Blue's Clues to Trading: Timing Levels and Behaviour of Price

As Vidvad stated his opinion on the book "Zen and the Art of Poker"

I must say in a way all these charts and doodads as much as I love them and think they are the
cats ass,,,for me,,, More importantly is "me" and "you".. considering what you trade has a positive
edge.. Which there are so many ways to trade... This all is just me and sharing what works for me
Trading wise that is..

The real Bigger picture is it's "you vs you" as TimeTells says

This all means squat if we cant execute and perform.

As much as I like to share charts and try and help others to learn or see or begin to understand the markets
in a auction market theory way...My favourite subject has always been psychology...the human brain and our behaviours
...quantum physics , entanglement and how it all relates to trading... Love it !

Trading is very much the proverbial 3 legged stool.
(in no order ! )
1 leg Method/system
2 leg Money/risk mgmt
3 leg Personal Psychology

If one leg falters we may fall on our ass....If one leg is missing then you simply cant sit at the table of trading.

So why not some more charts !


The Initial Balance was nearing completion and the Weekly(Prev) 1SD level (green) was above and with the momentum
the market had..based on the VP levels etc weekly POC price above ....I put those eyes up there as I knew with a fair amount
of certainty price will react at that level....Simply reject which it did for some a great scalp...Bigger picture was in play tho.

By observing the marked levels and the behaviour of price around them. Finally the bullish engulfing candle pushes thru
with no retest at all.

When price moves like that bouncing off the prev weeks VP VAH
the Prev days VAH and not last weeks,,but the weeks priors close
plus the prev day high plus the prev weeks 1SD...
I mean cmon man,,,the only question then is, if your not already long that is , how to get in and apply risk.




At this moment it's jump on the moving train setup..price has pushed thru
come back and found support at PD VAH PW VAH a prev weeks close
daily 1sd (price discovery long setup right there alone)
And daily vwap ramping upwards...NY vwap is at a 60 degree angle up

GEESH GOLD,,,No thank you...Leave it for the Bold traders and the Degen gamblers lol.... jk

Hard to reconcile such moves Kev.

Very well organised for sure

As Andy said, with so much money up for grabs not likely it would be left to just chance by the big players.


Thar's gold in them there hills
So precise !

GOLD

I have to agree Pete ! Yep..zero left for chance. It never ceases to amaze me lol !
I will leave it up to those smarty pants for those precise strikes ! just wow.
I am content being the waterboy for now with Gold....

Basic Chart Initial Balance indi
and SVP HD Vol Profile indis set to the various open and closes
one for NY one for Globex and one for daily overall.

Then add Various VWAPs to gauge where the markets at
to determine what setups I am looking for...Narrows it down
generally to only a couple at any given time.



Weekly VWAP in play as well as session/daily




4 basic setups here circled..




Have a great day !

A situation played out this morning on the ES with many factors in play.
1st was the Gap up driven by a rare Wed NFP.
Gaps in general have a higher probability of closing themselves midweek
Todays size gap same day probability is around 40% it closes.
Targeting the half gap is around 60% probability.

I dont trade "just" a gap..it only added extra oomph

What I was looking at was Fri Jan 30th gave us that weeks close and the monthly close.
Closes are important to note and know where they are and how has price behaved around them.
Monthly>Weekly>Daily in order of importance.

So we had January close in play and we had the last 2 days VAH value area highs in play.
Meaning that the 70% of the last two days volume is BELOW those levels.
Considering the gap(size) and where price opened ABOVE the monthly close.
It will take alot of fuel to propel the markets higher at that point.
And perhaps there were orders sitting at that monthly level that fueled the move down...
I dont really know.

I simply shorted the Edge of Value after the first 5m close...target was prev days POC
and that was it.

Notice now where price bounced off at the close of the IB.... Prev Weeks POC

Tumbler Ridge

i am reading this whole thread and making notes.. Do u trade on gold on new day opening time? i mean on Tokyo and Sydney sessions

I have in the past yes..But currently just trading the ES.. But Asia can be exceptional thats for sure.
China has been on a 15 month buying spree ? or 14

8pm NY time is key as is 9..But we see many times a push right out of GLobex open at 6pm.

Initial Balance is key 820-920am NY...Those levels work straight thru for Asia for London..thats all I use.
With Volume profile..for ex with ES i am only concerned with the prev days RTH volume...I dont use
globex volume ..its just insignificant imo...

But for gold I split the volume profile from 6pm-819am and then 820-close...with that said tho...
I will throw a VP up for the entire day and just see where price is in relation and if levels overlap.

First thing I observed this morning was the market was going to open with a Gap up .
AND we have 3 levels stacked on each other down where the gap would close (if it does)



2 setups pre open set up a long and a short off VWAP off levels...





