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vsa with Malcolm

  • #36,601
  • Jan 29, 2026 8:25pm Jan 29, 2026 8:25pm
Quoting Doze4u
{image} Sir @Anotan can you pleas upload a template and indicator so we can Download this
I'm away from my pc until tomorrow.

The only indicator I use if e signal wick, which literally just makes the candle bar wicks thicker. If you click on the paper clip at the top of the thread, you'll find the indicator.. Maybe look at better volume too, some people find it helpful. I personally don't use it.
  • #36,602
  • Feb 23, 2026 12:10pm Feb 23, 2026 12:10pm
Quoting Macallik
In three positions after the afternoon breakdown: Might get stopped out of this {image} Looking slightly better {image} Looking good the best so far {image} Also got stopped out of TLT last week and looking to get back in when the dust settles: {image}
Reduced my size drastically and had 3 more stop outs trying to jump in as the markets got more bullish. The last two were really tough breaks where the markets shook me out and then gapped away so I couldn't participate.
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Here's a closer look at my Friday entry. I am up +3R already which essentially wiped out the prior losses:
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I am kinda building the plane while flying it, but the goal is to increase my size and add to this position w/ every test bar on the Daily chart until I get a signal to stop. I mentioned it in the past, but I do think it has the potential to be a very good trade long term, w/ fundamental catalysts that seem relevant at a glance such as a recession/boom-cession, a Trump lackey leading the Feds, AI needing long-term (governmental?) investment, etc.
  • #36,603
  • Feb 23, 2026 2:24pm Feb 23, 2026 2:24pm
Quoting Macallik
Reduced my size drastically and had 3 more stop outs trying to jump in as the markets got more bullish.
Nice work. This is not a criticism, I just wanted to point out a couple of things for everybody else.

If you were to apply the trigger matrix to the highest volume bar, it sets the playing field for price. Once you've identified the strength coming in, you look for price to move above the 50% line (mean threshold). This would allow you to bypass the "chop" and jump aboard the train when it is actually moving in the direction you want to go.

In short, an understanding of trend would allow you to take advantage of the situation and find better entries. The trend isn't just your friend; it's your lover.

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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,604
  • Feb 24, 2026 11:03am Feb 24, 2026 11:03am
This is a response to a PM.

I have tried to be a bit ambiguous in terms of trend definition because there are numerous ways to define a trend. For example, an up trend can be defined as a series of higher highs and higher lows, or it could be defined as price being above a moving average. One can also define an up trend occurring when a certain stochastic measures 50 or above.

There may be as many ways as there are traders. But the question always becomes, "What's the best/correct way?" The answer is the best/correct way is the way that resonates with the trader the most. Ultimately, We all trade our own belief systems. Accordingly, that which best fits your belief system is going to suit you better than something that doesn't.

With that being said, a reasonable starting point would be with a 20 EMA of the midpoint. Keep it simple, stupid. Long above and short below. Therefore, price is in an up trend above the EMA and price is in a down trend when price is below the EMA.
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Take a look at the chart above. Now we have some really clear evidence of when and where we want to be looking to get Long. We placed a trigger matrix on the highest volume bar. Even though the next bar is down, we still see evidence of demand in the first bar. The second bar is clearly effort vs result- its got almost as much volume but nearly half the range. Something must be compressing price. Demand.

With Strength in the background, we want to get long above the 50% line (mean threshold). We also want to get long when price is above the EMA.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,605
  • Feb 24, 2026 11:46am Feb 24, 2026 11:46am
Appreciate the feedback HG. Will carve out some time down the road to backtest the 50% line and see how I feel about it.

