Morning Briefing

30 Jan 26. 0843 IST or 0313 GMT or 2213 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY has a scope to rebound towards 98 while it remains above 96. EURUSD & EURINR can fall towards 1.18 & 109/108 while they trade below 1.21 & 111 respectively. and 110. EURJPY can hold the 182-186 range for now. USDJPY can target 156 in the near term while it remains above 152. USDCNY may ease towards 6.90. Aussie & Pound can decline towards 0.69-0.68 & 1.36 in the coming sessions if the ongoing fall persists. USDINR tested the resistance near 92 and closed slightly lower. A break above 92 can take it higher towards 92.25-92.50. US PPI data is scheduled for release today.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. The bias remains positive to break the immediate resistance and rise further. The German Yields remain stable. They continue to remain vulnerable for a fall. A strong rise above their immediate resistance is needed to negate the expected fall. The 10Yr GoI has come down from its high on Thursday. There is room to rise more from here before a reversal happens.

The Dow is holding above support at 48500 and can rise towards 49500/600 in the near term while the Dax has declined sharply and has scope for further dip to 24000-23800 in the coming days. Nifty could trade between 25000-25500/600 for the near term. Thereafter, a decisive break past 25600 will be bullish towards 26000-26500 in the longer run. Nikkei could rise towards 54000/55000 while above support near 53000. Shanghai can continue trade within 4200-4100.

Brent and WTI have strengthened on Middle East geopolitical tensions, with further upside seen towards $72–$73 and $67–$68 respectively. Gold has pulled back from record highs and needs to hold above $5600 to revive upside momentum. Silver remains weak below $120 with downside risks. Copper is easing from recent highs but stays positive above $6. Natural Gas has turned higher, with a break above $4 opening room for further gains.

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03 Feb 26. 0850 IST or 0320 GMT or 2220 EST

Good Morning!

The U.S. announced a reduction in tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, while the Dollar Index strengthened on a better than expected Manufacturing ISM at 52.6. DXY now faces resistance near 98.00-98.50, which can cap the upside and keep it range-bound between 96.00–98.50. EURUSD has declined as expected; support near the 1.18 MA needs to hold for a rebound. EURINR have declined due to Rupee strength. Immediate support near 106.00-105.50 can get tested if the fall continues. URJPY can remain within the 182–186 range, while USDJPY, below 156, may test 154-153. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90, the Aussie may trade within 0.69-0.71. While Pound can attempt to bounce towards 1.38 if it sustained above 1.36. USDINR has fallen sharply on the trade deal news. Immediate support is coming around 90 which can get tested soon. US ADP Employment data release is scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields are moving up within their range in line with our expectation. Our bias is positive to see a bullish breakout of this range eventually if not immediately. The German Yields are moving up. Further rise from here is needed to ease the danger of falling back. We will have to wait and see. The 10Yr GoI has surged above its resistance. Higher borrowing plan announced in the Budget on Sunday has triggered this rise. There is room for the 10Yr GoI to move further higher from here.

The Dow and the DAX trade higher and look bullish towards 50000/52000 and 25000/25500 respectively. The overnight announcement of US-India trade deal and lower tariffs of both countries on each others goods could rise optimism in the Asian indices. The agreement of India to stop buying Russian oil and to potentially buy US and Venezuela oil has led to a trade deal In favor of India with reduced tariffs. Nikkei is already up sharply by 2.5% and could test 54000-55000. The posiitve trade deal could lead to a rally in Nifty today. Near term target of 26000-26500 is still in place while above 25000. Shanghai has broken below 4050 but if it does not bounce back immediately, it has scope to test 3980-3950 before pausing for a reversal.

Brent and WTI have fallen as expected on easing Middle East tensions, with downside seen towards $64 and $60. Gold and Silver have bounced from key supports near $4400 and $70, keeping the upside open towards higher levels. Copper may test support near $5.40 before a possible rebound. Natural Gas holds near $3.20, above which a bounce is possible, else further downside cannot be ruled out.

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04 Feb 26. 0838 IST or 0308 GMT or 2208 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY can trade within 98.50-96.00 for now. EURUSD has recovered but a rise past 1.1850 will be needed to head towards 1.19 and above. EURINR has a scope to rise back towards 108 and higher while it remains above the support coming around 106.00-105.50. EURJPY can remain within the 182-186 range. While USDJPY has risen past 156 and if sustained, can test 158 in the coming sessions. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90-6.85 levels. The Aussie may trade within 0.69-0.71 region. While Pound can attempt to bounce towards 1.38 if it sustained above 1.36. USDINR can remain ranged within 90-91 region for now. IN Services PMI & US ADP Employment data are scheduled for release today.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. They are range bound now and are going up within that. We expect the yields to make a bullish breakout eventually. The German yields are heading up and can rise further. The danger of seeing a fall back has eased. The ECB meeting outcome tomorrow will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has come down. But support can limit the downside. Outlook is bullish and the yield can rise back and keep the uptrend intact.

