Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Amongst the trading tribe, you do things that can identify and prove that you are different from the crowd - A real, serious and professional trader.

Don't just proclaim that you are a trader.

Trader does not mean that the sole objective is to make money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd, which is unsuccessful

Do things which can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.

Each day, from around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or RISK OFF.

No indicator can do this, just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment, as one MAJOR fundamental fact, whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL, or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid-19 variant, can cause the markets to go down 1000 points, as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do.

That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading developed during 2003 when I started trading Forex, and later on during 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.

It is no longer possible to trade without a STOP LOSS PERIOD.

Having a STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of the 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP, which makes it almost impossible to make profits over a period of one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world-changing events.

Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars. Initially, learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account, just as I did for a period of three years, before I made my first Real Funds Trade.

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK, then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.

SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself, the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE, which we teach you, and that is Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money). Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear and greed. Of course, we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader, so our course is for a period of three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods, and we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.

20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators, which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points, which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans, which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than the Data Releases each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched, as you can clearly see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets, especially in North America, is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do, and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines.

Thursday, September 25, 2014
A Preview of Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4zHYD5MY44...teenbarger.jpg

One of the great disappointments I encounter when I read writings on the topic of trading psychology is that they invariably touch upon the same themes: discipline, controlling emotions, etc. Having worked with traders and portfolio managers for over a decade now, there is so much more to the psychology of trading than "sticking to your process" that I decided I had to write a book about what I was experiencing but wasn't reading. The title reflects that interest: Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes.

I think Ted Hayes hit on something important in his recent interview. He pointed out that the personality traits relevant to success among early career traders are different from those that generate success for experienced ones. Perhaps so much writing concerns discipline and emotional control, because those are the dominant concerns of the new traders who buy the books, haunt the websites, and seek help.

At several of the firms where I work, no one even gets an interview unless they have years of experience managing significant capital with a solid track record of profitability and risk management. So by the time those traders join the firm, discipline and emotional control are not screaming priorities. Instead, they deal with other challenges. In Trading Psychology 2.0, I refer to these challenges by A-B-C:

* Adapting to changing markets
* Building on strengths
* Creating creativity

In adapting to different markets by leveraging their strengths and generating new ideas, successful market participants are not so different from successful businesses in fast-changing industries, such as technology or social media. When markets change from year to year, stasis is a formula for failure. The successful trader, like the successful tech firm, must constantly innovate. Moreover, once traders generate those innovations, they must turn best practices--what they do that is successful--and turn them into robust, best practices.

I think this is very, very important: What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines. Conscientiousness makes for success, but it is openness that makes for adaptation. Trading psychology as a field has done a fine job of articulating the importance of discipline. I hope that the new book will broaden the discussion to include a research-informed look at mastering change and innovation.

In order to be able to help you better, you must share your thoughts and your QUESTIONS.

Call me at 011 819 275 7780 Riviere Rouge, Quebec, Canada or email me at [email protected]


WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

In the last twenty years, top FOREX traders rarely earned over 5% a month or 60% a year and NEVER more than three years in a row. There are reasons for this.

My students are expected to earn 5% a month under my guidance for 90 days, the length of my hands-on teaching.

Forex trading presents vast opportunities for profit through its high liquidity and leverage options. However, it also carries inherent risks, demanding a thorough understanding of market mechanics, disciplined trading strategies, and effective risk management. As a dynamic and complex financial market, Forex offers global challenges and rewards to participants.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

News from around the world. Please CLICK on the link below.

https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2

5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

Please sign up for our 90-day Forex Trading and Information course by sending an E-transfer of 100..00 Canadian dollars to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com

"Trader" does not mean the sole objective is making money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd, which is unsuccessful

Do things that can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.

Each day, from around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or OFF.

No indicator can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down or up 500 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do. This sometimes happens in one day, so normal charting cannot work.

That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading was developed in 2003 when I started trading Forex, and later in 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.

It is no longer possible to trade Forex without a STOP LOSS.

A STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP, making it almost impossible to make profits over one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world-changing events.

Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars, INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade on March 9, 2006, 18 years ago.

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK, you are wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.

SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself, the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE, which we teach you in Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money). Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear, and greed. Of course, we want to ensure you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader, so our course is for three months. So we can teach you the right trading methods. We can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.

20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators, which include not only the common ones. It consists of understanding supply and demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points, which you can see daily on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans, which we also help you develop and explain WHY. We review these Winning Trade Plans every three months or more frequently if market circumstances require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than the Data released daily worldwide. It includes reports and articles that are extremely well researched, as you can see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets, especially in North America, is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't Forex trading, they stare at screens and force trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

Quoting perfection is
What are the key principles of risk management in forex trading, especially considering the influence of central banks and market sentiment? How do you determine risk-on or risk-off conditions, and how does it affect currency flows? Considering both fundamental factors and technical indicators, what impact could the British election have on forex markets? That election took place on Thursday, July 4, 2024.

The answers to your excellent questions will happen by registering to post on Forex Factory, so you can post your questions or comments on my thread.

PERCEPTION is not REALITY. Most commercial and retail Forex traders have no idea what QE (Quantitative Easing) and QT (Quantitative Tightening) do to CAUSE INFLATION.

If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com

The fee is 100.00 dollars in Canadian funds from your bank account by E-Transfer.

We believe in a hands-on approach at a more than reasonable cost for a comprehensive service.

We can all see by looking at the link below, the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30, the patterns keep repeating, and you all have a chance if you want to learn to become very wealthy over the next year by signing up. You have zero risk, as the information that you will have access to is invaluable.

Here is the link.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF TODAY and every Forex trading day from Sunday at 2:00 AM Eastern Standard Time in Europe to 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time when North American Equity Markets start trading at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time on Monday.

This X-RAY and PATTERN repeats between Sunday and Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when All Forex Trading stops until 3:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when New Zealand opens for trading, followed by Asia at 8:00 PM, Europe at 2:00 AM and North America at 9:30 AM.

ABSOLUTE FORTUNES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE YOU UNDERSTAND !!! And you show that you have the DISCIPLINE by your results to CONTROL your FEAR, GREED and EGO !!! The markets are always right until they are not.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. I will spend a minimum of 30 minutes with you on the telephone to answer any of your questions at NO COST TO YOU. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyr[email protected]

5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

NOTE: PLEASE REGISTER TO POST ON THIS THREAD. WE CAN THEN HELP YOU BECOME SKILLED WITH 24/7 Guidance. It costs nothing to register and takes less than 5 minutes.

CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND LOOK AT THE REPEATING X-RAY Each Forex Trading Day.

You Need To Act So I Can Help You DISCOVER if you have the SKILLS to become a winning Forex trader using LEVERAGE of 100 to 1.

Our Forex Trade Plan from April 1, 2025, until June 30, 2025, is SHORT 50 UNITS of DOW 30, SHORT 50 UNITS of SP500, Go LONG 100 ounces of Gold and 5000 Ounces of Silver. I usually choose one of the MAJOR Currency Pairs to SHORT or GO LONG ON.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

CLICK ON THIS LINK - IT IS THE 5-Minute Chart Of Dow 30. See how the KNOWN PATTERNS REPEAT -
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

THE WRONG PERCEPTION WORLDWIDE CONTINUES IN THE STOCK MARKETS.

WHY? Most Traders and EXPERTS do not understand ECONOMICS. READ THE April 2025 JOHN HUSSMAN NEWSLETTER. It will be the next post after this one.

HE CALLED IT PERFECTLY. RATE CUTS CANNOT STOP A RECESSION AND OTHER SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN THE MANIPULATED STOCK MARKETS.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF the last 24 hours as it repeats every day, which is why my results are spectacular and PROFITABLE.

CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND SIGN UP OR CALL ME FOR A ONE-ON-ONE 30-minute discussion. Thanks - BWM

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

You can also reach me by emailing [email protected] for further information on how I can help you make money and educate you on matters of most importance in our ever-changing world.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

In the last twenty years, top FOREX traders rarely earned over 5% a month or 60% a year and NEVER more than three years in a row. There are reasons for this.

My students are expected to earn 5% a month under my guidance for 90 days, the length of my hands-on teaching.

