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Josh's Journal (JoshDance)

  • #61
  • Aug 22, 2007 9:17pm Aug 22, 2007 9:17pm
EURJPY

Long @ 156.44 | SL 154.83 | TP 159.65

Rationale:

Yesterday was a BUOB off an IB. Target just below the next PPZ north.
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  • #62
  • Aug 22, 2007 9:19pm Aug 22, 2007 9:19pm
GBPJPY

Long @ 229.65 | SL 227.55 | TP 233.50

Rationale:

Yesterday's bar was a BUB break north of an IB.
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  • #63
  • Aug 23, 2007 8:46am Aug 23, 2007 8:46am
I decided to open a new standard account (as opposed to my previous mini account) to better reflect the state of things when I will begin trading with real money down the road. I simply will not start with $3K. As Dr. Elder says in "Come Into My Trading Room," even though he's including leveraged futures accounts and not just equities, "don't even think about starting with less than $20K--$50 is better, but $100K is the max"... in other words, I want to actually have a good chance. So I opened a demo standard account with $50K. I made a few trades since then, lost some, made some, and now I'm back at breakeven.
  • #64
  • Aug 23, 2007 8:52am Aug 23, 2007 8:52am
All of these were winning trades. I've taken partial profits, and moved all stops to breakeven. There is some debate about this methodology (taking partial profits), and while the predominant mentality among most James16 traders tends to be "let your profits run," most successful traders I've read about all scale out of a trade. Why? Well, in my opinion, psychologically and financially, it hurts too much to go from being up +6% in one day to down 8% the next. I had four open trades, and my profits were up 6%. I closed about half of everything to give me an immediate 3% return, and moved stops up. Sure, I have to be patient and let profits run, but when they get close to my target, I'm taking some money out of the markets. By refusing to take any out before my target is hit, in my book, this constitutes, for me personally, greed, and more detrimentally--the need to 'be right'... If I can't accept the fact that I was mostly right, but maybe not quite there yet, I'm willing to take "okay, you were pretty damn close."

As I mature, I will have more confidence letting profits run, but when 8% of the account is on the table (albeit split accordingly among 4 trades), I'm taking what the market offers me.
  • #65
  • Aug 23, 2007 9:14am Aug 23, 2007 9:14am
Quoting JoshDance
I decided to open a new standard account (as opposed to my previous mini account) to better reflect the state of things when I will begin trading with real money down the road. I simply will not start with $3K. As Dr. Elder says in "Come Into My Trading Room," even though he's including leveraged futures accounts and not just equities, "don't even think about starting with less than $20K--$50 is better, but $100K is the max"... in other words, I want to actually have a good chance. So I opened a demo standard account with $50K. I made a few trades since then, lost some, made some, and now I'm back at breakeven.
Josh a word of warning here, I am not sure if you are thinking about going from a demo account to a 50k live account(that is how I read the above statement), but it is just not a good idea. Way better to ease into it if you ask me. You can always add to your initial deposit as you decide your are comfortable swinging that line.\

Best,
Mike
  • #66
  • Aug 23, 2007 10:07am Aug 23, 2007 10:07am
Mike has a good point. Losing a bunch of cash could be a devastating emotional experience. Wouldn't you rather compound a small risk over time?
  • #67
  • Aug 23, 2007 12:22pm Aug 23, 2007 12:22pm
Quoting JoshDance
Yep, gunset got it...

Also something to be aware of when placing orders and setting stops is that when you buy, you buy the ask price, which is above the bid price you see ticking on your chart. In many cases this is not an insignificant difference.

Imagine selling a currency at 1.3500, and setting the TP level for 1.3415. Realize that if the spread is 5 pips, the bid price that you see ticking on your chart must reach 1.3410 for your TP order to get filled. If it only ticks to 1.3411, and then goes back up, even though you set your TP for 1.3415, your TP order will not get filled, as the ask price only reached 1.3416, not 1.3415. The difference is even more drastic on exotic pairs, and at times like Sunday open. GBP/JPY spread is typically about 14 pips at that time! So setting TP/SL levels with the spread in mind is extremely important.

I've seen people (including myself) get upset about this before without realizing how bid/ask really works. You can set MT4 to display the ask line on the chart if you like, but just be aware that you must always account for the spread! Just a little advice that may help.

Thanks Josh!
  • #68
  • Edited 1:02am Aug 24, 2007 12:36am | Edited 1:02am
AUDUSD

Long @ 0.8404 | SL 0.8375 | TP 0.8462

Rationale:

This is a very small risk trade--only a 30 pip stop and a total risk of 0.3% of my equity. Basically, I just caught this 61.8% fib retracement on a nice steady uptrend, waited for a bounce off the level with a decent 15-min bullish bar with a nose down, and went long. Currently up 15 pips. Target is 2:1 RR, right below a 50% retrace level.