The Dow and the DAX have dipped. Although both indices can show a corrective dip, they need to sustain above 49000-48500 and 24000 to gradually turn bullish in the medium term. Nifty opened with a gap up as expected but declined to close below 25800. With 250000-24000 being a strong long term support, we may now expect Nifty to start rising slowly with an initial test of 26500 soon. Nikkei is headed towards 55000 while above 53000. Shanghai manages to hold above 4050 and could show a gradual rise towards 4100-4200. A broad range of 4050-4200 may continue to hold.

Crude prices have bounced back from recent lows amid rising US-Iran tensions. Brent likely to trade within $65-$70 and WTI within $61-$66 for now. Gold and Silver have rebounded in line with expectations and can continue their upward move towards $5200-$5300 and $88-$89 respectively. Copper has also turned higher and can extend gains towards $6.10-$6.20. Natural Gas has bounced from $3.2 support and can rise further towards $3.4-$3.6 in the near term.

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05 Feb 26. 0832 IST or 0302 GMT or 2202 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY need to sustain above 97.50 to head towards 98.50 in the near term. EURUSD is stuck between 1.1850-1.1750 region. EURINR has declined but downside can be limited to 106.00-105.50. EURJPY can remain within the 182-186 range. While USDJPY can test 158 in the coming sessions. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90-6.85 levels. The Aussie may trade within 0.71-0.69 region. Pound is coming off and a break below 1.36 if seen can take it towards 1.350-1.345 levels. USDINR can remain ranged within 90-91 region for now. Watch out for the ECB & the BOE meeting scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields continue to remain stable. For now, the yields are stuck inside a range and are likely to remain intact for some more time. Eventually we expect the yields to make a bullish breakout of their range. German yields have come down. Immediate picture looks unclear. Need to see if the ECB meeting outcome today is providing any trigger to push the yields higher. The 10Yr GoI has come down further. It can dip to test its support and then reverse higher to resume the broader uptrend.

The Dow needs to break above 49600 to rise further to 50000-50200 while the DAX needs to sustain trade above 24500 to avoid any decline to 24000-23500. Nifty is holding above 25500 for now and has scope to eventually rise towards 26000 and higher. Nikkei is headed towards 55000 while above 53000. Shanghai has dipped today after closing above 4100 yesterday. While we expect a range of 4200-4050 to hold, any break below 4050 can take it down towards 3900.

Brent and WTI have moved up but remain range-bound below $70 and within $66–$61 respectively. Gold needs to hold above $5000 to resume the earlier rise, while silver has weakened and risks a fall towards $76–$74 unless $90 is cleared. Copper must sustain above $6 to regain upside momentum. Natural gas remains positive with scope to rise towards $3.5–$3.6.

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06 Feb 26. 0837 IST or 0307 GMT or 2207 EST

Good Morning!

The ECB & BOE kept the interest rates unchanged at 2.15% & 3.75% respectively. The DXY can test 98.50 in the near term before eventually coming down. EURUSD is stuck between 1.1850-1.1750 region. EURINR has declined but downside can be limited to 106.00-105.50. EURJPY can remain within the 186-182 range. USDJPY can test 158 while it remains above 156/55. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90-6.85 levels. The Aussie may trade within 0.71-0.69 region. Pound declined as expected. Now, immediate support is seen around 1.345 and while it holds, the pair can attempt to rise back towards 1.36 and higher. USDINR can remain ranged within 90-91 region for now. Watch out for the RBI MPC meeting scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply after the initial jobless claims data release showed a significant increase. The fall is contrary to our expectation. Further dip is possible before a reversal happens. The unemployment data release will be important to watch. The German Yields have dipped and are struggling to rise. There is room to fall more from here. The ECB kept the rates unchanged in its meeting yesterday and it was largely a non-event for the market. The 10Yr GoI has dipped below its support contrary to our expectation. Some more fall is possible before the broader uptrend resumes. The RBI monetary policy meeting outcome today will need a close watch.

Sell off in tech shares in the US and weaker US employment data has led to decline in most major indices across the globe. The Dow, Dax, Nifty, Nikkei and Shanghai are all headed towards near term supports at 48000, 24400, 25600, 53000 and 4000 respectively. The supports need to hold for the indices to bounce back in the medium term. Else the indices could be vulnerable to decline further. Watch price action near the mentioned supports.

Brent and WTI are under pressure and can stay range-bound between $70-$65 and $66-$61 respectively. Gold and Silver remain weak with further downside towards $4700-$4600 and $65-$60. Copper can extend its decline towards $5.50-$5.40. Natural Gas is holding firm and can rise further towards $3.55-$3.60 in the near term.

