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Why Smart Traders Watch the First Hour (Initial Balance Guide)

  • #221
  • Edited 10:39am Feb 16, 2026 9:41am | Edited 10:39am
Hey everyone! Forgot to turn off the EAs and I just decided to take a manual trade on the Dow Jones. Remember it's a bank holiday in the U.S. so U.S. futures will be closed here in a bit.

Also, after last week's price action I will be looking for a way to perfect this strategy to avoid choppyness and so much volatility.
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  • #222
  • Feb 17, 2026 3:17am Feb 17, 2026 3:17am
I know a pretty similar trading strategy to this for US indices. It works both for S&P500 and NASDAQ100. Essentially, what you are saying is that you are waiting for a range to be formed in an hour and then trade the breakout. That’s the same as ORB (opening range break strategy) which was first mentioned, I believe in “Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout" by Toby Crabel in 1990. The book provides a detailed analysis of short term price patterns and "volatility breakout" strategies, specifically focusing on the first 30-60 minutes of the market open, just like you are saying. However, time passed by and now there are hundreds of different ORB variations, and I use one of them.
So, the main thing that is different from you is that I mark out the first 15 minute candle as my range. It’s because the first 15 minutes are super volatile, and I think it’s enough to trade the breakout without waiting for a whole hour, as your stop loss is going to be enormous which not many can afford (I’m speaking about contract based futures by the way, where you can’t modify your position by lots as you wish) As the range is formed, I drop down to a 5 minute chart and look for the breakout candle. Now, here is the part that is not exactly the same as yours, I don’t take a trade as soon as the break happens, I wait for the break + imbalance (some may call it a fair value gap). If the imbalance is not formed, I call it a day and don’t open any trades, as it’s one of the most important aspects for me to enter that trade. Once I see the breakout candle forming an imbalance, I go ahead and set my order right on top of that imbalance, placing my stop loss at the low of the same candle. I always aim for a take profit that’s fixed at a 1:2 risk to reward ratio.
It may sound a bit confusing, which I’m sorry for, but believe me, it’s pretty easy and just as effective as 1 hour ORB.
  • #223
  • Feb 17, 2026 8:40am Feb 17, 2026 8:40am
Good morning everyone! Back to the desk! Here are today's trades.
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  • #224
  • Edited 10:21am Feb 17, 2026 10:00am | Edited 10:21am
Precision is the name of the game today for + 195 points ..caught the last ask..after trading live for the past 5 years, I still get excited about it.

Love my business of trading .
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  • #225
  • Feb 17, 2026 10:18am Feb 17, 2026 10:18am
Quoting driven18
Precision is the name of the game today for + 195 points ..caught the last ask..after trading live for the past 5 years, I still get excited about it. Love my business of trading . {image}
Trying to understand a little better, why didnt you also take a long at 49590 AND the short?
  • #226
  • Feb 17, 2026 10:27am Feb 17, 2026 10:27am
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} Trying to understand a little better, why didnt you also take a long at 49590 AND the short?
It was a lower probability entry on Buy, I measured volatility and momentum and it was not there, until the last few seconds...that usually ends up to a failure as i am going for around 200 points plus. It did resulted in a failure and short trade was much more lucrative.

For you, as you going for small profits, it would be Ok.
  • #227
  • Feb 17, 2026 10:31am Feb 17, 2026 10:31am
For 3 persons who wrote me privately, please stop writing, this is not my thread, I am not teaching and I only post at times when something exciting happens, like today or previously, when 2 trades occurred the same day ..the other mundane days of trading, although profitable, are not that interesting.
  • #228
  • Feb 17, 2026 12:00pm Feb 17, 2026 12:00pm
Quoting eadweardcap
Good morning everyone! Back to the desk! Here are today's trades. {image}
Hi,
I read while going through this pages from beginning as IB range being the 1ST hour 09:30 am till 10:30 am.The trades shown is considering the IB from pre-market.
I trade Dow, hence just wanted to understand if I am reading this concept correctly or is there any changes.
  • #229
  • Feb 17, 2026 12:13pm Feb 17, 2026 12:13pm
Quoting Johnsingh
{quote} Hi, I read while going through this pages from beginning as IB range being the 1ST hour 09:30 am till 10:30 am.The trades shown is considering the IB from pre-market. I trade Dow, hence just wanted to understand if I am reading this concept correctly or is there any changes.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15567027
  • #230
  • Feb 17, 2026 12:14pm Feb 17, 2026 12:14pm
Quoting driven18
Precision is the name of the game today for + 195 points ..caught the last ask..after trading live for the past 5 years, I still get excited about it. Love my business of trading . {image}
Hi driven18,
In what time frame you took this shot.

thanks
  • #231
  • Feb 17, 2026 12:16pm Feb 17, 2026 12:16pm
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15567027
Thank you
  • #232
  • Edited 12:39pm Feb 17, 2026 12:27pm | Edited 12:39pm
Quoting Johnsingh
{quote} Hi, I read while going through this pages from beginning as IB range being the 1ST hour 09:30 am till 10:30 am.The trades shown is considering the IB from pre-market. I trade Dow, hence just wanted to understand if I am reading this concept correctly or is there any changes.
Your IB range does not have to be at specific times, as an example my Range is constantly moving, each day it can be at different times and at different TF's, from 5 Min to 1 Hour. All depends on PA Volatility(Liquidity), S/R, and the initial significant spark of Momentum. All based on behavior of PA.

