Only EURUSD

EURUSD/DXY H1
trendlines,SMC

EURUSD – current state (H1 + H4)
H1
R: 1.18244 → CHOCH DOWN (invalidation of intraday short bias)
R: 1.17828 → BOS DOWN (current flip / control level)
Price ~1.1780 → still below BOS, bearish intraday bias remains valid
H4
S: 1.1760 → decision support
S: 1.1742 → BOS UP (H4 line in the sand)
Above these levels, the move is still only a correction within the higher-TF structure
One-sentence summary

1. Below 1.17828 = bearish intraday
2. Below 1.1760 = pressure on H4 BOS
3. 1.1742 = decision point for the H4 trend
4. Above 1.18244 = short bias invalidated

So far, 1.1828 is not a confirmed support.


Is 1.17828 a valid support?

Condition 1 – Reclaim

1. H1 close ABOVE 1.17828
2. not just a wick, but a candle body close

Condition 2 – Hold

1. pullback to 1.17828
2. buyer reaction (rejection to the downside)

the level is confirmed as support

Condition 3 – Structure

1. formation of an H1 higher low ABOVE 1.17828
2. subsequent break of the pullback high

What is not sufficient
a single spike above the level
a quick return below 1.17828
a wick without a close

If:

1. EURUSD holds 1.1828 even with DXY > 97.43
   → that is a very strong bullish signal

If:

1. EURUSD falls back below 1.1828 while DXY > 97.43
   → it was a false reclaim

Hi Mr walker here...what do y'all think about the current trade!?

I'm going with maybe we get a 100 Pips upside like G/U yesterday....???? ;-) Just kidding

EURUSD and DXY H1
update
rising wedges..
and the winner is...

Yes, both wedges are technically bearish,
but what matters is which one confirms first,
and DXY has priority over EURUSD.

Where the difference is: which wedge actually matters
DXY rising wedge (H1)

1. it is the market driver
2. it is above the H4 CHOCH UP (97.43)
3. it forms after an impulse up
4. it has a clear structure of HL + weakening HH

If the DXY wedge breaks DOWN:

1. USD weakens
2. EURUSD gains room to move higher

EURUSD rising wedge (H1)

1. it is reactive
2. it forms against the prior downtrend
3. still below 1.18415 (CHOCH UP trigger)

Its downside break:

1. is only a continuation of the correction
2. not a new market decision

The key is the CHOCH UP on DXY.

DXY:

1. H4 CHOCH UP = 97.43
2. price is above
3. H1 is forming an HL structure

USD remains in control as long as:

1. we do not return below 97.43
2. and do not accept below it

I know how to send a message and still don't know how to read one coming back my way... lol BTW While we're all in limbo waiting here's some proof that people back then were happier and more trustworthy. Not sickos and child predators. BTW... At that time EVERY PIECE OF VIDEO WAS REAL. You could splice footage together but cropping and pasting was still a vision like having personal computer. It didn't exist, I'm that old...

Inserted Video

This is a textbook picture of volatility compression on H4, where:

1. the market is quiet
2. moving averages are flat
3. and a breakout is only a matter of time — not if, but which direction.

With macro forces neutral and value firmly established, EURUSD is best traded as a range: fade extremes, ignore breakouts.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/29XMwtg2/

Big picture read (macro → FX)

EURUSD right now is basically the pressure gauge between:

1. US rates staying restrictive but peaking
2. Europe stabilizing but not accelerating

That creates balance, not trend. The POC stack confirms that.

The POC cluster: 1.1581 – 1.1689

Multiple 4H POCs stacked in that zone tells you one thing very clearly:
This is where the market agrees on “fair value.”

Implications:

1. Price is accepted here → chop, rotation, mean reversion.
2. Breaks outside this zone need fresh information (rates, USD, risk).
3. Until then, initiative traders get faded.