Forex trading presents vast opportunities for profit through its high liquidity and leverage options. However, it also carries inherent risks, demanding a thorough understanding of market mechanics, disciplined trading strategies, and effective risk management. As a dynamic and complex financial market, Forex offers global challenges and rewards to participants.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

News from around the world. Please CLICK on the link below.

https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2

5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

Please sign up for our 90-day Forex Trading and Information course by sending an E-transfer of 100..00 Canadian dollars to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com

"Trader" does not mean the sole objective is making money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd, which is unsuccessful

Do things that can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.

Each day, from around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or OFF.

No indicator can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down or up 500 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do. This sometimes happens in one day, so normal charting cannot work.

That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading was developed in 2003 when I started trading Forex, and later in 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.

It is no longer possible to trade Forex without a STOP LOSS.

A STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP, making it almost impossible to make profits over one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world-changing events.

Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars, INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade on March 9, 2006, 18 years ago.

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK, you are wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.

SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself, the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE, which we teach you in Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money). Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear, and greed. Of course, we want to ensure you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader, so our course is for three months. So we can teach you the right trading methods. We can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.

20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators, which include not only the common ones. It consists of understanding supply and demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points, which you can see daily on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans, which we also help you develop and explain WHY. We review these Winning Trade Plans every three months or more frequently if market circumstances require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than the Data released daily worldwide. It includes reports and articles that are extremely well researched, as you can see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets, especially in North America, is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't Forex trading, they stare at screens and force trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

Quoting perfection is
What are the key principles of risk management in forex trading, especially considering the influence of central banks and market sentiment? How do you determine risk-on or risk-off conditions, and how does it affect currency flows? Considering both fundamental factors and technical indicators, what impact could the British election have on forex markets? That election took place on Thursday, July 4, 2024.

The answers to your excellent questions will happen by registering to post on Forex Factory, so you can post your questions or comments on my thread.

PERCEPTION is not REALITY. Most commercial and retail Forex traders have no idea what QE (Quantitative Easing) and QT (Quantitative Tightening) do to CAUSE INFLATION.

If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com

The fee is 100.00 dollars in Canadian funds from your bank account by E-Transfer.

We believe in a hands-on approach at a more than reasonable cost for a comprehensive service.

We can all see by looking at the link below, the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30, the patterns keep repeating, and you all have a chance if you want to learn to become very wealthy over the next year by signing up. You have zero risk, as the information that you will have access to is invaluable.

Here is the link.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF TODAY and every Forex trading day from Sunday at 2:00 AM Eastern Standard Time in Europe to 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time when North American Equity Markets start trading at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time on Monday.

This X-RAY and PATTERN repeats between Sunday and Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when All Forex Trading stops until 3:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when New Zealand opens for trading, followed by Asia at 8:00 PM, Europe at 2:00 AM and North America at 9:30 AM.

ABSOLUTE FORTUNES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE YOU UNDERSTAND !!! And you show that you have the DISCIPLINE by your results to CONTROL your FEAR, GREED and EGO !!! The markets are always right until they are not.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. I will spend a minimum of 30 minutes with you on the telephone to answer any of your questions at NO COST TO YOU. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyr[email protected]

5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

NOTE: PLEASE REGISTER TO POST ON THIS THREAD. WE CAN THEN HELP YOU BECOME SKILLED WITH 24/7 Guidance. It costs nothing to register and takes less than 5 minutes.

CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND LOOK AT THE REPEATING X-RAY Each Forex Trading Day.

You Need To Act So I Can Help You DISCOVER if you have the SKILLS to become a winning Forex trader using LEVERAGE of 100 to 1.

Our Forex Trade Plan from April 1, 2025, until June 30, 2025, is SHORT 50 UNITS of DOW 30, SHORT 50 UNITS of SP500, Go LONG 100 ounces of Gold and 5000 Ounces of Silver. I usually choose one of the MAJOR Currency Pairs to SHORT or GO LONG ON.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

CLICK ON THIS LINK - IT IS THE 5-Minute Chart Of Dow 30. See how the KNOWN PATTERNS REPEAT -
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

THE WRONG PERCEPTION WORLDWIDE CONTINUES IN THE STOCK MARKETS.

WHY? Most Traders and EXPERTS do not understand ECONOMICS. READ THE April 2025 JOHN HUSSMAN NEWSLETTER. It will be the next post after this one.

HE CALLED IT PERFECTLY. RATE CUTS CANNOT STOP A RECESSION AND OTHER SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN THE MANIPULATED STOCK MARKETS.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF the last 24 hours as it repeats every day, which is why my results are spectacular and PROFITABLE.

CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND SIGN UP OR CALL ME FOR A ONE-ON-ONE 30-minute discussion. Thanks - BWM

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

You can also reach me by emailing [email protected] for further information on how I can help you make money and educate you on matters of most importance in our ever-changing world.


IF YOU JUST WANT MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CALL ME ON MY CELLPHONE IN MONTREAL AT 438 995 2549

I have finished my Forex Trading for the day, and I start again at the open in Frankfurt, Germany, at 2:00 A.M. Eastern Standard Time

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Gold Extremes’ Drawdowns
Adam Hamilton
CPA, Principal & Co-Founder of Zeal LLC

February 6, 2026

Gold just soared to some of its most-overbought levels on record, climaxing its largest cyclical bull ever. That was followed by one of gold’s worst down days in history, formally slaying that monster bull. That popular-speculative-mania topping means a serious reckoning is underway. Gold’s drawdowns after past extremes offer insights into the likely magnitude of the carnage traders need to gird themselves to expect.

Since 2000, I’ve written 1,212 of these weekly web essays. That discipline has led to a well-established workflow to release them on time. Wednesday mornings I decide on relevant topics, then that day I do all the necessary research including building spreadsheets and charts. The essays are written and proofed on Thursdays,
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Last Thursday the 29th, it was a different world when I penned an essay warning about gold’s popular speculative mania. Gold closed at an all-time record high of $5,394 that day, its eighth in as many trading days. In that short span alone, gold had soared an astounding 17.6%! That annualized to a ludicrously-unsustainable 550% ascent pace! So I took a hardline contrarian stance in my conclusion that day...

“The bottom line is gold has soared into a dangerous popular speculative mania. Gold’s recent ascent pace is absurd and wildly-unsustainable, driving its most-extreme overboughtness since January 1980’s notorious bubble. That sure didn’t end well for gold, nor did the handful of bull toppings where it was more overbought way back in the 1970s. Extreme technicals and herd sentiment portend imminent reckonings.”

“These have proven big-and-fast selloffs on the order of 20% to 30%, which are necessary to rebalance away mania extremes. While brutal-enough for gold, silver and gold stocks really amplify its big losses catastrophically cratering. Popular speculative manias never last long, their frenzied fear-of-missing-out chasing buying soon burning itself out. The subsequent big symmetrical selloffs are violent and unforgiving.”

Fortuitously from a timing standpoint, heavy Chinese selling erupted overnight into Friday the 30th. That essay was released that morning, and by the time the dust settled in US trading gold had plummeted an eye-popping 10.3% that day alone! That proved its third-worst daily loss since 1971 in US-dollar terms, which effectively means ever. For all intents and purposes, dollar-gold history was born in August 1971.

That’s when Richard Nixon catastrophically severed the US dollar from its essential gold standard. That unleashed the near-total dollar devaluation and relentless price inflation ever since. Before January 1934, the dollar gold price was hard-pegged at $20.67 per ounce. Franklin Roosevelt then devalued the dollar to $35.00 per ounce, where it mostly remained until August 1971. Only since then are gold prices market-driven.

Had gold kept surging rather than collapsing last Friday, interest in my contrarian essay would’ve been low. But there’s nothing like a top-0.02% down day to galvanize traders to reconsider their to-the-moon outlooks. Since 1971, that 10.3% plummeting was only behind a 13.2% crash in January 1980 and another 12.1% one in February 1983! The main question I heard from readers since is “how bad could this get?”

The most-rational and conservative way to illuminate that is analyzing drawdowns after gold’s past extreme toppings. In the vast 55.1-year span since January 1971, gold has weathered every kind of market environment imaginable. Gold’s trends can be broken down empirically by looking at 10%+ closing moves in one direction before 10%+ countertrend reversals end them. There have been lots of those!