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09 Feb 26. 0845 IST or 0315 GMT or 2215 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY & EURUSD are stuck within 98-97 & 1.1750-1.1850 region respectively. EURINR has a scope to rise towards 107.50-108.00 while it remains above 107. EURJPY has declined from the high of 186.23. There is room in the charts for the pair to extend the rise towards 187.50 as well while it remains above 182.50. USDJPY can move within 158-156 range for now. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90-6.85 levels. The Aussie may trade within 0.69-0.71 region. Pound need to break past 1.365 to bring higher levels into picture. USDINR can remain ranged within 90-91 region for now.

The US Treasury yields have risen back from their lows. Failure to sustain this bounce can drag them down in the near term. The German Yields remain lower and stable. They have room to fall further from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen back sharply after the RBI meeting on Friday. The RBI kept the repo rates unchanged at 5.25%. The rise back move has happened much faster than expected and it keeps intact our broader bullish view. More rise is on the cards.

The Dow has recovered the sell off in tech shares seen last week. A break above 50500 can take it towards 52000. The Dax has also moved up from support near 24400. Now a break past 25000 would be further bullish for the medium term. Nifty is holding above 25600 but needs a break past 26000 for a further rally in the medium term. Nikkei has rallied after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landmark election victory. While the rally continues, 58000 could be the next target. Shanghai is rising towards 4100-4200 as expected.

Brent and WTI remain range bound below $70 and $66, with Brent holding $70–$65 and WTI $66–$61. Gold and Silver have bounced sharply from recent lows. Gold needs a break above $5100 to move towards $5300–$5500, while Silver can extend the rise towards $90–$95. Copper has bounced back, though a sustained move above $6.00 is needed for further upside. Natural Gas has fallen, but support near $3.10 can limit the fall and allow a bounce towards $3.50.


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10 Feb 26. 0844 IST or 0314 GMT or 2214 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY declined over the news of Chinese banks might cut U.S. Treasury holdings. If the fall continues further, a test to 96.00-95.50 can be seen. EURUSD has rise past 1.1850 and while it sustains, a test to 1.20 and above can happen. EURINR has a scope to rise towards 109-110 while it remains above 107. EURJPY can remain ranged within 187.50-182.50. USDJPY has been coming off and a break below 155 if seen can make it vulnerable to extend the fall towards 154-153 levels. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90-6.85 levels. The Aussie is trading higher within 0.69-0.71 region. Pound has risen past 1.365 and if sustained, can head toward 1.37-1.38 levels. USDINR can remain ranged within 90-91 region for now. US Retail Sales is scheduled for release today.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply from their highs. They can fall more from here. The unemployment data release tomorrow will need a close watch. The German yields sustain lower. They have room to fall more from here to test their support. The price action thereafter will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI continues to move up in line with our expectation and keeps intact our bullish view.

The Dow and the DAX have risen well but need to sustain trade above 50500 and 25000 to move up further else could be headed for a correction soon. Nifty has risen too and could continue to rise slowly towards 26000 and gradually higher. Nikkei continues the election rally and may continue to rise towards 58000-58500 before pausing for a correction. Shanghai is rising towards 4200 as expected.

Brent has risen on higher risk premium after US advisories around the Strait of Hormuz but remains capped below $70 within $65–$70, while WTI continues to trade in a $61–$66 range. Gold is holding below $5100 and needs a sustained break to move towards $5300–$5500. Silver retains an upside bias towards $90–$95. Copper requires a break above $6.00 for a move to $6.20–$6.40. Natural gas is holding near $3.10 support with scope for a bounce towards $3.30–$3.50.

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11 Feb 26. 0833 IST or 0303 GMT or 2203 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY can decline towards 96.00-95.50 in the near term. While, EURUSD can attempt to rise towards 1.20 and higher. EURINR can target 109-110 while it stays above 107. EURJPY is coming off within its 187.50-182.50 range. USDJPY can fall towards 153-152 levels before rebounding later on. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90-6.85 levels. The Aussie has moved past 0.71 and if sustained, can test 0.7150-0.7200 levels in the near term. Pound need to sustain above 1.365 to head toward 1.38 and higher levels. USDINR can remain ranged within 90-91 region for now. US NFP, US Unemployment & US Avg Hrly Earnings data are scheduled for release today.

The US Treasury yields have come down further sharply. The fall is in line with our expectation, but the pace of fall is a surprise. There is room to fall further from here before a reversal is seen. The Retail Sales for December at 1.98% (YoY) down from 2.94% (November) triggered this fall. The unemployment rate data release today will need a close watch. The German Yields are coming down in line with our expectation. They can fall more. The 10Yr GoI has come down but support is there to limit the downside. The yield can reverse higher from this support and resume the upmove.

The Dow and the DAX need to break above 50500 and 25000 respectively to move up further else could soon see a correction from current levels itself. Nifty is headed towards 26000 and higher. Nikkei continues to rally and targets 58000-58500 before pausing for a correction while Shanghai is rising towards 4200 as expected.

