Only EURUSD

The EUR/USD is trading above 1.1900 after a brief drop to 1.1895. The first resistance zone is at 1.1975, the second at 1.1995–1.2000, and the third at 1.2025/50. The support levels at 1.1890/1.1900 are holding the pair from a drop lower - first to 1.1850 and then to 1.1835.

Daily volatility (range) 63 pips

Significant news - US PPI


Have a great day!

4H

eurusd h1
Just an update to the original plan.
We see weaker bulls and a potential rising wedge, but without a downside break this is NOT a signal to change the plan.

 

1. weakening impulses (already visible)
2. break of the wedge to the downside
3. H1 close < 1.1900 (first confirmation of weakness)
4. H1 close < 1.1845 (confirmation of character change)
5. 
   Range: 1.1900 – 1.1950
6. We are between key levels
7. 1.1900 → H1 BOS (support)
8. 1.1950 → intraday supply / reaction high

SUMMARY
It is still more BULLISH than bearish, even though momentum is weakening.
For a high-quality continuation UP, it is good (and healthy) for price to move ABOVE the upper orange line on H1.

remain above 1890 so bull in control! Sellers have to be careful

today is month end, expect pa to be a bit volatile. Bull wants to close the month above 1.2 to set the scene for Feb. bear wants to at least close below 1890

There are so many imbalances intertwined on the higher timeframe that the now bearish narrative is entirely plausible. Waiting for the 4h candle closure below the breaker´s lowest body close.

red folder news today on top - let´s see how price utilizes them for a last push

Big picture description:
On the 4h timeframe price is behaving like a market that has already made its bullish run and is now:
- distributing
- flipping prior bullish narrative reference points
- reallocating liquidity lower

Point-by-Point narrative:

1. Imbalances from below, weekly OB and daily VI showing support

1. i. Support exists, but price is not reacting impulsively from it
2. ii. Instead price is stalling and allowing distribution above

⇒ Support is being used, and not defended ⇒ bearish-neutral, turning bearish

2. 4h bearish breaker with CISD confirmed (candle closure in 2h)
1. CISD logic: close below lowest body close of the breaker
2. wicks define range, bodies define idea validity
⇒ CISD = permission, not acceleration guarantee

3. rejecting daily BISI as support & using 4h SIBI as resistance
1. daily BISI failed failed to hold
2. 4h SIBI being respected from below
⇒ higher timeframe reference fails ⇒ lower timeframe reference takes control

4. inside a 4h BIBI, but price retraced into it, made a lower low, confirming the bearish breaker
1. structure > location
2. even though price is inside a BISI:

1. i. it did not respect it
2. ii. it created a lower low
3. iii. it validated the breaker

2. red folder news (Core PPI)
1. expecting volatility expansion
2. stop runs around HTF levels
3. fake respect ⇒ real move after

3. next draw on liquidity

1. previous week´s high at this week´s NDOG
2. in near proximity:

1. i. Asia low
2. ii. key levels 1.19000, 1.18750, 1.18500

main focus may remain be new Fed chair announcement

Bit off topic but glad i dont usually touch gold…. Crazy move in the last two weeks

Seems eu ignores everything now and that's heading for a 1.1900-1.1890 test.
Also need to watch if a market friendly appointment will be welcomed by Trump. So what he is going to say and how will be critical for eu.

Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the chairman of the Federal reserve. Hedge funds continue to sell that spike with scope a break of 1.1900. Lets see!


Edit: And us ppi now out green double trouble for eu bulls!

good trade

my next plane for eur

At this . I'm thinking it'll fall, unless the bulls show up. I gotta w8 and see how they respond to this level. I went on tilt earlier this morning, mad at myself but gotta keep going, can't win em all, manage your risk. Might finally see that gap filled, or not

I am rethinking to KEEP hedge on when we get to 1.1860. The powerful sell off in silver and gold may see this run to 1,1800 area before the trade catches it's breath. I will be waiting to see a turn in sentiment. The new shutdown is the BIG DOG. Stay protected for the down slide in EURUSD. TRADE SAFE!

Happy trades to you,
NB

Technical 1.1850 sits just below and then 1.1800 is a major psychological level that should offer some relief and logical another one run to the upside but there is no need to hurry up, Monday is near and we can just relax for the weekend!

See you again. Bye!

Right now, gold is down 7% and silver down 18%. I am selling/sold most of my paper gold and silver and buying paper USD to weather the storm. I don't think the US government shut will get fully priced in until after they close to government. More downside next week or maybe more. Best to take profits now and worry about paying taxes in December of 2026. Lots of time to cover.

Happy trades to you,
NB

finally an hour closed below 1890 but daily close matters!
i hav trendline support at around 187x but 1850-60 and 1830 my target.

not sure if 1743 will be visited at some point

Weekly chart looks ugly if we close like this

1830 is possible

bullish reversal might be forming...

hit support zone and boom!
too late to do anything now see you all next week

window is still open till 15:15 NY time - retrace into iFVG