In this effective entire dollar-gold history, it has enjoyed 32 cyclical bulls with 20%+ gains. There were also another 10 smaller 10%+ uplegs that fell short of achieving bull status. Those were punctuated by 17 cyclical bears with 20%+ losses, and an additional 24 10%+ corrections. Bulls or uplegs are always inevitably followed by bears or corrections, markets are forever-cyclical. The latter are often proportional.

Unbelievably in the 27.8 months between early October 2023 to late January 2026, this latest gold bull powered a jaw-dropping 196.4% higher! Gold nearly tripled in that span without a single 10%+ correction, which is wildly-unprecedented. That makes gold’s epic monster cyclical bull that just topped the biggest-ever by far in US-dollar terms! As this table of gold’s top-25 bulls since 1971 shows, nothing else is even close.

https://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/def...ah020626-1.gif

Gold’s prior biggest cyclical bull was a 127.9% moonshot into January 1980, which continuously held that record for a whopping 45.8 years until mid-October 2025! As I explained last week before gold plunged, that was an infamous bubble topping climaxing a dangerous popular speculative mania. Soberingly gold wouldn’t regain that January-1980 peak of $850 even in nominal terms until 28.0 years later in January 2008!

Gold’s reckoning out of that last mania climax was brutal, plummeting a skull-crushing 43.4% in just 1.9 months! Holy freaking cow that would be painful. But thankfully that terminal surge into January 1980 was far more extreme than recent months’. Gold’s ascent pace during that known-bubble cyclical bull was 48.6% per month, the most extreme ever! Today’s bull cresting last Thursday averaged just 7.1% monthly.

That’s considerably milder than gold’s third-to-fifth-largest cyclical bulls averaging 16.9%, but still much sharper than its sixth-to-ninth-biggest ones averaging 4.3%. But all those and indeed all 24 previous bulls in this table were followed by big-and-fast drawdowns. Gold’s next-five-biggest cyclical bulls after today’s averaged massive subsequent selloffs of 26.3% in just 2.5 months! A similar drawdown today would be rough.

From last Thursday’s peak, a 25% cyclical bear today would slam gold way back down near $4,045. That would seriously hurt gold investors, but they could weather it. The real problem is what such a big gold reckoning would do to the rest of the precious-metals complex. Silver tends to about double material gold moves, while the major gold stocks of the leading GDX sector ETF tend to amplify their metal by 2x to 3x!

While gold was in a popular speculative mania last week, that was still way less extreme than January 1980’s notorious bubble. So to be more conservative and dilute its drawdown’s impact on averages, consider the reckonings after gold’s next-ten-biggest cyclical bulls after today’s. Those still averaged hefty 20.8% losses over just 2.1 months! A similar 20% one today would hammer gold near $4,315 by late March!

Such carnage would imply silver collapsing 40%ish and GDX between 40% to 60%! Such horrendous losses would be unrecoverable for older investors nearing retirement, and an existential threat for any speculators employing any leverage at all. One hallmark of popular speculative manias is surging use of leverage, which was sure evident in gold’s crazy fear-of-missing-out momentum-chasing buying in January.

As of Wednesday’s data cutoff for this essay, gold had already plummeted 13.3% in just two trading days as of this Monday! So a 20%-to-25% total drawdown sure doesn’t sound like a stretch. Cyclical bulls are followed by often-proportional cyclical bears because bull toppings’ extreme technicals and sentiment need to be rebalanced. Excessively-stretched prices need to normalize, and outsized herd greed bled off.

This latest gold bull was not only the largest ever by far, but also peaked at some of dollar gold’s most-overbought levels ever. While various overbought-oversold indicators exist, my favorite is a simple one I developed for trading gold stocks over two decades ago. It is simply calculated by dividing gold’s close by its underlying 200-day moving average, which yields a multiple that I called Relative Gold or rGold.

That renders gold off its baseline 200dma in constant-percentage terms. Charting these multiples over time reveals trading ranges, with often-well-defined extreme-overbought and extreme-oversold zones. 200dmas are ideal baselines to measure gold’s stretchedness, because they move slowly yet still evolve with changing prevailing gold prices. Last week’s essay included an updated rGold chart and analysis.

Last Wednesday the 28th, gold had soared an unbelievable 43.4% above its 200dma on close! As I warned last Thursday before gold’s selling hit, that 1.434x rGold read was a wild 45.9-year secular high in overboughtness! Gold hadn’t stretched way up to such extremes since all the way back in early March 1980! That was a clear confirmation gold had skyrocketed into the first popular speculative mania since then.

Out of all 13,892 trading days since January 1971, that ranked as gold’s 136th-most-overbought close or top 0.98%. But all the more-overbought days were clustered in only four previous episodes, prior mighty-cyclical-bull toppings. This table sorts all gold’s biggest cyclical bulls since 1971 by their rGold multiples the days gold crested. Today’s gold bull is listed at 1.432x, last Thursday’s level as gold edged up 0.1% to peak.

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The only times dollar gold has ever been more overbought than last week were in monster-cyclical-gold-bull peaks into January 1980, June 1973, October 1979, and April 1974. The subsequent big-and-fast drawdowns weren’t pretty, averaging a savage 27.4% in just 2.9 months as I warned last week! Adding in the next-most-
overbought bull after today’s doesn’t help much, as the other top five averaged 26.3% in 2.5 months.

Again expanding that to gold’s ten-most-overbought bull toppings excluding today’s to dilute the impact of January 1980’s bubble bursting, gold’s subsequent average drawdown was 20.7% over just 2.1 months. That’s remarkably close to that earlier 20.8% over 2.1 months which was the average vicious bear after the next-ten-largest cyclical gold bulls. That’s about how much and how fast gold is likely to plunge here.

A 21%ish drawdown in a couple months or so would hammer gold back down near $4,261 by late March. Again that would almost certainly translate into disastrous 42% losses for silver and 42% to 63% for the major gold miners’ stocks! I sure hope that doesn’t come to pass, but that’s what gold’s own half-century-plus history implies is probable. And this latest gold bull’s extremeness argues for even-bigger selloffs.

Again this was gold’s largest-ever cyclical bull by far, nearly tripling in just over a couple years! And that catapulted it to climaxing at its most-overbought levels in almost a half-century, soon after gold’s last popular-speculative-mania bubble burst! Often-proportional bears following huge bulls are necessary and healthy to rebalance extreme technicals and sentiment. That process takes a couple months, not a couple days.

Considering all this, I’d be shocked if gold doesn’t at least retreat 25% before this drawdown fully runs its course. Likely silver would double that, and major gold stocks would double to triple it. Gold would have to fall all the way back near $4,045 to hit a 25% drawdown. How far past monster super-overbought gold bulls fell relative to their 200dmas buttresses that target range, solidifying it relative to historical precedent.

Gold cyclical bears tend to maul it back down near or under its 200-day moving average. Midweek that is still way down near $3,797, but is rising at a rapid clip thanks to January’s frenzied gold chasing. It surged $178 in this past month, which would boost gold’s 200dma near $3,974 in a couple months if this steep 200dma ascent slope persists. That would make for a nice 200dma convergence around a 25% drawdown.

Gold’s ten-biggest cyclical bears since 1971 averaged brutal 37.2% drawdowns bottoming at just 0.889x gold’s 200dma! That sure sounds scary. But looking at the ten specific drawdowns following gold’s ten-most-overbought bull toppings excluding today’s clocked in at much-higher rGold bottomings near 1.059x. The caveat is these are cyclical bulls and bears measured by 10%+ closing swings, not broader secular ones!

As an example, gold’s most-extreme bull ever into January 1980 skyrocketed 127.9%. Its subsequent drawdown was again horrific at 43.4% over just 1.9 months. From there gold soared 42.8% in another cyclical bull, followed by a 12.0% correction. Then gold climbed another 17.5% before plunging a soul-crushing 58.3%.
Through this entire secular-bear span from January 1980 to June 1982, gold plummeted 65.1%!

Gold doesn’t need to collapse so far after today’s much-milder popular speculative mania, but the entire drawdown might not happen in a single swing. Gold could fall 20%+ entering a bear, bounce back 10%+ formally ending it, then fall another 20%+ to a deeper low than the initial bear one. Today’s drawdown is far too young to start gaming more-complex multi-stage secular-bear scenarios, but another one is possible.

