Will the dollar weaken next week?

Will the dollar weaken this coming week?

yep

think rangetrading swissie looks like trying to establish a new rally targetting 1,2265 dollar bulls need to control 1,1950 area so thats what i have planned for upcomming week but i can be so wrong time will se ;-)

revoke

No clear sign that market turned bearish the USD again. A break above important Fib levels in Cable, and Aussie might give signs of this.

So my vote will be most probably "unsure" lol.

As for swissie looks good to test 1.1970 before managing a rally (if that is the case)

Not sure about next week, but...


Dollar May Fall to Record Within Six Months, Goldman Sachs Says
By Ye Xie



Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may decline to a record low against the euro in the next six months because U.S. economic growth will slow, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

From the current level of $1.3568 per euro, the U.S. currency will weaken to $1.43 per euro in the next three to six months, Goldman Sachs said in a research note yesterday. New York-based Goldman, the world's biggest securities firm by market value, lowered its dollar forecast from a prior estimate of $1.35. The dollar set a record low of $1.3852 per euro on July 24.

Concern about losses in investments related to mortgage securities has bolstered expectations the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate from 5.25 percent at its Sept. 18 policy meeting. Traders are certain the Fed will cut its key rate to at least 5 percent by Sept. 18, futures show.

``Financial conditions are tightening at a time when clearly there's some downside risk to the growth,'' said Jens Nordvig, a senior currency strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York. Fed rate cuts ``will drag the dollar lower.''

The Fed will lower its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point to 4.5 percent by year-end, according to Goldman Sachs.

The dollar will fall also because foreign investors will reduce purchases of higher-yielding corporate bonds, said Nordvig.

Goldman also said the dollar will decline to 110 yen in the next three to six months, from 116 yen at present, compared with a previous forecast of 118 yen.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aGU1K0tcAeQI

It might weaken, it may gain strength and it may go sideways.

In any case, I'm ready for any situation.

Erm.
Alright, but:
Why on earth mention the swissie though?

http://www.babypips.com/school/image...ex-weights.gif

EURUSD = 57.6% of the complete "USD Index". USDCHF = 3.6%.

Also one needs to realize that both USDCHF and USDJPY are used as carry "core" pairs and hence might still show a tendency to rise or hold steady PARALLEL to a decline in the USD => rising EURCHF, EURJPY = carry.

Don't start with the 88% correlation of euro and swissie. They never seem to move in tandem when you need them to, so when talking about USD, I prefer to talk about the EURUSD

A bearish USD has previously gone hand in hand with a strengthening carry trade and exotics/yielders.

I expect the old "sell USD, buy carry" to resume next week unless something nudges the market again. The EURUSD close for me was far too high to remain fully fledged bearish EURUSD so I am now cautiously bearish USD / bullish carry/exotics again until proven wrong, which I am always open to 24/7.

By my calculations the EUR will strengthen against the USD. My target is 1.3880 If it breaks that point, than it will go anywhere near 1.4100 The first target will be hit in approximately 2 weeks. Of course between the 2 targets there will be a retracement. Second target will be hit by the end of the year. If won't break the first target, then we might even see a total reversal all the way down to 1.1800 by the end of next year.