Brent and WTI continue to trade within their respective ranges of $70–$66 and $66–$62, awaiting a decisive breakout. Gold is struggling below $5100 and needs a sustained move above it to target $5300–$5500, else it risks slipping towards $4800–$4700. Silver faces resistance near $90, which could cap gains and push it down to $70–$65. Copper must rise past $6.00 to strengthen towards $6.20–$6.40, while Natural Gas holds above $3.10 and can bounce towards $3.30–$3.50 as long as this support remains intact.

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12 Feb 26. 0805 IST or 0235 GMT or 2135 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY can decline towards 96.00-95.50 with upside capped at 97.50. EURUSD can attempt to rise towards crucial resistance near 1.20 while above 1.18 while . EURINR can test support at 106 and bounce back towards 109-110. EURJPY has support near 180 from where a rebound can take the pair back to 184/186 in the medium term while USDJPY can fall towards support near 151 before rebounding to 156. USDCNY can drift toward crucial support at 6.85. The Aussie can target 0.7150-0.7200 while the Pound needs to sustain above 1.37 to head toward 1.38+ levels. USDINR can remain ranged within the 90.30-91.00 region for now with scope for a rise to 91.25/91.50 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have risen back well after the jobs data release. The US added 130K jobs to its NFP. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. If the bounce in the yields sustain, further rise is possible. Broadly, the yields can oscillate in a range and can move up within it. The German yields have come down to their supports as expected. Failure to bounce back from here can drag them further lower from here. The 10Yr GoI is also at its intermediate support. We expect a rise from here. However, a little extended fall cannot be avoided before the expected rise happens in case the yield breaks the support from here. We will have to wait and watch.

Global equities are holding firm with a mildly positive bias. The Dow needs a sustained move above 50500 to target 52000. DAX must break above 25000 to avoid a dip towards 24800–24500. Nifty remains bullish for 26000–26500 despite a slight dip. Nikkei is advancing towards 58000–58500, while Shanghai stays positive to test 4200 before a corrective pullback towards 4100–4000.

Brent and WTI tested recent highs but need to break above $70 and $66 respectively to gain fresh momentum, otherwise they may remain range-bound within $70–$66 and $66–$62. Gold must sustain above $5100 to target $5300–$5500, failing which it risks a decline towards $4800–$4700. Silver faces resistance near $90 that could limit the rise and drag it towards $70–$65. Copper needs a firm move above $6.00 to extend higher towards $6.20–$6.40. Natural Gas has rebounded from support with scope to rise towards $3.30–$3.50 as long as that support holds.

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13 Feb 26. 0841 IST or 0311 GMT or 2211 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY can rise to 97.50/98 while above 97. EURUSD can trade within 1.1950-1.1750 region while EURINR seems to be rising towards 108/110 while above 106/107.
EURJPY has support near 180 above which a rise to 184/186 looks likely in the medium term while USDJPY can rise towards 154/156 while above 153. USDCNY trades above 6.90 and while it sustains higher, it can rise to 6.95. Crucial support is seen at 6.85. The Aussie can test 0.70/69 while below 0.71 while the Pound needs to break past 1.37 to head toward 1.38+ levels, else can initially test 1.35. USDINR can remain ranged within the 90.30-90.85 region for now with scope for a rise to 91.25/91.50 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply after a weak housing data release on Thursday. The US Existing Home Sales fell to 3910K in January, down from 4270K in December. The Yields are now at their support. They have to rise back immediately in order to avoid more fall. The US CPI data release will be important watch. The German Yields remain lower and stable. They have to bounce back immediately. Else they can fall further. The 10Yr GoI has come down below its support. It can fall more from here and then see a reversal.

Global indices have turned weaker than expected. Dow and Nikkei have fallen and can see further downside unless key resistance levels are reclaimed. Shanghai also risks additional decline. DAX needs a sustained break above 25000 to regain upward momentum, otherwise it may slip further. Nifty is holding near support at 25750 and can bounce towards 26200–26400 as long as this level remains intact.

Crude prices have eased. Brent and WTI have fallen on softer US-Iran tensions but still holding within their broader $70–$66 and $66–$62 ranges. Gold and Silver remain under pressure, with downside targets intact. Copper has reversed lower and may decline further to $5.70. Natural Gas is gradually rising and can test $3.30–$3.50 in the near term.

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16 Feb 26. 0815 IST or 0245 GMT or 2145 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY has dipped below 97 but needs to rebound back immediately to rise towards 97.50/98. Euro has support at 1.1850 which is likely to hold and push the spot towards 1.1950-1.20. EURINR on the other hand could dip to 106.35 while below 108. EURJPY could gradually rise to 184/186 while above 181/180. USDJPY could rise towards 154/156 while above 153-152.25. USDCNY can rise to 6.92 while above 6.90, crucial support remains at 6.85. The Aussie can test 0.70/69 while below 0.7150 while the Pound needs to break past 1.37 to head toward 1.38+ levels, else can initially test 1.35. USDINR can trade within the 90.30-90.80/85 region for now.

