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Let's Trade Options

  • #20,121
  • Jan 28, 2026 11:30am Jan 28, 2026 11:30am
Quoting Vowwow
{quote} - how the week started vs how trades ended on Tuesday
sweet! so you are out of the /ES longs?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,122
  • Jan 28, 2026 11:32am Jan 28, 2026 11:32am
Quoting Vowwow
Let’s see what fomc brings today
my best guess for the week was we would run up in SPX & NDX until the FOMC, at least, then there would be a bit of a negative reaction to a more than expected hawkish FOMC on Wed. Traded accordingly & made some money on NDX call flys, so far. Earnings reactions in the mix with FOMC today and tomorrow, will be interesting. Good luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,123
  • Jan 28, 2026 11:41am Jan 28, 2026 11:41am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}sweet! so you are out of the /ES longs?
yes, all closed on jan27 market close
  • #20,124
  • Jan 28, 2026 12:30pm Jan 28, 2026 12:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Earnings reactions in the mix with FOMC today and tomorrow, will be interesting. Good luck.
rate hold @ FOMC a given, but maybe something out of the presser will move markets. Whole thing could be a nothing burger, also.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,125
  • Jan 28, 2026 12:37pm Jan 28, 2026 12:37pm
small bets on a downturn....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,126
  • Jan 28, 2026 12:38pm Jan 28, 2026 12:38pm
Double Calendar for META earnings,
-630 Jan 30 +630 Feb 02 puts
-710 Jan 30 +710 Feb 02 calls
1.60 DB Yesterday.
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  • #20,127
  • Jan 28, 2026 2:01pm Jan 28, 2026 2:01pm
Quoting CanDiscipln
Double Calendar for META earnings, -630 Jan 30 +630 Feb 02 puts -710 Jan 30 +710 Feb 02 calls 1.60 DB Yesterday.
I used to play those calendars for earnings alot, but no more. The best repeatable results I had generally involved getting in the spread b4 iv's had run up, and getting ou at peak iv, just before the ER. Good luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,128
  • Jan 28, 2026 2:06pm Jan 28, 2026 2:06pm
Nice! I have only started actively trading options for the last year, so this is my first time doing a double calendar. Ultimately, my long options just need to be worth more than 1.60 tomorrow, looking for an inside move.
  • #20,129
  • Jan 28, 2026 2:33pm Jan 28, 2026 2:33pm
On a daily or weekly chart of META, you can plot the iv - there is a rise in iv into the earnings report (ER) and then a crash in iv right after. This is one of the most predictable things in options trading. Calender values will dramatically fall when the iv's crash. Just remember that for future reference. You can model the fall in iv's to see the result on the P/L of any trade. It looks like iv's are falling 10-20% in the days after the ERs....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,130
  • Jan 28, 2026 2:39pm Jan 28, 2026 2:39pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}rate hold @ FOMC a given, but maybe something out of the presser will move markets. Whole thing could be a nothing burger, also.
yep, nothing burger....back to earnings watch.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,131
  • Jan 28, 2026 3:02pm Jan 28, 2026 3:02pm
Quoting The Fool
On a daily or weekly chart of META, you can plot the iv - there is a rise in iv into the earnings report (ER) and then a crash in iv right after. This is one of the most predictable things in options trading. Calender values will dramatically fall when the iv's crash. Just remember that for future reference. You can model the fall in iv's to see the result on the P/L of any trade. It looks like iv's are falling 10-20% in the days after the ERs.... {image}
Absolutely, I've tried to mitigate this by putting the calendar just inside of the expected move so that when IV crush occurs, my long options are not as affected as if they were placed towards the tail ends. Even with a 10% IV crush, looking to take a $70-100 winner if it is an inside move.
  • #20,132
  • Jan 28, 2026 3:10pm Jan 28, 2026 3:10pm
Quoting CanDiscipln
{quote} Absolutely, I've tried to mitigate this by putting the calendar just inside of the expected move so that when IV crush occurs, my long options are not as affected as if they were placed towards the tail ends. Even with a 10% IV crush, looking to take a $70-100 winner if it is an inside move.
can you trade after hours?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,133
  • Jan 28, 2026 3:11pm Jan 28, 2026 3:11pm
Nope, I'll have to wait until tommorow.
  • #20,134
  • Jan 28, 2026 3:19pm Jan 28, 2026 3:19pm
Quoting CanDiscipln
Nope, I'll have to wait until tommorow.
Good luck then. I have a lot of short action running, might have to bail those for losses tomorrow. Not seeing anything to slow the rally, yet.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,135
  • Jan 28, 2026 4:51pm Jan 28, 2026 4:51pm
Yea... looking decent right now but we'll see where they open tommorow. The best would be a small sell-off into the open tommmorow or later today.
  • #20,136
  • Jan 28, 2026 5:05pm Jan 28, 2026 5:05pm
In addition, looks like it moved well outside its expected move of +-40 points.
Great for my long 700 call.
  • #20,137
  • Jan 29, 2026 5:41am Jan 29, 2026 5:41am
TSLA a shit show here soon if bears hold it <445
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  • #20,138
  • Jan 29, 2026 8:58am Jan 29, 2026 8:58am
Ongoing puts
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  • #20,139
  • Jan 29, 2026 9:17am Jan 29, 2026 9:17am
Quoting Vowwow
Ongoing puts {image}
closed puts
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  • #20,140
  • Jan 29, 2026 9:22am Jan 29, 2026 9:22am
Quoting Vowwow
{quote} closed puts {image}
dude you're crushing it, making more in a day than I clear in a year lol. Do you trade any other names, or do you ever trade the options on futures?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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