down completely.
The shakeout in the subprime mortgage market forced investors around the world to reassess how much risk they were willing to stomach. This led to an exodus of cash from investments like securities backed by home loans, short-term corporate bonds and stocks whose values were inflated because they were perceived as takeover targets.
In the past five weeks, the stock market has lost 5 percent. The dollar fell to an all-time low versus the euro. A number of companies have had to cancel bond sales because of an absence of buyers.
And, the Federal Reserve has lent billions of dollars to banks from its "discount window," normally associated with bailouts for struggling financial institutions. The Fed this month issued a statement that the risks to the economy have risen considerably and traders ramped up their expectations the Fed would cut targets for interest rates this year.
The tumult in the financial markets has led businesses to revisit their interpretation of the housing boom earlier this decade and the easy credit that fueled it, NABE said. The proportion of surveyed members who call it a "serious national bubble" more than doubled from two years ago to 29 percent, the group said.
NABE said the market turmoil is considered a short-term risk because the five-year outlook for housing is still strong. More surveyed members expect home values to appreciate in the next five years than fall. Very few expect a serious drop in home prices in the next five years.
The greatest long-term risk facing the economy is still health care costs and the medical needs of an aging population, NABE said.
  • #15,534
  • Aug 25, 2007 1:02am Aug 25, 2007 1:02am
Quoting Zoran
Karmo, Karmo. Now you've made me do some work my friend!

I was with you (long) until the end of session. I posted my chart about 10 hours ago. Now I am short because we have a butterfly formation. Charts and info attached and something to digest over the weekend.

The bearish butterfly CD leg is valid up to 161.8% level (of XA) and we have just passed the 138.2 level (my target) . So my stop will be above the 161.8% (235.10) and I have entered short already (adding as we go up).

So risking 90 pippies for many hundreds. Good weekend.

Z
Zoran--very inetersting as i was goin thru this butterfly pattern/setup u posted
few points:
--these kind of setups are usually more powerful/accurate n larger TF's-- but 15min could work as well
--the way this pattern has emerged at the moment is excellent as we are at the 100sma on 4hr which is at 234.70 right now---now price at this area usually stalls and reverses--unless momentum UP is strong and candle closes above it---so i would watch for a 4hr candle to close above it as that would indiacte much further UP movement---i hope u catch my drift !
--we have 50% retracement level of the whole big move down on the daily at 235.15/20
--As u said that the CD leg could extend to 161.8% level and thats where the 50% of that move down retracement level is also--then that would be an ideal level for a bounce off/retrecment to back down to supports according to this bearish butterfly setup.--i see this more of a possibility IF we do not get a close above the 50% retraco level. (look at pic 1)

now all this is an analysis on a smaller TF (15 min)---overall trend looks back up again---but that 50% level will have to be watched closely as a close above that on 4hr/daily and together with a close above 100sma means we r heading back way UP --back to the 250.00 + level again after passing 61.8%, 50ema, 100sma, 78.6% ( look at 2nd pic posted)

enuff said
Hakuna Matata --"no worries"
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ks1.jpg Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ks2.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #15,535
  • Aug 25, 2007 1:07am Aug 25, 2007 1:07am
oops posted twice:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ks1.jpg Size: 100 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ks2.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #15,536
  • Aug 25, 2007 2:45am Aug 25, 2007 2:45am
This explains why I've
placed vortex generator tabs along the leading edge of the wings on my
light plane... to cause added lift... to the market. lol

sleepinginavortex


Quoting zoheir
hmmm do you have a cirrus SR22 ????
I'm very interested to know please tell me
  • #15,537
  • Aug 25, 2007 4:27am Aug 25, 2007 4:27am
For anyone still using VT here is the QQE with alerts.

Pink dot for sell and blue dot for buy
Attached File(s)
File Type: vttrs QQE_alert.vttrs   2 KB | 438 downloads
  • #15,538
  • Aug 25, 2007 4:39am Aug 25, 2007 4:39am
Quoting Hakuna Matata
Zoran--very inetersting as i was goin thru this butterfly pattern/setup u posted
few points:
--these kind of setups are usually more powerful/accurate n larger TF's-- but 15min could work as well
--the way this pattern has emerged at the moment is excellent as we are at the 100sma on 4hr which is at 234.70 right now---now price at this area usually stalls and reverses--unless momentum UP is strong and candle closes above it---so i would watch for a 4hr candle to close above it as that would indiacte much further UP movement---i hope u catch my drift !
--we have 50% retracement level of the whole big move down on the daily at 235.15/20
--As u said that the CD leg could extend to 161.8% level and thats where the 50% of that move down retracement level is also--then that would be an ideal level for a bounce off/retrecment to back down to supports according to this bearish butterfly setup.--i see this more of a possibility IF we do not get a close above the 50% retraco level. (look at pic 1)

now all this is an analysis on a smaller TF (15 min)---overall trend looks back up again---but that 50% level will have to be watched closely as a close above that on 4hr/daily and together with a close above 100sma means we r heading back way UP --back to the 250.00 + level again after passing 61.8%, 50ema, 100sma, 78.6% ( look at 2nd pic posted)

enuff said
Hakuna Matata --"no worries"
Exactly as I see it.. I do have difficulty around fibs trying to exit or add to positions. I have an order to close my longs at the fib level, but not sure when to go long or short thereafter. Do you wait for a 1 hour or 4 hour candle to open or close above the fib before entering long? visa versa for short?

or do you have another method.. its always very tricky due to false breakouts.

Regards
David
  • #15,539
  • Aug 25, 2007 5:34am Aug 25, 2007 5:34am
Great analysis Zoran and Hakuna Matata

but, the Bull-man is still standing strong
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #15,540
  • Aug 25, 2007 5:38am Aug 25, 2007 5:38am
Quoting Majd
I have a downward resistance line (extending from 19/7 high) that is currently @ 238.00 and would be at a lower once, if this level is reached; what makes you think that the 61.8 @ 238.80 could be reached?

Attachment
The weekly and the daily charts are telling me that we will reach 61.8% fib, plus I trust my fibs more than trendlines.

what makes you think price will fall once it touches the trendline?
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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