The US Employment Situation -- January 2026 | Forex Factory

  • The US Employment Situation -- January 2026

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities lost jobs. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical ... (full story)

Added at 7:33am

  • U.S. payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.3%

    From cnbc.com

    Job growth was stronger than expected to start 2026, providing some relief to concerns about the state of the U.S. labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 for January, above the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 55,000, according to seasonally adjusted figures the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday. The total also was an improvement over December, which saw a gain of 48,000 after a slight downward revision. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, below the forecast to stay unchanged at 4.4% from the prior month. The report, delayed nearly a week by the partial government shutdown that ended ... (full story)

Added at 7:37am

Added at 7:42am

Comment Options
EventsTrader
Feb 11, 2026 7:45am — Edited
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But wait there's more! Annual revisions.

By December 2025, payroll levels were revised lower by 1,029,000 jobs. Monthly Gains Were Systematically Overstated. Look at the “over-the-month difference” column:
• January: originally +111K → revised –48K
• February: +102K → revised +42K
• March: +120K → revised +67K
• September: +108K → revised +76K
• December: +50K → revised +48K
Many months were meaningfully overstated, especially early 2025.

This Is Quietly Dovish. Markets will focus on January’s +130K. But the Fed will focus on:
• Downward level revision of ~1M jobs
• Slower job creation throughout 2025
• Softer labor momentum entering 2026
This reduces the “labor market is too tight” argument.

The labor market was weaker all through 2025 than we thought. January isn’t strong, it just looks better relative to a downward-revised base. This revision meaningfully:
• Softens the labor narrative
• Undermines “overheating” concerns
• Supports a gradual shift toward eventual rate cuts


If inflation continues easing, this revision gives the Fed more cover to pivot.
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TimmyBTrades
Feb 11, 2026 7:34am
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* Members of President Trump's team have offered multiple warnings that employment gains may disappoint Wall Street*

I’ve been hoodwinked!
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seantrades
Feb 11, 2026 7:31am
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In before "buy gold" "sell gold" "hold gold"
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EventsTrader
Feb 11, 2026 7:41am
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Above expectations across the board.

Notable:

Health Care +82K: Still the dominant engine (ambulatory +50K, hospitals +18K) — continues to anchor overall job growth.

Social Assistance +42K: Reflects continued strength in individual and family services.

Construction +33K: Nonresidential specialty trades drove the increase — notable given 2025 flat trend.


Federal Government –34K: Ongoing workforce reductions; down 327K since Oct 2024 peak (–10.9%).

Financial Activities –22K: Continued contraction from prior peak (down 49K since May).

Transportation & Warehousing: –11K

Information: –12K


• Payroll Growth: +130K (Private +172K): Below the ~150K “trend” threshold, but private hiring was stronger than the headline suggests, government cuts masked firmer underlying momentum. This reads as cooling, not collapsing.

• Wage Growth: +0.4% m/m | +3.7% y/y: Still firm and slightly above what’s consistent with 2% inflation over time. Sticky wage pressure limits the Fed’s urgency to cut.

• Federal Government: –34K (–327K since Oct 2024 peak): Ongoing contraction distorts the headline payroll number. Markets will focus on whether weakness is structural (government) or cyclical (private), right now it’s mostly structural.

• Underemployment Improvement: Part-time for economic reasons –453K: This is a strong quality-of-labor signal. Underemployment fell sharply, suggesting labor demand remains solid beneath the surface.

• This keeps the Fed in a “hold” posture: labor is cooling gradually, not cracking.
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jordanvic
Feb 11, 2026 7:33am
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It's those crypto bros joining the job market.
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Trader#B7A8
Feb 11, 2026 7:32am
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guess the guy reporting is happy. Not getting fired.
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Trader#BBE1
Feb 11, 2026 7:32am
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Get ready for all the mental TDS comments
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LightchaserG
Feb 11, 2026 7:41am
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WOW!!! excellent Numbers
Lets celebrate William J. Wiatrowski for the best sucking competitor for Donald TRUMP!