The US Treasury yields have declined further sharply, breaking below their key support. That opens the door for the yields to fall more from here. The US CPI data release on Friday triggered this sharp fall. The US Headline CPI came in at 2.39% (for January), down from 2.65% (December). The German yields have also come down further. The bias is negative to see more fall. The 10Yr GoI has risen back from its low of Friday. There is not much room to fall from here. We can expect the yield to rise back in the coming days.

Dow has declined as expected and is holding above key support near 49000, which can create a bounce towards 49800–50000. DAX remains capped below 25000 and looks vulnerable to a fall towards 24800–24500. Nifty has broken below 25500, and remains vulnerable for a decline towards 25200–25000. Nikkei continues to weaken in line with expectations and may head towards 56500–56200. Shanghai has dropped sharply and could test support near 4050 before attempting a rebound.

Crude prices are likely to remain range-bound. Brent holding above $66 within $70–$66 and WTI above $62 within $66–$62. Gold has bounced but remains vulnerable below $5100 for a fall towards $4900–$4800. Silver can decline towards $70–$65. Copper continues to look weak towards $5.70–$5.65. Natural Gas has opened lower after closing higher, but as long as $3 holds, a bounce towards $3.2–$3.4 remains possible.

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17 Feb 26. 0831 IST or 0301 GMT or 2201 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY seems to be stuck in a very narrow range just above 96.75 and could have scope to rise to 97.75/98 while it holds. Euro has broken below our expected support at 1.1850 and could test 1.18-1.17 while the decline sustains. EURINR could continue to dip towards 107-106.50 while below 108. EURJPY and USDJPY look bullish for a slow rise to 184/186 and 155/156 respectively while above 181 and 153. USDCNY can rise to 6.92/95 while above 6.90, with crucial support still at 6.85. The Aussie can test 0.70/69 while below 0.7150 while the Pound needs to break past 1.37 to head toward 1.38+ levels, else can trade within the 1.37-1.35 region. USDINR could continue to remain sideways within 90.40-90.75 region for now.

The US Treasury yields remain stable now. There is room to fall more from here. The German yields stay lower after breaking below their support. While this break sustains, the yields can fall further. The 10Yr GoI is stable. There is limited downside from here as supports are available. We can expect the 10Yr GoI to reverse higher eventually going forward.

Dow is holding above support and can bounce towards 49800–50000 if it sustains. DAX remains weak and may fall further towards 24800–24500. Nifty has rebounded from 25350, but the broader 26000–25000 range may continue with a possible dip towards 25000. Nikkei has declined sharply and could extend losses towards 56200–56000. Shanghai is closed for the Lunar New Year holiday and will resume on 24-Feb-26.

Brent and WTI continue to move within their respective ranges of $70–$66 and $66–$62, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum for now. Gold remains vulnerable to a corrective decline towards $4900–$4800. Silver also maintains a bearish outlook with room to fall towards $70–$65. Copper has seen a rise but still appears prone to a pullback towards $5.70–$5.65 in the coming sessions. Natural Gas is holding above key support and may bounce towards $3.2–$3.4 in the near term.

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18 Feb 26. 0743 IST or 0213 GMT or 2113 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY could head towards 96.75-98 while Euro can dip to 1.18-1.17 while below 1.1875. EURINR could continue to dip towards support near 107-106.50 while below 108. EURJPY and USDJPY look bullish for a slow rise to 184/186 and 155/156 respectively while above respective supports at 181/180 and 152/151. USDCNY can rise to 6.92/95 while above 6.90, with crucial support still at 6.85. The Aussie can test 0.70/69 while below 0.7150 while the Pound needs to break past 1.37 to head toward 1.38+ levels, else can trade within the 1.37-1.35 region. Any break below 1.35 could make it vulnerable to decline further. USDINR could continue to remain sideways within 90.40-90.75 region for now with a possible breakout on the upside towards 91.

The US Treasury yields remain lower and stable. They can dip further from here and then can possibly rise back. The German Yields have dipped slightly. They are moving down in line with our expectation and can fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI remains stable. There is not much room on the downside. The yield can rise back in the coming days.

Dow is holding above support and can bounce towards 49800–50000 while the level sustains. DAX has recovered from 24731 but faces resistance near 25200, below which a fall towards 24600–24500 remains possible. Nifty is approaching resistance at 25,800, and unless it breaks higher towards 26,000–26,200, a dip to 25,500–25,200 can be seen. Nikkei has tested 56190 and may decline further towards 56,150–56,000. Shanghai remains closed for the Lunar New Year and will resume trading on 24-Feb-26.