While drawdowns following monster gold bulls are totally fueled by necessary rebalancings of both extreme technicals and sentiment, traders use fundamental arguments to deny they are happening. This is also true into popular-speculative-mania toppings like last week. The great dangers of exceedingly-stretched technicals and wildly-excessive greedy herd sentiment are ignored as prices soar, based on fundamentals.

So whenever I warn about major toppings before bulls peak, like on gold’s China takeover just a couple weeks ago, my inbox fills with fundamental reasons why this time it’s different. Incidentally those are the most-dangerous words in market history, leading to catastrophic losses and ruin for countless traders who chased manias to buy in super-high. Bullish traders drinking the mania Kool-Aid cited three key arguments.

Just before gold peaked, they claimed it would keep powering higher because of ongoing strong demand from world central banks, China, and India. Overnight into last Thursday the 29th when gold crested, the World Gold Council released its latest quarterly Gold Demand Trends report. These fantastic reads have long offered the best-available data on global gold supply and demand, revealing underlying fundamentals.

Gold’s record cyclical bull encompassed late 2023 and all of 2024 and 2025. Gold’s calendar-year gains over these last three years accelerated dramatically, running 13.1%, 27.2% and 64.3%! If fundamentals rather than speculative fervor were gold’s primary driver, demand should’ve grown dramatically over this span right? Yet that’s certainly not what the WGC’s annual totals reveal, with 2025’s just reported last Thursday.

Global central-bank gold demand in 2023, 2024, and 2025 clocked in at 1,050.8 metric tons, 1,092.4t, and 863.3t. Chinese consumer gold demand, which includes both investment and jewelry buying, ran 959.2t, 857.0t, and 830.3t in these same years. Indian consumer demand looked similar at 761.0t, 802.8t, and 710.9t. Notice the trend here? In all three fundamental cases 2025 proved the weakest of these past three years!

Supply-and-demand fundamentals in a giant worldwide slow-moving market like gold simply can’t shift anywhere near fast enough to justify prices nearly tripling in just over a couple years! They can’t explain gold skyrocketing 43%+ above its 200dma to a 46-year high in overboughtness. That’s all animal spirits, extreme herd greed manifesting in frenzied fear-of-missing-out buying. Popular speculative manias are all sentiment.

The subsequent big-and-fast drawdowns have to fall deep enough and run long enough to eradicate all of that. They aren’t driven by fundamentals any more than the soarings into extreme toppings are! So be wary of fundamentals being used to argue that gold’s selloff has already ended or soon will, so you should rush to buy the dips. Reckonings after extreme bulls take lots of selling and plenty of time to finish their work.

Successful trading demands always staying informed on markets, to understand opportunities as they arise. We can help! For decades we’ve published popular weekly and monthly newsletters focused on contrarian speculation and investment. They draw on my vast experience, knowledge, wisdom, and ongoing research to explain what’s going on in the markets, why, and how to trade them with specific stocks.

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The bottom line is gold is in for a serious drawdown after one of its most-extreme cyclical bulls ever. It was dollar gold’s largest bull on record by far, skyrocketing to gold’s most-overbought levels since just after January 1980’s notorious bubble. That reckoning is already underway, kicking off with gold’s third-worst daily plummeting ever. But history argues these rebalancing selloffs require more depth and time.

Excluding this latest monster record bull, the ten-biggest and ten-most-overbought cyclical-bull toppings since 1971 averaged subsequent big-and-fast drawdowns around 21% in just over a couple months. And 25% wouldn’t be surprising at all given gold’s first popular speculative mania since January 1980. That’s troubling enough for gold, but silver will likely double its losses while major gold stocks double to triple them.

Adam Hamilton, CPA, is a principal of Zeal LLC, which he co-founded in early 2000 as a pro-free market, pro-capitalism, and pro-laissez faire contrarian investing and speculating Information Age financial-services company. Hamilton is a lifelong contrarian student of the markets who lives for studying and trading them.

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What You Aren’t Being Told About The World You Live In

How The “Conspiracy Theory” Label Was Conceived To Derail The Truth Movement

How Covert American Agents Infiltrate the Internet to Manipulate, Deceive and Destroy Reputations

February 9, 2026
Russia Declares Epstein Case Is Pure Satanism Beyond Human Comprehension
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A soul-chilling new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first notes Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gravely declared: “The Epstein case has revealed the real face of the Western elites...This topic has exposed the real face of what is called the collective West and the deep state, or rather, an alliance that controls the entire West and is seeking to rule the whole world...It is unnecessary to explain to any normal person that this is pure Satanism and is beyond human comprehension”, says this grave declaration was joined by the New York Times, fearfully observing: “Jeffrey Epstein, as has become clear again with the latest Department of Justice file dump, will go down in history as perhaps this century’s most horrifically accomplished social climber...He knew pretty much everybody, name-dropping, favour-trading, sex-trafficking and possibly blackmailing his way all the way up, up, up...Only Vladimir Putin was beyond his Mephistophelian charms”.

In the millions of emails, files, documents and videos released by the United States Department of Justice on its searchable database site Epstein Library, this report notes, it sees Epstein proclaiming “We are going to have fun” after top Bill Gates science advisor Dr. Boris Nikolic arranged for him to meet with pandemic and infectious disease experts—and Epstein revealed the news to Dr. Nikolic in an email sent on 6 Dec 2010: “Britain's Prince Andrew regaled a bevy of media heavyweights at billionaire Jeffrey Epstein's Upper East Side townhouse the other night when he told of the royal family's joy over Prince William's upcoming wedding to Kate Middleton -- and the glamorous guests asked for invitations...Andrew was quizzed by guests including Katie Couric, George Stephanopoulos, Charlie Rose, Woody Allen and Chelsea Handler at the dinner thrown by Epstein, who is an old friends with Prince Andrew.

Last week, this report continues, King Charles and Prince William evicted Prince Andrew from his home because of ties with Epstein-- British Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy then turned against Prime Minister Keir Starmer over his decision to appoint Epstein’s friend, Lord Peter Mandelson, as American ambassador—Labour Party lawmakers quickly demanded Prime Minister Starmer resign—it was revealed today: “Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, has resigned over the fallout from newly published files related to the late Jeffrey Epstein”—and Bloomberg News just reported: “British Prime Minister Keir Starmer may be forced to resign within a week”.

In Slovakia today, this report details, Miroslav Lajčák, a former president of the United Nations General Assembly and an adviser to Prime Minister Robert Fico, resigned after text messages released by the Department of Justice show he and Epstein discussing women—a resignation joined with the news: “Norway’s Foreign Ministry says diplomat Mona Juul will step down from her post following a “serious lapse in judgment” connected to her past contacts with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein”—and Politico most factually observed: “Across the Atlantic, heads are rolling over the Jeffrey Epstein revelations...But as Europe’s political class moves to clean up its mess and address its shame concerning ties with the convicted sex offender, it’s inadvertently highlighting something else — the comparative lack of accountability in the United States...No prominent politicians have taken a fall...Consequences have been limited...Wagons have been circled around the most prominent political figures whose names have surfaced in the legal document dumps”.

Among those protecting prominent American political figures, this report notes, is Epstein’s imprisoned child sex slave accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell, whose under oath testimony today was joined with the news: “Ghislaine Maxwell intends to plead the Fifth Amendment to avoid self-incrimination during her Monday deposition in front of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee”, and it was also revealed: “Jeffrey Epstein’s longtime companion, Ghislaine Maxwell, played a substantial role in supporting the creation of the Clinton Global Initiative, one of President Bill Clinton’s signature post-White House endeavors, new documents released by the Justice Department show”.

When President Donald Trump was first rising to political power in 2016, this report continues, he was aided by the mysterious and shadowy organization QAnon, that alerted the American peoples about how demonic elites used the word pizza as a substitute for the children they were raping, which became known by leftists as the “Pizzagate Conspiracy Theory”—with the Epstein files containing tens-of-thousands of emails showing demonic elites all talking about pizza, it caused top President Trump media advisor Tucker Carlson to release his beyond horrifying video “Tucker Responds to the Epstein Files, Pizzagate & the Demonic Global Crime Network” exposing the truth—and is a truth so horrifying, it caused famed leftist commentator Bill Maher to proclaim: “I can’t believe I’m saying this, but where does QAnon go for an Apology?... They believed in really ridiculous things, like democrats eating babies, but they were correct that the elites are running this pedophile ring, and I made jokes about them...But now all that’s come out, it’s a little more than just smoke”.

