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Why Smart Traders Watch the First Hour (Initial Balance Guide)

  • #241
  • Feb 17, 2026 1:35pm Feb 17, 2026 1:35pm
Quoting Johnsingh
No automation or indicator or expert advisor...just price action and long hours
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post15578853
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  • #242
  • Feb 17, 2026 1:36pm Feb 17, 2026 1:36pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} O, Ok..I trade via EA that took 3 years to develop. All my knowledge, experience, trials and tribulations are in this EA. In fact, my EA with my brains in it is much better trader then me, for exactly the reason you stated, she does not know the MindFuck.
Awesome! That's all I needed to know, thank you! No more questions on my end!
  • #243
  • Edited 2:24pm Feb 17, 2026 2:03pm | Edited 2:24pm
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} Awesome! That's all I needed to know, thank you! No more questions on my end!
The closest subject to what I do with different ranges throughout the day is happen to be your thread..so I stop by at times to spiel(not a syntax error) my wisdom .
  • #244
  • Feb 17, 2026 2:42pm Feb 17, 2026 2:42pm
Hi @eadweardcap. I am doing some research on the initial balance (statistical analysis). I am looking at what the price action is like for the rest of the session based on the Initial Balance, like if the initial balance is less than 30% of a rolling average of initial balances, I will consider that as a tight range. Some really great insights. I am doing the research using python and pandas and I would like to do an indicator that measures the IB per session (NY, London) everyday and comes up with a moving average of the IB. I would love to look at the source code of your MT5 script. If you're interested I can also share my research and data bank with you. Let me know how to reach you
  • #245
  • Feb 17, 2026 3:16pm Feb 17, 2026 3:16pm
Quoting tinotendakan
Hi @eadweardcap. I am doing some research on the initial balance (statistical analysis). I am looking at what the price action is like for the rest of the session based on the Initial Balance, like if the initial balance is less than 30% of a rolling average of initial balances, I will consider that as a tight range. Some really great insights. I am doing the research using python and pandas and I would like to do an indicator that measures the IB per session (NY, London) everyday and comes up with a moving average of the IB. I would love to look...
Yeah so I've read about this and tried doing it on my own indicator:

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15452537

But I don't think I was calculating things correctly. So the idea is get the pip size of the opening range or a certain range for the past X number of days and if the current range is above or below the average, you decide to trade or not to trade. Is that correct?
  • #246
  • Edited 8:51pm Feb 17, 2026 8:03pm | Edited 8:51pm
Quoting tinotendakan
Hi @eadweardcap. I am doing some research on the initial balance (statistical analysis). I am looking at what the price action is like for the rest of the session based on the Initial Balance, like if the initial balance is less than 30% of a rolling average of initial balances, I will consider that as a tight range. Some really great insights. I am doing the research using python and pandas and I would like to do an indicator that measures the IB per session (NY, London) everyday and comes up with a moving average of the IB. I would love to look...
Quote
I am looking at what the price action is like for the rest of the session based on the Initial Balance
Hi. Check posts #29 and #33, might be interesting for you. Does it look similar to your research? Are results aligned?

I'm happy to jump in if you don't mind to 'open source' your idea about 30%. It fits into my existing snippets.
E.g. on NDX 30% (avg prev. 20 IB) is a rare beast - found single case in 3 years.

40% on screenshot
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Air force
  • #247
  • Feb 17, 2026 8:28pm Feb 17, 2026 8:28pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} {quote} Hi. Check posts #29 and #33, might be interesting for you. Does it look similar to your research? Are results align? I'm happy to jump in if you don't mind to 'open source' your idea about 30%. It fits into my existing snippets. E.g. on NDX 30% (avg prev. 20 IB) is a rare beast - found single case in 3 years. 40% on screenshot {image}
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #248
  • Feb 18, 2026 2:03am Feb 18, 2026 2:03am
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} Yeah so I've read about this and tried doing it on my own indicator: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15452537 But I don't think I was calculating things correctly. So the idea is get the pip size of the opening range or a certain range for the past X number of days and if the current range is above or below the average, you decide to trade or not to trade. Is that correct?
Yep, thats correct. The main idea is that if the IB is overextended (over 70% of the ATR), that means most of the day's business has already been done and you're more likely to get a ranging session. But if the IB is tight, then there's a potential play for a breakout on either side.
  • #249
  • Feb 18, 2026 2:15am Feb 18, 2026 2:15am
This is the indicator i made. Look at today's IB in relation to the european session average range.
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  • #250
  • Feb 18, 2026 6:24am Feb 18, 2026 6:24am
Quoting tinotendakan
This is the indicator i made. Look at today's IB in relation to the european session average range. {image}
Oooo! I like this so explain this a little, what is the "Session ATR" measuring? Meaning I'm guessing you're using the ATR indicator, what are it's parameters?
  • #251
  • Feb 18, 2026 11:32am Feb 18, 2026 11:32am
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post15578853 {image}
YES SIR, But still one has to dig for sometime to draw a sketch before the take it over to fine tune. I am reading through the page without fail to grow better.

