Thanks.
You can't blindly use an Indicator, but knowing the bigger picture then allows you to use an indicator effectively
Indicators track price cycles, price cycles work out to bigger cycles and they all work out to some type of geometrical growth or decay spiral
Don't roll your eyes but Elliott Wave works out to a part of that growth/decay spiral, but only part of it, hence why it doesn't really work and you have to constantly alter the count
the problem is that you can't work out the growth/decay spiral exactly in advance, BUT................
you can isolate a few cycles that you can take advantage of
The problem you have here is your price charts! They are 2 dimensional, price and time aren't moving or working out in 2 dimensions!
Let me show you
SP500 Index DAILY chart in 2 Dimensions
We can see that there seems to be lows every 160-192 TRADING DAYS
The last cycle projection runs this zone from the last low - its quite a wide range of time, but if the cycle is correct then we should see a low hit very very close to or in that zone
It actually came 1 day early at 159 trading days! Anyway the low arrived in the expected zone
The problem here comes with the Indicator - we can see the Indicator caught the low, but what about the other times it reversed and gave a buy in those zones where the actual low came later towards the 192 trading days?
You'd of suffered losses
Now on the chart i have marked when the cycle low came in with a vertical blue line - If you look left a few bars you'll see a fake low occurred along with the Indicator in the right position - So you could apply some discretion and see if its the low or a fake low but that stops you from getting in as close to the actual low as possible
This is something you just have to live with if trading from normal price charts
Now the chart above just accounts for the price and time is a set static linear format
Cycles aren't made up of fixed 2 dimensional points - they account for another dimension or factor if you prefer
Cycles operate in the length of the cycle, the amplitude of the cycle and the phasing of the cycle, the phasing element is the KEY
This next chart is the same SP500 DAILY data as above but it shows the proper cycle - as you can see its uniform, that trading day "zone" has gone, because we set the correct phasing to the cycle
So by looking at a correctly formatted chart of the cycle, when we have a cycle low arriving, we can wait for the low point to hit then refer to the Indicator and trade when it makes a bullish reversal
In fact as long as the bigger cycle is UP, then all these sub cycle up moves will generate tradable lows on the indicator bull reversals to a very high win rate - also note when the bigger cycle is UP when this sub cycle tops out and falls down into the next sub cycle low, price often continues upwards - what that means is it is ultra high probability that this correction will be smallish and then the uptrend will continue, if you don't get that, then a bigger correction is due and/or a bear market - this is one hell of an edge
People say that the markets are rigged and they are - just not in the way you assuming they are rigged - you're just not looking at your charts correctly because they are completely limited to a 2 dimensional format and as we have seen price and time are not running out to 2 dimensions
If you know the cycles at play in your market, you don't even need the indicators - now this cycle will operate perfectly fine until the bigger cycle moves into a big bear market, then it will catch lows, but the moves thereafter won't be that good, shorting the cycle tops will be though and regardless of what people think or tell you, you can project those dates into the future
You've all tried to trade long in a downtrend at some point, then realised oh the trend is down, well i just use cycles to establish the path of least resistance
this basically assumes that I think that the markets are not random and some sort of order exists
This is a UK stock using the same principle, I've just added more cycles to this to create the RED composite index - pretty good fit
the LAST RED cycle low on the chart above, turned out to predict the price low perfectly as marked on the chart, along with a Indicator reversal at the cycle low - you can see what the share price did on all those BIG cycle lows
Indicators track price cycles, price cycles work out to bigger cycles and they all work out to some type of geometrical growth or decay spiral
Don't roll your eyes but Elliott Wave works out to a part of that growth/decay spiral, but only part of it, hence why it doesn't really work and you have to constantly alter the count
the problem is that you can't work out the growth/decay spiral exactly in advance, BUT................
you can isolate a few cycles that you can take advantage of
The problem you have here is your price charts! They are 2 dimensional, price and time aren't moving or working out in 2 dimensions!
Let me show you
SP500 Index DAILY chart in 2 Dimensions
We can see that there seems to be lows every 160-192 TRADING DAYS
The last cycle projection runs this zone from the last low - its quite a wide range of time, but if the cycle is correct then we should see a low hit very very close to or in that zone
It actually came 1 day early at 159 trading days! Anyway the low arrived in the expected zone
The problem here comes with the Indicator - we can see the Indicator caught the low, but what about the other times it reversed and gave a buy in those zones where the actual low came later towards the 192 trading days?
You'd of suffered losses
Now on the chart i have marked when the cycle low came in with a vertical blue line - If you look left a few bars you'll see a fake low occurred along with the Indicator in the right position - So you could apply some discretion and see if its the low or a fake low but that stops you from getting in as close to the actual low as possible
This is something you just have to live with if trading from normal price charts
Now the chart above just accounts for the price and time is a set static linear format
Cycles aren't made up of fixed 2 dimensional points - they account for another dimension or factor if you prefer
Cycles operate in the length of the cycle, the amplitude of the cycle and the phasing of the cycle, the phasing element is the KEY
This next chart is the same SP500 DAILY data as above but it shows the proper cycle - as you can see its uniform, that trading day "zone" has gone, because we set the correct phasing to the cycle
So by looking at a correctly formatted chart of the cycle, when we have a cycle low arriving, we can wait for the low point to hit then refer to the Indicator and trade when it makes a bullish reversal
In fact as long as the bigger cycle is UP, then all these sub cycle up moves will generate tradable lows on the indicator bull reversals to a very high win rate - also note when the bigger cycle is UP when this sub cycle tops out and falls down into the next sub cycle low, price often continues upwards - what that means is it is ultra high probability that this correction will be smallish and then the uptrend will continue, if you don't get that, then a bigger correction is due and/or a bear market - this is one hell of an edge
People say that the markets are rigged and they are - just not in the way you assuming they are rigged - you're just not looking at your charts correctly because they are completely limited to a 2 dimensional format and as we have seen price and time are not running out to 2 dimensions
If you know the cycles at play in your market, you don't even need the indicators - now this cycle will operate perfectly fine until the bigger cycle moves into a big bear market, then it will catch lows, but the moves thereafter won't be that good, shorting the cycle tops will be though and regardless of what people think or tell you, you can project those dates into the future
You've all tried to trade long in a downtrend at some point, then realised oh the trend is down, well i just use cycles to establish the path of least resistance
this basically assumes that I think that the markets are not random and some sort of order exists
This is a UK stock using the same principle, I've just added more cycles to this to create the RED composite index - pretty good fit
the LAST RED cycle low on the chart above, turned out to predict the price low perfectly as marked on the chart, along with a Indicator reversal at the cycle low - you can see what the share price did on all those BIG cycle lows
as a beginner trader my favorite indicator was Moving Average , i was profitable in demo with this trading indicator but when kicked off live it not worked greatly as like before.