After the disastrous American withdrawal from Afghanistan, this report concludes, it was infamously revealed: “Biden is betting Americans will forget about Afghanistan...People in and around the White House are relying on Americans’ notoriously short-term memory”—and is a notoriously short-term memory that today sees the American peoples forgetting about the Department of Justice posting its 9 August 2019 official statement announcing that Epstein had been found dead in his prison cell, which is extremely noteworthy because Epstein was actually found suicided in his prison cell the following day on 10 August 2019.

[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

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February 9, 2026, EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked to its source at WhatDoesItMean.com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ have been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exemplified in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]

[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

Europe Recoils From Trump's Golden Age And Warns “The World Has Changed Permanently”

Trump Arises As Iron Chancellor Of The Entire World

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By Adam Sharp

February 9, 2026


Germany Wants Its Gold Back (Again)

Germany has the second-largest gold reserves in the world at 3,350 tons.

The U.S. is first with 8,133 tons.

China says they hold 2,300 tons, but it’s widely known they’ve been secretly buying for decades. The country’s true holdings may even surpass America’s.

But let’s get back to Germany. The country holds 37% of its hoard in Manhattan at the New York Federal Reserve vault. That gold is valued at about $170 billion today.

Why would Germany store so much gold in NYC? Because back in the 1970s, there was fear that the USSR would send 20,000 tanks through the Fulda gap into West Germany.

So the gold was stored in the U.S. for safekeeping.
But ever since, Germans have occasionally demanded their bullion back. With limited success.

In 2012, German news site Der Spiegel reported on Germany’s central bank’s attempts to at least view their gold holdings.

Finally, in 2007, “following numerous enquiries,” Bundesbank staff members were allowed to see the facility, but they reportedly only made it to the anteroom of the German reserves.

In fact, auditors from the Bundesbank made a second visit in May 2011. This time one of the nine compartments was also opened, in which the German gold bars are densely stacked. A few were pulled out and weighed. But this part of the report has been blacked out — out of consideration for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

“I would like more transparency on the issue,” says Bundesbank board member Thiele. The Americans are very sensitive, though, when it comes to security procedures in their gold storage facilities. In their second major depository, the legendary Fort Knox, practically no one in recent decades has been allowed to view the gold reserves.

So in 2007, they weren’t allowed to see any gold at all. And after years of back and forth, they were only allowed to see one of nine compartments.
And parts of the report were blacked out? It doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

The 2012 Spiegel report goes on to say:
Such intense secrecy fuels legends. Many conspiracy theorists have suspected for decades that the German gold has long since disappeared. Others believe that it has been lent out. They contend that there are only promissory notes of little worth stored in the bank’s vaults.

Following this controversy, Germany did manage to bring a portion of its gold back home. They withdrew 300 tons from the U.S. by 2016.
But the NY Federal Reserve still holds 37% of Germany’s bullion today. And now, some are calling for it all to come home.

Germany’s Latest Attempt
Over recent months, German voices have once again been calling to bring the gold home. From The Guardian:
Emanuel Mönch, a leading economist and former head of research at Germany’s federal bank, the Bundesbank, called for the gold to be brought home, saying it was too “risky” for it to be kept in the US under the current administration.

“Given the current geopolitical situation, it seems risky to store so much gold in the US,” he told the financial newspaper Handelsblatt. “In the interest of greater strategic independence from the US, the Bundesbank would therefore be well advised to consider repatriating the gold.”

Naturally, some are attempting to frame this as a Trump issue. It’s not. This has been going on for many decades.
Others are calling for regular audits:
Markus Ferber, a member of the European Parliament for the CDU, told Bild that he also insists on German officials being allowed to personally inspect the country’s U.S.-based bullion.

“I demand regular checks of Germany’s gold reserves,” he said. “Official representatives of the Bundesbank must personally count the bars and document their results.”

However, Germany’s central bank chief, Joachim Nagel, isn’t budging (yet), stating “We have a trustworthy and reliable partner in the Fed in New York for the storage of our gold holdings.”

The fact that many are calling for a return of the gold (or at least an audit) again is noteworthy.
Last time the Germans demanded to see their gold, they succeeded in bringing back a portion from New York vaults.

Conspiracy Theories
Remember last year, when President Trump and Elon Musk were going to audit America’s gold reserves?
Whatever happened to that? I suppose more pressing issues took precedent.

For decades, a dedicated group of gold bugs have suspected that governments around the world have secretly sold or leased their bullion out. That government vaults are essentially filled with paper IOUs.

Is it possible some nefarious groups have secretly sold off global gold reserves? Sure.
The intense secrecy and lack of audits fuels these suspicions. Refusing to let a sovereign nation see its own gold reserves seems a bit… odd.
But the evidence is circumstantial. So for now, there are far more questions than answers.

Growing Mistrust
With deteriorating relations between the U.S. and Europe, it’s possible these issues will come to a head.
President Trump’s desire to seize parts of Greenland has lit a fire under some Germans.

Will this be the moment that Germany’s political leadership and central bank demand all its gold back? Probably not. But if the relationship between key NATO allies continues to erode, anything is possible.

What would happen if it were discovered that someone had sold off national gold? Chaos.
It would be one of the biggest stories of the century. A heist of unimaginable scale.

Our own Jim Rickards has written about this topic extensively, and says that America’s gold, at least, is still there. Which is reassuring.
But it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that at some point over the past 50 years, a portion of foreign gold reserves could have disappeared.

The temptation to at least “lease” some of that gold, and put the capital to use, would be substantial.

Then again, you’d think that much gold hitting the market would make a splash big enough to be visible from space. So who knows?
We’ll keep an eye on this story for further developments.

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Why Silver is Heading for $1,000

Silver NEWS article by Karel Mercx

The Silver Academy

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From today’s levels, a 10x move in silver sounds extreme. History says it is normal when two key ratios flip from one extreme to the other at the same time: the Dow priced in gold, and the gold-silver ratio. Even with conservative targets, the math takes silver above $1,000.
Dow/Gold ratio = Dow Jones Index level ÷ gold price
Gold-silver ratio = gold price ÷ silver price.

The Dow/Gold Indicator
The Dow priced in gold compresses a century of market psychology into one line. Extreme optimism peaked in 1929, 1966, and 1999. Extreme pessimism followed, with troughs in 1933 and 1980. The market now sits at another level that historically marks the start of the next downswing in this ratio.

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Dow/Gold ratio chart (Dow Jones in gold ounces), 1900–2026: stock market vs gold valuation cycles, major peaks (1929, 1966, 1999) and bottoms (1933, 1980).

I don’t think the real bottom in the Dow/Gold ratio was set in 2011. After 2011, global debt exploded. In past cycles, the Dow/Gold trough coincided with debt becoming manageable again. In the 1930s, debt burdens fell through deflation. In the 1970s, they fell because inflation destroyed the real value of debt.
So, where does the Dow/Gold ratio go this time? I expect it to move closer to the 1 level of 1980 than the 2 level of 1933. In the 1930s, the world operated under a gold standard. After 1971, gold was free to reprice. Two forces are stronger than one.

I still use 2.5 as my target because I want the middle of the move, not the perfect bottom. Timing tops and bottoms increases risk. Focusing on the middle reduces it.

Today, the Dow/Gold ratio is 9.82. A decline to 2.5 means the ratio falls by a factor of 9.82 / 2.5 = 3.93. If the Dow stays flat, gold must rise by the same factor.
That implies a gold price of $19,800 ($5,042*3.92), assuming the Dow holds around 49,501. I also assume the Dow is not cut in half by the end of a precious-metals bull market. The 1970s support this: the equity market’s low came earlier, in 1973, while precious metals peaked later.

The $1,000 Silver Roadmap
The second indicator is the gold-silver ratio. Silver is a much smaller market than gold, which is why it moves harder in both directions. In 1980, the gold-silver ratio bottomed at 14. I use 19 to stay conservative and focus on the middle of the move.

