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  • #18,961
  • Feb 4, 2026 10:14pm Feb 4, 2026 10:14pm
Quoting josip
EURUSD Is the “decision zone” already R? YES. The blue decision zone around 1.1845 – 1.1829 is currently resistance. Reason: the H1 bullish structure was invalidated (below 1.18292) returns into the zone are retests from below the market is already reacting with rejection there currently acting as R ECB – hawkish scenario If the ECB is clearly hawkish: The first stop must be broken: R: 1.1845 (decision zone) Without an H1 close above 1.1845, every spike is just...
Thanks! Dad. I can always count on you. lol
  • #18,962
  • Edited 10:50pm Feb 4, 2026 10:33pm | Edited 10:50pm
The EUR/USD is currently trading with a bearish bias below the 1.1800 and 1.1838 resistance levels. If this downward pressure persists, the pair could see an initial move toward 1.1867/61. Should bearish momentum intensify later in the session, a break below key support could see the pair targeting 1.1728. Conversely, if the pair climbs above the primary resistance, it may challenge 1.1875 with a target of 1.1895.


Daily volatility (range) 54 pips

Significant news - ECB Deposit Rate, US Initial Jobless Claims & US JOLTS Job Openings


Have great day!

4H
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  • #18,963
  • Feb 5, 2026 9:25am Feb 5, 2026 9:25am
No surprising moves today, the pair continues to trade inside the 1.1838 and 1.1776 range. Maybe it should continue the same price action until a break below as the short term trend dictates but some red us news disagree so the pair might squeeze shorts and test 1.1850. Only time will tell! NFP is next week so I watch at news feeds for any other news that will be "moving". Take care
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  • #18,964
  • Feb 5, 2026 9:54am Feb 5, 2026 9:54am
likewise, xau might have a few opportunities
It is what it is
  • #18,965
  • Edited 12:25pm Feb 5, 2026 11:42am | Edited 12:25pm
Stealth Mode Reversal ?
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  • #18,966
  • Feb 5, 2026 12:30pm Feb 5, 2026 12:30pm
DXY H1
trendline, SMC

On H4 DXY, the current situation is:

  1. 97.43 = structural pivot (H4 BOS / CHOCH UP)
  2. price ~97.48 = just above the pivot
  3. today’s move is so far only a pullback / consolidation

If DXY does not create a new high (continuation), the probability increases that:

  1. buyers are losing momentum
  2. the market returns to the pivot zone
  3. a close below 97.43 may occur


That is also the reason why EURUSD is not aggressively dropping below 1.1760 yet...
An H1 close below 97.43 on DXY would open room for EURUSD to rise.

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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #18,967
  • Feb 5, 2026 1:32pm Feb 5, 2026 1:32pm
eu going sideways… nothing much to add from my end really.

pa remain above 1743 and untouched. If we drop i see a potential of going down to 1670.

usdx target around 98 or 98.50

if we bounce from here first target 1850, not sure if we will resume the uptrend, my bet is bear is not done and 2084 could be the top for a while.i could be wrong
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #18,968
  • Feb 5, 2026 1:39pm Feb 5, 2026 1:39pm
The 'contraction between the last two order blocks reminds me of the 'Hatfields and McCoys' fighting for turf. One way or the other next is expansion of the range and a trend phase up or down. Someone here said to see where price is going look left, not right. I 100% think that is correct. Follow the money. All the long wicks at the bottom could be stop hunting?
  • #18,969
  • Feb 5, 2026 2:58pm Feb 5, 2026 2:58pm
Back to the lower bound of the range… looks like a descending triangle set up pointing a bit lower
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #18,970
  • Edited 3:55pm Feb 5, 2026 3:26pm | Edited 3:55pm
EURUSD H1
trendlines, SMC, and Measured move in a bear channel (triple zone box)

If DXY holds above 97.43:

  1. EURUSD will struggle to rise
  2. rallies will more likely be pullbacks
  3. pressure on 1.1760 remains


Current position for EURUSD
Price:

  1. below 1.17828 (H1 BOS DOWN)
  2. above 1.1760 (H4 support)

This is exactly a continuation pocket.

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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #18,971
  • Feb 5, 2026 10:26pm Feb 5, 2026 10:26pm
The EUR/USD dropped to 1.1765 before recovering some ground, however, it remains trading below the 1.1821 and 1.1838 resistance levels. This downward trend is expected to continue unless profit-taking pushes the price higher, with 1.1875 as the next potential target. On the downside, support at 1.1761 is expected to hold, but a break below this level - particularly following 'red folder' news, could see the pair target 1.1728 and 1.1700.