Well done for lying to the American People and Beyond.

imo.
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yieldjunkie
Feb 11, 2026 7:47am
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Quoting EventsTrader
But wait there's more! Annual revisions. By December 2025, payroll levels were revised lower by 1,029,000 jobs. Monthly Gains Were Systematically Overstated. Look at the “over-the-month difference” column: • January: originally +111K → revised –48K • February: +102K → revised +42K • March: +120K → revised +67K • September: +108K → revised +76K • December: +50K → revised +48K Many months...
That is wild!!!
Reply
ffghost
Feb 11, 2026 7:40am
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Quoting TimmyBTrades
* Members of President Trump's team have offered multiple warnings that employment gains may disappoint Wall Street* I’ve been hoodwinked!
Yep, they were playing that "expectations" game. BUT, if you look at revisions forthcoming, this could be a big one (time will tell).

Aside from that, the cash markets may (I say may, because who knows), see this, think "well, labor is doing well, FED will be less likely to cut now", and sell off in a big way at the open, or at 10 AM EST...AGAIN...........please, oh, please let me be wrong on this and equities fly today.
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ffghost
Feb 11, 2026 7:48am
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Quoting EventsTrader
But wait there's more! Annual revisions. By December 2025, payroll levels were revised lower by 1,029,000 jobs. Monthly Gains Were Systematically Overstated. Look at the “over-the-month difference” column: • January: originally +111K → revised –48K • February: +102K → revised +42K • March: +120K → revised +67K • September: +108K → revised +76K • December: +50K → revised +48K Many months...

....ah, so THIS is where the administration was laying the groundwork for "don't be afraid". The huge revisions.

To be fair, Powell said as much in October. Effectively stating: "we look at monthly job numbers and subtract about 60k to get the 'real' number"......so we'll see how this trades.

Here's hoping the market says "bring on the free money and dovish FED rate cut odds!" (and equities pop)
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Polimini
Feb 11, 2026 8:16am
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I wouldn't believe these numbers for a second. But that doesn't matter to trading
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Polimini
Feb 11, 2026 8:16am
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Quoting TimmyBTrades
* Members of President Trump's team have offered multiple warnings that employment gains may disappoint Wall Street* I’ve been hoodwinked!
you were their liquidity
Reply
DaJoWaBa
Feb 11, 2026 8:01am
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Quoting EventsTrader
But wait there's more! Annual revisions. By December 2025, payroll levels were revised lower by 1,029,000 jobs. Monthly Gains Were Systematically Overstated. Look at the “over-the-month difference” column: • January: originally +111K → revised –48K • February: +102K → revised +42K • March: +120K → revised +67K • September: +108K → revised +76K • December: +50K → revised +48K Many months...
Brilliant analysis, as always. You're very reliable for unbiased simple summaries.
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Trader#80B5
Feb 11, 2026 7:36am
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lol,who still believes this sh1t
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Trader#0297
Feb 11, 2026 7:44am
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Quoting Trader#BBE1
Get ready for all the mental TDS comments
do you realize how stupid this sounds lol. You are literally victimizing yourself. Using the term TDS makes you by default, a moron
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Trader#383D
Feb 11, 2026 7:44am
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Trump employment fiction with a bit of Xmas seasonal jobs thrown in!
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Trader#FA2E
Feb 11, 2026 7:55am
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Highly manipulated
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ffghost
Feb 11, 2026 7:41am
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Quoting Trader#6754
Funny how futures reacted with a strong up trend... while what these numbers mean is there are no rate cuts anytime soon... but hey "up is down, left is right, bad news is good news" has been here for 5 years why should anything move the market to its senses now?
Yeah, this worries me a bit too....
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ffghost
Feb 11, 2026 8:04am
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Quoting Trader#37BC
Nothing new in terms of the data being unreliable - I know it's a big market but how can anyone put any trust in these government numbers when the revisions show they are so wildly inaccurate. All good for trading tho - providing you are trading the market as it is rather than gambling on what you think might happen. On another note it seems the stream of "gold" calls following these announcements has tailed off to virtually zero since the big drop of a few days ago - does that mean the gamblers who just follow other peoples calls are...
99.99% of the "buy gold!" "Sell gold!" "F you Trump", etc posts are bots. Registered the same month or unregistered. Maybe FF has a better method of detection? Or maybe they only jump on threads with Trump tweets? Either way, you want to talk about "fake", look no further than those posts/users
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SuperVGA
Feb 11, 2026 7:43am
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All rigged anyways. lol. Who belives this crap?
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Trader#8A66
Feb 11, 2026 7:44am
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This has gotta be fraud. There is no way with all these tech layoffs
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ffghost
Feb 11, 2026 7:36am
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Quoting seantrades
In before "buy gold" "sell gold" "hold gold"
beat me to it
Reply
ffghost
Feb 11, 2026 8:06am
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Quoting Trader#EA60
Ty for the bag 10k profit in 5min. I'm done working this month now lets book a ticket to Thailand and celebrate it with a orange cocktail cheers trumpyou are best president ever