In fact, based on above parameters, there are 3-4 decent Ranges that are tradable throughout 24 hour day.
  • #233
  • Feb 17, 2026 12:38pm Feb 17, 2026 12:38pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Your IB range does not have to be at specific times, as an example my Range is constantly moving, each day it can be at different times and at different TF's, from 5 Min to 1 Hour. All depends on PA Volatility(Liquidity), S/R, and the initial significant spark of Momentum. All based on behavior of PA.
Thank you, I'll try to dig deeper.
  • #234
  • Edited 12:58pm Feb 17, 2026 12:45pm | Edited 12:58pm
I did not trade this, as done my 2 trades today, but here is the range that I marked and would be profitable based on parameters that I am looking for..and here you go, 2nd chart for + 150 points..
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  • #235
  • Feb 17, 2026 12:58pm Feb 17, 2026 12:58pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Your IB range does not have to be at specific times, as an example my Range is constantly moving, each day it can be at different times and at different TF's, from 5 Min to 1 Hour. All depends on PA Volatility(Liquidity), S/R, and the initial significant spark of Momentum. All based on behavior of PA. In fact, based on above parameters, there are 3-4 decent Ranges that are tradable throughout 24 hour day.
To be clear and so everyone here knows, your strategy isnt automated right? Meaning you don't use any price action indicator or expert advisor to trade for you, right?
  • #236
  • Feb 17, 2026 12:58pm Feb 17, 2026 12:58pm
Quoting driven18
I did not trade this, as done my 2 trades today, but here is the range that I marked and would be profitable based on parameters that I am looking for..and here you go, 2nd chart for + 130 points.. {image} {image}
Yes. Thank you Again, I think I will understand it sooner than later. I was trying to setup the TF precisely as yours to understand but I am trading CFD so the difference in size of Bars and Price might be there. But the overall concept remains intact about defining the range which I will grind myself into.

Thanks Again.
  • #237
  • Feb 17, 2026 1:00pm Feb 17, 2026 1:00pm
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} To be clear and so everyone here knows, your strategy isnt automated right? Meaning you don't use any price action indicator or expert advisor to trade for you, right?
Why is it important to you? Ea or Manual? I display knowledge that took years to acquire..who cares how trade is taken.

As I told here, entries are almost irrelevant, it is how you manage the trade and how you control your mindfuck to get to TP of 200+ points.

Importance of:
Entry = 10%
Money Management in the trade = 40%
Controlling your MindFuck(Fear and Greed) = 50%
  • #238
  • Feb 17, 2026 1:02pm Feb 17, 2026 1:02pm
No automation or indicator or expert advisor...just price action and long hours
  • #239
  • Feb 17, 2026 1:15pm Feb 17, 2026 1:15pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Why is it important to you? Ea or Manual? I display knowledge that took years to acquire..who cares how trade is taken. As I told here, entries are almost irrelevant, it is how you manage the trade and how you control your mindfuck to get to TP of 200+ points. Importance of: Entry = 10% Money Management in the trade = 40% Controlling your MindFuck(Fear and Greed) = 50%
It's important because first I like seeing the numbers and the statistics of it and that is usually generated through code. Whether its through MQL5 or Python. Second, through numbers and statistics, you can control the "mindfuck" aspect of trading that you refer to. And lastly, because I'd like to not look at charts at some point and just let an algorithm do the work for me and just get notifications of when trades are closed. Work smarter not harder. Nothing sinister behind my question and not trying to get you to give up any "secrets" or "knowledge" that have taken you years to acquire.
  • #240
  • Feb 17, 2026 1:21pm Feb 17, 2026 1:21pm
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} It's important because first I like seeing the numbers and the statistics of it and that is usually generated through code. Whether its through MQL5 or Python. Second, through numbers and statistics, you can control the "mindfuck" aspect of trading that you refer to. And lastly, because I'd like to not look at charts at some point and just let an algorithm do the work for me and just get notifications of when trades are closed. Work smarter not harder. Nothing sinister behind my question and not trying to get you to give up any "secrets"...
O, Ok..I trade via EA that took 3 years to develop. All my knowledge, experience, trials and tribulations are in this EA.

In fact, my EA with my brains in it is much better trader then me, for exactly the reason you stated, she does not know the MindFuck.
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