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Gold-silver ratio chart (gold vs silver price ratio), 1971–2026: historical extremes, 1980 low near 14, and recent elevated levels impacting silver price outlook.
With gold at $19,800 and a gold-silver ratio of 19, silver prices at $1,042 because $19,800 / 19 = $1,042.

Today’s starting point is clear: gold at $5,042, silver at $77.42, and a gold-silver ratio of 65.13. A move to 19 is not “normalization.” It is a swing from one extreme to the other, and that is exactly how silver reaches four digits.

https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...J6RWBePdyw--~D


Timing: 2030–2033
The big question is when silver breaks above $1,000. This cycle already resembles the 1970s: today’s Dow/Gold ratio matches the zone seen in 1973–1976, while the peak arrived in 1980. That pattern implies 4 to 7 years, which puts the timeline in 2030–2033.
Two ratios, one conclusion: silver’s upside is the mathematical consequence of a full-cycle reversal.

Article originally appeared here:
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...f8ttfkI93g--~D
Karel Mercx
@KarelMercx
https://t.co/onGkBk6ELP
3:00 PM · Feb 15, 2026 · 68.1K Views
39 Replies · 119 Reposts · 791 Likes
About the author

Karel Mercx is a Dutch multi-asset investment specialist and portfolio manager based in Amsterdam, active in markets since 2000. He manages diversified portfolios, writes about global macro and commodities, and regularly shares investment insights on X and LinkedIn

Gold Extremes’ Drawdowns
Adam Hamilton
CPA, Principal & Co-Founder of Zeal LLC
February 6, 2026

Gold just soared to some of its most-overbought levels on record, climaxing its largest cyclical bull ever. That was followed by one of gold’s worst down days in history, formally slaying that monster bull. That popular-speculative-mania topping means a serious reckoning is underway. Gold’s drawdowns after past extremes offer insights into the likely magnitude of the carnage traders need to gird themselves to expect.

Since 2000, I’ve written 1,212 of these weekly web essays. That discipline has led to a well-established workflow to release them on time. Wednesday mornings I decide on relevant topics, then that day I do all the necessary research including building spreadsheets and charts. The essays are written and proofed on Thursdays, finalized by that day’s close. Then Friday mornings I do one final quick proofread before publishing

Last Thursday the 29th, it was a different world when I penned an essay warning about gold’s popular speculative mania. Gold closed at an all-time record high of $5,394 that day, its eighth in as many trading days. In that short span alone, gold had soared an astounding 17.6%! That annualized to a ludicrously-unsustainable 550% ascent pace! So I took a hardline contrarian stance in my conclusion that day...

“The bottom line is gold has soared into a dangerous popular speculative mania. Gold’s recent ascent pace is absurd and wildly-unsustainable, driving its most-extreme overboughtness since January 1980’s notorious bubble. That sure didn’t end well for gold, nor did the handful of bull toppings where it was more overbought way back in the 1970s. Extreme technicals and herd sentiment portend imminent reckonings.”

“These have proven big-and-fast selloffs on the order of 20% to 30%, which are necessary to rebalance away mania extremes. While brutal-enough for gold, silver and gold stocks really amplify its big losses catastrophically cratering. Popular speculative manias never last long, their frenzied fear-of-missing-out chasing buying soon burning itself out. The subsequent big symmetrical selloffs are violent and unforgiving.”

Fortuitously from a timing standpoint, heavy Chinese selling erupted overnight into Friday the 30th. That essay was released that morning, and by the time the dust settled in US trading gold had plummeted an eye-popping 10.3% that day alone! That proved its third-worst daily loss since 1971 in US-dollar terms, which effectively means ever. For all intents and purposes, dollar-gold history was born in August 1971.

That’s when Richard Nixon catastrophically severed the US dollar from its essential gold standard. That unleashed the near-total dollar devaluation and relentless price inflation ever since. Before January 1934, the dollar gold price was hard-pegged at $20.67 per ounce. Franklin Roosevelt then devalued the dollar to $35.00 per ounce, where it mostly remained until August 1971. Only since then are gold prices market-driven.

Had gold kept surging rather than collapsing last Friday, interest in my contrarian essay would’ve been low. But there’s nothing like a top-0.02% down day to galvanize traders to reconsider their to-the-moon outlooks. Since 1971, that 10.3% plummeting was only behind a 13.2% crash in January 1980 and another 12.1% one in February 1983! The main question I heard from readers since is “how bad could this get?”

The most-rational and conservative way to illuminate that is analyzing drawdowns after gold’s past extreme toppings. In the vast 55.1-year span since January 1971, gold has weathered every kind of market environment imaginable. Gold’s trends can be broken down empirically by looking at 10%+ closing moves in one direction before 10%+ countertrend reversals end them. There have been lots of those!

In this effective entire dollar-gold history, it has enjoyed 32 cyclical bulls with 20%+ gains. There were also another 10 smaller 10%+ uplegs that fell short of achieving bull status. Those were punctuated by 17 cyclical bears with 20%+ losses, and an additional 24 10%+ corrections. Bulls or uplegs are always inevitably followed by bears or corrections, markets are forever-cyclical. The latter are often proportional.

Unbelievably in the 27.8 months between early October 2023 to late January 2026, this latest gold bull powered a jaw-dropping 196.4% higher! Gold nearly tripled in that span without a single 10%+ correction, which is wildly-unprecedented. That makes gold’s epic monster cyclical bull that just topped the biggest-ever by far in US-dollar terms! As this table of gold’s top-25 bulls since 1971 shows, nothing else is even close.


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Gold’s prior biggest cyclical bull was a 127.9% moonshot into January 1980, which continuously held that record for a whopping 45.8 years until mid-October 2025! As I explained last week before gold plunged, that was an infamous bubble topping climaxing a dangerous popular speculative mania. Soberingly gold wouldn’t regain that January-1980 peak of $850 even in nominal terms until 28.0 years later in January 2008!

Gold’s reckoning out of that last mania climax was brutal, plummeting a skull-crushing 43.4% in just 1.9 months! Holy freaking cow that would be painful. But thankfully that terminal surge into January 1980 was far more extreme than recent months’. Gold’s ascent pace during that known-bubble cyclical bull was 48.6% per month, the most extreme ever! Today’s bull cresting last Thursday averaged just 7.1% monthly.

That’s considerably milder than gold’s third-to-fifth-largest cyclical bulls averaging 16.9%, but still much sharper than its sixth-to-ninth-biggest ones averaging 4.3%. But all those and indeed all 24 previous bulls in this table were followed by big-and-fast drawdowns. Gold’s next-five-biggest cyclical bulls after today’s averaged massive subsequent selloffs of 26.3% in just 2.5 months! A similar drawdown today would be rough.

From last Thursday’s peak, a 25% cyclical bear today would slam gold way back down near $4,045. That would seriously hurt gold investors, but they could weather it. The real problem is what such a big gold reckoning would do to the rest of the precious-metals complex. Silver tends to about double material gold moves, while the major gold stocks of the leading GDX sector ETF tend to amplify their metal by 2x to 3x!

While gold was in a popular speculative mania last week, that was still way less extreme than January 1980’s notorious bubble. So to be more conservative and dilute its drawdown’s impact on averages, consider the reckonings after gold’s next-ten-biggest cyclical bulls after today’s. Those still averaged hefty 20.8% losses over just 2.1 months! A similar 20% one today would hammer gold near $4,315 by late March!

Such carnage would imply silver collapsing 40%ish and GDX between 40% to 60%! Such horrendous losses would be unrecoverable for older investors nearing retirement, and an existential threat for any speculators employing any leverage at all. One hallmark of popular speculative manias is surging use of leverage, which was sure evident in gold’s crazy fear-of-missing-out momentum-chasing buying in January.

As of Wednesday’s data cutoff for this essay, gold had already plummeted 13.3% in just two trading days as of this Monday! So a 20%-to-25% total drawdown sure doesn’t sound like a stretch. Cyclical bulls are followed by often-proportional cyclical bears because bull toppings’ extreme technicals and sentiment need to be rebalanced. Excessively-stretched prices need to normalize, and outsized herd greed bled off.