What?!? You say "Thank you" by spending your profits OUTSIDE the US?!? Key West is nice this time of year...

...well, at least use an US based carrier to fly you there
Reply
ffghost
Feb 11, 2026 9:38am
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Quoting Trader#EA60
{quote} Sry dude but im from europe anyway I would like to spend it in California but my criminal record won't let me enter your country beside ill book a room in the trump hotel if that makes you happy. Cheers m8
Ha! It'll make TRUMP happy, but doesn't do much for me. He doesn't pay taxes anyway (so I hear), so it's not like my roads are getting any better based on your stay.

As for criminal record, ironically, CA is probably the one state here where you CAN visit despite a criminal record. That pesky FAA being federal though, I guess they do offer some resistance.
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Trader#9618
Feb 11, 2026 7:53am
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Guess we just lying with the numbers now cool
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Trader#F430
Feb 11, 2026 7:54am
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Meaningless drivel of cow pies these news events mean nothing. Absolutely nothing.
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Trader#37BC
Feb 11, 2026 7:56am
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Nothing new in terms of the data being unreliable - I know it's a big market but how can anyone put any trust in these government numbers when the revisions show they are so wildly inaccurate. All good for trading tho - providing you are trading the market as it is rather than gambling on what you think might happen.

On another note it seems the stream of "gold" calls following these announcements has tailed off to virtually zero since the big drop of a few days ago - does that mean the gamblers who just follow other peoples calls are currently trying to put together a new trading bank?
Reply
adewale
Feb 11, 2026 8:00am
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Buy dollars
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Trader#C92B
Feb 11, 2026 8:35am
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This is the catalyst for the US economy to collapse for good. That motherf*cking orange fuck is the only person you should blame for this.
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SunTrader
Feb 11, 2026 8:09am
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Quoting Trader#BBE1
Get ready for all the mental TDS comments
FYP TisDS
Reply
Twocans
Feb 11, 2026 7:15pm
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Quoting TimmyBTrades
* Members of President Trump's team have offered multiple warnings that employment gains may disappoint Wall Street* I’ve been hoodwinked!
lol
DaJoWaBa
Feb 11, 2026 7:36am
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Quoting seantrades
In before "buy gold" "sell gold" "hold gold"
, well done!
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objective
Feb 11, 2026 7:51am
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Rigged
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Trader#EDC0
Feb 11, 2026 7:31am
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lol
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Trader#A2F5
Feb 11, 2026 7:35am
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all bullshit
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Trader#E14A
Feb 11, 2026 7:36am
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some pretty nasty revisions though
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Emperor0
Feb 11, 2026 7:37am
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My positions
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Trader#6754
Feb 11, 2026 8:10am
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Quoting Trader#EA60
Ty for the bag 10k profit in 5min. I'm done working this month now lets book a ticket to Thailand and celebrate it with a orange cocktail cheers trumpyou are best president ever
spot the bot...
Reply
Trader#5018
Feb 11, 2026 8:32am
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Hey look at all the fake data lolzzzzz
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Emperor0
Feb 11, 2026 8:32am
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Quoting LightchaserG
WOW!!! excellent Numbers Lets celebrate William J. Wiatrowski for the best sucking competitor for Donald TRUMP! Well done for lying to the American People and Beyond. imo.
wow amazing performance
Reply
sanghafc
Feb 11, 2026 8:24am
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Gold Label always hunting SL
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Huntpips
Feb 11, 2026 7:48am
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Good job Mr President.
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Trader#E14A
Feb 11, 2026 7:33am
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holy smokers
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nickwin
Feb 11, 2026 7:34am
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leave gold
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Trader#6754
Feb 11, 2026 7:36am
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Funny how futures reacted with a strong up trend... while what these numbers mean is there are no rate cuts anytime soon... but hey "up is down, left is right, bad news is good news" has been here for 5 years why should anything move the market to its senses now?
Reply
Trader#3045
Feb 11, 2026 7:37am
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lool
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Trader#3B3E
Feb 11, 2026 7:38am
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Usd back to stronger…
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Abdulmurenge
Feb 11, 2026 7:42am
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Sell now
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Trader#841A
Feb 11, 2026 7:43am
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Is someone rich here?
Reply
Ming007
Feb 11, 2026 7:44am
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gg
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Prayy
Feb 11, 2026 7:50am
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Reply
Trader#63EC
Feb 11, 2026 8:03am
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Buy bug dollar
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Trader#9511
Feb 11, 2026 8:20am
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USD always toilet paper
Reply
goldmaxone
Feb 11, 2026 8:44am
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now everyone is liquidity
Reply
Trader#EA60
Feb 11, 2026 9:25am
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Quoting Trader#6754
{quote} spot the bot...
I wish i had a bot but I dont know how to install program or use it and im wayyyyy to lazy to learn it. I just live gambling sometimes you get lucky coz I never use a stop loss either
Reply
Trader#EA60
Feb 11, 2026 9:29am
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} What?!? You say "Thank you" by spending your profits OUTSIDE the US?!? Key West is nice this time of year... ...well, at least use an US based carrier to fly you there
Sry dude but im from europe anyway I would like to spend it in California but my criminal record won't let me enter your country beside ill book a room in the trump hotel if that makes you happy. Cheers m8
Reply
Trader#2998
Feb 11, 2026 10:31am
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The ADP National Employment Report (ADP) is produced by a private corporation, while the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is produced by the U.S. government.