Brent and WTI are likely to remain range-bound within $70–$66 and $66–$62 respectively for now. Gold has declined as expected and may extend its fall towards $4850–$4800. Silver also looks weak with scope to test $70–$65. Copper has tested $5.62 and needs to hold above $5.65 for a bounce towards $5.7–$5.8, else it can slip towards $5.6–$5.5. Natural Gas is holding above support and may recover towards $3.2–$3.4 in the near term.

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20 Feb 26. 0842 IST or 0312 GMT or 2212 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY has risen as expected and could test 98 while the Euro is declining towards 1.17. EURINR could continue to dip towards support near 107-106.50. EURJPY can test 184 a break above which is needed for a further rise to 186. USDJPY has moved up well and can test 156. USDCNY is stuck just above 6.90 and may continue so with immediate upside limited to 6.92. The Aussie can test 0.70/69 while below 0.7150 while the Pound can test 1.34/1.3350 before pausing for a bounce. USDINR rallied to 91.18 on the NDF and needs to see if such a rally is seen today on the Onshore which could open chances of 91.25/91.50. Else the earlier range of 90.80-90.40 could continue to hold today.

The US Treasury yields have come off from their highs. That keeps the downside open to fall more before a reversal happens. The US PCE data release today will need a close watch. The German Yields remain stable and range bound. The near-term picture is weak. The yields have room to fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI is holding well above its supports. We can expect the yield to rise in the coming days. Support is there to limit the downside.

Global markets are mixed. The Dow is holding above support and can move up towards 49800–50000. DAX has fallen from recent highs but can recover towards 25300–25500 as long as it holds above 24900–24800. Nifty has reversed lower but can bounce towards 25600–25800 while above 25300, else it may slip to 25200–25000. Nikkei remains weak with downside towards 56150–56000. Shanghai is closed for the holiday and will reopen on 24-Feb-26.

Brent has risen on geopolitical risks and needs to sustain above $72 to move towards $74–$76. While WTI must hold above $66 to extend gains towards $68–$70. Gold is likely to stay range-bound between $5100–$4800 and Silver between $80–$70 in the near term. Copper has bounced from support, but a break above $5.8 is needed for a rise towards $6.0–$6.2. Natural Gas looks weak, and a sustained break below current support can drag it lower towards $2.7–$2.6.

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23 Feb 26. 0815 IST or 0245 GMT or 2145 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY can rise towards 99 while above 97.50 while Euro can dip towards 1.17/1.16 on a break below 1.18. EURINR could rise to 108 while above 106. EURJPY can test 184 initially, a break above which is needed for a further rise to 186. USDJPY has moved up well and can face resistance from 156 and fall to 154. USDCNY can rise towards 6.92. The Aussie and Pound can rise, while above 0.70 and 1.34 respectively. USDINR needs to break above 91 to rise towards 91.50 else can dip to 90.50/30 soon.

The US Treasury yields are attempting to rise back. But they have to break their immediate resistances to go higher. Else, they can fall back again to test their supports and then possibly see a rise. The German yields remain lower. They can fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen well. That keeps intact our bullish view. The yields can rise further in the coming weeks.

Dow is hovering above key support and looks likely to bounce towards 49,800–50,000 as long as it holds. DAX remains firm after testing recent highs and can extend gains towards 25,400–25,500 in the near term. Nifty has moved higher and is expected to stay within the 25,300–26,000 range while support holds. Nikkei continues to weaken as expected, with further downside towards 56,150–56,000 likely. Shanghai remains closed for the Lunar New Year holiday and will resume trading from 24-Feb-26.

Brent and WTI remains positive with scope to move up towards $74–$76 and $68–$70 respectively. Gold is testing the $5,100 level and a sustained break above this can trigger a rally towards $5,250–$5,350. Silver is moving higher and may retest $90 if the momentum holds. Copper needs a sustained break above $5.80 to extend the rise towards $6.00–$6.20. Natural Gas stays biased higher towards $3.20–$3.40 as long as immediate support holds.

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24 Feb 26. 0848 IST or 0318 GMT or 2218 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY can rise towards 99 while Euro can dip towards 1.17/1.16. EURINR could rise to 108 while above 106.70. EURJPY can test 184 initially, a break above which is needed for a further rise to 186 while USDJPY has moved up well from 153.99 and can move to test near term resistance at 156. USDCNY has fallen and while it sustains below 6.90, a dip to 6.85 looks possible. The Aussie and Pound can rise towards 0.71 and 1.36 respectively. USDINR moved up yesterday to close at 90.8875. If it holds below 91, a dip back towards 90.50/30 can be possible else, a rise to 91.25/50 could come into the picture.