On an unrelated note, I think there might be a chance for me to add to my position on the Daily at some time this week potentially (thanks largely to 9 and 13). Gonna do a bar-by-bar of the leadup for my own sanity/context. (I find it's much easier to create a VSA narrative retrospectively than in real time)
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  1. Reduced volume shakeout beyond the prior bar (which was also reduced volume)
  2. EvR as a sign of accumulation
  3. Strong response but supply present
  4. Test and should go higher IMO
  5. Price didn't immediately go higher which was initially concerning but the fact that there's a shakeout beyond the prior bar's lows is a more definitive sign of strength
  6. Strong response to the prior test bar
  7. This is just market makers being mean The only thing things that really point to the next bar being up are strength in the background and a close marginally off the lows (still in the bottom quartile, so it's a reach IMO)
  8. Strong, proud up-bar in response w/ increasing volume. Bulls are taking control more definitively
  9. Market Makers slam the brakes here. Big EvR shift as a sign of concern that needs to be tested away before price continues higher if the move is sustainable. The conspiracy theorist in me says they knew that there would be a ruling on the tariff announcement.
  10. ND + Upthrust w/ weakness in the immediate background
  11. Next bar down confirming the upthrust. Bears are wrestling back control
  12. Test-like bar but weakness in the background. (Very ambiguous and I probably misinterpreted it in real-time)
  13. Strong sign of strength as there is a shakeout through the gap and price closes back inside yesterday's range. The volatility was due to the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. My uneducated guess is that the people that sold @ 9 bought back in here. The fact that it didn't go lower is IMO a sign of aggression/lack of supply.
  14. Attempts to rally away but closes off the highs. It is possible that price will absorb through the resistance level, but unlikely.

My current thought process is that 9 needs to be tested again before price continues higher w/ conviction. If supply is present, then price will head even lower and test 13. I could lock in existing gains and reestablish a position after I see a test, but I would rather keep my existing position w/ the a narrow intraday spread and add to it. We'll see if it is smart or greedy.

  • #36,606
  • Feb 25, 2026 5:40pm Feb 25, 2026 5:40pm
Quoting HiddenGap
This is a response to a PM. I have tried to be a bit ambiguous in terms of trend definition because there are numerous ways to define a trend. For example, an up trend
Hi Hidden Gap, I hope evrrything is going well,

Are you still using Pres78 1H volume bar?

Im using (High-Low)*Volume higher than the previous 15 bars or volume above 50% of the moving average to apply the volume matrix, what do you think?

Thanks
Kind regards
  • #36,607
  • Feb 27, 2026 6:32am Feb 27, 2026 6:32am
Quoting Frag8383
{quote} Hi Hidden Gap, I hope evrrything is going well, Are you still using Pres78 1H volume bar? Im using (High-Low)*Volume higher than the previous 15 bars or volume above 50% of the moving average to apply the volume matrix, what do you think? Thanks Kind regards
Can you show us an example?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #36,608
  • Edited 7:09am Feb 27, 2026 6:48am | Edited 7:09am
It has been two months of choppiness but a VSA story of distribution seems increasingly likely, and also may have possibly concluded w/ the No Demand bar on Wednesday. (Which would cements another lower high):
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NVDA is not just the industry leader in semiconductors, but the hub for "buy AI" thesis as the leading GPU manufacturer and is arguably the only thing keeping the market's head above water. This week, NVDA earnings report lead to a sell-off earlier this week in spite of beating most numbers/expectations. On the prior day, there was clear EvR as markets broke out of the existing range but showed clear signs of EvR and a weak close as they sold into the news. There's clear supply hitting the market in the lead-up and response to the Earnings Report:
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Here's a screenshot from Master The Markets:
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So as the market has become increasingly dependent on the AI trade, what happens to the market when AI starts to clearly distribute? I think it takes the market down with it.

I wouldn't call it likely, but it is possible that there's strong downside momentum today:

  1. Markets down 0.4% in premarket
  2. PPI report due in an hour which could lead to a larger gap lower
  3. Since it's Friday, people might be less interested in carrying risk over the weekend

I've been stalking an (eventual) market breakdown for months and I feel like we might be approaching the end of the beginning, but you never knows w/ markets, so I plan on managing risk and accepting alternative scenarios as the market unfolds.