Thank you
  • #252
  • Feb 18, 2026 11:49am Feb 18, 2026 11:49am
Quoting tinotendakan
This is the indicator i made. Look at today's IB in relation to the european session average range. {image}
My take on the IB indicator is along the same lines as yours..
I use different hours for each session, this is NY based on this threads hours,
The ATR I use is the range of the IB start and finish times..
I use raw pips as opposed to %
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Im only here for the Guzzoline...
  • #253
  • Feb 18, 2026 11:54am Feb 18, 2026 11:54am
Quoting TheCableman
{quote} My take on the IB indicator is along the same lines as yours.. I use different hours for each session, this is NY based on this threads hours, The ATR I use is the range of the IB start and finish times.. I use raw pips as opposed to % {image}
For the average, how many days back are you looking at?
  • #254
  • Feb 18, 2026 11:54am Feb 18, 2026 11:54am
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15567027
Hi,
Just one quick question regarding the stop loss.. I went back few months on the IB concept as you mentioned in this post, I am wondering how the STOP LOSS is placed. I Mean the range is big enough to keep it below it or above it incase of LONG OR SHORT respectively. I wanted to know how is the risk managed in this trade.. is it a fixed % of the entry point .. or below the range .. or fixed points movement wise depending upon the size one is punching orders.

Thanks
  • #255
  • Feb 18, 2026 11:58am Feb 18, 2026 11:58am
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} For the average, how many days back are you looking at?
30 days back is my default setting, but its adjustable. I find this takes in all the past latest data releases and Trumps X ramblings..
Im only here for the Guzzoline...
  • #256
  • Feb 18, 2026 12:01pm Feb 18, 2026 12:01pm
Quoting TheCableman
{quote} 30 days back is my default setting, but its adjustable. I find this takes in all the past latest data releases and Trumps X ramblings..
Understood, so in the image example the average pips for the opening range for the past 30 days has been 35 pips. Today's range is 19.4 pips which is 15.6 pips below the average. How much of a pip difference above or below do you use as a catalyst to take a trade?
  • #257
  • Feb 18, 2026 12:15pm Feb 18, 2026 12:15pm
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} Understood, so in the image example the average pips for the opening range for the past 30 days has been 35 pips. Today's range is 19.4 pips which is 15.6 pips below the average. How much of a pip difference above or below do you use as a catalyst to take a trade?
Yes, you are spot on with all that.. If its within +-5 of IB av range I would not trade a break out. Obviously the smaller the range the more likely a good break is coming.. I also wait for a close outside, as opposed to a break of high or low..
Im only here for the Guzzoline...
  • #258
  • Feb 18, 2026 1:16pm Feb 18, 2026 1:16pm
Hey guys I tested the following:

IF
Previous Candle Close (1) > 16:30 Candle High
AND
Previous Candle is Bullish (1) AND Previous Candle Body (1) > 16:30 Candle Total Size
THEN
Open Buy Order.
SL is mid price of the 16:30 Candle
TP is 200% of SL

First time trying my own coding and the strategy didn't go to complete shit. Still a lot of trades at the beginning that are just one loss after another.
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  • #259
  • Feb 18, 2026 1:33pm Feb 18, 2026 1:33pm
Quoting eadweardcap
Hey guys I tested the following: IF Previous Candle Close (1) > 16:30 Candle High AND Previous Candle is Bullish (1) AND Previous Candle Body (1) > 16:30 Candle Total Size THEN Open Buy Order. SL is mid price of the 16:30 Candle TP is 200% of SL First time trying my own coding and the strategy didn't go to complete shit. Still a lot of trades at the beginning that are just one loss after another. {image} {image}
Ok.. Ill try to help you with EA stuff..
First off, Dont back test so far, Just do a few months so you can see its its actually doing what it should.. Then increase time..
Write code to trade once a day, or once a session ( have inputs for this to optimize best hours). Without this it will just keep trading non stop..
Im only here for the Guzzoline...
  • #260
  • Feb 19, 2026 8:54am Feb 19, 2026 8:54am
Break Even day so far with NY session, looking for the next range..I did traded London session successfully.

I am not posting other ranges that I trade throughout the day, as this thread dedicated to one range a day.
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