Daily volatility (range) 55 pips

Significant news - Iran - US Meeting & University Michigan Sentiment


Have great day!
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  • #18,972
  • Feb 5, 2026 10:44pm Feb 5, 2026 10:44pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EUR/USD dropped to 1.1765 before recovering some ground, however, it remains trading below the 1.1821 and 1.1838 resistance levels. This downward trend is expected to continue unless profit-taking pushes the price higher, with 1.1875 as the next potential target. On the downside, support at 1.1761 is expected to hold, but a break below this level - particularly following 'red folder' news, could see the pair target 1.1728 and 1.1700. Daily volatility (range) 55 pips Significant news - Iran - US Meeting & University Michigan Sentiment Have great...
looks like the low is gonna hold for the week with potential bounce towards 1845 1890 levels
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #18,973
  • Edited 11:15pm Feb 5, 2026 10:53pm | Edited 11:15pm
Clearing 1.17900 is an 'area of interest' I have been watching. Price has just cleared a 4 hour long stretch breaker block from yesterday plus another that is in the same price (range) structure and still moving up. "Looking LEFT" on a higher time frame shows several area of interest where resistance is now defended by buyers with a higher time frame horizon, the deep pockets. Support and resistance is everywhere just like buyers and sellers are everywhere and always it is the same. One buyer for one seller and it boils down to which camp is more aggressive. It's always a War. It still blows my mind how we can share thoughts whether or not we agree it makes you think. When I started none of this existed, just a newspaper (IBD or Wall Street Journal) and a phone call to you broker to place a trade. No internet, a few old timer books you could read and learning it all by yourself unless you moved to NYC and had a job like Oliver Velez who is almost as old as me. lol He's on YT btw.
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  • #18,974
  • Feb 5, 2026 11:45pm Feb 5, 2026 11:45pm
GOOD LUCK!
Let's see if this operation gets me out of this bad streak.
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  • #18,975
  • Feb 5, 2026 11:52pm Feb 5, 2026 11:52pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} looks like the low is gonna hold for the week with potential bounce towards 1845 1890 levels
I feel the same but the risk is to stuck here around 1.1800 and then an Iran - US deal is the tail risk and could hit both sides depending the result. 1.1850 and 1.1750 can break in either side then.

I'll stop trading for the day and wait for the next week. Maybe scalp some first or before the close but definitely its not wise to keep open heavy positions at the weekend.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #18,976
  • Feb 6, 2026 1:02am Feb 6, 2026 1:02am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} I feel the same but the risk is to stuck here around 1.1800 and then an Iran - US deal is the tail risk and could hit both sides depending the result. 1.1850 and 1.1750 can break in either side then. I'll stop trading for the day and wait for the next week. Maybe scalp some first or before the close but definitely its not wise to keep open heavy positions at the weekend.
yea its public holiday here in nz and have been out the whole day. Not gonna do much today unless i see a really good trading opportunity

bull have to first closed above 1800 to break the downward channel.

from daily weekly perspective, i smell potential reversal, it needs confirmation - daily, weekly, and finally monthly closing back below 1750.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #18,977
  • Feb 6, 2026 2:07am Feb 6, 2026 2:07am
watching closely
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #18,978
  • Feb 6, 2026 2:23am Feb 6, 2026 2:23am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea its public holiday here in nz and have been out the whole day. Not gonna do much today unless i see a really good trading opportunity bull have to first closed above 1800 to break the downward channel. from daily weekly perspective, i smell potential reversal, it needs confirmation - daily, weekly, and finally monthly closing back below 1750.
Its early yet to say but consolidation is the game in town for now. If I see a stronger bearish action below 1.1800 then I might think to target below 1.1700 but not yet.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #18,979
  • Feb 6, 2026 2:33am Feb 6, 2026 2:33am
Manufactured liquidity grab poised to set the tone for the London session lower obviously. Price is about half way through the order blocks and still receding or stalling? Big money is so dang powerful they push retailers around with ease.
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  • #18,980
  • Feb 6, 2026 2:35am Feb 6, 2026 2:35am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Its early yet to say but consolidation is the game in town for now. If I see a stronger bearish action below 1.1800 then I might think to target below 1.1700 but not yet.
yea i still hope to see a lot lower once we start closing below 1743. But it takes time to develop
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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