So structurally:

1. Value area
2. Magnet zone
3. Fake breakout risk is high

What price just did (important)
You had:

1. Strong impulsive move up (USD weakness / rate relief)
2. Extension above value
3. Failure to hold above prior high
4. Roll-over back into value

That’s classic initiative → responsive handoff.

Meaning:

1. Buyers tried to reprice EURUSD higher
2. Market said: “Not yet”
3. Now we’re back to rotation logic

Key levels from chart

Upper boundary (risk-on confirmation)
~1.1815 – 1.1850

1. Prior high + poor acceptance above
2. Needs:
   1. Softer US data
   2. Dovish Jefferson tone
   3. Falling front-end yields

3. If accepted above → opens 1.195–1.20 macro leg

Value zone
1.1689 – 1.1581

1. Balance
2. Expect:
   1. Chop
   2. Mean reversion
   3. VWAP / POC-to-POC trades

3. Trend strategies die here

Lower boundary (USD strength / risk-off)
~1.1515 – 1.1550

1. Acceptance below = regime shift
2. Would imply:
   1. Higher US yields
   2. Inflation expectations ticking up
   3. Hawkish Fed rhetoric

How today’s US macro fits into this

Consumer Sentiment + Inflation Expectations @ 16pm CET

1. If inflation expectations stay elevated → USD bid → pressure toward lower value
2. If sentiment weakens hard → rates down → EURUSD back to upper value

Jefferson speaks

1. Any pushback against early cuts = EURUSD capped
2. Any acknowledgment of disinflation progress = upside attempt

Market psychology right now
This is not a conviction market.
It’s:

1. “We think rates will fall”
2. “But we’re not ready to price it aggressively”

Which equals:
Range first, trend later

Why range trading beats breakout trading here

Macro = neutral, not catalytic
Right now we have:

1. No decisive Fed pivot
2. No inflation shock
3. No growth re-acceleration in Europe

That means:
There is no macro force strong enough to reprice fair value.
When macro can’t reprice value, price rotates around it.

Volume profile confirms acceptance

That POC stack between 1.158–1.169 isn’t noise, it’s agreement.
High agreement →

1. Breakouts lack follow-through
2. Stops get hunted
3. Momentum traders donate liquidity

Which is why:
Initiative trades fail, responsive trades win

Failed auction = range signal
Price already tried to:

1. Break above value
2. Hold above prior highs

It failed.
That’s not bullish or bearish, that’s rejection of trend.
Markets that fail auctions don’t trend next…
They balance.

Base case

1. EURUSD rotates inside 1.158 – 1.169
2. Expect:
   1. Slow grind
   2. Mean reversion
   3. Liquidity sweeps at edges

Best trades

1. Fade strength near 1.168–1.169
2. Buy weakness near 1.158–1.160
3. Tight invalidation just outside value

Worst trades

1. Chasing mid-range
2. Breakout entries without:
   1. Yield confirmation
   2. USD follow-through
   3. Acceptance outside value

What would invalidate range trading?
Only two things:

1. Acceptance above 1.181 → new higher value
2. Acceptance below 1.155 → USD regime shift

Until then:
Treat every breakout as guilty until proven innocent

Follow the money.

exactly, sniper mode. Find/follow the target

Hey FOREX, I'd like to order 100 Pips for my buds.... Take the gun out and place it on the table...now. That's a number 3, you don't want me to go to 4.

First resistance is holding but looks like the risk has gone () and that 1.1785 and 1.1765 now will hold for more attacks from the bulls.

The pair is stabilizing at 1.1800 as things stabilizing and some weekend exits hit. We didn't got NFP this Friday but the report will be out the next week, and also the US cpi will be released so we'll get more volatility.

For me its the end of this week, the weekend is very near. Time for some fun! I wish you my best, be safe!