Market opens and pushes into Weekly 1SD(VAH) and the Weekly VP POC / powerful levels
So either one of two things will happen... The market will GAP n Go... RTH gap...
Or will partially fill or fill the gap...


Probabilities of Filling
Historically, gaps in the S&P 500 futures follow specific statistical patterns. For a gap of this size (under 0.50%), the probabilities are generally higher for at least a partial fill compared to "Breakaway" gaps.

Target LevelProbability of Hit (Intraday)Typical Timing

50% Fill (6,971.50)~78% – 85%Often occurs within the first 60–90 minutes.
100% Fill / Close (6,960.50)~65% – 72%High likelihood if the opening range (first 30 min) is broken to the downside.
Gap and Run (No Fill)~15% – 20%Usually occurs on high-volume news days (e.g., CPI or FOMC).


So we have a HIGH PROBABILITY the GAP will at least partially fill..We are at Weekly 1SD and Weekly POC
what is going on that will fuel a gap n go ?




And finally the 3 levels I highlighted pre market open materialize...No predictions just a process based
on probabilities and informed decision making.








Anyhow my day was done earlier...Kudos for anyone holding the shorts from the open.

Inside day and BOOM takes out PDLow !!! 50 pt trade for some

Cheers

ES monthly VWAP levels,,,,

I should have mentioned it in my above post.

Plot it on your chart,,,

1sd to 1sd was not on my bingo card today.

Incredible action on the charts today...

Areas of Interest to me this morning,,,ES

Cheers Kev,
Looked the right areas (yet again ) for your vwap & levels etc


Just a quick comparison on my brokers Mt4 CFD chart
(slightly different pricing to e-mini futures, of course, but I enjoy looking at the market maker moves while never actually trading this instrument)

all the best pal


US500

.

That looks like a "Hot Combo" Pete !!!
Its the weekend now so I think I shall do some monkeying with my PPs and VWAP

Thanks for the beauty of a chart

Well it looks like my Daily Pivot is darn well almost to the tick in alignment with yours



And for sh!ts and giggle here's a little vid where I have overlaid the US500 CFD chart over the ES futures chart 15m TF
The Pivots are anchored to the ES chart... But you can look at the charts and see they are,,,,,,,,,,,
(have to click on the mp4 file to see video)

Attachment 4

Great work Kev.
I reckon I will just stick with currencies as that is my history.
And in essence whether I look at indices charts, metals, currencies, energies or even crypto it appears to me that chart overlays will usually look the same / similar.
As the market drivers imho (market makers & liquidity providors) operate to & from those spots where big players Tier & Institutions do their business of "collections" lol, those collections being the introduction of liquidity at what I just call "trader attractors" things such as pivs, day & session opens, prior hi-lo's & such.

Those attractors to me are not 'directional' indications
As price can/will go up and or down from those points so for me they are a starting point only
(similar I guess to points of control and market profiles, which show up where 'past' liquidity influxes or departures have occured).

ie it's still not a set for me to trade success with any firm guarantee
bringing us right back to what we have dicussed at length that, in the end, trading is the operation of ourselves and how we conduct ourselves at the coalface,
us therefore likely being the determinator of, ultimately over time, winning or losing rather than all the vagaries of the various price movements.

It is ourselves in the end I reckon lol .


ps I should also say I am not a pivot trader, but I know where all the pivs are on the chart each day incl the prime monthly / weekly ones where the big guys & institutions may well be taking their own interest in attacking or defending their positions.

Again I just see ALL those lines/areas on my charts as places of interest as to what the market may do from there,
after any fakes 'n flips also to shake out the tree .

Tis a fun game in the end, with many frustrations, and weird price movements at times,
while at other times it all seems to fit like a glove
(if only we knew ahead which was which hahaaa).

All the best as always Kev, and have a great weekend

Cheers Pete

Shake the tree is right lol.... How many times have I been shaken out of a trade...Countless LOL !!!

When I got my start in trading back in the cough cough 80s in stocks on the VSE Vancouver Stock Exchange...
Now that was a bucket shop pump n dump boiler room exchange lol...

Big guy ...promoter was Murray Pezim...Very famous in local lore here... He had a term shaking the rabbits out of the trees or bushes ?
I cant recall exactly.....Actually was one of his "companies" I turned a 3k stock buy into 9k in one week !! at 20 yrs old or so...
THen lost every last penny AND owed the broker money I went negative on the trades immediatley after

Now 45 ish yrs later....yikes... I still get shaken out of the Fkn trees LOL. !!! mind my french..

God Bless you Murray !

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/murra...-dies-1.166382

Your comment "Shake out the tree" I think triggered me


Edit: Great little article about "THE PEZ"
even financed a ALI fight !!!!!
https://golddiscovery.com/legacy/use...s-mining-story