The US Treasury yields have come down again. They can fall more to test their supports in the coming days. The price action thereafter will need a watch for a reversal. The German Yields are coming down as expected. They have room to fall more. The 10Yr GoI has dipped but sustains well above its support. That keeps the bias positive to see more rise going forward.

Global equities remain mixed as the Dow plunged sharply on rising tariff threats and AI disruption fears and could slip further towards 48,500–48,000. DAX fell against expectations and may test 24,800 before resuming a rise towards 25,400–25,500. Nifty moved higher but needs to break 25,800 to head towards 26,000, otherwise a pullback to 25,400 is possible with a 26,000–25,400 range likely to hold. Nikkei is gradually slipping and can fall towards 57,000–56,500. Shanghai has opened strong after the holiday and may rise further towards 4,150–4,175 while holding above 4,050.

Brent and WTI are rising in line with expectations and can extend gains towards $74–$76 and $68–$70 respectively in the near term. Gold has moved above $5,100, tested $5,257, and remains poised for a further rise towards $5,300–$5,400. Silver continues to move higher and can target $90. Copper has strengthened above $5.80 and can advance towards $6.00–$6.20. Natural Gas has fallen sharply on warmer US weather forecasts and may decline further towards $2.8–$2.6 in the near term.

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25 Feb 26. 0810 IST or 0240 GMT or 2140 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY has dipped contrary to our expectations of seeing a rise. It can fall towards 96 on a break below 97. Euro can dip towards 1.17 and keep immediate trade within 1.18-1.17. EURINR could rise to 108 while above 106.70. EURJPY has dipped from 183. 672 and can fall to 183 while below 184. USDJPY has tested 156 before facing decline from there as expected. A fall to 154-153 could be on the cards before pausing for reversal. USDCNY has fallen and while it sustains below 6.90, a dip to 6.85 looks possible. The Aussie and Pound can rise towards 0.71 and 1.36 respectively. USDINR moved up yesterday to close at 90.9550. If it holds below 91, a dip back towards 90.50 can be possible else, a rise to 91.25/50 could come into the picture.

The US Treasury yields remain lower. They can fall more from here in the near-term and then see a bullish reversal. The German Yields also have room to fall further from here to test their support. The price action thereafter will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has come down below its intermediate support. A near-term fall is possible before the expected rise happens.

Global equities remain mixed, with the Dow edging higher but still biased lower towards 48,500–48,000 in the near term. DAX has risen slightly but a test of 24,800 looks possible for the near term before a recovery towards 25,400–25,500. Nifty continues to show weakness, and unless it sustains above 25,500, a decline towards 25,000–24,900 remains likely. Nikkei has rebounded contrary to expectations and may trade in a broad 58,000–56,000 range for some time. Shanghai has dipped but retains a positive outlook, with scope to rise towards 4,150–4,175 while holding above 4,050.

Brent is struggling near $71 but retains upside potential towards $74–$76 in the coming sessions. WTI has dipped near $66, yet the near-term view stays positive for a rise towards $68–$70. Gold has corrected slightly but continues to hold a bullish outlook targeting $5,300–$5,400. Silver has also eased but remains biased higher with scope to move towards $90. Copper is moving up as expected and can extend gains towards $6.00–$6.20. Natural Gas continues to weaken and may fall further towards $2.80–$2.60 in the near term.

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26 Feb 26. 0824 IST or 0254 GMT or 2154 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY tested 98 before coming off from there. Failure to hold and rise back above 98 could drag the index down towards 97-96.50. Euro on the other hand is holding well above 1.17 and has fair scope for a rise to 1.1850/1.19 while above 1.1750. EURINR is slowly rising towards 108-108.50 while above 107. EURJPY has immediate resistance at 185-185.35 while USDJPY has already tested 156.823, breaking above our mentioned resistance at 186 but has declined back today. If EURJPY and USDJPY holds below their respective resistances, a fall towards 183 & 154/152 can be possible. USDCNY has broken below the crucial support at 6.85 and if the fall sustains, it can soon test 6.80/70. The Aussie and Pound can rise towards 0.71-0.7150 and 1.36-1.3650 respectively. USDINR closed at 90.9525 yesterday. If it holds below 91, a dip back towards 90.50 can be possible else, a rise to 91.25/50 could come into the picture.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. It remains vulnerable to fall further from here before a reversal is seen. The German Yields remain lower and stable. They have room to fall further from here to test their support. The price action thereafter will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has good support which can limit the downside from here. We expect the yield to rise eventually after testing its support.

Dow has moved up but remains below 49,750, keeping the downside risk open towards 48,500–48,000. DAX has bounced back and is likely to stay range-bound between 25,400-25,000 for now. Nifty failed to sustain higher levels and, while below 25,800, can drift lower towards 25,000–24,900. Nikkei surged sharply but faced resistance near 60,000, though the broader rally can extend towards 60,500–61,000. Shanghai moved up as expected and the ongoing rally can extend further towards 4,185–4,200.