  • #36,609
  • Edited 7:54am Feb 27, 2026 7:36am | Edited 7:54am
Quoting Macallik
Markets down 0.4% in premarket PPI report due in an hour which could lead to a larger gap lower Since it's Friday, people might be less interested in carrying risk over the weekend I've been stalking an (eventual) market breakdown for months and I feel like we might be approaching the end of the beginning, but you never knows w/ markets, so I plan on managing risk and accepting alternative scenarios as the market unfolds.
PPI print must have been negative as markets are now down ~1% in the premarket.

Another variable I forgot to account for is that a handful of SaaS companies reported after yesterday's close. These companies are uniquely vulnerable to AI in general and can potentially exacerbate selling. Here are a handful of pre-market prints for the industry:

  1. DUOL - Down 27% (reported yesterday)
  2. TEAM - Down 4%
  3. CRM - Down 3% (reported day-before-yesterday)
  4. ZM - Down 2% (reported day-before-yesterday)
  5. NOW - Down 4%
  6. DOCU - Down 3%
  7. APP - Down 3%
  8. INTU - Down 2.5% (reported yesterday)
  9. ADSK - Up 1% (reported yesterday)

  • #36,610
  • Feb 27, 2026 1:55pm Feb 27, 2026 1:55pm
Quoting Frag8383
Are you still using Pres78 1H volume bar?
While the H1 highest volume bar for the last24 hours is still a valid concept, I am not using it. I am using the highest volume bar on the timeframe I am trading.

Quoting Frag8383
I'm using (High-Low)*Volume higher than the previous 15 bars or volume above 50% of the moving average to apply the volume matrix, what do you think? Thanks Kind regards
I'd like to see some examples of this. Ultimately of course, the idea is to identify Significant volume coming into the market.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,611
  • Mar 1, 2026 5:52pm Mar 1, 2026 5:52pm
Hi guys,

Hope you all had a nice weekend¡¡¡¡

This is what I mean,

The Histogram shows a bar that has 1 of the 2:

1- Volume 50% higher than the average volume of the last 30 bars and higher than the previous bar

OR

2- (High - Low)*Volume is the highest of the last 15 bars and volume is higher than the previous bar

Then on the last candle to show one of the conditions a line is draw in the High - Mid - Low
White is when they made a 10 bar low
Black a 10 bar High
Yellow is in between
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Thanks
Kind regards
  • #36,612
  • Mar 2, 2026 12:48pm Mar 2, 2026 12:48pm
Quoting Frag8383
The Histogram shows a bar that has 1 of the 2: 1- Volume 50% higher than the average volume of the last 30 bars and higher than the previous bar OR 2- (High - Low)*Volume is the highest of the last 15 bars and volume is higher than the previous bar Then on the last candle to show one of the conditions a line is draw in the High - Mid - Low White is when they made a 10 bar low Black a 10 bar High Yellow is in between....
Brilliant.

I don't know what I was thinking the first time I read your other post. I do something similar. My volume bars are coded a specific color when:

1. Volume is the highest for the last 20 intervals.
2. Volume is the highest for the last 60 intervals.
3. Volume is the highest for the last 100 intervals.

I am also paying attention to any volume greater than 2.5 SDs of the 20 period volume average.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,613
  • Mar 6, 2026 10:46am Mar 6, 2026 10:46am
More of a quirky realization than anything but:
Inserted Code
The inverse of a hidden test is not a hidden upthrust

My understanding is:

  1. Hidden test = Price extends below the last bar/recent bars and then rejects those levels
  2. Upthrust = Price extends above the last bar/recent bars and then rejects those levels
  3. Hidden Upthrust = Price extends higher but within the range of the last bar/recent bars and then rejects those levels
  4. Test = Price extends lower but within the range of the last bar/recent bars and then rejects those levels

So w/ regards to exchangeable opposites:

  1. Upthrust <-> Hidden Test
  2. Test <-> Hidden Upthrust

  • #36,614
  • Mar 6, 2026 2:55pm Mar 6, 2026 2:55pm
Quoting Macallik
More of a quirky realization than anything but: The inverse of a hidden test is not a hidden upthrust My understanding is: Hidden test = Price extends below the last bar/recent bars and then rejects those levels Upthrust = Price extends above the last bar/recent bars and then rejects those levels Hidden Upthrust = Price extends higher but within the range of the last bar/recent bars and then rejects those levels Test = Price extends lower but within the range of the last bar/recent bars and then rejects those levels So w/ regards to exchangeable...
Heya Macallik, how ya doing?