This latest gold bull was not only the largest ever by far, but also peaked at some of dollar gold’s most-overbought levels ever. While various overbought-oversold indicators exist, my favorite is a simple one I developed for trading gold stocks over two decades ago. It is simply calculated by dividing gold’s close by its underlying 200-day moving average, which yields a multiple that I called Relative Gold or rGold.

That renders gold off its baseline 200dma in constant-percentage terms. Charting these multiples over time reveals trading ranges, with often-well-defined extreme-overbought and extreme-oversold zones. 200dmas are ideal baselines to measure gold’s stretchedness, because they move slowly yet still evolve with changing prevailing gold prices. Last week’s essay included an updated rGold chart and analysis.

Last Wednesday the 28th, gold had soared an unbelievable 43.4% above its 200dma on close! As I warned last Thursday before gold’s selling hit, that 1.434x rGold read was a wild 45.9-year secular high in overboughtness! Gold hadn’t stretched way up to such extremes since all the way back in early March 1980! That was a clear confirmation gold had skyrocketed into the first popular speculative mania since then.

Out of all 13,892 trading days since January 1971, that ranked as gold’s 136th-most-overbought close or top 0.98%. But all the more-overbought days were clustered in only four previous episodes, prior mighty-cyclical-bull toppings. This table sorts all gold’s biggest cyclical bulls since 1971 by their rGold multiples the days gold crested. Today’s gold bull is listed at 1.432x, last Thursday’s level as gold edged up 0.1% to peak.


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The only times dollar gold has ever been more overbought than last week were in monster-cyclical-gold-bull peaks into January 1980, June 1973, October 1979, and April 1974. The subsequent big-and-fast drawdowns weren’t pretty, averaging a savage 27.4% in just 2.9 months as I warned last week! Adding in the next-most-overbought bull after today’s doesn’t help much, as the other top five averaged 26.3% in 2.5 months.

Again expanding that to gold’s ten-most-overbought bull toppings excluding today’s to dilute the impact of January 1980’s bubble bursting, gold’s subsequent average drawdown was 20.7% over just 2.1 months. That’s remarkably close to that earlier 20.8% over 2.1 months which was the average vicious bear after the next-ten-largest cyclical gold bulls. That’s about how much and how fast gold is likely to plunge here.

A 21%ish drawdown in a couple months or so would hammer gold back down near $4,261 by late March. Again that would almost certainly translate into disastrous 42% losses for silver and 42% to 63% for the major gold miners’ stocks! I sure hope that doesn’t come to pass, but that’s what gold’s own half-century-plus history implies is probable. And this latest gold bull’s extremeness argues for even-bigger selloffs.

Again this was gold’s largest-ever cyclical bull by far, nearly tripling in just over a couple years! And that catapulted it to climaxing at its most-overbought levels in almost a half-century, soon after gold’s last popular-speculative-mania bubble burst! Often-proportional bears following huge bulls are necessary and healthy to rebalance extreme technicals and sentiment. That process takes a couple months, not a couple days.

Considering all this, I’d be shocked if gold doesn’t at least retreat 25% before this drawdown fully runs its course. Likely silver would double that, and major gold stocks would double to triple it. Gold would have to fall all the way back near $4,045 to hit a 25% drawdown. How far past monster super-overbought gold bulls fell relative to their 200dmas buttresses that target range, solidifying it relative to historical precedent.

Gold cyclical bears tend to maul it back down near or under its 200-day moving average. Midweek that is still way down near $3,797, but is rising at a rapid clip thanks to January’s frenzied gold chasing. It surged $178 in this past month, which would boost gold’s 200dma near $3,974 in a couple months if this steep 200dma ascent slope persists. That would make for a nice 200dma convergence around a 25% drawdown.

Gold’s ten-biggest cyclical bears since 1971 averaged brutal 37.2% drawdowns bottoming at just 0.889x gold’s 200dma! That sure sounds scary. But looking at the ten specific drawdowns following gold’s ten-most-overbought bull toppings excluding today’s clocked in at much-higher rGold bottomings near 1.059x. The caveat is these are cyclical bulls and bears measured by 10%+ closing swings, not broader secular ones!

As an example, gold’s most-extreme bull ever into January 1980 skyrocketed 127.9%. Its subsequent drawdown was again horrific at 43.4% over just 1.9 months. From there gold soared 42.8% in another cyclical bull, followed by a 12.0% correction. Then gold climbed another 17.5% before plunging a soul-crushing 58.3%. Through this entire secular-bear span from January 1980 to June 1982, gold plummeted 65.1%!

Gold doesn’t need to collapse so far after today’s much-milder popular speculative mania, but the entire drawdown might not happen in a single swing. Gold could fall 20%+ entering a bear, bounce back 10%+ formally ending it, then fall another 20%+ to a deeper low than the initial bear one. Today’s drawdown is far too young to start gaming more-complex multi-stage secular-bear scenarios, but another one is possible.

While drawdowns following monster gold bulls are totally fueled by necessary rebalancings of both extreme technicals and sentiment, traders use fundamental arguments to deny they are happening. This is also true into popular-speculative-mania toppings like last week. The great dangers of exceedingly-stretched technicals and wildly-excessive greedy herd sentiment are ignored as prices soar, based on fundamentals.

So whenever I warn about major toppings before bulls peak, like on gold’s China takeover just a couple weeks ago, my inbox fills with fundamental reasons why this time it’s different. Incidentally those are the most-dangerous words in market history, leading to catastrophic losses and ruin for countless traders who chased manias to buy in super-high. Bullish traders drinking the mania Kool-Aid cited three key arguments.

Just before gold peaked, they claimed it would keep powering higher because of ongoing strong demand from world central banks, China, and India. Overnight into last Thursday the 29th when gold crested, the World Gold Council released its latest quarterly Gold Demand Trends report. These fantastic reads have long offered the best-available data on global gold supply and demand, revealing underlying fundamentals.

Gold’s record cyclical bull encompassed late 2023 and all of 2024 and 2025. Gold’s calendar-year gains over these last three years accelerated dramatically, running 13.1%, 27.2% and 64.3%! If fundamentals rather than speculative fervor were gold’s primary driver, demand should’ve grown dramatically over this span right? Yet that’s certainly not what the WGC’s annual totals reveal, with 2025’s just reported last Thursday.

Global central-bank gold demand in 2023, 2024, and 2025 clocked in at 1,050.8 metric tons, 1,092.4t, and 863.3t. Chinese consumer gold demand, which includes both investment and jewelry buying, ran 959.2t, 857.0t, and 830.3t in these same years. Indian consumer demand looked similar at 761.0t, 802.8t, and 710.9t.

Notice the trend here? In all three fundamental cases 2025 proved the weakest of these past three years!
Supply-and-demand fundamentals in a giant worldwide slow-moving market like gold simply can’t shift anywhere near fast enough to justify prices nearly tripling in just over a couple years! They can’t explain gold skyrocketing 43%+ above its 200dma to a 46-year high in overboughtness. That’s all animal spirits, extreme herd greed manifesting in frenzied fear-of-missing-out buying. Popular speculative manias are all sentiment.

The subsequent big-and-fast drawdowns have to fall deep enough and run long enough to eradicate all of that. They aren’t driven by fundamentals any more than the soarings into extreme toppings are! So be wary of fundamentals being used to argue that gold’s selloff has already ended or soon will, so you should rush to buy the dips. Reckonings after extreme bulls take lots of selling and plenty of time to finish their work.

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The bottom line is gold is in for a serious drawdown after one of its most-extreme cyclical bulls ever. It was dollar gold’s largest bull on record by far, skyrocketing to gold’s most-overbought levels since just after January 1980’s notorious bubble. That reckoning is already underway, kicking off with gold’s third-worst daily plummeting ever. But history argues these rebalancing selloffs require more depth and time.

Excluding this latest monster record bull, the ten-biggest and ten-most-overbought cyclical-bull toppings since 1971 averaged subsequent big-and-fast drawdowns around 21% in just over a couple months. And 25% wouldn’t be surprising at all given gold’s first popular speculative mania since January 1980. That’s troubling enough for gold, but silver will likely double its losses while major gold stocks double to triple them.

Adam Hamilton, CPA, is a principal of Zeal LLC, which he co-founded in early 2000 as a pro-free market, pro-capitalism, and pro-laissez faire contrarian investing and speculating Information Age financial-services company. Hamilton is a lifelong contrarian student of the markets who lives for studying and trading them.