It's not that hard to understand which number gives a clearer picture...
Reply
Trader#EA60
Feb 11, 2026 1:02pm
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Damn I shouldn't have cashed out as gbp/jpy keeps on going and going ahwell greed gets you zeroed I guess better take some then to wait for the market to reverse and you lose it all pip by pip over few hours/days time. Being g there dona thar
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Trader#EA03
Feb 11, 2026 3:06pm
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Idts fed cutting interest rates or doing QE again will help employment because most businesses and balls deep in AI and would shove all the extra liquidity into it, even though gains are yet to be seen.
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Trader#3045
Feb 11, 2026 7:34am
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long
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Trader#2786
Feb 11, 2026 7:36am
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Crazy data
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Trader#6090
Feb 11, 2026 7:40am
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lol
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Trader#DB85
Feb 11, 2026 7:41am
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Lol as expected
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Trader#5234
Feb 11, 2026 7:42am
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the open market gonna be crazy
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Trader#DC7E
Feb 11, 2026 7:42am
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Time to make some money
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Trader#01AD
Feb 11, 2026 7:42am
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Hmmm
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Trader#6941
Feb 11, 2026 7:42am
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It is well
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Trader#4BCD
Feb 11, 2026 7:43am
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i bought nasdaq and i have done 2k hahaha
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Trader#0996
Feb 11, 2026 7:45am
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Wow what a move in gold 500 to 700 PIPS in one candle
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Trader#272E
Feb 11, 2026 7:45am
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sell now
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Trader#775F
Feb 11, 2026 7:47am
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Gold gold
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Trader#B7CA
Feb 11, 2026 7:49am
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wtf and dolar goes down ? !!
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Trader#D2BB
Feb 11, 2026 7:49am
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Good data but USD has no hope
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Trader#D2BB
Feb 11, 2026 7:51am
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No body can save USD
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Trader#61D4
Feb 11, 2026 7:54am
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Tech layoffs nah
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Trader#1953
Feb 11, 2026 7:55am
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Lol
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Trader#EA60
Feb 11, 2026 7:56am
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Ty for the bag 10k profit in 5min. I'm done working this month now lets book a ticket to Thailand and celebrate it with a orange cocktail cheers trumpyou are best president ever
Reply
Trader#D4DF
Feb 11, 2026 8:04am
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Wow
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bcomgold
Feb 11, 2026 8:06am
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America is hot !
Reply
Trader#EAD3
Feb 11, 2026 4:24pm
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That report was cooked beyond belief.
Reply
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