So lets drop the term hidden for a minute.

Up Thrust is the inverse of a Shake Out.
No Demand Up Thrust is the inverse of a test.

IIRC I don't believe MTM mentions no demand up thrust. It was a term that was used Tom used in his webinars.

A shake out occurs at the lows. Its designed to trigger stops as well as trigger break out traders. A shake out is a violent move, meaning you expect high volume and a wide spread from professionals absorbing stops and break out trades.

A test is testing whether supply has been removed. If supply has been removed, then there are no sellers left to take price down any further. Which means small spread and small volume. The difference between a No Supply and a test is how the bar closes, no supply closes above the mid point but still down. A test closes closer to the open price making it look like a mini pin bar.

The term hidden refers to a Shake Out bar that closes UP. VSA tells us that strength comes in on down bars, so a shake out should be a down bar. But sometimes shakeouts can be soo violent that the bar closes up with all of the buying. Also people will refer to hidden tests, where the test closes on an up bar. You have to be very careful with hidden tests. I would wait for price to rally a bit and not enter on a hidden test.
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  • #36,615
  • Edited 3:47pm Mar 6, 2026 3:24pm | Edited 3:47pm
EURJPY

So we have a hidden shake out. The move was soo aggressively bought that the shake out bar closed UP.

Also we have a hidden test, easily you could argue that hidden test was testing the high of the shake out bar for sellers. In hind sight that hidden test was closer to a no demand allowing price to fall back to the mid point of our hidden shake out. For me, its better to wait to see if price rallies off a hidden test.
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  • #36,616
  • Mar 9, 2026 2:52pm Mar 9, 2026 2:52pm
Quoting Macallik
.. So w/ regards to exchangeable opposites: Upthrust <-> Hidden Test Test <-> Hidden Upthrust
Anotan delivered a masterful response, but I just wanted to add a couple of things.

UTIFOND: Up Thrust (in the form of No Demand)

Not in Tom's book, but he mentioned then in his webinars. The element that makes an Up Thrust an Up Thrust in the form of No Demand, is the volume. Volume will be less than the previous two bars. Accordingly, this is the reason that an Up Trust isn't the opposite of a test. A normal Up Thrust will typically have an increasing range (that makes a higher high than the previous interval) and increasing volume, closing Up and closing in the bottom 25% of its range. A normal test comes on decreasing volume. Preferably less than the previous two intervals.

While the Up Trust and Test share a couple of "opposite" characteristics, like a higher high than the previous bar for an Up Thrust and a lower low than the previous bar for a Test, and a close in the 25% range for an Up Thrust and a close in the 75% range for a Test. (on a different note, where do these percentages appear? LOL) The difference in volume makes it erroneous to call them exchangeable opposites.

A better way to think of it would be the opposite of an Up Thrust is either a Down Thrust or Spring.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,617
  • Mar 26, 2026 6:47am Mar 26, 2026 6:47am
I wanna start w/ a disclaimer that I have at times gotten too excited about potential moves prematurely, so do your own DD and recognize this isn't financial advice.

With that out of the way, IMO things are lining up to be a perfect (shit)storm. Strongly contemplating increasing size (while also gameplanning some descalation strategies if I'm early/incorrect).