Price is currently trading just North of 1.182 with a couple of hours to go after getting rejected at 1.18262 mid morning. That mild pullback is less than 1/3 of the session range low 1.17700ish and the price action is smooth as silk (right now) working back towards the high of day. Coming off the very tight almost dead asleep contraction overnight my gut tell me this is only the beginning of a very powerful "Swing Trade". Fun Fact, the term 'Swing Trade' was coined by Oliver Velez who was the original visionary of trading the NY Stock Market Session open when all the other floor traders waited about half an hour to see where the Big Mice were moving the cheese. A Barron's article with him on the front page dubbed him the 'Messiah of Wall Street'. He spent years losing to figure out how to win. He taught his concepts to the traders for the likes of Goldman and Lehman back in the day. With the internet he now teaches traders across the globe and he is very big on Crypto accumulation only. I have a couple other coaches that fill in pieces around his concepts. Trade ATS and the Rumors (Doug and Sylvia) who I'd steal from Doug if I could because she is a absolute doll with balls. What happened today with EUR/USD is textbook Oliver Velez and the best part is his teaching are stupid simple right along with Doug, Sylvia and Wade. I have no affiliation with any of them but I really found a lot of value and actionable information with those channels on YT. Information overload is everywhere these days but it beats the hell out of the old ways blindly pecking away in the dark, alone, with very little useful intel. I spent several thousand 90's dollars just for one week in a class in Katy, Tx when I lived in Atlanta, Georgia going there and paying for airfare, meals, hotel, car and tuition because that was all there was back then. Shoutout to 'Merlin' our coach for a week. You young people have this internet at your fingertips and here I sit on a Friday connected to the world for practically nothing financially speaking. Crazy, right? One last coach I like but can't begin to keep up with is Ross Cameron at Warrior Trading. His account size allows him to make trades most can't but he still has risk management that can be applied to any account. Many think he's an imposter because they can't match his skill set. You have to know your lane and perfect it. We all fuck up, fall down, get frustrated, pissed, and depressed. The winners get up and keep trying even when Life throws a Black Swan in your path and you have to start from scratch all over again. Winners never quit and quitters never win. Stay thirsty! H4 chart attached

interesting stuff, I'm in for the ride, I try to keep it simple as possible. Find the trend and flow with it, move when it moves. I'm working on both scalping and swings

I agree those are all good youtube channels to learn from. I’ve learned a lot from Ross and Wade but also recently found The Rumors channel and have seen a few videos so far. Ross is a good teacher and explains the ins and outs of trading and how to scalp daily runners in the stock market. He does that really well. Wade is also a good teacher showing how market structure works and why it does certain things over and over again.

The Rumors and
https://www.tradeats.com/about flow together very well

Oops I meant Wade (not Doug) in my post above he is the Trade ats guy. Corrected now
I will check out more of the Rumors for sure

The EUR/USD dropped below 1.1850 on Monday but found support near 1.1800 on Friday, after reaching a weekly low of 1.1765 earlier that same day.

The pair is currently gathering momentum for the coming week while maintaining a short-term bearish trend below the 1.1835/38 resistance zone and the 1.1875 monthly high. On the downside, short-term support at 1.1785 is preventing a retest of the weekly low.

Key Scenarios:

Bearish Breakout: If a break occurs on the lower side, the levels at 1.1728, 1.1700, and 1.1670 will likely be tested by sellers.

Bullish Rebound: If buyers gain momentum above the overhead resistance levels, 1.1895–1.1900 and 1.1918/30 are the next targets.

Weekly volatility (range) 101 pips

Significant news - Retail Sales, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Claims & US CPI


Have great weekend!

Daily

I am Confused where the market going on

Wade posted this today. It is excellent and it addresses the question mark above ^^^^The 'Dip' that the E/U is doing since Friday's close and Sunday's open is a perfect example of manipulation to rattle Longs or just hit their stops and grab liquidity. Some are getting shaken out, I don't sense any real fear on a grander scale (at least not yet) while trading down -0.01%. On the daily chart its obvious the pair is in a contraction period and the only question you need to figure is where is the money? where are traders trapped? Above or below this area? If you don't know or think you know then you are just guessing. Clue: Where did price come from to get here at this contraction area and why did it happen here?

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