Brent and WTI are struggling and may test supports near $70–$69.50 and $65–$64.50 respectively. Both can later bounce back towards $74–$76 and $68–$70 in the coming sessions. Gold remains firm with upside intact towards $5,300–$5,400 in the near term. Silver is rising as expected and can edge higher towards $90. Copper has risen as expected with scope to extend gains towards $6.10–$6.20. Natural gas remains weak and may decline further towards $2.80–$2.60.

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27 Feb 26. 0830 IST or 0300 GMT or 2200 EST

Good Morning!

The DXY has dipped below 98 and a further decline below 97.50 can drag it lower else the upside targets of 98.50/99 remain intact. Euro has declined below 1.18 again and if sustains, can dip towards 1.17/1.16. Trade past 1.18 is needed for a rise towards 1.1850/1.19 which could be delayed at the moment. EURINR is slowly rising towards 108-108.50 while above 107. EURJPY can trade between 185.35-183 for the near term while USDJPY seems to be rising back above 156 which would eventually open doors for 158-160 in the longer run. USDCNY has moved back above 6.85 and needs to sustain for a rise back towards 6.90; else the pair can decline to 6.80 or lower. Watch price action at 6.85.The Aussie and Pound can rise towards 0.71-0.7150 and 1.36-1.3650 respectively. USDINR closed above 90.90 yesterday. If it breaks past 91, a rise to 91.25/50 could come into the picture.

The US Treasury yields and the German Yields are coming down as expected. Both the US and German Yields can fall more from here to test their crucial support. We expect them to reverse higher after testing their support. The 10Yr GoI is holding well above its immediate support. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing a rise. There is not much downside even if the immediate support is broken.

Dow tested 49,872 but the broader view remains negative, with scope to decline towards 48,500–48,000 in the near term. DAX is holding within a 25,400–25,000 range, which is likely to persist for some time. Nifty bounced from near 25,400 but while below 25,800, it can drift lower towards 25,200–25,000 in the coming sessions. Nikkei has immediate support near 58,000, and as long as this holds, a rally towards 61,000–62,000 remains possible. Shanghai has dipped slightly but retains upside potential towards 4,185–4,200 in the coming sessions.

Crude prices remain under pressure amid fluid US–Iran negotiations, with Brent likely to dip towards $70–$69 and WTI retesting $64–$63 before any bounce back. Gold’s bullish structure remains intact, supporting a rise towards $5,300–$5,400. Silver has cleared $90 as expected and can extend gains towards $95–$100 in the coming weeks. Copper continues to hold firm and can move up towards $6.10–$6.20 in the near term. Natural Gas is falling in line with expectations and can decline further towards $2.80–$2.60 in the near term.

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02 Mar 26. 0845 IST or 0315 GMT or 2215 EST

Good Morning!

Escalating war scenarios in the middle east over the weekend has led to a surge in precious metals and Crude oil prices, weakening the dollar slightly. The DXY tested 98.09 initially but has dipped due to rising commodity prices. This has in turn led to a rise in the Euro which can test 1.18-1.1850 in the near term. EURINR can head towards 108-108.50 while EURJPY can test resistance at 185.35 before falling back towards 183 in the medium term. USDJPY has risen above 156 but weakness in the Dollar if seen can limit the upside for the pair. However, on the charts there is scope for 158 while above 156. USDCNY has moved back above 6.85 and needs to sustain for a rise back towards 6.90 and higher eventually.
The Aussie and Pound can rise towards 0.7150 and 1.36-1.3650 respectively. USDINR is likely to open with a gap up today as offshore quotes at 91.20. However, immediate upside could be capped at 91.25/50.

The US Treasury yields remain lower. They have room to fall further from here before witnessing a reversal. The German yields are coming down towards their support as expected. The price action around their support will need a close watch to gauge the next direction of move. The 10Yr GoI is struggling to rise. That keeps it vulnerable for a near-term dip before seeing a rise.

Dow has declined as expected and may extend the fall towards 48,250–48,000. DAX has slipped to the lower end of its 25,400–25,000 range but can hold between 24,800–25,400 as long as support near 24,800 remains intact. Nifty has fallen in line with expectations and can drift towards 25,000 in the near term. Nikkei has broken below 58,000 contrary to our view and may slide further towards 57,000–56,800. Shanghai continues to rise as anticipated and can head towards 4,185–4,200 in the coming sessions.

Crude prices have turned volatile as fresh clashes in the Middle East and fears of disruption through the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices sharply higher. Brent can bounce towards $80–$82 and WTI towards $72–$75 if tensions stay elevated. Gold remains strong and can extend the rise towards $5,400–$5,500. Silver can climb to $95–$100 in the coming weeks. Copper also looks steady with room to rise towards $6.10–$6.20. Natural Gas continues to look weak and may drift lower towards $2.80–$2.60 in the near term.

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