So far in 2026, there's an inverse relationship across the globe re: Market Indexes and Oil prices:
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From a VSA perspective the Oil picture is starting to look increasingly bullish on the Weekly:
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And drilling down to the daily, the attempted downward pressure is not drawing out supply:
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OTOH, the S&P 500 is looking increasingly weak:
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The Trump administration is too boisterous/hawkish and ready to hammer others to show strength and it thinks Iran looks like a nail. News broke overnight that things are likely to escalate over the coming days unless they are bluffing to de-escalate. If so, I don't think the markets have factored this uncertainty accurately since VSA is saying things are potentially gearing up for a big move.
  • #36,618
  • Mar 26, 2026 8:34pm Mar 26, 2026 8:34pm
Quoting Macallik
I wanna start w/ a disclaimer that I have at times gotten too excited about potential moves prematurely, so do your own DD and recognize this isn't financial advice. With that out of the way, IMO things are lining up to be a perfect (shit)storm. Strongly contemplating increasing size (while also gameplanning some descalation strategies if I'm early/incorrect). So far in 2026, there's an inverse...
It does look like there is some weakness there. But also see there is some strength on daily oil as price fell.

Also you're building a narrative for the weakness that you're seeing, which isn't good. Going into why you think the weakness is there and also talking about increasing your risk is a super dangerous situation.

You're putting added weight behind your analysis along with increased risk, what happens if this trade doesn't work out? Treat this just like any other trade, if it works then great, if not then move on to the next.

If you want to increase your risk, keep your initial risk the same and add to it as price proves you right.
  • #36,619
  • Edited 9:32am Mar 27, 2026 8:55am | Edited 9:32am
Great advice as always Anotan.

I already have puts on SPY (and calls on energy-related stocks) so I am increasing risk by adding to existing positions like you suggested fwiw. My risk per trade is the same but my entry was a lot more aggressive given the price action...

As an analogy, let's say initially I bought 1 contract and had a $100 stop. When I added to the position, I bought 3 contracts w/ a $0.33 stop. Both positions are risking $100/ea but the second one will be more leveraged and will pay better as the market goes in my favor (Worth noting I encounter more trades that rally just past my stop and then immediately selloff, and I have been burned on an overnight gap or two higher)

I have already tried to add to positions like 4-5x. Given the volatility of the past 1-2 weeks, I've been shaken out 2-3x but the positions that are profitable are many multiples of the stop outs, so the stop outs are now just the price of admission. (I have been sloppy w/ some of my non SPY/energy entries admittedly so I can tighten that up in the future)

Re: the markets, I am of the mind that we may not revisit these levels for months given the economic backdrop. I know I keep drawing back to the fundamentals which is a no-no for VSA typically, but I think that when VSA and the fundamentals are singing the same note, its akin to multiple timeframes telling the same narrative in VSA and a good time to take calculated/measured outsized bets. Until I see a change in the background, I am of the mind to fade every rally until we get a selloff so big that it has its own wikipedia page like Flash Crash/Black Monday/etc.

I have more confidence now than when I started establishing my initial positions, but in retrospect, the VSA chart is picture-esque/textbook. (Trading through it in real time has been a lot harder admittedly lol). Tom talked about fading weak up bars and 6 of the last 8 up days show unmistakable weakness:
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  • #36,620
  • Mar 27, 2026 5:18pm Mar 27, 2026 5:18pm
Quoting Macallik
Great advice as always Anotan. I already have puts on SPY (and calls on energy-related stocks) so I am increasing risk by adding to existing positions like you suggested fwiw. My risk per trade is the same but my entry was a lot more aggressive given the price action... As an analogy, let's say initially I bought 1 contract and had a $100 stop. When I added to the position, I bought 3 contracts w/ a $0.33 stop. Both positions are risking $100/ea but the second one will be more leveraged and will pay better as the market goes in my favor (Worth noting...
Oh ok! My apologies, I misunderstood when you said increase risk.

It sounds like you're doing everything right and finding your way

I think a big thing with trading is understanding market behavior, choppy markets, price like to return to volume and trending markets, price liked to move away from volume. I know you've figured out market behavior doesn't change overnight, forex has been running trends since December and price loves to move away from volume, where as last summer price was choppy and eager to return to volume.

Trade your market, you'll figure out if price is returning to volume or running from it.
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