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24 February 2026
Trump Stares Down Deadly Blue Wave Coming To Drown Him

Hello Folks,
President Donald Trump will deliver his State of the Union address to the American people tonight, about which Fox News reported: “President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address will put the economy front and center, pairing working-family guests with a data-driven case on affordability — while also making economic policy announcements”, and the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll revealed: “As President Trump is set to deliver his first official State of the Union address of his second term, most Americans say the country is worse off than a year ago and that the state of the union is not strong”.

The Americans believing the country is worse off than a year ago and that the state of the union is not strong would be wise to read the White House site “365 WINS IN 365 DAYS: President Trump’s Return Marks New Era of Success, Prosperity” that documents with facts how deluded their thinking really is, but is wisdom surely lacking as it was just observed: “The United States spent $30 billion to ditch textbooks for laptops and tablets: The result is the first generation less cognitively capable than their parents”.

Examples of the first generation less cognitively capable than their parents include the young American woman having a mental breakdown over her rat infested apartment in socialist Democrat Party controlled New York City, and the young American woman that fled to socialist Canada from socialist Democrat Party controlled Los Angeles, who posted the warning: “The situation in Canada is absolutely dire for Americans who don’t know...The housing crisis here is worse than in the United States...I lived in LA for six years, and I have not faced rent as bad as it is here”.

Placed in the category of “there must be something in the water”, at least for fake news CNN, was CNN chief international correspondent Clarissa Ward breaking the socialist narrative to openly admit Ukrainians are broken after four years of war, then CNN chief political commentator Fareed Zakaria broke the socialist narrative to truthfully admit: “Blue cities are out of control, promising more, spending more, delivering less, and pushing off the fiscal problems to some future day...What is the theory of good government here?...If the answer is keep adding programs, the city will keep producing unaffordability, because unaffordability is what happens when government becomes a machine that grows faster than the society it governs”.


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What President Trump is staring down tonight during his State of the Union address is a deadly Blue Wave election from socialist Democrats coming to drown him, and Professor Dan Cassino of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University assessed: “It’s nine months before the midterm elections that will determine who controls the House of Representatives and the fate of any legislation President Donald Trump might want to pass in the second half of his term, but it’s the decisions of candidates, not voters, that are likely to shape the outcome...Long before the first ballot is cast, the expectation of a wave election for Democrats is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy”.

One of the foremost experts on American wave elections is political commentator Mark Halperin, who was expelled from the leftist mainstream media community after he said about a press conference President Obama gave in 2011: “I thought he was kind of a dick”, and he just revealed details about a high-level Republican Party meeting held last week:
Tuesday night at the Capitol Hill Club, just steps from the House office buildings and a world away from cable news hysteria, the senior Trump political command gathered its core team to talk midterms.

It was not a rally. It was not a pep talk. It was a working session — about two hours, a chicken-and-steak buffet, roughly 75 to 100 people in the room, many of them Cabinet secretaries and their top aides, almost all political veterans.

The mood, according to one attendee, was not panicked. Not shaken. But not sanguine, either. Just focused. The kind of focus that comes from knowing that, at the moment, the patterns of history are not on your side.

Midterms are almost always brutal for a president’s party. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost House seats in all but a handful of elections. The average loss is measured not in single digits but in dozens. The modern political era is replete with examples: 1994 for Bill Clinton, 2010 for Barack Obama, 2018 for Donald Trump himself. The gravitational pull of backlash is real.

Which is why Tuesday night’s meeting mattered.
Susie Wiles, the president’s chief political architect and one of the most disciplined operators in either party, hosted and spoke briefly. Then pollster and strategist Tony Fabrizio took over, presenting roughly 25 slides of data — demographics, issue salience, message testing and a summary of what breaks through and what falls flat.

The headline: The economy will be THE issue at the polls this November.
Not immigration. Not foreign policy. Not Epstein or the border. Not investigations or indictments or Jan. 6 retrospectives. The economy.
Fabrizio’s data showed that certain messages resonated with key voters: banning stock trading for members of Congress; promoting greater transparency in health insurance pricing and claims reimbursement; lowering prescription drug costs; and protecting the Trump tax cuts. Housing affordability, especially for younger voters, looms large — a kitchen-table issue with generational bite, though one the administration has yet to solve, either politically or through policy.

Notably, taking credit for closing the border does not resonate nearly as much as Republicans might assume. It’s not that voters oppose border enforcement; many simply see it as baseline governance rather than a life-changing economic intervention.

The persuadable universe is also narrower than partisans often imagine: men, moderates, true independents and Hispanic voters. These are the movable pieces on the board.

When addressing the group, Fabrizio was not pessimistic, but nor was he sentimental. He urged the team to prioritize specialized podcasts and social media over national news interviews. Paid media, he argued, should be highly targeted — digital, demographic and data-driven — rather than sweeping broadcast or even cable buys. Facebook remains king for voter reach, followed by Instagram and TikTok.

The information ecosystem is fragmented and specific; campaigns that pretend it is still 2004, with its homey, conventional mainstream vibe, are wasting money.

The battlefield, at least for now, is defined. There are 36 targeted House races and seven key Senate races that will determine the balance of power.
The Senate math, as presented, is favorable to Republicans unless something dramatic shifts. One striking assertion: the only way Republicans lose their Senate majority is if Democrats take 50 House seats — a wave scenario of historic proportions, made difficult because redistricting has placed the vast majority of House seats safely in the hands of one party or the other, barring a massive tsunami.

After Fabrizio came James Blair, the White House’s political czar, armed with an ice-cold bucket of galvanizing history. It is rare — exceedingly rare, he told the assembly — for a president’s party not to lose a significant number of seats in a midterm.

Blair pointed to the recent special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District as a tale both cautionary and instructive. The race appeared headed for a loss until a late, aggressive push on messaging and grassroots organizing saved the seat for Republicans and generated lessons about what works — and what does not.
You cannot argue voters into believing wages are up, he said. They have to feel it. Economic statistics do not automatically translate into economic security, nor do they take precedence over personal bank accounts and family budgets. And some good, old-fashioned opposition research painting Democratic candidates as out of step with the electorate can do wonders.

Perhaps the most candid moment of the evening came when Team Trump acknowledged a central reality of this presidency: Donald Trump will do what he wants to do. He will say what he wants to say. He will not be governed by slide decks, message matrices or pleas from Republican candidates and strategists.
The rest of the political apparatus, therefore, must be relentlessly data-driven and on message — two separate but related campaigns running in parallel: one instinctual and improvisational, the other disciplined and empirical

The Trump high command expects Democrats to run largely on a "Stop Trump" message. History suggests that is not a foolish approach. Opposition parties in midterms often succeed by nationalizing the election as a referendum on the president.

But referendums cut both ways. If voters decide the question is not "How do you feel about Donald Trump?" but "How do you feel about your cost of living?" the terrain shifts.

Ironically, for all the caricatures of chaos, arrogance and impulse that surround Trump world, the Capitol Hill Club meeting was a sober, methodical session. Cabinet secretaries such as Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Sean Duffy attended, along with senior aides — not to posture or network, but to listen.

No one in the room thought the midterms would be easy. No one suggested the president’s party was immune to natural political rhythms and swings. But neither did they prepare for inevitable defeat.

The White House officials acted as an alert and cohesive team — one that understands the rules of the game and believes it can bend them.
In Washington, that counts as confidence.

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While preparing to stare down the Blue Wave coming to drown him, President Trump truthfully observed during a ceremony at the White House yesterday: ”I don’t know how long I’ll be around...I got a lot of people gunning for me”.

If President Trump is courageous enough to publically acknowledge his socialist enemies may kill him, my hope is that you will be brave enough to support the Dear Sisters, who fearlessly keep giving you truth and facts, and will fight to make sure no socialist Blue Wave will drown the American leader or its peoples.
Thank you for listening and aiding us in our hour of desperate need by going below and giving what you can, and as always, please feel free to write me at [email protected] with any comments/questions/suggestions, remembering to put ATTN: BRIAN in the subject line, or if requesting to be placed on the Sisters mailing list, put MAILING LIST in the subject line.

All the best folks,
Brian
Webmaster
Paris
Fr.

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