Result: closed at breakeven. BEOB took out small move up.
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  • #69
  • Aug 24, 2007 12:42am Aug 24, 2007 12:42am
mike and tdion,

You bring up very valid points. How much would you recommend starting with? To me, losing $5K would be as emotionally devestating as losing $50K. At any rate, I don't have the money now as I plan to sell an investment property in the future (at least one year from now) to fund it. The plan is to have traded for at least a solid year and feel extremely comfortable trading before I use any real money. I refuse to lose any more real money (lost about a grand earlier this year) until trading feels as natural as waking up in the morning. Heck, maybe I'll wait 5 years to open a real account--whatever it takes! But I'd like to start properly funded. What do you guys think?
  • #70
  • Aug 24, 2007 12:49am Aug 24, 2007 12:49am
Quoting JoshDance
mike and tdion,

You bring up very valid points. How much would you recommend starting with? The problem here is that one amount to one person may represent a much greater risk than to another person. To me, losing $5K would be severely devestating, perhaps as much as $50K. At any rate, I don't have the money now as I plan to sell an investment property in the future to fund it. The plan is to have traded for at least a solid year and feel extremely comfortable trading before I use any real money. I refuse to lose any more real money (lost about a grand earlier this year) until trading feels as natural as waking up in the morning. Heck, maybe I'll wait 5 years to open a real account--whatever it takes! But I'd like to start properly funded. What do you guys think?
I totally understand one mans 100$ is another mans penny. My point is developing a great system, and saving money for 7 years and then going full out is difficult. Demo trading to me is pointless. With the current arrangement on the retail side. Why not take even 20/30/40-100$ and throw it in oanda and at least trade for real money(they allow as low as 1 unit). Your system gives you good results in 3-5 months now add what you can. Maybe it is only another 100$. Your wins will be compounding(sure it isn't much), but if you have a savings account and it takes your 5-7 years to save 50k and you say ok I have been on demo for 7 years profitable time to trade 2% of 50k live. Boy you are in for some hellish emotions(not to mention demo trading isn't realistic all the time during fast markets etc).

That is why I think it is best to start small and add. Instead of starting large and not getting back that last money. Little is all relative. Too one person little is 100$ to another it is $5000. But you can always add money was my point. Being properly capitalized is important, but being mentally capitalized is more. Fiji writes about this somewhere in the PF. You have the complete right mindset here, which is long-term. But then you jump from, I will do this as long as it takes to, Ok I am ready to trade a 50k account. That is too drastic for 'most'(been there lol).

Mike
  • #71
  • Aug 24, 2007 1:06am Aug 24, 2007 1:06am
Thanks for the words mike. I will take this into consideration--fortunately I have at least a year to worry (or rather, not worry lol) about it!
  • #72
  • Aug 27, 2007 8:50pm Aug 27, 2007 8:50pm
GBPUSD

Long @ 2.0088 | SL 2.0045

Rationale:

50% Fib retracement on current minor uptrend. This is not an A trade, in my book, so I'm only risking 1% of my balance. Price has shot down to the 61.8% and right back up since I got in the trade as you can see on the chart, so maybe this is showing a strong rejection and a strong move up will follow. The down trendline as well as the PPZ make me nervous about taking this long, which is why I risked only 1%.
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  • #73
  • Aug 27, 2007 8:55pm Aug 27, 2007 8:55pm
USDJPY

Long @ 115.62 | SL 115.25 | TP 116.35

Rationale:
Price is in a short-TF range right now. Price has hit a minor PPZ where price found support recently, and price dipped below and was rejected. The logical place for price to go is top of the range, which happens to be right below the monthly S1 pivot (the big orange line you see there). Only risking 1% on this trade, as it's not with my usual daily plan.
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  • #74
  • Aug 27, 2007 8:58pm Aug 27, 2007 8:58pm
EURAUD

Long @ 1.6541 | SL 1.6386

Rationale:
Daily PB, close to the 50% retracement from the major swing low to high. (pinbar in the picture looks very small because of such a large range, but it's not insignificant)
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  • #75
  • Sep 9, 2007 11:17pm Sep 9, 2007 11:17pm
Taking a little vacation. Will be back online after a while... still trading, just working on some things :-)
  • #76
  • Sep 18, 2007 12:52am Sep 18, 2007 12:52am
All based on principles of the Guppy multiple moving average, otherwise known as GMMA. All daily charts.
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  • #77
  • Edited 1:39am Sep 22, 2007 1:23am | Edited 1:39am
This is the author of "Trading in the Zone" speaking in a lecture. It will change the way you think about trading--especially the first 37 minutes!!

http://www.woodiescciclub.com/Lectur...glas/index.htm
  • #78
  • Edited Sep 25, 2007 7:54am Sep 24, 2007 10:32am | Edited Sep 25, 2007 7:54am
GBPUSD

Woodies CCI ZLR on a 15m chart.
+1%
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  • #79
  • Sep 25, 2007 7:52am Sep 25, 2007 7:52am
Eurjpy

Zlr
-0.9%
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  • #80
  • Sep 25, 2007 8:07am Sep 25, 2007 8:07am
GBPUSD

Woodies ZLR
+1.14%
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